Seahawks plan for 2023, February edition (pre-combine)

AgentDib

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Comments always welcome. This time I'm going to assume that we re-sign Geno again and feel pressure to make short-term moves that help us to make the playoffs again in 2023 at the expense of 2024 and beyond.

Release Jackson, Jefferson and Woods
Neither Jackson nor Jefferson played well last season, and Woods was only in on 1/4th of our defensive snaps at age 35. These three cuts cost 8.51m in dead cap but clear another 15m beyond that in cap space.

Extend Harris and Nwosu
Shelby Harris was one of our only good defensive lineman last year, but his contract was heavily backloaded and so his 2023 cap hit is pricey at 12.2m. There is no guaranteed money left in his deal so he would be interested in a reasonable 3 year extension. That would allow us to shift much of his cap hit into the future while giving him guaranteed dollars now. After a restructure, his cap hits would look like 6m/12m/15m. Uchenna Nwosu also gets a two year extension that lowers his current cap hit by $6m.

Re-sign UFAs Geno, Lock, Muse and Tinker
Geno gets a backloaded three year deal: $90m over 3 years with 48m guaranteed structured as 17m/30m/43m. Drew Lock is given 3m to return as the backup and accepts. Carson Tinker and Tanner Muse get $0.9m each to return.

Re-sign most of our RFAs/ERFAs
Ryan Neal (RFA), Michael Jackson (ERFA), Jon Rhattigan (ERFA), Myles Adams (ERFA), Godwin Igwebuike (ERFA), Cody Thompson (ERFA)

Sign UFAs from other teams
The two top targets are Dalvin Tomlinson from Minnesota to play NT, and Dre'mont Jones from Denver as a traditional 3-4 DE who can play 4tech.

Tomlinson is a versatile 28 year old interior defensive lineman who can play 0T/1T/3T and is good against both the run and the pass. His deal would be for $35m over 3 years, structured as $6m/12m/17m.

Jones is an excellent 3-4 defensive end who is just 26 and was rated by PFF as having the 11th best pass rush win rate from 2019-2022. He has liked several anti-Russ posts on twitter recently so he's probably looking for a change of scenery. His deal would be $55m over 4 years, structured as $6m/13m/16m/20m.

We also need LB depth with Brooks being injured so we'll also add Denzel Perryman from Las Vegas for $8m over 2 years, structured as $3m/5m. Perryman is a solid run defender who can fill in for Brooks until he is ready to go and then can see time as the second ILB on neutral or rushing downs.

Reasonable Draft
Two even trades: Seahawks trade #20 to Vikings for #23 and #119, Seahawks trade #123 and #156 to Patriots for #107

#5. Jalen Carter, DT Georgia. Carter was still available due to three QBs going in the top four. The interior of our DL suddenly looks like extremely promising with the addition of Carter to Tomlinson, Jones and Harris. Consensus rank: 1

#23. Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee. Hyatt is an excellent slot receiver prospect with elite speed, athleticism, and route running and very good hands. He has an adjustment to NFL offenses after playing only in the spread at Tennessee, but can immediately provide a serious deep threat to divert attention from Metcalf and Lockett. Consensus: 27

#37. Nolan Smith, OLB Georgia. Smith has plenty of upside as a pass rusher but can provide immediate help against the run. He's a violent, physical tackler who plays much larger than his weight, and channels that intensity into leadership in the locker room. Consensus: 32

#52. Cody Mauch, IOL ND State. Mauch slides inside to LG where his athleticism is perfect for a zone blocking scheme and his lack of length isn't an issue. His versatility is a huge plus, as he got reps at center at the Senior Bowl in addition to playing tackle in college. Consensus: 52

#83. Jack Campbell, LB Iowa. Campbell was the best ILB in college football and will make an immediate impact. He doesn't have the athletic speed or agility that we would ideally like, but he can definitely get off of blocks and make tackles. Consensus: 71

#107. Kenny McIntosh, RB Georgia. Dual threat RB who was a very good pass catching back in college and can both act as a third down back as well as taking some short yardage snaps. He's also a solid kick returner. Consensus: 107

#119. Olusegun Oluwatimi, C Michigan. Oluwatimi was the starter for four years at Michigan and brings a lot of experience and football IQ to the position. He's a good zone scheme prospect with average strength but good agility and pass blocking technique. Consensus: 115

#153. Anthony Johnson, CB Virgina. Johnson has the size and length that the Seahawks like and moves well for his size. He helped himself with a good senior bowl week and a pick six in the game. He should be able to play special teams immediately. Consensus: 160

#198. Jerrod Clark, NT Coastal Carolina. Clark is a prototypical large run stuffer who could play either 0tech or 1tech. He's an ideal depth piece to rotate with Tomlinson initially and then to see if he can develop into a starter down the road.

UDFA
Following the draft we sign 20+ UDFAs including the following who went undrafted:
- Aidan O'Connell, QB Purdue
- Tavion Thomas, RB Utah
- Davis Allen, TE Clemson
- Atonio Mafi, IOL UCLA
- Nick Brahms, OC Auburn
- PJ Mustipher, DL Penn State
- Eku Leota, OLB Auburn
- Noah Daniels, CB TCU

The Roster
1676404289103

Thoughts
Expectations for 2023 should be playoffs with this roster.

The offense should be improved with good long-term pieces at OL, promising additions in Hyatt and McIntosh, and stability at QB with Geno. The defensive line is massively upgraded with Jalen Carter, Dalvin Tomlinson and Dre'Mont Jones supplementing Shelby Harris. Safety and ILB would still be question marks due to Brooks and Adams recovering from injury, but Ryan Neal and Jack Campbell could hold down the fort there. With some development from the young players the defense could be quite good.

This plan does leave the 2024 roster in much worse shape due to the numerous escalating cap hits of around $40m. We'd need to pay for it by cutting Adams and Diggs, and count on the cap going up again significantly.
 
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Hollandhawk

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Love the post, and the effort that went into it. I don't know enough to argue with any of it.
 

Ozzy

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First off all love this! I keep going back and forth with Geno but his second half numbers, him leading the league in turnover worth throws etc just push me from paying him that much money. Maybe he gets even better with another year in the system and has another great year or years but its just as likely he is much more like the second half of the year. I just think you set yourself up to draft in the top 5 and try to do what Cincinatti and Philly are doing with building your roster while you save money at QB

But if they do trust Geno and go that route then this is very good
 

bileever

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Good thoughts. What's your opinion about re-signing Poona Ford or Cody Barton?
 
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AgentDib

AgentDib

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I just think you set yourself up to draft in the top 5 and try to do what Cincinatti and Philly are doing with building your roster while you save money at QB
I lean that way as well due to the rarity of having a pick this high but it's tricky. There's also the unknown of how much they like Lock.
Good thoughts. What's your opinion about re-signing Poona Ford or Cody Barton?
I expect them to get better offers elsewhere compared to the very low values that I would be comfortable paying them. In this simulation I'm replacing Barton with Perryman and Ford with Jones, and then also drafting another ILB.
 
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