Good to hear you weigh in Tical. I agree with almost all of it, and should have made mention of a lot of the stuff you covered (Christine Michael, Helfet, Turbin, etc.).
Regarding the fake punt, I will admit that it surprised me, and Pete admitted that it surprised him. But when we look at the details, it was actually not a high risk play at all.
Seattle was unstoppable in the 2nd half. What would their win probability be if you gave them the ball with 2:50 left and only needing 3 points to win? While playing indoors with a 90% accuracy kicker? What would Seattle's chances to win be? Probably somewhere around 70%, I would guess. Meaning that the Rams win probably drops to somewhere around 30% if they punt.
If you fake the punt and miss, you concede the field goal but also make it difficult for Seattle to run the clock. The Rams had two timeouts, and even if the punt fails, they would very likely get the ball back with a chance to win. Even if they blow the fake, they are probably still sitting around 20% WP. Unless they give up a TD, then it might be 10% WP.
So if you look at the difference between punting and failing on the fake, it's only about 10 to 20 percent swing in win probability most likely. This compared to the enormous swing in WP by converting, a
41% WP boost at the time. I'm sure we'll see a post on this over at advanced NFL stats this next week.
But the most important detail is this. Seattle did not have their defense on the field, they had their kick coverage group out there. And Pete was totally out of timeouts. Even if Carroll had figured out what was coming 10 seconds before the snap, he would have been powerless to stop it. The only thing that could have caused this play to fail was a drop by the receiver, more or less.
The illusion of risk was just that, an illusion. And that illusion of risk is precisely the reason it worked. Pete didn't think Fisher would do it. Great coaching by Fisher there.
As far as Pete, he would probably do well to assume that Fisher is always going to have some trick up his sleeve on every special teams play. After all he's done to us, there is no excuse anymore for getting hoodwinked.