What happens if Drew Lock is decent?

Seahawk_Dan

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Don’t get it twisted, I’m not saying or implying he’s gonna be lights out or a Hall of Famer, but what if he’s adequate?

Lets say he gets the starting gig, the team gets around 10 wins, his TD/INT ratio is a net positive, and just performance wise he’s serviceable and is a component starter.

Does the team still invest in a 1st Round QB next year? Do you build elsewhere with your two 1sts and two 2nds?
 
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Welshers

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I think you still have to invest in a QB for the future. Unless he has an absolute breakout year ala Tanehill. Which I honestly don't see happening. It would be wonderful if he got us 10 wins, but then you are not well positioned to pick a QB. Make you take a shot with a lower pick because there are supposed to be a ton of good guys in that draft.
 

TasteTheBeastmode

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IMHO Drew Lock being decent is the best case scenario going forward.

Let's say he performs as a league average QB this upcoming season. Given our division I think league average QB play for the Seahawks gets us to .500 at best. We have enough draft capital that from that position we could easily move up to take one of the top prospects and with a league average QB on the roster there wouldn't be huge pressure for the franchise QB of the future to start game one in 2023. He could be eased in instead of tossed into the fire.
 

keasley45

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As long as 'decent' doesnt dissuade the FO from taking our QB of the future in the first round next year...

That, in my opinion is the risk. HE plays just well enough that Pete and John think we're 'good'.

In many ways I'd rather he either be Lock of 2021, or go nuts and pull a Josh Allen type turnaround. Being in between those two... not so sure it's a great thing.
 

sdog1981

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9 to 11 wins. Meaning the team would have to throw in 2024 picks to move up to draft the QB they want in 2023.
 

TasteTheBeastmode

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9 to 11 wins. Meaning the team would have to throw in 2024 picks to move up to draft the QB they want in 2023.
11 wins puts us in the playoffs. I don't see that happening.

As it's currently constructed there's no way I see league average QB play bringing this team double digit wins. The rest of the team isn't that dominant.

If Lock plays at a level that takes this team to 11 wins and there's any reason to think that performance is repeatable, he's not an average QB and he's more than "decent".

You have your quarterback.
 

jammerhawk

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Simple answer: the team will be better than many predict.

Otherwise it's hard to say what they will do if that is the case as Lock is young.
 

TwistedHusky

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It will be worse for us in the long term.

We had a QB that was making up for a LOT of coaching issues.

If we are terrible, we have a good chance at getting a good QB since (the hope) is that JS is adept at sniffing out great QBs in the draft.
If we don't get that great QB, and we are stuck with an 'adequate' QB, then we win more games against below .500 teams and the occasional game against an above .500 team.
But we lose any chance at being a playoff contender or any kind of top of the NFL team in the next 5+ years.

So we bob around barely .500 maybe a little below, a little above. But not enough to force change and not enough to drive the fanbase to demand anything. We make occasional almost forays into the playoffs.
Basically, we become the football version of the Mariners.

It is almost a worst-case scenario if he isn't awful but isn't really good either.
In the past 5 years, we could barely win playoff games with a HOF QB, we could win wildcard games sometimes though. What happens with this coach and a much worse QB?

The only chance for this team is a tremendous QB, which we have to find. We won't if we have an average QB that does not force change or give us the draft slots to even compete to GET a tremendous QB...even if JS uses his magical powers to sniff one out he still has to be in the position to grab him.

There is one path to winning consistently in this league over time in the playoffs, and it involves leveraging your above average to exceptional QB to wins. Maybe that will change but right now, an average QB won't help you. We are not the 49ers, we cannot coach our way past that challenge.
 

jammerhawk

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Not sure I agree with this consistently negative view. I get the. Basis Bias for this view but if the D returns to pre KNJ levels and is aswell actually good the team could be a lot improved from the bleak outcome of the apocalyptic post RW predictions.

Having a game manager QB that is adequate perhaps a takes away from top line potential outcomes but doesn’t lock the team into mediocrity or worse.
 

UK_Seahawk

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9 to 11 wins. Meaning the team would have to throw in 2024 picks to move up to draft the QB they want in 2023.
Depends what happens with Denver, we have their 1st and 2nd next year. Plenty of potential ammo.
 

TwistedHusky

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Jammer,
It isn't good enough to improve.
That part is easy. You consistently beat the below .500 teams.
Carroll's entire thing is reducing mistakes and taking advantage of the mistakes of the other teams. Pisspoor gameplan aside - he does that well.
And below .500 teams make more mistakes, so that becomes easier.
That gets you to .500.
Above .500 teams make less mistakes, but we tend to win one game against a team we had no business beating per year, just as we tend to lose to one team we had no business losing to.
So now, you want to be a playoff team that wins playoff games?
You have to beat above .500 teams. That will not happen with an adequate or even average QB, even WITH an 'improved' defense. You need an exceptional defense with an average QB or an exceptional QB with an average defense (if one of those is going to be average)

Improved isn't good enough. You have to be better than the top 1/3 of the teams. Do you see that happening in the scenario you are laying out? How?
 

Rat

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Let's say he performs as a league average QB this upcoming season. Given our division I think league average QB play for the Seahawks gets us to .500 at best. We have enough draft capital that from that position we could easily move up to take one of the top prospects
I don't see how we "easily" have enough unless Denver is really, really bad. If we're hovering around .500 and end up picking 10-12, having like the 25th pick from the Broncos isn't getting us into Young/Stroud territory. Trade-ups are at a premium when it's for an elite QB prospect, and we'd also need the team that has that pick to not need a QB themselves.
 

Sun Tzu

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It will be worse for us in the long term.

We had a QB that was making up for a LOT of coaching issues.

If we are terrible, we have a good chance at getting a good QB since (the hope) is that JS is adept at sniffing out great QBs in the draft.
If we don't get that great QB, and we are stuck with an 'adequate' QB, then we win more games against below .500 teams and the occasional game against an above .500 team.
But we lose any chance at being a playoff contender or any kind of top of the NFL team in the next 5+ years.

So we bob around barely .500 maybe a little below, a little above. But not enough to force change and not enough to drive the fanbase to demand anything. We make occasional almost forays into the playoffs.
Basically, we become the football version of the Mariners.

It is almost a worst-case scenario if he isn't awful but isn't really good either.
In the past 5 years, we could barely win playoff games with a HOF QB, we could win wildcard games sometimes though. What happens with this coach and a much worse QB?

The only chance for this team is a tremendous QB, which we have to find. We won't if we have an average QB that does not force change or give us the draft slots to even compete to GET a tremendous QB...even if JS uses his magical powers to sniff one out he still has to be in the position to grab him.

There is one path to winning consistently in this league over time in the playoffs, and it involves leveraging your above average to exceptional QB to wins. Maybe that will change but right now, an average QB won't help you. We are not the 49ers, we cannot coach our way past that challenge.
It will be better for us in the long term.

We have a coach that was making up for a LOT of quarterbacking issues.

If we are good, we still have a good chance at getting a good QB since (the known) is that JS is adept at sniffing out great QBs in the draft.
If we don't get that great QB, and we have an 'adequate' QB, then we win games against below .500 teams and the occasional game against an above .500 team.
And we have a chance at being a playoff contender or a top of the NFL team in the next 5+ years.

So we bob around above .500 maybe a little better, maybe a lot above. Enough to entice free agents and not enough to drive the quarterback to demand anything. We make constant forays into the playoffs.
Basically, we become the football version of the Dodgers.

It is almost a best-case scenario if he isn't awful but isn't really good before his next contract either.
In the past 5 years, we could barely win playoff games with an overrated QB taking up a huge chunk of the salary cap, we could win wildcard games sometimes though. What happens with this coach and a coachable QB?

The only chance for any team is a balanced roster, which we have to build. We will if we have an average QB that does not force change or take up cap in excess of his contribution...when JS uses his magical powers to sniff a great QB out the team will be built out and in position to capitalize on him.

There are many paths to winning consistently in this league over time in the playoffs, but all involve having an above-average scoring defense. Maybe that will change, but right now, an average defense won't help you. We are not in the NBA all-star game, we cannot score our way past that challenge.
 

chrispy

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When Matt Flynn and RW were in camp together, JS said in multiple press conferences that championship teams address the QB position every season. Then he failed to do it. I think a lot of that inactivity was a result of trying to get Wilson weapons/protection with the expectation that he'd be in Seattle for his entire career. Then, in the last couple seasons, they really couldn't bring in a QB because it would devalue Wilson. I think/hope/expect that will change. The only reason it wouldn't (or maybe shouldn't- my opinion) is if Luck turns out to be a franchise QB on the level of Wilson.

The correct answer to the OP is that the FO should bring in a competitive QB next offseason and every offseason. Even if there's a chance to bring in a competitor this year, it's still beneficial. Next offseason, the amount of resources committed to QB will obviously depend on how well Lock plays. However, even if he's better than decent, getting a QB in the top 2 rounds is a good thing and worthwhile. ...and a Free Agent, or 2.
 

Rat

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If we are good, we still have a good chance at getting a good QB since (the known) is that JS is adept at sniffing out great QBs in the draft.

JS has drafted exactly one QB in 12 years, and half the league wanted that guy. That's not enough of a sample size to be "the known". Also, you called that one QB "overrated" later on in the same post.
 

cheese22

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Don’t get it twisted, I’m not saying or implying he’s gonna be lights out or a Hall of Famer, but what if he’s adequate?

Lets say he gets the starting gig, the team gets around 10 wins, his TD/INT ratio is a net positive, and just performance wise he’s serviceable and is a component starter.

Does the team still invest in a 1st Round QB next year? Do you build elsewhere with your two 1sts and two 2nds?
Funny that you posted this because I was gonna ask the same thing yesterday but I figured I would just get strung up.
 

Sun Tzu

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JS has drafted exactly one QB in 12 years, and half the league wanted that guy. That's not enough of a sample size to be "the known". Also, you called that one QB "overrated" later on in the same post.
It's possible that you missed what I did with my post. Maybe you should reread the post I was responding to.

pietro maximoff marvel GIF
 

cheese22

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Lock having a great year might be the worst possible outcome. It will mean a lower pick in the first that will take a much bigger package to move into range to get a top QB pick. PC/JS may think they're set and take a mid round flier as a developmental guy. Even a great year from him could only be worth a first round exit, his best won't be enough for anything more.
 

TwistedHusky

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The only people that think the problem with the Seahawks progressing was the QB are the same people that think Carroll can still be effective.

(ie wishful fans in Seattle)

You have to be wishful to overlook that Carroll isn't even good at the stuff he was good at in the past. Which leaves you with precious few strengths and a whole lot of weaknesses.

Even so, Carroll has a system that works on under .500 teams and he will likely use that. So we will be closer to bang average than terrible. But average QBs cannot make up for Carroll's deficiencies, and he won't have a great QB to win games against better teams despite Carroll's deficiencies.

Very few more come from behind wins. And we saw in how Pete used Geno, he still plans to try to keep the game close - those will just turn into losses against the better teams.
 
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