Are the Cardinals the Real Deal?? Predictions & Analysis

[Polaris]

The Lions are better than Arizona? The same Lions who lost to the Panthers and Bills (at home) and who should have lost to a pretty bad Falcons team yesterday.

Week 7 DVOA for the Lions (which includes all these factors and more): +5.9%
Week 7 DVOA for Arizona: 0.6%

0.0% is the baseline for a replacement level team (i.e. 8-8)

 

[ringless]

I agree with the OP. The Cards remaining schedule is not nearly as favorable as what they've had so far. I see 9-7, maybe10-6 in their future.

Yeah but given they've already beat the Niners AND Eagles. Games in the off-season most thought they'd go 1-1 or even 0-2. I think outside of epic collapse. Niners and Hawks are going to be fighting for the only wildcard spot the NFCW may or may not get. Bottom line, we CANNOT lose to the Eagles, and unless the NIners beat the Cards AND we sweep the Cards as well. I think we're gonna need to sweep the Niners.

Good thing is as long as the first half team that player TB last year doesn't show up this Sunday. Hopefully this team can get some more of its swagger back against the Raiders before heading into the brutal stretch of the rest of this season.

Yeah, but the Cards had no business winning the game yesterday. The Eagles outplayed them. Now I grant that a win is a win, yadda yadda, but that just highlights how terrible the Eagle's secondary is. The same story goes for their win against the Chargers in week one. The Cards didn't win it so much that Rivers in a couple of inexplicable brain farts lost it late.

As for San Fran, IIRC that was in Phoenix (it makes a difference). I doubt that the Cards beat the Niners again at their place.

My take on the Cards is that they are about a 0.500 talent team that deliberately takes a lot of chances and tries to 'muck it up' knowing that the uglier the game is, the more chances they get to overcome a relative lack of talent.

Looking at the Card's remaining schedule, here's my take:

@Dallas (10am): Loss. Dallas is playing the sort of game that is difficult to 'muck up' by putting it on Murray's shoulders.
St Louis (1pm): Win. Mind you the Cards could easily lose this game,but it's at home and the Cards are a better team.
Detroit (1pm): Loss. I see a game/matchup here much like the Philly matchup. Detroit right now is the better team.
@Seattle (1pm): Loss. We'll be a LOT healthier than we are now, and it is IN SEATTLE. I don't see the Cards stealing one from the Clink two years running.
@Atlanta (1pm): Win. Cards are better than Atlanta
KC (1pm): Loss. KC is a low mistake, rush oriented offense that tends to give Arizona fits.
@St Louis (Thurs): Loss. Playing on the Road, short weak vs physical team. I could see the Cards pulling this one out, and they are better than the Rams, but I favor home teams on Thurs.
Seattle (PRIMETIME!): Loss. Seattle doesn't lose in the primetime Sunday Slot.
@San Fran (1pm): Loss [This would complete the split vs the Niners]

Now if it all happens like I said above, that would give the Cards an 8-8 season, but I think the Cards will finish a bit better than that, so I'm going with 9-7 MAYBE 10-6 but no better than that. I don't think a lot of people realize just how weak the Card's schedule has been so far.

How much more business did you guys have beating Carolina yesterday? I feel like they dominated most of the game. Seahawks haven't really been impressive in their wins or losses...

You have us losing the last 5 games of the season? I just don't see an Arians coached team going on a 5 game losing streak... I think we finish 10-6 at worst, and 11-5 at best. I think we have a great shot of beating you guys at home in my opinion.

Our schedule has included in the first games. SD, Den, SF, and Phi... All great teams supposedly. The schedule is hard for all of our teams because almost all of the divisional games between SF, Sea, and AZ are in the back half.. A lot of beating up on each other to come!

 

[ringless]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

I disagree with you. Having seen both the Cards, Detriot, and KC, I'd put KC and Detroit above the Cards. KC does have a passing game (albeit a short one and it's not all the great).

It's not just me. Football Outsider's DVOA is a good eyeball I've found of which team is better or worse right now when as many factors as possible are accounted for. As of week 7, Arizona's DVOA is a paltry 0.6% which is terrible for a 6-1 team and it shows that an epic fall is coming (same as KC's fall last year under similiar conditions). Compare that with a DVOA of 9.9% for KC and 5.1% for Detroit.

So I stand by what I said above.

Comparing us to KC last year is much different... KC hadn't played a team with a winning record until week 10... We have played teams with winning records. I still think we win 10 games this year, maybe 11.. I just don't see the 8-8 you project right now considering we already have 6 wins.

 

[ringless]

Anyways,
I think people that are saying 12-4 are overestimating our capabilities at this point. I just don't see a team that good. That's a special team to me, and I guess part of that is I've never experienced it. I think we do make the playoffs, I think we will find ways to win some more games that we have no business in.

The thing about this team is it does seem the players go 100% on every play. The fumble yesterday was caused by Stinson, a rookie 2nd string player playing to the whistle and chasing down a WR....

The team isn't afraid to go for the throat.... Unlike the opposite the 49ers, who go conservative when they have a small lead late. They aren't afraid to go for it on 4th and short anywhere on the field because they trust the players to get those 6 inches..... They aren't afraid to play cover zero when it's the final drive of the game.

I see a team that is lacking talent, but makes up for it by playing as a team. They don't seem to care about individual stats, and some of them have said the coaching staff has helped them get over that mindset to sacrifice for the betterment of the team. I think we get 10, or 11 wins in saying all of that. End up with the #2 seed, or #3 at best.

 

[Polaris]

I agree with the OP. The Cards remaining schedule is not nearly as favorable as what they've had so far. I see 9-7, maybe10-6 in their future.

Yeah but given they've already beat the Niners AND Eagles. Games in the off-season most thought they'd go 1-1 or even 0-2. I think outside of epic collapse. Niners and Hawks are going to be fighting for the only wildcard spot the NFCW may or may not get. Bottom line, we CANNOT lose to the Eagles, and unless the NIners beat the Cards AND we sweep the Cards as well. I think we're gonna need to sweep the Niners.

Good thing is as long as the first half team that player TB last year doesn't show up this Sunday. Hopefully this team can get some more of its swagger back against the Raiders before heading into the brutal stretch of the rest of this season.

Yeah, but the Cards had no business winning the game yesterday. The Eagles outplayed them. Now I grant that a win is a win, yadda yadda, but that just highlights how terrible the Eagle's secondary is. The same story goes for their win against the Chargers in week one. The Cards didn't win it so much that Rivers in a couple of inexplicable brain farts lost it late.

As for San Fran, IIRC that was in Phoenix (it makes a difference). I doubt that the Cards beat the Niners again at their place.

My take on the Cards is that they are about a 0.500 talent team that deliberately takes a lot of chances and tries to 'muck it up' knowing that the uglier the game is, the more chances they get to overcome a relative lack of talent.

Looking at the Card's remaining schedule, here's my take:

@Dallas (10am): Loss. Dallas is playing the sort of game that is difficult to 'muck up' by putting it on Murray's shoulders.
St Louis (1pm): Win. Mind you the Cards could easily lose this game,but it's at home and the Cards are a better team.
Detroit (1pm): Loss. I see a game/matchup here much like the Philly matchup. Detroit right now is the better team.
@Seattle (1pm): Loss. We'll be a LOT healthier than we are now, and it is IN SEATTLE. I don't see the Cards stealing one from the Clink two years running.
@Atlanta (1pm): Win. Cards are better than Atlanta
KC (1pm): Loss. KC is a low mistake, rush oriented offense that tends to give Arizona fits.
@St Louis (Thurs): Loss. Playing on the Road, short weak vs physical team. I could see the Cards pulling this one out, and they are better than the Rams, but I favor home teams on Thurs.
Seattle (PRIMETIME!): Loss. Seattle doesn't lose in the primetime Sunday Slot.
@San Fran (1pm): Loss [This would complete the split vs the Niners]

Now if it all happens like I said above, that would give the Cards an 8-8 season, but I think the Cards will finish a bit better than that, so I'm going with 9-7 MAYBE 10-6 but no better than that. I don't think a lot of people realize just how weak the Card's schedule has been so far.

How much more business did you guys have beating Carolina yesterday? I feel like they dominated most of the game. Seahawks haven't really been impressive in their wins or losses...

You have us losing the last 5 games of the season? I just don't see an Arians coached team going on a 5 game losing streak... I think we finish 10-6 at worst, and 11-5 at best. I think we have a great shot of beating you guys at home in my opinion.

Our schedule has included in the first games. SD, Den, SF, and Phi... All great teams supposedly. The schedule is hard for all of our teams because almost all of the divisional games between SF, Sea, and AZ are in the back half.. A lot of beating up on each other to come!

Appearances can be and often are deceiving. For the record, Carolina absolutely dominated the first quarter, but it was Seattle in a dominant position the rest of the game. Look at he stats after the first quarter and after each subsequent quarter, and you quickly will see what I mean. This wasn't a fluke play or anything like that led to a Seattle win. Instead it was Seattle that was finally able to leverage superior play to get the win. Not only that but look how in the end Seattle did it. They very leisurely dominated Carolina and did a near-perfect 4 minute offense to minimize any chance of a lucky Carolina play to reverse it. [By contrast it was the Eagles that pretty clearly dominated most of that game with a couple of lucky Arizona plays including that last TD.]

This is why I trust football outsiders DVOA rather than my own eyes. DVOA accounts for all the teams and all the players in a neutral mathematical fashion. By that standard, the Cardinals are basically a lucky 8-8 team.

I am standing by my 9-7 prediction, but 10-6 wouldn't shock me given that the Cards already have 6 wins, but I'm not buying the Cards. Beat Dallas next week on the road and we'll talk.

 

[FreshlySnipes]

Here's the problem with sweeping the Cards:

Seahawks haven't done that in how many years? I haven't checked the web, but can only imagine it would be pre-Carroll.

Any given Sunday but you gotta be realistic with expectations.

Sweeping the Cardinals year in and year out save for a season or two was an underrated accomplishment of the 49ers, and already they will not be doing that this year. I would be shocked to see Seattle do it, unless Arizona was sitting at 12-2 by that time that games comes along, just looking to coast.

Seahawks have to turn a lot around before thinking a win @KC, and @ PHI are foregone conclusions. KC and PHI nearly beat SF and PHI could have easily beat AZ (and I think KC will give AZ a tough game as well). And those teams did that on the road.

True we havnt swept them for a while but I still feel like we are due. They are SO HOTT RIGHT NOW but I highly doubt they will be on a heater for the rest of the year. I think that we will get on our heater in the next few weeks and be back to our style of Championship football just in time for a playoff push. We should have beaten them last year at home. That game was a fluke. I dont see them beating us at home again this year. We just gotta get our SWAG back.

I think the Panthers game was the beginning of our hott streak because we got 2 easy teams coming up (Raiders & Giants, Both @ Home). So after winning 3 in a row we should have our SWAG and Confidence back.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

At least 11-5. They're good and also seem to have the football Gods on their sideline as well (see yesterday).

 

[Polaris]

They are better than Detroit and playing at home. Why does everyone chalk that up as a loss?

They have a legitimate shot at beating Seattle twice because they can stop the run and this team has only one win without getting the run game of any kind going.

KC? Once again, a game at home where Arizona is the better team. KC has no passing game and ARI has one of the best run defenses. Another game that Arizona can win.

Philadelphia was the game I thought they would lose. Dallas has been relying on the run a lot but they can actually throw the ball and it's in Dallas, even though it's not much of a home-field advantage.

This team has a legitimate shot at 13-3, I'll put my money on 12-4 at worst.

I disagree with you. Having seen both the Cards, Detriot, and KC, I'd put KC and Detroit above the Cards. KC does have a passing game (albeit a short one and it's not all the great).

It's not just me. Football Outsider's DVOA is a good eyeball I've found of which team is better or worse right now when as many factors as possible are accounted for. As of week 7, Arizona's DVOA is a paltry 0.6% which is terrible for a 6-1 team and it shows that an epic fall is coming (same as KC's fall last year under similiar conditions). Compare that with a DVOA of 9.9% for KC and 5.1% for Detroit.

So I stand by what I said above.

Comparing us to KC last year is much different... KC hadn't played a team with a winning record until week 10... We have played teams with winning records. I still think we win 10 games this year, maybe 11.. I just don't see the 8-8 you project right now considering we already have 6 wins.

It's not that much different really. The 'good' teams the Cards have beaten have been beaten by what you can clearly see are statistical anomalies (i.e. luck). Basically if you just look at the play by play grading, Arizona is simply not that good but has gotten the lucky break....but luck evens out. However, with six wins already in the bag, I do seem them going 9-7 (not 8-8). 10-6 wouldn't shock me, but ultimately I still think the NFCW is going to come down to a battle between Seattle and San Fran.

 

[Polaris]

At least 11-5. They're good and also seem to have the football Gods on their sideline as well (see yesterday).

I'm not seeing that they are that good. I agree that they're lucky, but luck evens out.

 

[kearly]

Arizona had a significantly better DVOA last year when they finished 10-6. I think they very well might finish 12-4 this year, but that doesn't mean they are a true 12 win team.

I can't feel too upset though. Arians and his staff have coached their asses off the last two seasons. If Carroll had Arians knack for over-achieving the Hawks would be damn near unstoppable.

 

[el capitan]

This is why I don't put too much stock in DVOA, I'm sure it has it's uses but it doesn't explain how the Redskins beat the Cowboys or how Tampa Bay won in Pittsburgh or how the Bills beat the Lions on the road.
If the Cardinals finish the season with just 4 losses with the schedule they have then I don't see how they will not be a true 12 win team.
I like their chances of having 9 wins before they play us.

 

[Polaris]

This is why I don't put too much stock in DVOA, I'm sure it has it's uses but it doesn't explain how the Redskins beat the Cowboys or how Tampa Bay won in Pittsburgh or how the Bills beat the Lions on the road.
If the Cardinals finish the season with just 4 losses with the schedule they have then I don't see how they will not be a true 12 win team.
I like their chances of having 9 wins before they play us.

Then you are missing a great deal. I don't ask DVOA to explain why teams that aren't as good sometimes beat superior teams. It's called variance, or in NFL terms, "Any Given Sunday", but I have found it's an excellent guide for determining which teams are in fact better at any given point in the season. This attitude is like saying that advanced sabermetrics has no use in baseball.....and we all know differently.

Basically what I am saying...and what DVOA says is that the Cards have gotten their record largely by smoke and mirrors. That's fine to a point: No one is asking the Cards to give them back after all. But it does strongly indicate that there will be a regression to mean in the Card's future.

 

[FreshlySnipes]

Arizona had a significantly better DVOA last year when they finished 10-6. I think they very well might finish 12-4 this year, but that doesn't mean they are a true 12 win team.

I can't feel too upset though. Arians and his staff have coached their asses off the last two seasons. If Carroll had Arians knack for over-achieving the Hawks would be damn near unstoppable.

You don't think Pete Carroll is an over achiever?? How many BCS Championships or Super Bowl rings does he need to be considered an over achiever (in a positive way)?? Ohhh u define an over achiever by no championship rings and a 6-1 start. Gotcha... I'll pass on that... I'll take the Championships thanks!

 

[NINEster]

Still too much homerism here to suggest a sweep of Arizona is realistic.

Based on the way the two teams are currently playing I'd argue the opposite is more realistic. However, I've watched football for a long time now to know that division sweeps of decent teams are very difficult. I've been surprised the 49ers have been able to do that to the Cardinals more often than not, and certainly don't expect it as a given.

Of course, never say never. The 5-11 2011 Redskins swept the SB champion Giants that year.

 

[Polaris]

Still too much homerism here to suggest a sweep of Arizona is realistic.

Based on the way the two teams are currently playing I'd argue the opposite is more realistic. However, I've watched football for a long time now to know that division sweeps of decent teams are very difficult. I've been surprised the 49ers have been able to do that to the Cardinals more often than not, and certainly don't expect it as a given.

Of course, never say never. The 5-11 2011 Redskins swept the SB champion Giants that year.

I wouldn't say we are saying that sweeping the Cardinals is a given, but if you look at the schedule, timing, and location of the games, I think it is a reasonable prediction. I don't believe the Cards will be able to steal one in Seattle two years running (even doing it last year required an extremely flukey game that had Palmer intercepted four times and still winning), and the game at Arizona is not only late (when Seattle should be relatively healthy) but in Sunday PRIME TIME and Seattle simply doesn't lose in prime time.

 

[redbird]

Been lurking for awhile but figured I'd finally join up.

In regards to the Cards, how many 'lucky' plays can a team make before it's not called luck anymore? Doesn't that come down to good execution at some point? I realize that this is more of a matter of perspective and most fans of opposing teams (especially in the division) will think other teams have lucky plays/wins.

Anyways I'm really looking forward to the end of the season between the 9ers/Hawks/Cards as those final games should feel like playoff games as long as the teams can stay relatively healthy.

 

[Polaris]

Been lurking for awhile but figured I'd finally join up.

In regards to the Cards, how many 'lucky' plays can a team make before it's not called luck anymore? Doesn't that come down to good execution at some point? I realize that this is more of a matter of perspective and most fans of opposing teams (especially in the division) will think other teams have lucky plays/wins.

Anyways I'm really looking forward to the end of the season between the 9ers/Hawks/Cards as those final games should feel like playoff games as long as the teams can stay relatively healthy.

To answer your question, never. Sometimes lucky plays are simply lucky plays no matter who does them. Fumble recoveries is such a case (just for example). A team can be (and often are) better or worse at forcing fumbles, but fumble recovery by a given team seems random. Likewise long bombs and other 1-2 play scoring drives is more luck than not.

 

[SonicHawk]

Been lurking for awhile but figured I'd finally join up.

In regards to the Cards, how many 'lucky' plays can a team make before it's not called luck anymore? Doesn't that come down to good execution at some point? I realize that this is more of a matter of perspective and most fans of opposing teams (especially in the division) will think other teams have lucky plays/wins.

Anyways I'm really looking forward to the end of the season between the 9ers/Hawks/Cards as those final games should feel like playoff games as long as the teams can stay relatively healthy.

To answer your question, never. Sometimes lucky plays are simply lucky plays no matter who does them. Fumble recoveries is such a case (just for example). A team can be (and often are) better or worse at forcing fumbles, but fumble recovery by a given team seems random. Likewise long bombs and other 1-2 play scoring drives is more luck than not.

Long plays are not luck. Tell Desean Jackson that his plays have all been luck. No, it's him being good.

 

[Polaris]

Been lurking for awhile but figured I'd finally join up.

In regards to the Cards, how many 'lucky' plays can a team make before it's not called luck anymore? Doesn't that come down to good execution at some point? I realize that this is more of a matter of perspective and most fans of opposing teams (especially in the division) will think other teams have lucky plays/wins.

Anyways I'm really looking forward to the end of the season between the 9ers/Hawks/Cards as those final games should feel like playoff games as long as the teams can stay relatively healthy.

To answer your question, never. Sometimes lucky plays are simply lucky plays no matter who does them. Fumble recoveries is such a case (just for example). A team can be (and often are) better or worse at forcing fumbles, but fumble recovery by a given team seems random. Likewise long bombs and other 1-2 play scoring drives is more luck than not.

Long plays are not luck. Tell Desean Jackson that his plays have all been luck. No, it's him being good.

It's more correct to say that long plays aren't entirely luck. Even under ideal conditions, the long bomb is a low percentage play with a large variance built into it. If you are relying on long bombs then you are relying on luck at least in part.

 

[el capitan]

This is why I don't put too much stock in DVOA, I'm sure it has it's uses but it doesn't explain how the Redskins beat the Cowboys or how Tampa Bay won in Pittsburgh or how the Bills beat the Lions on the road.
If the Cardinals finish the season with just 4 losses with the schedule they have then I don't see how they will not be a true 12 win team.
I like their chances of having 9 wins before they play us.

Then you are missing a great deal. I don't ask DVOA to explain why teams that aren't as good sometimes beat superior teams. It's called variance, or in NFL terms, "Any Given Sunday", but I have found it's an excellent guide for determining which teams are in fact better at any given point in the season. This attitude is like saying that advanced sabermetrics has no use in baseball.....and we all know differently.

Basically what I am saying...and what DVOA says is that the Cards have gotten their record largely by smoke and mirrors. That's fine to a point: No one is asking the Cards to give them back after all. But it does strongly indicate that there will be a regression to mean in the Card's future.

I accept your point on DVOA and you obviously know a lot more about it than I do but I guess I believe that in the NFL so many insanely random things can impact the outcome of a game (injuries, officiating, turnovers etc) that it's almost impossible to say that because their DVOA says they are an 8-8 team that they will regress to mean during the second half of the season. They may lose a game I expect them them to win and they may win some games I expect them to lose, it's the NFL and it's so hard to accurately predict what's going to happen week to week.

Getting back to the original point of the thread though, I believe from what I've seen of them this season that the Cardinals are a talented, confident extremely well coached team who I think are capable of 11+ wins. I believe we can sweep them but with the way things have gone this season I'd say it's as likely that we'll split the games.
In my opinion I think they are a better team and are better coached than the Cowboys, Rams, Lions, Falcons and Chiefs. I'm not sure whether I'd take them over the 49ers though.