Russell Wilson By-The-Numbers: 2012 vs. 2013

[gulliver]

I used Pro Football Reference to collect information on Russell's 2012 performance vs 2013 performance, and broke it down in an arrow chart by regular season, playoffs and all games. As the header indicates, this was done by taking the averages of each year's stats and calculating a relative % change between the two. Green arrow = good, red arrow = bad (usually).

It's hard to argue that Russell's performance has dropped off, but only by a bit. With fewer INTs and slightly worse QB performance, he has definitely become a BIT more of a game manager this year.

The reason I started it is because I thought we were missing that read option keeper spark that made us so dangerous last year. And while in games it does seem that RW and Bevell have abolished the keeper, I was surprised to see how close everything was to last year for the most part.

I suppose that, while the #s look pretty close YOY, two glaring differences are (1) his regular season rushing TDs (which netted us 28 more points last year than they have this year), and (2) his performance in the playoffs, where they are going much more conservative.

I admit I'm a big time Bevell skeptic, and have been really frustrated seeing us seemingly turn our backs on the RO keeper, as well as continually struggle in the red zone, but the data mitigates that somewhat, as depicted below.

 

[hawker232]

The only stat that matters in all of that is the wins, which is up by 18%. So I'm extremely content with his numbers.

 

[hgwellz12]

superb owl!

 

[CallMeADawg]

Well of course his passing numbers are down in the playoffs, we were down 20-0 to Atlanta heading into the second half of that game. On top of that, the New Orleans game was played in weather not conducive to the passing game and San Francisco has a pretty good defense, and we played our style of football in that game and WON IT.

His regular season numbers are the only column here worth reading; with the caveat that all bets are off in the Super Bowl.

 

[bigwrm]

I'm not concerned about Russell in the slightest, but if you're comparing years I think it would be more fair to isolate the 2nd half of last year. It obviously took him several games to get acclimated to the NFL, which I think artificially deflates his 2012 numbers.

 

[gulliver]

I'm not concerned about Russell in the slightest, but if you're comparing years I think it would be more fair to isolate the 2nd half of last year. It obviously took him several games to get acclimated to the NFL, which I think artificially deflates his 2012 numbers.

Perhaps, but it would have gotten too granular to look at halves of seasons...

 

[gulliver]

The only stat that matters in all of that is the wins, which is up by 18%. So I'm extremely content with his numbers.

I mean, nothing that has ever been said on .NET has ever impacted a game in the NFL.

But it's enjoyable for myself and others to look at the trajectory and see where we're going. My thought going into this was we're on a bad trajectory, but as demonstrated above, the slight decreases in performances in one area have been made up in another.

 

[formido]

Agreed about the read option keeper. I think turning read options into fake read options has been a major reason for dropping from #1 in offensive DVOA last year to merely top 10. Ends just crash down and ignore the fake now. A true threat of the read option opens up the passing game and Lynch's running game. Before the read option last year, Lynch was averaging just about the same YPC as he did this year. Post read option, it jumped to ver 5 ypc. In the play-offs, when Atlanta committed to stopping Lynch+read option, it massively opened up the passing game and Wilson threw for almost 400 yards, efficiently.

It's hugely disappointing to me that Seattle staff bought into the argument that the read option puts the QB at risk. Not all QBs are the same. Wilson has been far more at risk in the pocket. He's never taken a big shot on a planned run, but he's been teed off on in the pocket. Wilson is a smart runner with an RB's build. Do you think Kaepernick is ever going to get hurt on his planned runs? I don't. He never gets hit. It's just all huge value for SF's offense. And odds are just as low or lower that Wilson gets hurt. This decision has hamstrung Seattle's offense for very little gain in risk management. Along with Carroll's too-low tolerance for INTs, his tolerance for Wilson risk is too-low and misplaced.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Russ did not look good in the first half vs. SF pure and simple. Once Pete told him to make the decision on where to throw the ball more quickly, he turned it around rather nicely in the 2nd half IMO. I think that bodes well for the upcoming game.

 

[GeekHawk]

His INTs are up by -100%? His QB rating is down in the regular season and in the playoffs, but unchanged from last year? His pass TDs are down in the regular season and the playoffs, but also unchanged? Umm, math?

 

[gulliver]

His INTs are up by -100%? His QB rating is down in the regular season and in the playoffs, but unchanged from last year? His pass TDs are down in the regular season and the playoffs, but also unchanged? Umm, math?

Um, reading comprehension?

In my post, I said red = bad, green = good (usually). Green is an improvement, red is a regression or at least lesser than last year.

To 0%'s reading as up/down, they're rounded. So 0.4%, e.g., rounds to 0%

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Atlanta and Washington had nowhere near the defenses that New Orleans and San Francisco had this year. And neither game last year was played in a tsunami. So of course his playoff numbers are down.

But yes, he's had a mild sophomore slump this season. His DYAR for 2014 was 779 and his DVOA was 16%. For 2013, his DYAR was 872 and his DVOA was 19.7%. Both years that made him a top 10 QB. Not bad for the kids first two years in the NFL. He'll just improve from here on out.

 

[EntiatHawk]

Gulliver, good stuff. Here to young Mr Wilson having a superb Superb Owl

 

[brimsalabim]

two observations on the RO this season.
1. the concern for RW taking hits came from the first meeting with the miners after Russ was planted AFTER a hand off and not carrying the ball. Aldon Smith's assignment on the RO was to hit Russell as hard as he could whether Russ had the ball or not. The league ok'd this.
2. Teams began using a spy and we didn't restructure the plays to account for him. Take out the spy and the play works.

 

[AF_Hawk]

The line play (injuries, no protection) and injuries to the receiving corp. definitely played a part.

 

[KARAVARUS]

IM WRITING THIS IN BOLD BECAUSE I WANT IT TO BE KNOWN THAT RUSSELL WILL WIN THIS SUPER BOWL, AND BE ITS MVP BASED ON HIS LEGS AND WHAT HE DOES TO THE DONKEYS WITH THEM.

 

[gulliver]

A lot of good suggestions here guys as far as what's to "blame" for a very minor drop-off. My big takeaway really is that things aren't as bad as I thought.

On the option keepers and designed runs, though--why can Kaep mince the #1 defense in the league on the ground, but we can't cut Russ loose? Is it JUST the OL? Seems hard to believe.

Personally, if we could pair the #1 D with the RO keeper, Marshawn, a decent passing game and Percy--my gawd, can you imagine the havoc we'd wreak? We'd be in the all-time powerhouse conversation.

 

[Rocket]

Aldon Smith's assignment on the RO was to hit Russell as hard as he could whether Russ had the ball or not. The league ok'd this.

The league ok'd this ? :shock: Sez who? :?:

 

[Smellyman]

Meh. He was a top MVP candidate after NO game.

weather got worse, Pete and Bevell got super conservative.

not concerned in the least

 

[HawkWow]

Agreed about the read option keeper. I think turning read options into fake read options has been a major reason for dropping from #1 in offensive DVOA last year to merely top 10. Ends just crash down and ignore the fake now. A true threat of the read option opens up the passing game and Lynch's running game. Before the read option last year, Lynch was averaging just about the same YPC as he did this year. Post read option, it jumped to ver 5 ypc. In the play-offs, when Atlanta committed to stopping Lynch+read option, it massively opened up the passing game and Wilson threw for almost 400 yards, efficiently.

It's hugely disappointing to me that Seattle staff bought into the argument that the read option puts the QB at risk. Not all QBs are the same. Wilson has been far more at risk in the pocket. He's never taken a big shot on a planned run, but he's been teed off on in the pocket. Wilson is a smart runner with an RB's build. Do you think Kaepernick is ever going to get hurt on his planned runs? I don't. He never gets hit. It's just all huge value for SF's offense. And odds are just as low or lower that Wilson gets hurt. This decision has hamstrung Seattle's offense for very little gain in risk management. Along with Carroll's too-low tolerance for INTs, his tolerance for Wilson risk is too-low and misplaced.

Spot on. In the past 2 games alone, we've seen RW forego easy rushing 1st downs, instead opting for low percentage passes to covered receivers. All good, because it worked. But we are pushing our luck. If Wilson ever does get hurt, it will likely not be while scrambling. It will be in a collapsing pocket that he is uncomfortable stepping up into.

What's rather ironic is the constant comparisons to Fran Tarkenton when complimenting RW. What most fail to understand, is the highlights we see of "Tarkenton's wizardry" are exactly that, Highlights.

Viking fans will tell you Tark spent way too much time running backwards and frequently getting caught behind the line for huge losses or senseless penalties as the O-line is forced to hold their positions and sometimes hold their opponents.

Let's not go there, Russ. No reason to be an exact replica of FT. Take the easy stuff or throw the rock away when nothing's there. Happy as can be with you... but you can be better. I am certain.