Mariners Offseason Thread 2014-2015

[Uncle Si]

Actually Safeco Field projects better for him than his home park last year. That has nothing to do with my dislike of this signing.

Huh?

Cruz has hit like .230 in Safeco, how does that project better than Camden?


ALL free agents are risky, especially when you have to overpay and/or add on years to get them. But this is the MLB, there is no salary cap, and it's not our money...........so who cares if we overpaid? If we don't overpay, then we don't get the player. Period.

Players don't come to Seattle because it has a rich winning tradition and is in the WS every year, so they'll take less money for a chance at a ring.

I'm just fine with this signing, because Cruz has always hit, before and after he was busted..........and more importantly we didn't have to give up anything to get him.

and....he's not Kendry Morales.

My only concern here is whether he plays the field. Torii Hunter is out there if we need a a defensive outfielder. Cruz should DH, maybe play 100 innings or so to get LoMo at bats.

 

[jkitsune]

The Cruz pick still costs us a draft pick, so it's not just money we're giving up.

Would rather give up a 21st overall draft pick than walker or paxton!

True, but if the Mariners are done with the offseason after signing Cruz, then it won't be enough. They still have moves to make so don't get your hopes up of Walker staying just yet.

The best part of the Cruz deal is that maybe now they won't panic and feel the urgent need to trade Walker in an overpay. They can sit back and look for the right deal.

Personally, I hope they keep Walker, but they do need to make a couple more moves. You really want Nelson Cruz as the full time RF this year?

I don't think anyone wants Nelson Cruz as a full-time fielder, but he is tremendously better than what we've been fielding in that roster spot so far. Agreed, though, I hope Nelson Cruz is a) the first of several moves this offseason and b) relieves some pressure that might have led to a panic trade.

Also, can we all agree that trading Iwakuma for Cespedes straight up would be one of the worst trades the M's have made in quite a while?

 

[HawkFan72]

Also, can we all agree that trading Iwakuma for Cespedes straight up would be one of the worst trades the M's have made in quite a while?

Yeah, I can agree with you on that.

The M's pitching would be in serious trouble this year if they dumped Iwakuma.

 

[Uncle Si]

OK, you guys must all be right. There's nothing negative this. Great signing! Go M's! Everything they do is gold!

atta girl... maybe squeeze the pillow a little tighter.


the move obviously comes with the risks that he will age faster than the contract. But for a team looking to make a playoff push, tell me how this is a bad (i'm sorry "typical Mariners" move)

He very well might be a great addition for 2015. If this was a one or two year deal I'd probably be happy. Seriously, he will be a great addition for this year if he can hit .250 and hit 20 HRs.

It's the injury history, the fact that he adds nothing defensively, and that we are paying him for a career year that bums me out. If anyone is expecting the player they saw last year, they are going to be sorely disappointed. He's more of a 25 HR hitter than 40 HRs. He has the potential, but last year was just the outlier of it all coming together. I don't think it is sustainable.

This year I'll probably be happy and cheering for him. I hope he proves me wrong. I just think this thing turns ugly by 2016 and then he becomes the overpaid worthless guy that everyone complains about.

So I'm glad you guys are happy. I really am. And I hope you're right. I just can't get on board with this one. I'm tired of seeing the Mariners pay good money to aging hitters to ground into inning-ending double plays.

all very good concerns. although the number of plate appearances he's been getting even when missing time is positive.

I too worry about the outfield (he played over 500 innings for the Orioles last year in the LF). His contract isnt crippling (15 mill is nearly 3 mill less than V-Mart, and he's a couple years younger). We are paying him more closer to 25 HRs, than 40, so for the money we paid, if he hits 25 HRs thats well worth it.

 

[CurryStopstheRuns]

OK, you guys must all be right. There's nothing negative this. Great signing! Go M's! Everything they do is gold!

atta girl... maybe squeeze the pillow a little tighter.


the move obviously comes with the risks that he will age faster than the contract. But for a team looking to make a playoff push, tell me how this is a bad (i'm sorry "typical Mariners" move)

He very well might be a great addition for 2015. If this was a one or two year deal I'd probably be happy. Seriously, he will be a great addition for this year if he can hit .250 and hit 20 HRs.

It's the injury history, the fact that he adds nothing defensively, and that we are paying him for a career year that bums me out. If anyone is expecting the player they saw last year, they are going to be sorely disappointed. He's more of a 25 HR hitter than 40 HRs. He has the potential, but last year was just the outlier of it all coming together. I don't think it is sustainable.

I think our difference of opinion comes from how we are looking at this. You are looking at this year. I'm looking at the life of the contract.

This year I'll probably be happy and cheering for him. I hope he proves me wrong. I just think this thing turns ugly by 2016 and then he becomes the overpaid worthless guy that everyone complains about.

So I'm glad you guys are happy. I really am. And I hope you're right. I just can't get on board with this one. I'm tired of seeing the Mariners pay good money to aging hitters to ground into inning-ending double plays.

What recent injury history. Take away the 50 game PED suspension and he has played in 159 games each of the last three seasons.

Minus the suspension Cruz has missed nine games in three seasons and I would wager that those were regular rest days.

 

[HawkFan72]

Actually Safeco Field projects better for him than his home park last year. That has nothing to do with my dislike of this signing.

Huh?

Cruz has hit like .230 in Safeco, how does that project better than Camden?

Though the move to Seattle’s Safeco Field would appear to be a detriment to his right-handed pop, both ESPN Park Factors and Baseball Prospectus Park Factors indicated that in 2014, Orioles Park at Camden Yards was actually less homer-friendly for right-handed bats than Safeco Field. That’s not to say Cruz will repeat his career year, but the drop-off could be less significant than some are anticipating.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/mariners-to-sign-nelson-cruz.html

 

[Uncle Si]

one thing about this move that has me both optimistic and a bit anxious: this move was not made in a vacuum. It is step 2 (if we count Seager as 1) of what has to be a concerted plan to go all in.

Cruz on its own isnt a great deal. Its right handed pop at a decent price (although 3 years wouldve been so much better). But it signals intent.

Where that intent goes next will be very interesting.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

My only concern here is whether he plays the field. Torii Hunter is out there if we need a a defensive outfielder. Cruz should DH, maybe play 100 innings or so to get LoMo at bats.

Oh most definitely primarily a DH. With Jackson now in CF and Ackley in left, we have a pretty decent outfield, so I don't see Cruz playing too much out in the field. I would like to see an every say RF'er signed, not a huge name, but a veteran that can rotate with the younger guys.

 

[HawkFan72]

What recent injury history. Take away the 50 game PED suspension and he has played in 159 games each of the last three seasons.

Minus the suspension Cruz has missed nine games in three seasons and I would wager that those were regular rest days.

And he's been playing more DH the last 3 years. That definitely helps. If he spends most of his time at DH, you're right, it won't be as much of a concern.

But when he used to play the field a lot, he got hurt a lot.

I'm sure he won't have any injury problems for his age 34–38 seasons.

 

[Uncle Si]

What recent injury history. Take away the 50 game PED suspension and he has played in 159 games each of the last three seasons.

Minus the suspension Cruz has missed nine games in three seasons and I would wager that those were regular rest days.

And he's been playing more DH the last 3 years. That definitely helps. If he spends most of his time at DH, you're right, it won't be as much of a concern.

But when he used to play the field a lot, he got hurt a lot.

I'm sure he won't have any injury problems for his age 34–38 seasons.

he played 500 innings in the outfield last year. Not to minimize concern, as I'd much rather have him strictly a DH.

This move needs to be coupled with a 4th outfielder, one more SP and ideally another bat

 

[HawkFan72]

one thing about this move that has me both optimistic and a bit anxious: this move was not made in a vacuum. It is step 2 (if we count Seager as 1) of what has to be a concerted plan to go all in.

Cruz on its own isnt a great deal. Its right handed pop at a decent price (although 3 years wouldve been so much better). But it signals intent.

Where that intent goes next will be very interesting.

Yes. If Cruz is the last step of the offseason then this signing is a failure. If it is a piece of other things to come then it might be worth it this year.

Word is that the O's offered 3 years and wouldn't budge. The M's had to offer a 4th year to get Cruz.

I really hope they have a few more moves to make. I was very happy with the Seager signing. The Cruz signing by itself is awful, but in context is might be very good depending how the rest of the offseason goes. At least for this year.

 

[Uncle Si]

one thing about this move that has me both optimistic and a bit anxious: this move was not made in a vacuum. It is step 2 (if we count Seager as 1) of what has to be a concerted plan to go all in.

Cruz on its own isnt a great deal. Its right handed pop at a decent price (although 3 years wouldve been so much better). But it signals intent.

Where that intent goes next will be very interesting.

Yes. If Cruz is the last step of the offseason then this signing is a failure. If it is a piece of other things to come then it might be worth it this year.

Word is that the O's offered 3 years and wouldn't budge. The M's had to offer a 4th year to get Cruz.

I really hope they have a few more moves to make. I was very happy with the Seager signing. The Cruz signing by itself is awful, but in context is might be very good depending how the rest of the offseason goes. At least for this year.

well, i'd disagree with "awful".. he's a massive upgrade at a position we needed upgrading.

However, if this is all we do, then I will be a bit disappointed come March

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I really hope they have a few more moves to make. I was very happy with the Seager signing. The Cruz signing by itself is awful, but in context is might be very good depending how the rest of the offseason goes. At least for this year.

It COULD be awful, but at least let's wait and see?

For now I'm happy that we went after a legitimate bat, as opposed to dumpster diving the Corey Hart's of the league for a power bat.

I also don't think Jack's going to go after any more big signings, maybe a veteran platooning outfielder and a couple back end starters. Could be wrong, but I'd be shocked if there was another big signing.

 

[HawkFan72]

I think this article sums everything up pretty well. This has all sides of the debate wrapped up nicely in a way that makes sense:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/...-a-year-too-late-but-that-doesnt-make-it-dumb

 

[CurryStopstheRuns]

Steamers and ZIps projects Cruz for 1.5 WAR this year. Sounds good.

You don't follow Mariners ball very closely because that projects 3.6 games better for our DH spot from last season. In case you forgot, or weren't watching, the Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. You do the math.

 

[HawkFan72]

Steamers and ZIps projects Cruz for 1.5 WAR this year. Sounds good.

You don't follow Mariners ball very closely because that projects 3.6 games better for our DH spot from last season. In case you forgot, or weren't watching, the Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. You do the math.

You think Cruz is the only player we could have gotten to improve the team by one win?

 

[Uncle Si]

Steamers and ZIps projects Cruz for 1.5 WAR this year. Sounds good.

You don't follow Mariners ball very closely because that projects 3.6 games better for our DH spot from last season. In case you forgot, or weren't watching, the Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. You do the math.

You think Cruz is the only player we could have gotten to improve the team by one win?

well thats the big question.

Who could improve the M's at one of their "need positions" (corner outfield, DH, 1B, + right handed) without giving up prospects.

The list is not long.

 

[HawkFan72]

Depends on the level of upgrade. Cruz is a bigger upgrade than the other guys available. But if we're just looking for an upgrade of one win to make the playoffs, I can give a list of younger and cheaper options.

I was told to do the math because Cruz is projected to be worth 1.5 wins. Apparently 1.5 wins is worth over $14 million to Curry.

 

[Uncle Si]

Depends on the level of upgrade. Cruz is a bigger upgrade than the other guys available. But if we're just looking for an upgrade of one win to make the playoffs, I can give a list of younger and cheaper options.

I was told to do the math because Cruz is projected to be worth 1.5 wins. Apparently 1.5 wins is worth over $14 million to Curry.

two things... WAR isnt an exact science, but Curry's point is solid.

two, WAR in terms of wins per $ is around 8mill. So, 1.5 would equal roughly 12 mill. Now, Cruz was a 3.9 WAR last season, so again, the money he is being paid is a relative value towards what he can bring.

 

[HawkFan72]

Depends on the level of upgrade. Cruz is a bigger upgrade than the other guys available. But if we're just looking for an upgrade of one win to make the playoffs, I can give a list of younger and cheaper options.

I was told to do the math because Cruz is projected to be worth 1.5 wins. Apparently 1.5 wins is worth over $14 million to Curry.

two things... WAR isnt an exact science, but Curry's point is solid.

two, WAR in terms of wins per $ is around 8mill. So, 1.5 would equal roughly 12 mill. Now, Cruz was a 3.9 WAR last season, so again, the money he is being paid is a relative value towards what he can bring.

I get that.

But I said that Cruz is projected for 1.5 WAR and Curry made it sound like a 4 year, $58 million contract was worth it for that because we missed the playoffs by one game last year.

I was just saying that there is a long list of players I can find that would get us 1 WAR that won't cost us 4 years and $58 million if that's all we're looking for.