The 2024 Great Draft Debate

[AgentDib]

The problem with talking about missing on individual players is it goes both ways. There are studs throughout every draft and so if you are going to cherry pick, you could just as easily talk about day 3 standouts that we should have traded down for instead of picking where we did.

2016- Ifedi
2017- Mcdowell
2018- Penny
2019- Collier

Ifedi has had a better career than 11 of the 12 players drafted ahead of him. If you want to use the benefit of hindsight here, you should actually trade down 6 more spots and select Chris Jones. Or all the way down to #165 for Tyreek Hill.

McDowell isn't a good data point either way, since accidents can happen at any draft slot. The evidence is strong at this point that Andrew Luck's shoulder issues were at least partially due to the torn labrum from snowboarding he tried to hide.

Who would they have taken if they didn't move down for Penny? Derwin James had come off the pick before, and they wouldn't have traded down if a center or LVE were at the top of their board. They also could have picked Orlando Brown with the 3rd round pick they got for moving down, so it's hard to blame the trade down itself rather than the players they picked.

Players who went right after Collier include Kaleb McGary, Byron Murphy, Jawaan Taylor, and Deebo Samuel. Is it really the trade down itself that was the problem there, or picking the wrong player from the ones available?

 

[Chawker]

Still they board should of dictated the value at any spot. Its all about the value of the player at that selection. If they don't like then move.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The problem with talking about missing on individual players is it goes both ways. There are studs throughout every draft and so if you are going to cherry pick, you could just as easily talk about day 3 standouts that we should have traded down for instead of picking where we did.

Ifedi has had a better career than 11 of the 12 players drafted ahead of him. If you want to use the benefit of hindsight here, you should actually trade down 6 more spots and select Chris Jones. Or all the way down to #165 for Tyreek Hill.

McDowell isn't a good data point either way, since accidents can happen at any draft slot. The evidence is strong at this point that Andrew Luck's shoulder issues were at least partially due to the torn labrum from snowboarding he tried to hide.

Who would they have taken if they didn't move down for Penny? Derwin James had come off the pick before, and they wouldn't have traded down if a center or LVE were at the top of their board. They also could have picked Orlando Brown with the 3rd round pick they got for moving down, so it's hard to blame the trade down itself rather than the players they picked.

Players who went right after Collier include Kaleb McGary, Byron Murphy, Jawaan Taylor, and Deebo Samuel. Is it really the trade down itself that was the problem there, or picking the wrong player from the ones available?

The highlighted question is one that everyone here should consider very, very closely.

Trading down has been associated with bad outcomes for Seattle. Trading down isn't the problem. Selecting poorly from the available players is the problem.

Favoring trade downs (trade downs in which you receive a fair to favorable amount of assets in return for) is almost objectively the best overall strategy in most situations. In a crapshoot, the way to turn the tables is to increase the amount of chances you have at hitting. This is, of course, an oversimplification - but the general idea is true. Trading down is usually smart, and trading up is a risky "shoot your shot" type of deal (outside of like, trading up in the late rounds, because who cares lol just get your guys at that point).

Seattle trading down and selecting badly is not an indictment of trading down, it's an indictment of their draft philosophy and scouting in that time period. They have pretty much turned that entirely around - a process which started in 2018 and better came to fruition when they had picks of serious value starting in 2022.

Also, the "trading down" certainly was kind of overstated. They liked trading down when picking late and they like it less when picking higher. It's just a tendency thing, and it makes sense because the second half of the first round is... I mean, it's REALLY REALLY a crapshoot.

 

[CactusJack]

Trading down has been associated with bad outcomes for Seattle. Trading down isn't the problem. Selecting poorly from the available players is the problem.

That's a completely reasonable take. Also, accurate.

Since 2013 the Hawks are dead last (32nd) in 1st round pick value (total wAV). Now, a lot of that is due to them trading their picks away. But they simply have not gotten enough value out of their first-round picks.

2013-15= No pick
2017= Trade out/McDowell fiasco
2019= Collier
2021= No pick


I still maintain that if you have the opportunity to take a better player (quality) vs. quantity, your approach should be to take the better player.

At 16, if a blue-chip guy is still sitting there, take him. Don't get cute. Because the game still requires having guys who will make a difference.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

So do all you guys think Howell is our QB1 next year? Or are the Seahawks going to try to draft QB1 next year? That’s still the 800-lb. Gorilla in the room.

Does anybody want McCarthy? In the latest consensus mock the Vikings trade up to number #11 for McCarthy. Bears might have #9 for sale, depending on who’s still available at #9. A lot of debate on the Bears forum these about what to do at #9.

 

[CPHawk]

It all depends on how the team assesses the talent and comprises their tiers of talent. If the Hawks only see, say, 12 players worth taking at #16 and none fall to them, then trading down makes a lot of sense. They might not see that much of a difference between the 13th player on their board and the 50th player on their board, for all we know. If such is the case, then, yes, quantity would be the order of the day for them.

After the first two years, when Pete had a good handle on the college talent, our drafts were very hit and miss. Too much JS thinking he is smarter than everyone and taking guys that no one else wanted in that round.

 

[GemCity]

The draft is too much of a crapshoot and situational in nature to make a whole lot of sense of it prior to picks coming off the board.

I just hope we don’t try to ‘outsmart’ everyone. Get cute…like Eskridge type picks. Or taking a guy thats projected much further down (LJ Collier) because of a certain attribute that leads you to believe he will develop.

We’ve been fairly solid these last two drafts. If that trend continues, we’re going to be ok. But, it’s going to take time.

 

[GemCity]

So do all you guys think Howell is our QB1 next year? Or are the Seahawks going to try to draft QB1 next year? That’s still the 800-lb. Gorilla in the room.

Does anybody want McCarthy? In the latest consensus mock the Vikings trade up to number #11 for McCarthy. Bears might have #9 for sale, depending on who’s still available at #9. A lot of debate on the Bears forum these about what to do at #9.

I don’t think we have a snowballs chance in hell of seeing a top 5 QB at 16.

Howell is our QBotF. I’m not saying that is a good thing or bad thing but, I’d be shocked if we grabbed another QB.

 

[CactusJack]

So do all you guys think Howell is our QB1 next year? Or are the Seahawks going to try to draft QB1 next year? That’s still the 800-lb. Gorilla in the room.

Does anybody want McCarthy? In the latest consensus mock the Vikings trade up to number #11 for McCarthy. Bears might have #9 for sale, depending on who’s still available at #9. A lot of debate on the Bears forum these about what to do at #9.

If your Chicago, why would you trade out? They're in a great spot. You're going to get a blue-chip player at the spot. Like Odunze or Bowers, etc. Trading out makes little to no sense to me. Last year's draft? Sure. But this year? No way. This draft is too good at the top to trade out imo. Especially when you have 4 QB's pushing everyone else down the board. It's a great spot to be in.

 

[sutz]

I fully expect them to trade out of #16 and try to get a 2d round pick, at least. Howell might be the "QBOTF" but we won't know that until training camp, at least. I do expect them to spend a late round pick on a QB, or at least pick up a UDFA. They should go into camp with at least 3 QBs on the roster.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

If your Chicago, why would you trade out? They're in a great spot. You're going to get a blue-chip player at the spot. Like Odunze or Bowers, etc. Trading out makes little to no sense to me. Last year's draft? Sure. But this year? No way. This draft is too good at the top to trade out imo.

The rumor is that Poles has only 3 players graded blue-chip. He will try to trade down if they are gone. Bears have only 4 picks. He could trade down a few spots and get a very good edge rusher plus a second or third round pick to take a WR. I want to trade with the Seahawks and take Powers-Johnson at #16.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I fully expect them to trade out of #16 and try to get a 2d round pick, at least. Howell might be the "QBOTF" but we won't know that until training camp, at least. I do expect them to spend a late round pick on a QB, or at least pick up a UDFA. They should go into camp with at least 3 QBs on the roster.

Finding a QB1 late in the draft is a fools errand. It’s possible, but it is stupid to depend on that. So is everyone satisfied with “we will figure out something next year” approach?

 

[Chukarhawk]

I don’t think we have a snowballs chance in hell of seeing a top 5 QB at 16.

Howell is our QBotF. I’m not saying that is a good thing or bad thing but, I’d be shocked if we grabbed another QB.

they're taking Penix at 16 if he's there. He won't be though. Penix will be the undisputed best QB out of this draft. I'm sure of it.

 

[WarHawks]

Finding a QB1 late in the draft is a fools errand. It’s possible, but it is stupid to depend on that. So is everyone satisfied with “we will figure out something next year?

It appears so. It has been that way for years now. I for one am not going to get my hopes up.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

It appears so. It has been that way for years now. I for one am not going to get my hopes up.

Hoping is not going to work. If you want McCarthy, the Vikings will trade up to #11. Jump ahead of them to #9.

Most people here seem to think….

A) Howell is the answer, or
B) Try to get lucky with a late round pick.

 

[Chawker]

What if, Seattle was to trade out of the first round ?

Seattle trades first round #16 and pick #179 to Carolina for picks #33 and pick # 39 both high second round selections.

Cheers

 

[CactusJack]

The rumor is that Poles has only 3 players graded blue-chip. He will try to trade down if they are gone. Bears have only 4 picks. He could trade down a few spots and get a very good edge rusher plus a second or third round pick to take a WR. I want to trade with the Seahawks and take Powers-Johnson at #16.

That's not at all realistic.

The Hawks aren't trading up in the first. They haven't done that under John. I don't think they're in love with the QB's enough in this draft to make a move like that. That's a big reason for why they made the trade for Howell.

The Hawks will either pick at 16 or move back.

 

[chris98251]

What you need to ask if you were John, Howell if he was entering the draft how would you rank him up against those other QB's, now add he has a NFL year of experience to that. Also you got to choose him and bring him to your team after watching him compete in the NFL. You didn't hope that 1 out of 6 fell to you and you had to make due.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

That's not at all realistic.

The Hawks aren't trading up in the first. They haven't done that under John. I don't think they're in love with the QB's enough in this draft to make a move like that. That's a big reason for why they made the trade for Howell.

The Hawks will either pick at 16 or move back.

Yeah, that’s probably right, but are you comfortable with that? That is another way of asking whether you’d like the Seahawks spending the next 2-3 years testing whether Howell is the QB1? Personally, I like Bo Nix better than McCarthy or Penix, but, in any case, do think this is the draft to get a QB.

 

[sutz]

What if, Seattle was to trade out of the first round ?

Seattle trades first round #16 and pick #179 to Carolina for picks #33 and pick # 39 both high second round selections.

Cheers

I would jump all over that shit.