I honestly don't know what to expect from this year's version of the 49ers. Will Trent Williams throw our DL and linebackers around like so many rag dolls, as usual? Will SF rushing attack bully the Seahawks for 5+ yards per attempt, like usual? Will Purdy and the Niners convert 3rd downs around a 50% rate while Seattle converts at 25% or less? At least we won't have Deebo or McCaffrey to contend with in this game.
I looked at box scores the last few years for trends. The 49ers swept Pete Carroll's Seahawks in 2022 and 2023, with 5+ YPC rushing average, 170+ rushing yards per game, and 40-50% 3rd down conversions.
The Seahawks finally got a win last year, holding SF to 130 yards rushing at 4.9 YPC (Finally, below 5 yards a carry!) and slightly outgaining the 49ers 289-277, courtesy of Geno's 13 yard scramble for the winning TD. MikeMac's defense limited the 49ers enough that even Grubb's offense could eke out a ROAD win.
Recent history says, for the Seahawks to win, MikeMac's defense will need to again limit the 49ers rushing attack to 130 yards or less, keep them under 300 yards of total offense, while the Seahawks have a rushing attack that gets 4+ YPC on 20+ attempts, and a balanced run/pass offense that generates a 40% or better 3rd down conversion rate. I'm looking forward to seeing if the upgraded offensive line can avoid being dominated by the 49ers front 7, with a rushing attack that keeps SF honest and pass pro that gives Darnold enough time to complete passes. Can Kubiak's offense get the Hawks over the top?
I know this all seems so simple, just basic hardnosed football. MikeMac has had two offseasons to get his type of players in place on both sides of the ball, and a first-choice OC that matches his philosophy. Yes, there are wildcards, like turnovers, big plays on special teams, injuries, etc. What I hope to see is that Seattle can finally match up with the 49ers physicality, on both sides of the ball, give the skill players enough holes, time and space to do their thing, and win by two scores. Will Milroe get a couple Tush Push first downs on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1? That will be a great tell.
