Wild Card Watch Thread

[FrodosFinger]

Magic number is 1

 

[Chapow]

I'm going to be elated to see the M's in the playoffs for the 1st time in 21 years no matter what, but you know what? I'm getting greedy. I want that 1st WC. I want to see a playoff series at home here in Seattle. I'd love for that to be against Tampa Bay, but I know that's pretty unlikely and we would probably get Toronto. I'm OK with that.

I get that a lot of people disagree, but at Cleveland and at NY sure isn't looking like the easier path that it was a couple of weeks ago. Cleveland and NY are the two hottest teams in baseball right now.

At home against the Blue Jays is looking a lot more winnable than on the road against Cleveland, IMO.

 

[SonicHawk]

I'm going to be elated to see the M's in the playoffs for the 1st time in 21 years no matter what, but you know what? I'm getting greedy. I want that 1st WC. I want to see a playoff series at home here in Seattle. I'd love for that to be against Tampa Bay, but I know that's pretty unlikely and we would probably get Toronto. I'm OK with that.

I get that a lot of people disagree, but at Cleveland and at NY sure isn't looking like the easier path that it was a couple of weeks ago. Cleveland and NY are the two hottest teams in baseball right now.

At home against the Blue Jays is looking a lot more winnable than on the road against Cleveland, IMO.

Cleveland is still underwater vs teams above .500 at 22-27. They have played in an underwhelming division. Best team against over .500s is the Astros with the Mariners and Yankees both +7 against .500+.

I think the Mariners are genuinely in the mix with TB, TOR, CLE... and Yankees/Houston are two difficult series. I do think we have the pitching to contend, no matter how off they've been as of late. Having Julio and Geno healthy and playing, Haniger smacking bombs and if Kelenic isn't useless... that means less Winker. Crawford needs to figure it out as well.

 

[Chapow]

Cleveland is still underwater vs teams above .500 at 22-27. They have played in an underwhelming division. Best team against over .500s is the Astros with the Mariners and Yankees both +7 against .500+.

I think the Mariners are genuinely in the mix with TB, TOR, CLE... and Yankees/Houston are two difficult series. I do think we have the pitching to contend, no matter how off they've been as of late. Having Julio and Geno healthy and playing, Haniger smacking bombs and if Kelenic isn't useless... that means less Winker. Crawford needs to figure it out as well.

I guess I'm just not sure how important a stat like, record against teams over .500 over the course of the entire season is when a team gets red hot in late September. Cleveland has been winning a lot of games lately and they currently have the 3rd best overall record in the AL behind only the Astros and Yankees.

Like I said, and I get that many will disagree, but at this point I like our chances better at home against Toronto, than on the road at Cleveland. After that, like you said, the next series is going to be really difficult regardless of whether it's the Yankees or the Astros.

 

[SonicHawk]

Cleveland is a good team and playing 3 games in Cleveland is not ideal. I still think they are just on the level of the WC teams. Their record is heavily influenced by their division which sucks.

2024 MLB Baseball Relative Power Index - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Take a look at these 2024 MLB teams ranked by ESPN.com's baseball Relative Power Index.

www.espn.com

Here's what I'm talking about... TOR, TB, SEA, CLE all within about 10 points in RPI. Astros and Yanks another 10 points ahead.

I don't put a ton into hot/cold streaks of 10 games or so because those come on and off all the time. Yankees being 9-1 in last 10 AND being extremely good for the entire season, that scares me. Houston being consistently dominant scares me. Cleveland having a good stretch against some bad opponents doesn't (as much, still good team).

 

[Chapow]

Cleveland is a good team and playing 3 games in Cleveland is not ideal. I still think they are just on the level of the WC teams. Their record is heavily influenced by their division which sucks.

2024 MLB Baseball Relative Power Index - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Take a look at these 2024 MLB teams ranked by ESPN.com's baseball Relative Power Index.

www.espn.com

Here's what I'm talking about... TOR, TB, SEA, CLE all within about 10 points in RPI. Astros and Yanks another 10 points ahead.

I don't put a ton into hot/cold streaks of 10 games or so because those come on and off all the time. Yankees being 9-1 in last 10 AND being extremely good for the entire season, that scares me. Houston being consistently dominant scares me. Cleveland having a good stretch against some bad opponents doesn't (as much, still good team).

It's not just 10 or so games though. Cleveland started off September with 4 straight loses, but since September 4th they are 20-4. That's pretty damn red hot for nearly 4 weeks.

I agree that overall they seem to be on about the same level as the M's, the Blue Jays, and the Rays. The difference is that Cleveland has been red hot for weeks now, while the M's, Blue Jays, and Rays, just haven't been.

I realize I'm getting repetitive at this point so I'll just leave it with this. I just really don't believe that our best chance in the playoffs is playing the hottest team in baseball over the past month on the road. I'd much, much rather get Toronto or TB at home. Either way though, we're going to be playing against a pretty good team. Much better than any team we've played in a couple weeks.

 

[FrodosFinger]

We just need to win the wildcard round then move on and sweep Houston or the Stankees

 

[SonicHawk]

It's not just 10 or so games though. Cleveland started off September with 4 straight loses, but since September 4th they are 20-4. That's pretty damn red hot for nearly 4 weeks.

I agree that overall they seem to be on about the same level as the M's, the Blue Jays, and the Rays. The difference is that Cleveland has been red hot for weeks now, while the M's, Blue Jays, and Rays, just haven't been.

I realize I'm getting repetitive at this point so I'll just leave it with this. I just really don't believe that our best chance in the playoffs is playing the hottest team in baseball over the past month on the road. I'd much, much rather get Toronto or TB at home. Either way though, we're going to be playing against a pretty good team. Much better than any team we've played in a couple weeks.

20-4 is no joke.

 

[SonicHawk]

Can’t wait to beat Toronto, Houston, NYY, then the Dodgers

 

[Shanegotyou11]

I think Jays lose 1 or 2 games to end the yr.

 

[Ruminator]

Last remaining battle to notch a WC spot is on the NL side: Phillies and Brewers. (And mathematically, Padres, but their magic number is currently 1.) I'm not sure why, but I'm rooting for the Phillies to make it. Maybe because they now own MLB's longest postseason drought, spanning 11 years. (Brewers were in last year.)

Love how the Ms got their spot locked down with a whole week of regular season remaining rather than barely squeaking in on the final day.

For those compelled to respond just to say "WHO CARES ABOU THE NL!!", no need, I'll do it for you:

WHO CARES ABOU THE NL!!

 

[FrodosFinger]

The Blue Jays need to cool the hell down they’re getting swept soon

 

[Cyrus12]

The pennant is gonna fly north of the border for the 3rd time...

 

[Sports Hernia]

The pennant is gonna fly north of the border for the 3rd time...

Boo, hiss!

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Need Boston today.

 

[Crizilla]

Looking like at Toronto for the Wild Card series. Winning record against them in the reg season. Crazy environment over there, get ready lads.

 

[SonicHawk]

Need Baltimore to show up against Toronto. We own the tiebreaker so it’s not over

 

[Crizilla]

Winker .455 OBP the last 7 days. Do you DH him or Santana?

 

[Sports Hernia]

Winker .455 OBP the last 7 days. Do you DH him or Santana?

Santana. At least He hits the occasional HR or double.

 

[Crizilla]

Santana. At least He hits the occasional HR or double.

Yeah I honestly don't know. I'm a big OBP guy.