Wilson's First 3 Years Are Arguably the Best in NFL History

[Anthony!]

Not sure what you mean he was great out of the gate in 2012
In his first 6 game he only went over 100 yards 2 times and over 4 ypc 2 times. Game 7 was about when we showed some read option and from that point forward he went over 100 yards 8 times and over 4 ypc 9 times. Add to that at that point ever4yone knew Wilson could scramble and do it well so that helped as well.

Using the stats of the first 6 games as you did Lynch had 128 carries for 549 yards (91.5 yds a game) which is a 4.29 average. If you want to say for the sake of this that week 7 the read option was fully implimented (though week 9 vs Minn is when it really all came together with Russell using his legs) then for the rest of the season he averaged 104.1 yards a game (12.6 yards per game increase)

You said "Lynch was fairly solid out of the gate for the 2012 season even before we started slowly adding the read option plays 6 or so weeks into the season." You said 6 weeks in

And I showed it was not true and he was much much better after the read option, also either way doe snot change the fact that Wilson ability to scramble which he showed in game one impacts Lynch as it tires out the defenders and makes them have to worry about Wilson as well.

 

[Anthony!]

All I was trying to point out is the oline and Cable deserve a good chunk of credit to for Lynch's success starting in 2012, not just Wilson and the RO that really wasn't fully implemented until half way into the season.

See my post above and no one is denying their credit, however people are denying Wilsons credit and that is the point here.

 

[RiverDog]

Not sure what you mean he was great out of the gate in 2012
In his first 6 game he only went over 100 yards 2 times and over 4 ypc 2 times. Game 7 was about when we showed some read option and from that point forward he went over 100 yards 8 times and over 4 ypc 9 times. Add to that at that point ever4yone knew Wilson could scramble and do it well so that helped as well.

The reason you're not sure what I meant by "great out of the gate" is because I never said it. What I said was shallow learning curve, ie approximately 1/2 of his rookie season.

 

[Tical21]

Why does Wilson throw the ball away more often than anybody else? Why does he take so long to get rid of the football? Go to the videotape.

You don't see many guys that watch tape talk about how elite Russell Wilson is. Just sayin'. Tape don't lie and tape don't skew numbers in a weak attempt to validate its theories.

 

[Anthony!]

Not sure what you mean he was great out of the gate in 2012
In his first 6 game he only went over 100 yards 2 times and over 4 ypc 2 times. Game 7 was about when we showed some read option and from that point forward he went over 100 yards 8 times and over 4 ypc 9 times. Add to that at that point ever4yone knew Wilson could scramble and do it well so that helped as well.

The reason you're not sure what I meant by "great out of the gate" is because I never said it. What I said was shallow learning curve, ie approximately 1/2 of his rookie season.

Since that was not addresses to you but the person who said it, no worries

 

[theincrediblesok]

Why does Wilson throw the ball away more often than anybody else? Why does he take so long to get rid of the football? Go to the videotape.

You don't see many guys that watch tape talk about how elite Russell Wilson is. Just sayin'. Tape don't lie and tape don't skew numbers in a weak attempt to validate its theories.

Tape doesn't tell the whole story either, depending on the play and the playcall things might not go as planned. When things don't go as plan how come Wilson more than not come up with some crazy plays to keep the play alive. Announcers are always saying how smart Wilson is to throw away the ball instead of trying to risk it, they say it all the time. Announcers also mention that he makes plays out of holding the ball that long especially when he doesn't have open receivers. Why was Carter calling our receivers pedestrians? When we traded for Harvin how come all of a sudden we were the superbowl favorites, because the pundits sees that our receiving core didn't have a threat at all. Now with Jimmy all of a sudden we are favorites again and everyone mentioned we didn't have a redzone target and it showed last year.

What your doing is comparing his plays to the pocket passing Elite QB, Wilson is too much of a dual threat that it's a give and take sometimes. I love the way he plays and extend them when he has too.

You also have to remember that Wilson was one of the most pressurized QB. If he throws it under pressure what if it gets INT, then what? Then all of sudden his INT rate will rise and he will still be criticized as a game manager. Seahawks are all about explosive plays they say it all the time that when they run the ball, they are setting up to go deep and you wonder why Wilson has to wait it out to see if a guy gets open if not he will eat the sack, throw it away, or try to save the play. Carroll even mentioned that they wanted Wilson to sometimes wait a bit longer instead of taking off so that verifies that he wants those deep plays to develop, the problem was we didn't have receivers getting open consistently.

First of all when Wilson came into the scene not many people gave him a chance to even win the starting job, after game 1 i'm sure at least half on this board was already calling for him to be benched. After his rookie season people opened up their eyes and finally saw what Pete had saw. 2nd year Superbowl winner. 3rd year one play away from a 2nd Superbowl. Elite or not I want a winner, if there's one thing he has is that he's willing to keep learning. Your opinion is that he's not elite, and I respect that. He hasn't even hit his primed yet and he's pretty damn good right now. He's gonna be awesome this season. He's the type of player, a Seahawky player, that will prove everyone wrong eventually.

I don't know why we keep having a Wilson thread really cause everything is getting reshashed, I know slow off season, but doesn't it get tiring that we are all just repeating the same conversation from another thread over and over.

 

[Anthony!]

Why does Wilson throw the ball away more often than anybody else? Why does he take so long to get rid of the football? Go to the videotape.

You don't see many guys that watch tape talk about how elite Russell Wilson is. Just sayin'. Tape don't lie and tape don't skew numbers in a weak attempt to validate its theories.

Tape doesn't tell the whole story either, depending on the play and the playcall things might not go as planned. When things don't go as plan how come Wilson more than not come up with some crazy plays to keep the play alive. Announcers are always saying how smart Wilson is to throw away the ball instead of trying to risk it, they say it all the time. Announcers also mention that he makes plays out of holding the ball that long especially when he doesn't have open receivers. Why was Carter calling our receivers pedestrians? When we traded for Harvin how come all of a sudden we were the superbowl favorites, because the pundits sees that our receiving core didn't have a threat at all. Now with Jimmy all of a sudden we are favorites again and everyone mentioned we didn't have a redzone target and it showed last year.

What your doing is comparing his plays to the pocket passing Elite QB, Wilson is too much of a dual threat that it's a give and take sometimes. I love the way he plays and extend them when he has too.

You also have to remember that Wilson was one of the most pressurized QB. If he throws it under pressure what if it gets INT, then what? Then all of sudden his INT rate will rise and he will still be criticized as a game manager. Seahawks are all about explosive plays they say it all the time that when they run the ball, they are setting up to go deep and you wonder why Wilson has to wait it out to see if a guy gets open if not he will eat the sack, throw it away, or try to save the play. Carroll even mentioned that they wanted Wilson to sometimes wait a bit longer instead of taking off so that verifies that he wants those deep plays to develop, the problem was we didn't have receivers getting open consistently.

First of all when Wilson came into the scene not many people gave him a chance to even win the starting job, after game 1 i'm sure at least half on this board was already calling for him to be benched. After his rookie season people opened up their eyes and finally saw what Pete had saw. 2nd year Superbowl winner. 3rd year one play away from a 2nd Superbowl. Elite or not I want a winner, if there's one thing he has is that he's willing to keep learning. Your opinion is that he's not elite, and I respect that. He hasn't even hit his primed yet and he's pretty damn good right now. He's gonna be awesome this season. He's the type of player, a Seahawky player, that will prove everyone wrong eventually.

I don't know why we keep having a Wilson thread really cause everything is getting reshashed, I know slow off season, but doesn't it get tiring that we are all just repeating the same conversation from another thread over and over.

Great response to a hater. FYI all the experts watch tape and most think he is a great QB, either Elite or Boarder line Elite. It amazes me now he is complaining about him throwing the ball away so, much. if he did not he would complain how he should, As has been pointed out by Huard and Millen who watch tape, and know the Hawks, in most cases Wilson is making the right choice and in the few were he may not be, it still more often than not works out. Guess what that is true of all Elite QBs.

 

[RiverDog]

Since that was not addresses to you but the person who said it, no worries

As an honest suggestion to avoid confusion, you might want to simplifying your posts and delete the comments of those you are not responding to rather than responding to 4 or 5 responses in the same post.

 

[RiverDog]

Why does Wilson throw the ball away more often than anybody else? Why does he take so long to get rid of the football? Go to the videotape.

You don't see many guys that watch tape talk about how elite Russell Wilson is. Just sayin'. Tape don't lie and tape don't skew numbers in a weak attempt to validate its theories.

Absolutely true, which is why stats usually only tell part of a story and seldom tell the full story.

But when there is enough of a difference that they slap you in the face, such as Peyton Manning's career 65.5% completion percentage vs. Tim Tebow's career 47.9% completion percentage, they become a little more difficult to rationalize.

 

[Anthony!]

Since that was not addresses to you but the person who said it, no worries

As an honest suggestion to avoid confusion, you might want to simplifying your posts and delete the comments of those you are not responding to rather than responding to 4 or 5 responses in the same post.

Good suggestion I will try to keep that in mind thanks

 

[Anthony!]

Why does Wilson throw the ball away more often than anybody else? Why does he take so long to get rid of the football? Go to the videotape.

You don't see many guys that watch tape talk about how elite Russell Wilson is. Just sayin'. Tape don't lie and tape don't skew numbers in a weak attempt to validate its theories.

Absolutely true, which is why stats usually only tell part of a story and seldom tell the full story.

But when there is enough of a difference that they slap you in the face, such as Peyton Manning's career 65.5% completion percentage vs. Tim Tebow's career 47.9% completion percentage, they become a little more difficult to rationalize.

Agreed and given Wilson is 63.4% which is right up there with Manning, Brady who is at career 63.5 I think that makes the throwing the ball away a moot point. Also as has been pointed out and stated by PC our plays a re longer developing as a norm, and our Wr often are unable to get separation.

 

[Tical21]

Who says our WR's don't get separation? Have you viewed the tape?

 

[theincrediblesok]

Who says our WR's don't get separation? Have you viewed the tape?

I for one said they don't get separation consistently, not saying they never do. Baldwin is our most consistent guy, but even he can get lost if he's getting shadowed by a #1 CB, he's the only one getting separation most of the time.

I have not seen the All-22 but I see that I can get a 7 day free trial if I wanted to check it out might be something I might end up doing.

 

[RichNhansom]

Who says our WR's don't get separation? Have you viewed the tape?

It's not just about getting separation. It's just as much about running consistent routes and timing which is heavily affected by inconsistent route running.

Lockette has been bashed for not being aggressive on the final play of the super bowl and in reality Wilson throws the ball to late. That is an example of that inconsistency.

There is a reason P-Rich was excelling towards the end of the season before getting injured and that same reason is why many tall, speedy, athletic receivers with great hands never make an NFL roster. It's easy to sit here and cherry pick moments when a player gets open but the reality is the randomness of such an event is why Wilson is not looking their direction when they do.

Its that consistency that has made players like Largent and Rice HOFer's.Not because they were lightning fast or 6'10" tall. We simply have not had that luxury outside of Baldwin who has been drawing opponents best CB's.

Simply put it's not enough for your 1st target to get open when you have already moved onto your third read.

 

[Anthony!]

Who says our WR's don't get separation? Have you viewed the tape?

I for one said they don't get separation consistently, not saying they never do. Baldwin is our most consistent guy, but even he can get lost if he's getting shadowed by a #1 CB, he's the only one getting separation most of the time.

I have not seen the All-22 but I see that I can get a 7 day free trial if I wanted to check it out might be something I might end up doing.

First off the all 22 does not tell you everything, like when they got open in Wilson progressions, Its great if they get open but if it is after Wilson has moved on in his progressions it means little. Again both Huard and Millen have said our wr do not get separation, the guys on ESPN have said it, every game the announcers say no one was open. Lets see the announcers and 2 experts or the guy who has made it clear he hates Wilson, seems like a no brainer to me.

 

[Tical21]

Lol at letting Brock Huard form my opinions for me.

What matters most is that Bevell calls plays to get the primary target open, and the primary receiver gives Russell a reasonable window to throw the ball to. Agreed?

Then the second option can hopefully get open as well.

Watch the tape. Watch where Russell's first option is. Tell me if that receiver has given Russell a reasonable window to complete the pass. It is a really fun exercise. You might learn something. Or you can keep letting the talking heads form your opinions for you and try to use those opinions to mock those that have actually put in the time to do the research. You can keep being delusional if you want, or you can look at actual game footage and see for yourself. If you want to come over I would be happy to show you what I'm seeing. Bring your charts.

 

[Anthony!]

Something else we need to keep in mind is PC is turnover aversion, means he does not want to take chances so while a Wr may have a half a step for PC that is not enough. So what some might say or see as open is not to PC and he has passed that on to Wilson. All that said given the overwhelming amount of experts who have repeatedly said our Wr do not get separation, that still appears to be the biggest issue. I think this sums it up the most

A QB is limited to what he can see and is dependent upon progressions, timing, and protection. A WR might be "open" but it doesn't matter if there are protection issues and/or they weren't open during the proper timing/progression. Furthermore, what looks "open" on tape might not look "open" from the QBs perspective and most don't understand the play concept/design/call.

That pretty munch sums it up, Huard once broken down of the games last year I think it was the Dallas game were a few fans thought there were open Wr, but when he went back looked at the tape, recognized the play call and routes he made it clear that they were not open at the time when they were in Wilsons progression. Meaning when Wilson looked at them they were not open, they got open after. SO if Wilson third option get open when he has moved on to 4, they were not really open.

 

[JimmyG]

First, Wilson has an obscenely low INT percentage which carries over from his college days. Dude does not turn the ball over thus allowing us to stay in every game. The only active QBs better in INT% than Wilson (2.1%) are Aaron Rodgers (1.6%) and Tom Brady (2.2%). All-time, Wilson is fourth on the list, behind those two and Neil O'Donnell. The fact that he throws less means he has less interceptions than these others as well.

His interception rate is low, but not as low as you think. The NFL is a different game than it was 10, 20 years ago.

Here are the league leaders* in INT% since Wilson entered the league in 2012 (i.e. cumulative INT%, 2012-2014):
1. Aaron Rodgers - 1.40%
2. Alex Smith - 1.51%
3. Tom Brady - 1.52%
4. Colin Kaepernick - 1.89%
5. Ben Roethlisberger - 1.89%
6. Nick Foles - 1.90%
7. Peyton Manning - 1.96%
8. Russell Wilson - 2.08%
9. Tony Romo - 2.35%
10. Andrew Luck - 2.37%
(* excluded from the list were RG3 and Sam Bradford who ranked 9th and 10th, respectively; I removed them because they had what I deemed to be too few attempts)

I wouldn't call that "obscenely low". Relative to league history his rate is very good, but relative to the modern day NFL it's not obscene. I also think that our defense allows Wilson to play conservatively, which permits things like "take what the defense gives you" instead of "our team revolves around you, thread the needle" -- that type of thing mitigates errors and turnovers. Just my opinion, but I think a high volume passer like Rodgers/Brady having a low INT% is more impressive than Wilson or Kaepernick throwing 400-450 times a year and doing the same thing.

That said, his ability to remain composed and not force throws is one of the qualities I really enjoy about him. That's good decision-making. However, I do think it takes two to tango: it's not just his good decision making, it's also the fact that our relentless defense gives him the opportunity to play conservatively. I think he's a very good fit for our team in that respect.

 

[JimmyG]

Also, RE: the original post.

Wilson's numbers are great, but, as I alluded to in my post above, he has the benefit of playing in the high-octane, modern NFL. Look at how devalued running backs have become. Sure, there are elite ones (Beast, Peterson, Charles, etc), but many teams view running backs as plug-and-play types and wouldn't even consider taking one in the first round anymore.

To put some perspective on this, chew on this:
- in the 1970's, there were only 11 quarterback seasons with a rating over 90 (~ 1.1 / season)
- in the 1980's, there were only 27 quarterback seasons with a rating over 90 (~2.7 / season)
- in the 1990's, there were only 33 quarterback seasons with a rating over 90 (~3.3 / season)
- in the 2000's, there were 58 quarterback seasons with a rating over 90 (~5.8 / season)
- in the current half decade, there have been 54 quarterback seasons with a rating over 90 (~5.4 / season)
- during Wilson's time in the league, there have been 39 quarterbacks with a rating over 90 (~13 / season)

- in the 1970's, there were only 2 quarterback seasons with a rating over 100 (~ 1 every 5 years)
- in the 1980's, there were only 4 quarterback seasons with a rating over 100 (~1 every other year)
- in the 1990's, there were only 10 quarterback seasons with a rating over 100 (~ 1 / season)
- in the 2000's, there were 18 quarterback seasons with a rating over 100 (~ 1.8 / season)
- in the current half decade, there have been 21 quarterback seasons with a rating over 100 (~2.1 / season)
- during Wilson's time in the league, there have been 16 QB seasons with a rating over 100 (~5.3 / season)

League Average QB stats by year:
1970: 62.5 passer rating ... 5.2 INT% ... 0.84:1 TD:INT ... 51.1 CMP% ... 16.4 pass TD (league: 427 TD passes, 510 INT)
1975: 62.8 passer rating ... 5.3 INT% ... 0.81:TD TD:INT ... 52.5 CMP% ... 16.7 pass TD
1980: 71.3 passer rating ... 4.6 INT% ... 0.97:1 TD:INT ... 56.2 CMP% ... 21.6 pass TD
1985: 70.7 passer rating ... 4.2 INT% ... 0.99:1 TD:INT ... 54.8 CMP% ... 21.4 pass TD
1990: 75.0 passer rating ... 3.6 INT% ... 1.19 TD:INT ... 56.0 CMP%... 20.5 pass TD
1995: 77.5 passer rating ... 3.1 INT% ... 1.29 TD:INT ... 58.2 CMP% ... 22.1 pass TD
2000: 76.2 passer rating ... 3.3 INT% ... 1.19 TD:INT ... 58.2 CMP% ... 20.5 pass TD
2005: 78.2 passer rating ... 3.1 INT% ... 1.27 TD:INT .... 59.9 CMP% ... 20.1 pass TD
2010: 82.2 passer rating ... 3.0 INT% ... 1.47 TD:INT ... 60.8 CMP% ... 23.5 pass TD
'12-'14: 85.0 passer rating ... 2.6 INT% ... 1.67 TD:INT ... 61.6 CMP% ... 24.6 pass TD
2014: 87.1 passer rating ... 2.5 INT% ... 1.79 TD:INT ... 62.6 CMP% ... 25.2 pass TD (league: 807 TD passes, 450 INT)

Wilson's efficiency stats are very good... but so is league-wide efficiency across the board. His numbers still compare favorably to league average, but I don't think it's fair to compare Wilson's numbers to Manning's first three years, or Marino's first three years, etc... we're talking about very different eras. We acknowledge change and inflation with money, so why not do it with stats?

I think Wilson is very good, and I think he has the potential to be elite. He's certainly on that trajectory. However, I think some of the stats thrown around are a bit disingenuous and overzealous. I love Wilson and I'm happy he's our quarterback, but I can't ignore this stuff when entering discussions about him. This is NOT an attack on Wilson or an attempt to take him down, it's just an honest look and something I think a lot of people are either oblivious to or choose to ignore.

 

[aawolf]

First, Wilson has an obscenely low INT percentage which carries over from his college days. Dude does not turn the ball over thus allowing us to stay in every game. The only active QBs better in INT% than Wilson (2.1%) are Aaron Rodgers (1.6%) and Tom Brady (2.2%). All-time, Wilson is fourth on the list, behind those two and Neil O'Donnell. The fact that he throws less means he has less interceptions than these others as well.

His interception rate is low, but not as low as you think. The NFL is a different game than it was 10, 20 years ago.

Here are the league leaders* in INT% since Wilson entered the league in 2012 (i.e. cumulative INT%, 2012-2014):
1. Aaron Rodgers - 1.40%
2. Alex Smith - 1.51%
3. Tom Brady - 1.52%
4. Colin Kaepernick - 1.89%
5. Ben Roethlisberger - 1.89%
6. Nick Foles - 1.90%
7. Peyton Manning - 1.96%
8. Russell Wilson - 2.08%
9. Tony Romo - 2.35%
10. Andrew Luck - 2.37%
(* excluded from the list were RG3 and Sam Bradford who ranked 9th and 10th, respectively; I removed them because they had what I deemed to be too few attempts)

I wouldn't call that "obscenely low". Relative to league history his rate is very good, but relative to the modern day NFL it's not obscene. I also think that our defense allows Wilson to play conservatively, which permits things like "take what the defense gives you" instead of "our team revolves around you, thread the needle" -- that type of thing mitigates errors and turnovers. Just my opinion, but I think a high volume passer like Rodgers/Brady having a low INT% is more impressive than Wilson or Kaepernick throwing 400-450 times a year and doing the same thing.

That said, his ability to remain composed and not force throws is one of the qualities I really enjoy about him. That's good decision-making. However, I do think it takes two to tango: it's not just his good decision making, it's also the fact that our relentless defense gives him the opportunity to play conservatively. I think he's a very good fit for our team in that respect.

hmmm. I got my stats from Profootball Reference, which shows the INT % I listed:

Here is the link to QB carreer INT%
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/l ... career.htm

They excluded RW, but here are his stats:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... lsRu00.htm