Yxes1122":1r1psp27 said:
First, we are not as cash rich as we think. We are not far removed from wondering how we were going to pay for Frank Clark. Remember John Schneider admitted that keeping Frank, Bobby, Russell and Reed would be very difficult. ...You still have contract decisions on Ansah, Carson, Fant, Reed, Kendricks, Quill etc. in the next year or two.
I think this requires some context. Seattle appeared extremely interested and willing to resign Frank. Up until the market for DEs suddenly hit 20M a year. Afterwards, they appeared to be resigned to settling for using the cap a second time to keep Clark. But that severely limited their ability to use that tool for Reed, which appeared (appears maybe even now) to be where he's headed. Until a 6 game vacation was handed down.
There didn't seem to be as much discussion about paying him the 17M tag this year, so much as it limited their options in 2020 with Reed. They shopped Clark, but I don't think they expected to get the result they got from KC. Who were similarly saddled with pass rush deficiency with the loss of Dee Ford.
That signing by Oakland really reset the thinking. KC really just gave us an offer we couldn't refuse. Especially at a time where our draft stock was still awful and suffering from previous bad deals we had made.
Yxes1122":1r1psp27 said:
Second, we are not a deep team. We are maybe league average on a good day. Seattle's starters make us a playoff team but many of our starters are injury risks. How many players can we really lose over the course of a season and still be competitive? We are an injury to Bobby away from being a train wreck on defense. Even with Clowney I don't think we have a reliable defense over the course of the season.
We agree here. I don't think Clowney 'completes us'. This team is more than one player away. But you have to start by adding pieces where you can.
Circumstance plays a huge role here. Seattle clearly expected to have a premier DE talent drop to 21. There are too many clues in the post draft process not to infer this. The draft didn't break our way. And I do expect that Seattle is going to be forced to add a DE in R1 next year. Which IMO, is a very bad position to be in. The draft is mercurial and good DEs don't last very long. Even in an epic deep DE class like last year. There wasn't any other collateral options available to push good rushers down the draft board. We could end up taking a DE in a 2020 version of 'Stuck with Ifedi because we had to' situation.
Clowney is almost assuredly better than a back half of R1 talent. Not just now but likely 3 years from now.
Yxes1122":1r1psp27 said:
Third, you can scheme around less talented defensive ends the same way you can scheme around limited QBs. Sean McVay and Doug Peterson have gone to Super Bowls by scheming around non-elite QBs. Baltimore and Buffalo had elite defenses without Frank Clark/Clowney caliber DEs.
Not sure I understand how one schemes around bad pass rush. Other than add more rushers than blockers. But let's say for argument this is possible. Players (both our own and opponents) have routinely described our defense as extremely predictable. Also extremely disciplined. Our system is not one that flirts with dynamic or creative scheming. And we've cut plenty of talent on our teams over the years due to their inability to work within the framework of the defense. It's very rigid. And not at all exotic.
Yxes1122":1r1psp27 said:
I just don't think this team is in a situation that merits a trade like this. This team needs another massive infusion of talent before it even has the depth to absorb the blows that come in sixteen games. I'd rather ride out this year, see if any of the young guys pop and address pass rush next year. Pete and John are still in a rebuild and this feels like a ready now move.
I don't disagree that the team needs an infusion of talent. The draft isn't the only way to add that. Rookies have an innate learning curve. Free agency is a generally poor way to augment that -- and Seattle has done their best work by targeting younger UFAs who still have the ability to produce.
Clowney isn't a UFA. But his age and current pedigree (and even recent availability) are genuinely rare to find on the trade market. Just as Clark was in April. Clowney would not be the final step in creating a reliable defense. But he definitely would be a strong first step. At a particular role that is infamously difficult to fill. Which would grant us the flexibility to fill other holes with better talent, than having to settle for the best of what's left at a critical need and have to wait up to 24 months to see if that high draft pick actually fills it.
Worst case. We use a 2020 first round pick. And after the 2022 season, we realize he needs to be replaced with another high pick in 2023. Assume that pick is actually good and begins to produce at a high rate in 2024.
That's a much more disastrous risk. Squandering multiple first round picks and the bulk of Wilson's athletic prime. And not even a remotely unlikely one if Seattle continues to remain competitive despite talent that indicates we shouldn't.