SalishHawkFan":zgfpvba4 said:
Every week during the season opposing fans post the same thing: the key to beating us is to stop Lynch and make Wilson beat us. Slightly more informed fans think that they need to also contain Wilson and force him to throw in the pocket. Week in, week out, these are the "keys" to beating the Hawks.
History says otherwise.
In our three losses in 2013, Lynch ran for 102, 71 and 72 yards. In those three losses, however, Wilson had three of his 5 worst games. His second worst game was the OT win vs Texas. Lynch ran for 98 yds in that game.
Going back to 2012, in our five losses, Lynch ran for 85, 119, 103,105 and 46. In those five losses, Wilson's rating was 62, 45, 38, 97 and 128. 4 of his 5 worst ratings of the year.
The one time in 8 losses that the Hawks saw Lynch get held to low yardage and Wilson have a great game was 2012 vs Miami. The other 7 games, Lynch had 71 yards or more, breaking 100 yards 4 times and the team lost anyways because Wilson had a crappy game. The sole exception being vs Detroit, where Lynch had a great game and Wilson wasn't too shabby either, but they lost anyways because the defense took the day off.
Let's look at Lynch's worst games over the past two years:
Lynch's 5 worst games rushing in 2013 all resulted in wins for Seattle. Two squeakers against Carolina and St. Louis, the other three were all blowouts. Wilson had over 100 rating in 4 of those 5 games and an 86 in the other one.
Lynch was only held to less than 85 yards rushing twice in 2012. We won one game and lost the other. One of those games was the NE game where Wilson carried the team, the other was the aforementioned Miami game where both Lynch and Wilson had an off day.
Teams that focus on stopping Lynch are going to lose. Stopping Lynch only opens up the game for Wilson to romp over you. Teams that let Lynch have a big day but put the screws on Wilson and force him into having a bad day are the only teams that will beat the Seahawks. When an opposing fan says the keys to beating the Hawks are to stop Lynch, you can stop reading right there. They don't know what they're talking about. The only way to beat the Hawks is to force our "game manager" QB to have an off day.
History doesn't lie.
I appreciate the effort that goes into a post like this.
I also disagree, to an extent. I think total yards are a below average way to measure impact. For instance, TOm Brady threw for over 400 vs the LOB in 2012, but his YPA and total points scored in that game say he had a below average game.
Vs Houston, Lynch had 98. Most of those yards came on 3 runs. For most of the game, Houston controlled the run game and put Seattle into 3rd and long. The scoreboard reflected that, in regulation the offense managed 13 points and struggled to convert third downs.
Vs Carolina, Lynch was shut down, and WIlson had 300. To the tune of 14 total points. If I am a defense, I call that a win. Holding a 300 yard passer to 14 points is not a failure.
At STL, both struggled to do anything, more than half the total yards came on one play, and if not for a short field after a turnover by STL, that game is a loss. 14 total points again.
At the NIners, true enough, Lynch got over 70 yards. but was well under 4 yards a carry, and most important, the Hawks still struggled to get into manageable third downs. Once again, the point total of 17 says that any yardage total by Lynch or Wilson was ineffective.
The Giants did a great job of stopping Lynch. And controlled Wilson. Their defense was tough, but was put in bad situations by Eli all day.
And the home loss to Arizona. I thought Arizona did an incredible job of shutting down Lynch, once again a lot of his yards came on a couple of runs. Less than 4ypa. That was one of the games where I thought the DC killed our play action game by blitzing the two inside zone gaps all day long, they either caught Lynch or got after WIison with that attack a number of times and in the running theme of all the games with low point totals, controlled the Seattle offense on third down.
Stopping the running attack first is not a bad strategy for keeping Seattle out of the endzone, or at least has not been up to now. Do I think we are better equipped to handle that strategy now? For sure. But it doesn't mean it hasn't worked against us before.
To me, the commonality in many of the games where the offense struggled was not control of either Lynch or Wilson. It was an inability if our offensive line to control the LOS in short yardage.
