RolandDeschain":1jaighbu said:There's VERY strong evidence that NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down a LOT more than they do currently.Tical21":1jaighbu said:You don't go for it on 4th and 2 from your own 40 or wherever we were. Almost ever. You don't get it, game is over. You don't even do that in college.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upsho ... 0002&abg=1
http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/g ... 53717.html
http://www.sbnation.com/2014/9/8/611961 ... n-4th-down
http://eaglesrewind.com/2013/08/13/nfl- ... 4th-and-1/
No, what you have is statistical evidence that based on the current number of attempts on 4th down extrapolated to a more extensive number, success rate on 4th down would appear to suggest that teams would increase their "expected win rate" by attempting it more.
Of course, one look at the success rate of 4th down conversions tells you all you need to know - 24 teams had a better conversion rate on 4th down than third down in 2013. The "VERY strong" evidence is based on an absurdly high and unsustainable conversion rate (16 teams converted more than 50% of their fourth downs. ZERO teams converted 50% of their third downs).
What you would find is that teams attempt to go for it on 4th down when they have a better chance of making it and little to lose, artificially inflating the statistics. If more teams went for it, conversion rate would regress to the mean and the points added by attempting to convert would result in teams regularly giving away free points to the opposition (attempting to convert a 4th down from your own 30 yard line means you either have another opportunity to drive 70 yards to score... or you give the opposition 3 points for free.
Statistics are only useful if you understand that as soon as you start changing one measure (e.g. frequency of 4th down attempts), they are garbage.
It's like analysing a QB's completion percentage at different parts of the field and hypothesising that since (for example) Brees completes 70+% of his passes thrown everywhere except at the left sideline, where he completes just over 55% and deciding that he could be more effective if he simply stopped throwing the ball to the left sideline. The reality is what we seen against Green Bay - ignore one part of the field and your defenders can key in on the other parts of the field, and completion percentage drops across the board.
You put too much stock in statistics.