Trading down. How would you play it?

[Chuckwow]

..Or how do you think our FO would play it?

It's entirely possible John and Pete might not love anyone at 5 and you know how these guys like to roll. I could see them working a deal with Philly. Trading them our 5 for Philly's two 1sts. That would give us 3 1sts and a total of 5 picks in the top 51. Personally, I'd jump on that. YMMV.

Or how about Houston? We trade to them our 5th and 37th this year for their #12 this year and we also want their 1st next year? That's getting pretty exotic and a gamble for both teams but I'm trying to think of a way to bolster our D this year while maybe getting us in the lottery next year (Drake Maye).

With two 1sts we'd be in great shape to make grab Maye. And we might only have to use Houston's 1st to get Maye cuz LV will surely tank next year and pick Caleb Williams.

LV has two 1sts this year so our guys are probably right now speaking with them and Detroit as well.

Again, I'm just kicking this stuff around and asking you what you would do if your guy isn't there at 5 and you have a chance to trade down.

 

[nanomoz]

I hope they stay put and draft the best player on their board at #5, outside of running back.

But I think they'll only be two or three dudes they're willing to draft at #5, and if they're gone, they'll pursue a move down.

The Eagles trade could make sense. And a future first is always enticing.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

..Or how do you think our FO would play it?

It's entirely possible John and Pete might not love anyone at 5 and you know how these guys like to roll. I could see them working a deal with Philly. Trading them our 5 for Philly's two 1sts. That would give us 3 1sts and a total of 5 picks in the top 51. Personally, I'd jump on that. YMMV.

Or how about Houston? We trade to them our 5th and 37th this year for their #12 this year and we also want their 1st next year? That's getting pretty exotic and a gamble for both teams but I'm trying to think of a way to bolster our D this year while maybe getting us in the lottery next year (Drake Maye).

With two 1sts we'd be in great shape to make grab Maye. And we might only have to use Houston's 1st to get Maye cuz LV will surely tank next year and pick Caleb Williams.

LV has two 1sts this year so our guys are probably right now speaking with them and Detroit as well.

Again, I'm just kicking this stuff around and asking you what you would do if your guy isn't there at 5 and you have a chance to trade down.

Seattle has traded down so much that no one here would be at all surprised.

It’s just refreshing to see them pick when it’s their turn to pick. But since the defense is so horrible, and there are a lot of holes. Seattle would benefit to grab more picks but more picks doesn’t always work out with this front office.

Seems like this front office best drafts are the drafts where they do not trade picks so much.

 

[sutz]

I would hate if they trade out of the top 10. Other than that, I guess I'm open to it.

 

[BASF]

Seattle has traded down so much that no one here would be at all surprised.

It’s just refreshing to see them pick when it’s their turn to pick. But since the defense is so horrible, and there are a lot of holes. Seattle would benefit to grab more picks but more picks doesn’t always work out with this front office.

Seems like this front office best drafts are the drafts where they do not trade picks so much.

Reasoning?

2009: Earl Thomas and Max Unger were through traded picks
2010: Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor, Walter Thurmond, Byron Maxwell, Tyler Polumbus and KJ Wright were through traded picks
2011: Richard Sherman and JR Sweezy were through traded picks
2012: Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner were through traded picks
2015: Tyler Lockett was through a traded pick
2016: Jarran Reed was through a traded pick
2017: Chris Carson was through a traded pick
2018: Rashaad Penny was through a traded pick (yeah, yeah, one of the oh he's a bust because he was hurt posters will chime in, but the man is damn good when healthy, no one could have predicted his injuries)
2019: DK Metcalf was through a traded pick
2020: Darrell Taylor, Damien Lewis and Coby Bryant (chosen in 2022 through one of these trades) were through traded picks
2021: Tre Brown was through a traded pick
2022: Charles Cross and Boye Mafe were through traded picks

Going through each year I was surprised to see that most of the trades that did not work out we usually traded them within a year or two to try to recoup some of the draft capital. Of course there were some misses (some spectacularly so), but no one can get them all correct.

 

[Mick063]

It all depends upon that defensive tackle from Georgia. The moment he is taken, I contemplate offers. But I wait and see until then. Who knows? He may slide down. Especially if teams' trade up to reach for quarterbacks. I think an edge rusher can be found later or even in free agency, but I think there is enough talent on the roster at that position that they can draft an edge on potential a little later. Even if the Georgia DT is gone, I take the best defensive tackle available with my first pick, but I trade down if that given player projects to be taken later. Regardless, I target my trade down to get the best DT left on the board.

Mike linebackers are like running backs. They have to be a generational talent to be worth a first round pick. But I draft at least a couple of them on Day 2 to hedge my bet and they have to be versatile enough to be able to switch to SAM if called upon. I think I take a center before then.

 

[sutz]

It all depends upon that defensive tackle from Georgia. The moment he is taken, I contemplate offers. But I wait and see until then. Who knows? He may slide down. Especially if teams' trade up to reach for quarterbacks. I think an edge rusher can be found later or even in free agency, but I think there is enough talent on the roster at that position that they can draft an edge on potential a little later. Even if the Georgia DT is gone, I take the best defensive tackle available with the my first pick, but I trade down if that given player projects to be taken later. Regardless, I target my trade down to get the best DT left on the board.

Mike linebackers are like running backs. They have to be a generational talent to be worth a first round pick. But I draft at least a couple of them on Day 2 to hedge my bet. I think I take a center before then.

Actually, you "pre-load" several deals before the draft even begins. Then, if your guy goes off the board, you have other GMs on speed dial with potential deals to pull the trigger on.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

I don’t trade down unless it includes a R1 24 with a high probability of being a top 10 pick eg Houston.

If you don’t go QBoTF this year you need to be in position next year.

 

[Chuckwow]

Reasoning?

2009: Earl Thomas and Max Unger were through traded picks
2010: Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor, Walter Thurmond, Byron Maxwell, Tyler Polumbus and KJ Wright were through traded picks
2011: Richard Sherman and JR Sweezy were through traded picks
2012: Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner were through traded picks
2015: Tyler Lockett was through a traded pick
2016: Jarran Reed was through a traded pick
2017: Chris Carson was through a traded pick
2018: Rashaad Penny was through a traded pick (yeah, yeah, one of the oh he's a bust because he was hurt posters will chime in, but the man is damn good when healthy, no one could have predicted his injuries)
2019: DK Metcalf was through a traded pick
2020: Darrell Taylor, Damien Lewis and Coby Bryant (chosen in 2022 through one of these trades) were through traded picks
2021: Tre Brown was through a traded pick
2022: Charles Cross and Boye Mafe were through traded picks

Going through each year I was surprised to see that most of the trades that did not work out we usually traded them within a year or two to try to recoup some of the draft capital. Of course there were some misses (some spectacularly so), but no one can get them all correct.

That was an insane post! When I think of guys like McDowell and Collier I now really think we've done better trading than not.

Several excellent posts in this thread. Most thought provoking but BASF has really fortified what I've been thinking for the last several weeks. Even when I thought we had the 3 spot.

I don't want to offend anyone's belief system, but I don't feel this draft alone is going to be a cure-all for our situation. This is going to take a 2-3 years, IMO. So for me, if it meant passing on a Carter to get Maye next year, I'm in. I just think the kid is that good and a great QB is also a great deodorant.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The fear of trading down is based on an anecdotal and limited sample size of draft failures. It's based on a simple case of mistaking correlation for causation.

Trading down is generally a smart idea if you can get appropriate value. It's all contextual and completely depends on who is remaining at 5 and what kind of offer they get.

If they do trade down, they won't trade out of the general talent cliff, so they're almost certainly staying in the top-16, and they're just as likely to trade up as they are down (they tried multiple times to trade up last year, per seahawks.com. Both from 9 and 40).

John tends to not move off of premium picks, because the top half of the first is generally concentrated with blue chip talent that isn't found in the later first round. He trades down from the late first more often, because more selections in the same talent tier makes sense.

 

[Chuckwow]

Great post and articulated very well, Maelstrom. I'm just not so sure the top half of the 1st is a ton better than the 2nd half. It's a great draft and one that I'd rather have 3 picks in the 2nd part of the 1st than just 1 in the top half and one in the second half. But it's all a crap shoot. You could have it all dialed in and then a kid gets hurt on his Dad's lawnmower. If I knew there was (let's say) a Cortez sitting up there, no way would I trade out. Carter is the closest to that and he clearly does not share Kennedy's hunger. And I fear he's benefitted a ton from his team mate's play. But who knows? Money is a great motivator and if he wants that mega-dollar second deal, he best be in shape and putting out for his new team.

I don't much care for the QBs sitting up there, either. They remind me of guys you draft until you can find your next QB. I could be wrong.

 

[BASF]

There is honestly three QB's who should go in the top five. As much as I am not into Levis since watching several of his games and not just his highlights, he has all the tools to be in the top five. As much as I am positive that Anthony Richardson needs at least two seasons to be ready to run an NFL offense, he will more than likely go in the top ten. While we need a QB of the future, I'd rather get one next season since our team is so full of holes. We can easily leverage our five pick with Vegas, Atlanta or Carolina. We could also move up from twenty with someone if we see another difference maker on the D-Line or OLB that can both set an edge and rush the passer. So many opportunities with this draft.

 

[MORGULON]

Only 2 of the 4 teams ahead of us need a QB. Who is right behind Seattle that would give the Seahawks the draft capital to move to 5 ? Does anyone know?

 

[BASF]

Only 2 of the 4 teams ahead of us need a QB. Who is right behind Seattle that would give the Seahawks the draft capital to move to 5 ? Does anyone know?

Vegas, Atlanta or Carolina

 

[Seahawker]

What if Bryce Young drops to us at #5, thoughts?
1) Hell yeah take him.
2) Take the best trade down offered.
3) If no trade offer take defense & let him fall.

 

[BASF]

What if Bryce Young drops to us at #5, thoughts?

I pass. I do not believe his small frame will last long in the NFL.

 

[Hockey Guy]

I don't care what they do as long as they fix that putrid defense, especially the run defense.

 

[willyrobt]

What if Bryce Young drops to us at #5, thoughts?
1) Hell yeah take him.
2) Take the best trade down offered.
3) If no trade offer take defense & let him fall.

Hell yeah take him.

 

[QWERTY]

Vegas, Atlanta or Carolina

Atlanta doesnt need a QB.

But I would add Saints and Tampa Bay.

 

[BASF]

Atlanta doesnt need a QB.

But I would add Saints and Tampa Bay.

I don't think they are satisfied with Mariotta. His numbers were very pedestrian. I don't think very highly of Desmond Ridder. The Falcons may very well see him as their QB of the future, but I would be amazed if they are correct.

Edit to add, the Saints do not have the ammo to move up in the draft. The Bucs would have to package quite a bit to get me to move down to nineteen.