Are the Cardinals the Real Deal?? Predictions & Analysis

[chris98251]

DVOA is just a tool, if you trust it to make all your decisions then it's just a Fantasy league you're really looking at, the reason people truly love the NFL is it's rivalries and unpredictable nature. Last night if you thought that DVOA was going to secure you a win automatically you have not been paying attention. History has shown rivalry games are the most dramatic and unpredictable, throw in MNF and it gets really crazy. Look at the games the Seahawks alone have been in if you don't believe me.

 

[Polaris]

DVOA is just a tool, if you trust it to make all your decisions then it's just a Fantasy league you're really looking at, the reason people truly love the NFL is it's rivalries and unpredictable nature. Last night if you thought that DVOA was going to secure you a win automatically you have not been paying attention. History has shown rivalry games are the most dramatic and unpredictable, throw in MNF and it gets really crazy. Look at the games the Seahawks alone have been in if you don't believe me.

Arrgh. I am not claiming that DVOA is a perfect nor a predictive measure. In fact I've said quite the contrary. However, over the past decade and a half, it's turned out to be an excellent measuring stick to determine if a team is really good, or just really lucky. So getting back to the OP's question, are the Cardinals for real? I am using DVOA as a tool to indicate that they are not. I feel quite justified in taking this (obviously unpopular) position.

 

[ringless]

Just thought I'd post an interesting quote I read today. A question was asked about if the Cardinals are lucky today... The response was below...

I think you can say that about many teams. After awhile, when the luck happens over and over and over, when does it stop being about luck, and start being that phase "luck is the residue of hard work"?

 

[Polaris]

Just thought I'd post an interesting quote I read today. A question was asked about if the Cardinals are lucky today... The response was below...

I think you can say that about many teams. After awhile, when the luck happens over and over and over, when does it stop being about luck, and start being that phase "luck is the residue of hard work"?

That's the question, though. How do we distinguish between genuine luck (aka non-predictive events) and technique that might appear to be luck. That's why I lean so heavily on DVOA with over a decade's worth of experience and data that help tell us what sort of football plays are predictive and what aren't. Right now it appears that much of the Cardinal's success revolves around things that aren't predictive, sustainable, or both.

To put it another way, just because you flip a coin heads fifty times in a row doesn't necessarily mean the coin-flip is rigged (i.e. a non-random event) nor does it mean that the next flip is anything other than 50-50.

 

[ringless]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/mayocks-slant ... p-football

This is a great video! I highly suggest checking it out! The breakdowns are fantastic, and it was mainly rookies making the big plays! I think this really shows a lot of the discipline I was talking about with some of the players. Like Stinson who is a rookie, running 30-40 yds total to chase down a W/R and cause a fumble. How many DL would make this happen like this?

 

[ringless]

Coach Bruce Arians said the last 3 weeks have been the best practices he has ever seen in his 30 years of coaching. The Offense should start to click if we can stop leading the league in drops.

In the last 2 weeks (this is the third) our red zone percentage went from being 32nd to being 2nd in the league over the last 3 games. If our Defense can perform at the level it has, and our offense can finally start clicking like we expected, then this team may only get better.... More offense, could lead to a better defense. Time will tell. But that is a pretty strong thing to say. The players are saying the same thing, and that they can't wait to get practice as everything is becoming more fluid

 

[chris98251]

Arians has them believing in themselves, until they get into a game where things get dicey and someone finds a hole in the scheme they run and someone will, you have to go with what they are.

 

[RedAlice]

Arians has them believing in themselves, until they get into a game where things get dicey and someone finds a hole in the scheme they run and someone will, you have to go with what they are.

When that happens, it will be a division opponent.

@Ringless: Same thing you asked me. Your opinion of the Az boards, and which one do you post at?

And, what nic do you use at an AZ board? Ringless doesn't seem like a good one for there. I use my same nic at all boards, but I know others don't.

 

[ringless]

Arians has them believing in themselves, until they get into a game where things get dicey and someone finds a hole in the scheme they run and someone will, you have to go with what they are.

When that happens, it will be a division opponent.

@Ringless: Same thing you asked me. Your opinion of the Az boards, and which one do you post at?

And, what nic do you use at an AZ board? Ringless doesn't seem like a good one for there. I use my same nic at all boards, but I know others don't.

I post at the official board. A cardinals.com/forums I believe it is and use the name Tango. Im always cautiously optimistic on the boards except this week I've had a hard time of containing my excitement. A lot of people tend to disagree with me on the boards because while I see a lot of great things about the team. There are a ton of red flags and I feel we may be the 5th best team realistically and not the number 1.

There are some great posters over there. Cardinalspalmer is actually a friend of palmers since middle school and very close to the Palmer family.

Azcardsanalysis is another great poster. I've had some
Differences with desertdawg, and kerryrhodes just because I'm not convinced we are the best team. Most of them are pretty down to earth when visitors come on board and can have good discussions. A lot of that is we are so use to losing, or finding ways to blow great situations that some people are waiting for the other shoe to drop. But the board is the most optimistic I've ever seen it so of course everyone is a little more excited in each passing week. Would love to see over there. It's not as busy as this board or the 49ers of course.

 

[RedAlice]

Arians has them believing in themselves, until they get into a game where things get dicey and someone finds a hole in the scheme they run and someone will, you have to go with what they are.

When that happens, it will be a division opponent.

@Ringless: Same thing you asked me. Your opinion of the Az boards, and which one do you post at?

And, what nic do you use at an AZ board? Ringless doesn't seem like a good one for there. I use my same nic at all boards, but I know others don't.

I post at the official board. A cardinals.com/forums I believe it is and use the name Tango. Im always cautiously optimistic on the boards except this week I've had a hard time of containing my excitement. A lot of people tend to disagree with me on the boards because while I see a lot of great things about the team. There are a ton of red flags and I feel we may be the 5th best team realistically and not the number 1.

There are some great posters over there. Cardinalspalmer is actually a friend of palmers since middle school and very close to the Palmer family.

Azcardsanalysis is another great poster. I've had some
Differences with desertdawg, and kerryrhodes just because I'm not convinced we are the best team. Most of them are pretty down to earth when visitors come on board and can have good discussions. A lot of that is we are so use to losing, or finding ways to blow great situations that some people are waiting for the other shoe to drop. But the board is the most optimistic I've ever seen it so of course everyone is a little more excited in each passing week. Would love to see over there. It's not as busy as this board or the 49ers of course.

\\

Just read ths. Tango actually matches you, so yay for you being the same there as you are here.

I've been registeerd and have posted there awhile. But Hot 17 or whatever has gone on his ramgage, and I do not have enough time this week to hop in.

I will.

Going to pretty much be wtih Cards fans all day tomorrow. Me and my Rams tshirt.


yay.