fenderbender123":2p1jqkd1 said:Let's also not forget that by allowing SF to run more running plays, it increases the chances that they will fumble or we will force a fumble. Or that maybe they will get a penalty and push them back to a lower percentage field goal...remember no FG = a win for us. You can't just look at the odds of scoring a TD with over a minute left vs getting a field goal with less than 30 seconds, because there's more to it than that.
No one is forgetting that. Folks who do that sort of analysis showed their calculations at the link below, and it includes the odds of fumbles/blocked FGs.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/12 ... ed-td.html
With fumble & and field goal taken into account the Seahawks had double the odds of winning by letting them score. Their numbers might be a little off & might be leaving out small things, but 10-15% is a lot of ground to make up.