Seahawks post Senior Bowl 2024 mock draft

[chris98251]

You can get perfect QB's undrafted, the 6th round or the last player in the draft, depends if you want to be blinded by mediots or not. Purdy, Warner and Brady all Modern era QB's that have been plucked, two will be in the HOF.

 

[Chevy]

You can get perfect QB's undrafted, the 6th round or the last player in the draft, depends if you want to be blinded by mediots or not. Purdy, Warner and Brady all Modern era QB's that have been plucked, two will be in the HOF.

With that rational you can get perfect players at every position in the rounds 6th and 7th. Way too many outliers who are former All-Pro/Pro Bowl players. You want a future Hall of Fame CB like Richard Sherman, then yeah wait until the 5th round and don't spend a top-10 pick on Witherspoon.

 

[chris98251]

What I am saying is a good talent evaluator can find guys that are not in Championship programs, in the media, or on a top 25 program.

 

[Chevy]

What I am saying is a good talent evaluator can find guys that are not in Championship programs, in the media, or on a top 25 program.

The best scouting teams don't hit for a 400 batting average on the draft. So trading down to have a bunch of 5th, 6th, and 7th round draft picks does not = any good players for even the best GMs. Yeah its easy to pull outliers over 20 years. How many Pro Bowlers were drafted in rounds 6 and 7 in the last two years?

 

[Seattle Person]

You can get perfect QB's undrafted, the 6th round or the last player in the draft, depends if you want to be blinded by mediots or not. Purdy, Warner and Brady all Modern era QB's that have been plucked, two will be in the HOF.

Yeah...not good odds.

 

[Jegpeg]

There is no certain star in the draft. The higher the pick the better the odds. It wasn't just the midia that didn't spot the talent of Tom Brady and the likes it was the scouting group of every NFL team.
With QB such a premium position the odds go down quickly especially if you are looking for a player to be ready week 1. I can not think of one QB drafted outside the top 3 overall that was drafted with the expectation to be the week 1 starter. The best QB drafted in the second round by a mile is Jalen Hurts, who only got to start at the back end of his rookie season.
Trading Geno to get Spencer Rattler is the equivelent of selling the house and spending all the money on lottery tickets. Nice if it pays off but almost certain to end in tears. If the front office are convinced Rattler has a decent chance of being out QBOTF we should either trade down or use a 2025 pick to get him and plan to have him as Geno's backup this season with the hope of him starting either late in the season or in 2025, if he outplays Geno pre season thats an unexpected bonus.

 

[Chevy]

There is no certain star in the draft. The higher the pick the better the odds. It wasn't just the midia that didn't spot the talent of Tom Brady and the likes it was the scouting group of every NFL team.
With QB such a premium position the odds go down quickly especially if you are looking for a player to be ready week 1. I can not think of one QB drafted outside the top 3 overall that was drafted with the expectation to be the week 1 starter. The best QB drafted in the second round by a mile is Jalen Hurts, who only got to start at the back end of his rookie season.
Trading Geno to get Spencer Rattler is the equivelent of selling the house and spending all the money on lottery tickets. Nice if it pays off but almost certain to end in tears. If the front office are convinced Rattler has a decent chance of being out QBOTF we should either trade down or use a 2025 pick to get him and plan to have him as Geno's backup this season with the hope of him starting either late in the season or in 2025, if he outplays Geno pre season thats an unexpected bonus.

Geno is not the long term answer at QB and paying 30+ million for a bridge QB is unwise. There is plenty of talk of outright cutting Geno this off-season, so it's prefered to trade him to gain some draft capital.

So Geno is like having a house we can longer afford, or don't want to continue to make payments on, because the value of the house is nowhere near worth what the mortgage payments are; due to a "balloon mortgage loan".

 

[Jegpeg]

Geno is not the long term answer at QB and paying 30+ million for a bridge QB is unwise. There is plenty of talk of outright cutting Geno this off-season, so it's prefered to trade him to gain some draft capital.

So Geno is like having a house we can longer afford, or don't want to continue to make payments on, because the value of the house is nowhere near worth what the mortgage payments are; due to a "balloon mortgage loan".

The problem is any house ready to live in is going to cost more (either more than $30m or a top 3 overall draft pick). Nothing wrong with finding a house on the cheap that needs a lot of work but we need to live in something in the meantime.

If we cut Geno and draft a QB as you and others are suggesting (though most of the are looking at who might be available at 16) who else do you expect to have in the merit order? Would the rookie be the expected starting QB or would it be an experianced QB we can get on the cheap (e.g. Lock?)

If we can sign someone on the cheap that we believe is good enough to be a bridge starting QB then the plan might have merit. Though I think Lock would be the only candidate here, as JS and th front office have much more idea of his quality than other teams.

If your proposal is we draft Rattler with the expectation he will be our starter this season I repeat my question has any team in the past drafted a QB outside the top 3 or so overall who was their planned week 1 starter?

 

[Hawkinaz]

Going on what Schneider and Macdonald have said when asked about Geno they mention both Geno and Lock saying Locks name first and are never positive, I don’t know if there is anything to that or if it’s a ploy to get a cheaper contract with Geno’s agent. Geno was always Pete’s guy not Schneider’s. I have thought it was 50/50 about Geno staying now I think he will be released

the QB free agent market will be lean this year
1. Cousins
2. Mayfield

3. possibly Fields

4. Jacoby Brissett


i put spacing between the players to signify a difference in tiers. I am not sold on the Bears drafting Williams I feel the Bears are hoping a team will offer a ridiculous trade that would satisfy their fan base

 

[12forlife]

Going on what Schneider and Macdonald have said when asked about Geno they mention both Geno and Lock saying Locks name first and are never positive, I don’t know if there is anything to that or if it’s a ploy to get a cheaper contract with Geno’s agent. Geno was always Pete’s guy not Schneider’s. I have thought it was 50/50 about Geno staying now I think he will be released

the QB free agent market will be lean this year
1. Cousins
2. Mayfield

3. possibly Fields

4. Jacoby Brissett


i put spacing between the players to signify a difference in tiers. I am not sold on the Bears drafting Williams I feel the Bears are hoping a team will offer a ridiculous trade that would satisfy their fan base

Also Wilson

 

[Chevy]

The problem is any house ready to live in is going to cost more (either more than $30m or a top 3 overall draft pick). Nothing wrong with finding a house on the cheap that needs a lot of work but we need to live in something in the meantime.

If we cut Geno and draft a QB as you and others are suggesting (though most of the are looking at who might be available at 16) who else do you expect to have in the merit order? Would the rookie be the expected starting QB or would it be an experianced QB we can get on the cheap (e.g. Lock?)

If we can sign someone on the cheap that we believe is good enough to be a bridge starting QB then the plan might have merit. Though I think Lock would be the only candidate here, as JS and th front office have much more idea of his quality than other teams.

If your proposal is we draft Rattler with the expectation he will be our starter this season I repeat my question has any team in the past drafted a QB outside the top 3 or so overall who was their planned week 1 starter?

Okay so I don't think you understood balloon mortgage loan reference.

I do think Lock is a much better bridge QB, because he will be $25 million cheaper.

So with your rational, we should also re-sign Brooks to a $15 million a year contract, because there is no guarantee that a rookie MLB will be better than Brooks because he will be a project. And we should re-sign OG Lewis to a $15 million a year contract because there is no guarantee that a 1st round or 2nd round rookie will be better. Lets just run it back with last years roster, and draft BPA this year?

 

[Jegpeg]

No issue cutting Brooks. Geno is different because QB is different virtually every offensive play goes through the QB and the QB is the leader of the team.

I am still waiting for one example were a team has employed that strategy in the past. (Unless the front office are completely happy with Lock as our starter for 2025, the media and most people on this board riduculed us for relying on Geno, in 2023 but the front office new a lot more about his skills than those outside the team).

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

No issue cutting Brooks. Geno is different because QB is different virtually every offensive play goes through the QB and the QB is the leader of the team.

I am still waiting for one example were a team has employed that strategy in the past. (Unless the front office are completely happy with Lock as our starter for 2025, the media and most people on this board riduculed us for relying on Geno, in 2023 but the front office new a lot more about his skills than those outside the team).

It really depends on how the new coaching staff and front office view the teams chances in 2024. If they think this is a competitive roster now and want to make a run at the playoffs, you keep Geno.

If they think there's a need for a roster reset, you cut Geno and sign Lock while drafting a rookie.

You also have to look at Geno's cap hit. It's not just is Geno a better QB. If you save $17m by cutting him and can sign Lock for $6-8m and then say bring back Brooks with the rest of Geno's savings, is that better for the team than just keeping Geno around?

Personally, I think they need a reset. Not a major one, but there are too many bad contracts on the salary cap right now. I would look at shedding those and trying to get a young QB to pair with Lock. If Lock fails miserably, you also have another chance at a young QB next year. Really, you just need to keep taking shots at a QB until one sticks IMO.

 

[Jegpeg]

It really depends on how the new coaching staff and front office view the teams chances in 2024. If they think this is a competitive roster now and want to make a run at the playoffs, you keep Geno.

If they think there's a need for a roster reset, you cut Geno and sign Lock while drafting a rookie.

You also have to look at Geno's cap hit. It's not just is Geno a better QB. If you save $17m by cutting him and can sign Lock for $6-8m and then say bring back Brooks with the rest of Geno's savings, is that better for the team than just keeping Geno around?

Personally, I think they need a reset. Not a major one, but there are too many bad contracts on the salary cap right now. I would look at shedding those and trying to get a young QB to pair with Lock. If Lock fails miserably, you also have another chance at a young QB next year. Really, you just need to keep taking shots at a QB until one sticks IMO.

Isn't Geno's $31m split into $17 dead money and $14m cap savings if we cut him? So Cap wise we will be $6-8m better off with Lock than Geno and I haven't seen enough from Lock to convince me he is that close to Geno in value.

If a reset means throw away 2024, expect to be in the race for the number 1 pick so if Rattler doesn't look like out QBOTF we can get one of the best QBs available in the 2025 draft I can see the logic but I am not comfortable with that. It would also be suicide for a new HC.

Any QB we draft will be a long shot to be NFL ready week 1, the likes of RW3 and Mac Jones are exceptions. If that wasn't the case they would be snapped up in the first few picks. I have not seen enough of Lock to be convinced he would be a top 25 starting QB (and I'm putting Geno in the 12-15 range). Two chances of a long shot hitting is still unlikely.

 

[Chevy]

No issue cutting Brooks. Geno is different because QB is different virtually every offensive play goes through the QB and the QB is the leader of the team.

I am still waiting for one example were a team has employed that strategy in the past. (Unless the front office are completely happy with Lock as our starter for 2025, the media and most people on this board riduculed us for relying on Geno, in 2023 but the front office new a lot more about his skills than those outside the team).

Justin Herbert, Mr. Still Waiting.

No one is "completely happy" with Lock as a starter. But Lock's job this year is to be the bridge QB. The following year or even mid-season the rookie QB has the opportunity to win the starting job. Geno money can be spent to greatly improve the team in the trenches.

 

[Chevy]

Isn't Geno's $31m split into $17 dead money and $14m cap savings if we cut him? So Cap wise we will be $6-8m better off with Lock than Geno and I haven't seen enough from Lock to convince me he is that close to Geno in value.

If a reset means throw away 2024, expect to be in the race for the number 1 pick so if Rattler doesn't look like out QBOTF we can get one of the best QBs available in the 2025 draft I can see the logic but I am not comfortable with that. It would also be suicide for a new HC.

Any QB we draft will be a long shot to be NFL ready week 1, the likes of RW3 and Mac Jones are exceptions. If that wasn't the case they would be snapped up in the first few picks. I have not seen enough of Lock to be convinced he would be a top 25 starting QB (and I'm putting Geno in the 12-15 range). Two chances of a long shot hitting is still unlikely.

It would not be suicide for a new HC. New HCs are given a buffer, in good organizations, to take their shots at QB. Also, it would be JS call on the QB situation not the new HC.

No one is saying a rookie QB is going to start for the Seahawks week 1, except you.

 

[Jegpeg]

Justin Herbert, Mr. Still Waiting.

No one is "completely happy" with Lock as a starter. But Lock's job this year is to be the bridge QB. The following year or even mid-season the rookie QB has the opportunity to win the starting job. Geno money can be spent to greatly improve the team in the trenches.

The essence of this debate is should we dump Geno and draft a rookie. If anyone else mentioned who they expect the starting QB to be I missed it other than one post that we would have two bites finding a QB capable of starting this season. If everyone else is expecting Lock (assuming we resign him) is gong to be the starting QB then all we are differing on is how good we think Lock is.

I have consistently said "unless the front office believe Lock is a capable starter" I haven't seen enough to convince me of that but I haven't seen him in practise, I trust the front office to make the correct decision there.

Regarding Herbert, he started the season as Taylor's back-up and when Taylor was injured ceased his chance. If the proposed strategy is to start Lock rather than start a rookie it is a reasonably comparable situation. However, I think Taylor was a better option then than Lock is now. Taylor was signed at 2.9% of cap, which is the equivalent of $7m in 2024. Over the cap value Lock at $2.3m. Herbert was also picked higher in the draft than we would expect to be able to reach, so even the 2020 Chargers had put a lot more resources into the QB position than is being proposed that we do by cutting Geno, unless we get someone like Joe Flacco as a bridge QB.

 

[Chevy]

The essence of this debate is should we dump Geno and draft a rookie. If anyone else mentioned who they expect the starting QB to be I missed it other than one post that we would have two bites finding a QB capable of starting this season. If everyone else is expecting Lock (assuming we resign him) is gong to be the starting QB then all we are differing on is how good we think Lock is.

I have consistently said "unless the front office believe Lock is a capable starter" I haven't seen enough to convince me of that but I haven't seen him in practise, I trust the front office to make the correct decision there.

Regarding Herbert, he started the season as Taylor's back-up and when Taylor was injured ceased his chance. If the proposed strategy is to start Lock rather than start a rookie it is a reasonably comparable situation. However, I think Taylor was a better option then than Lock is now. Taylor was signed at 2.9% of cap, which is the equivalent of $7m in 2024. Over the cap value Lock at $2.3m. Herbert was also picked higher in the draft than we would expect to be able to reach, so even the 2020 Chargers had put a lot more resources into the QB position than is being proposed that we do by cutting Geno, unless we get someone like Joe Flacco as a bridge QB.

YOUR quote "Any QB we draft will be a long shot to be NFL ready week 1". I didn't say a rookie QB would be ready week one or even start year one, on the initial post. Nor did anyone else.

You asked for an example, I gave you a legit one. And now, to save face, you are revising your initial to do list for an example.

The new coaching staff has given Lock praise, when they didn't need to considering he is a free agent. So that shows they still have interest in him.

We can also make moves to trade up into the top-10, it's not unrealistic.

 

[Jegpeg]

YOUR quote "Any QB we draft will be a long shot to be NFL ready week 1". I didn't say a rookie QB would be ready week one or even start year one, on the initial post. Nor did anyone else.

You asked for an example, I gave you a legit one. And now, to save face, you are revising your initial to do list for an example.

The new coaching staff has given Lock praise, when they didn't need to considering he is a free agent. So that shows they still have interest in him.

We can also make moves to trade up into the top-10, it's not unrealistic.

The first line of your OP was "In this mock draft I have us trading Geno Smith to the Falcons for their 2nd round pick #43." That would leave us with no QBs under contract. You gave no indication that your assumption was that we would resign Lock and promote him to starter.

Sorry I did not read you mind and made the wrong guess when I assumed the only QB that would definately be under contract under your premise was our presumed starter but I think it was a reasonable one under the circumstances.

 

[Chevy]

The first line of your OP was "In this mock draft I have us trading Geno Smith to the Falcons for their 2nd round pick #43." That would leave us with no QBs under contract. You gave no indication that your assumption was that we would resign Lock and promote him to starter.

Sorry I did not read you mind and made the wrong guess when I assumed the only QB that would definately be under contract under your premise was our presumed starter but I think it was a reasonable one under the circumstances.

Okay, mind reading is not easy. My bad on not including the re-signing of Lock in the initial post.

Thanks for the good debate, even if we have different thoughts on the QB situation going forward.