Mariners Offseason Thread 2014-2015

[Uncle Si]

Well the idea of the Cano deal is relevant, as we want to evaluate not just what they got, but what they will be paying for at the end. one thing about years 3 and 4 (that was argued about Cano years 8-10), that may or may not help, is that by that time many of the deals that will be signed will probably make the Cruz signing seem a value (much like Beltre and Sexson's contracts looked like steals in their last years).

At that point we could be paying only 15 million for a declining power hitter putting up 20-25 HRs, but batting .220.

Oh, so you do agree that the M's have limited resources? You are right, Cano does limit future payroll activity. But he was much younger, and still has 5+ years of prime play left. Certainly you are paying his last four years of contract for his first 6 years of play - but he also has a skill-set that tends to age a little better. Again, all speculation of course.

Sexon's contract was a steal during the last years? He was horrible his last two seasons, eventually being cut during the final year of his contract. Are you saying it looked like a steal when he initially signed the contract?

every team has "limited" resources. no need being pedantic about it. the point is, that in 4 years time, the values of things will go up. We have no idea what flexibility we may or may not have at that point. our young players may require extensions, and Cruz may eat into that. Our young players may give way to younger players with more control and cheaper annuals, and Cruz sitting there doesnt matter at all.

Sexson was bad his last year. (Beltre is a better example, but since I sold Sexson I will stay with it). there is always a bit of revisionist history with him.

Sexson hit 39 and 34 HRs his first two years. exceeding by a long shot the value we paid for him. He made 6 million and 13 million in those two years. Year 3 was his worst year, putting up 20+ HRs at 15 million. His last year, at 15 million, he still had 11 HRs in 72 games (on pace for nearly 30). the team, however, was in complete rebuilding mode. 3 years into the deal it seemed a steal. by the end it was a wash.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Ugh. This is the one move I didn't want to happen. Two years too many, IMO. He's probably going to go back to his declining ways now that he's playing for Seattle and making good money. It's a Mariners tradition.

maybe, but atleast we didnt give up any prospects and filled a need. Its not a bad move in reality, and I'm excited to see where he fits in the lineup

He's hit 20+ HRs ever since 2009. He may never hit 40 again, but his power numbers are still worth the risk of 14 mill per year.

its a win now move, and the M's didnt give up anything. Very good move

I kind of agree, but there is 2 things that scare me about Cruz, Safeco field eating him up, and or his past PED use.
If he hits 25 bombs I'd be ecstatic. Maybe the combo of him plus DJ Peterson will be the 2 bats they need. I Would feel real good if they can add one more quality stick.

 

[Vpk0718]

The PED stuff doesn't worry me anymore, that went out the window last season. Unless he just falls off a cliff (in terms of production, not literally), this is a great move.

 

[jkitsune]

Ugh. This is the one move I didn't want to happen. Two years too many, IMO. He's probably going to go back to his declining ways now that he's playing for Seattle and making good money. It's a Mariners tradition.

maybe, but atleast we didnt give up any prospects and filled a need. Its not a bad move in reality, and I'm excited to see where he fits in the lineup

He's hit 20+ HRs ever since 2009. He may never hit 40 again, but his power numbers are still worth the risk of 14 mill per year.

its a win now move, and the M's didnt give up anything. Very good move

I kind of agree, but there is 2 things that scare me about Cruz, Safeco field eating him up, and or his past PED use.
If he hits 25 bombs I'd be ecstatic. Maybe the combo of him plus DJ Peterson will be the 2 bats they need. I Would feel real good if they can add one more quality stick.

Would you be psyched for Melky Cabrera? All of a sudden I'm super on the Melky Cabrera bandwagon.

 

[HawkFan72]

Steamers and ZIps projects Cruz for 1.5 WAR this year. Sounds good.

You don't follow Mariners ball very closely because that projects 3.6 games better for our DH spot from last season. In case you forgot, or weren't watching, the Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. You do the math.

You think Cruz is the only player we could have gotten to improve the team by one win?

I never said such a thing, but by your statistic he improves the team by 3.6 wins since we calculate the +1.5 that you mentioned for Cruz and take into account that the Mariners received -2.1 grading at that position last seasn. By your own metric, Cruz improves the team by 3.6 wins.

You are kicking your own ass here. I am just helping you to realize it.

Never once have I said that Cruz would not improve the Mariners this year. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. Are you trying to convince me that he's an upgrade? I already know that.

No one is arguing that Cruz will not improve the Mariners DH spot for the 2015 season.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Depends on the level of upgrade. Cruz is a bigger upgrade than the other guys available. But if we're just looking for an upgrade of one win to make the playoffs, I can give a list of younger and cheaper options.

I was told to do the math because Cruz is projected to be worth 1.5 wins. Apparently 1.5 wins is worth over $14 million to Curry.

I don't like looking at stats in a vacuum, because it doesn't take into account a very important aspect of baseball, good players make those around them better.

So you can't just say all the stats on Cruz say he improves the M's 1.5 games, because him batting behind Cano makes him better, and makes Seager (or whoever bats behind him) better.............it's a chain effect.

Baseball is arguably the most inbetween the ears sport there is, so much is dependent upon intangibles like confidence, momentum, etc. So conclusion for me is I have no doubt Cruz would have improved this batting order far more than 1.5 games last year..........which btw 1.5 games would have got us into the playoffs.

 

[IndyHawk]

Wow 3 pages I read through and I almost believe I saw more people in those 3 pages than I did all season last year. Anyway to the subject,I feel good we did something but like others I dunno if Cruz was the right move..I'd rather have a younger guy with upside like Rasmus and I want Tori Hunter for his veteran leadership which can't hurt..I absolutely do not want us trading off our young pitching ..Elias is one thing but nobody else..Last this WAR talk makes me ukeface:
We all know who is good and that stat is misleading when it changes from year to year..Obviously the M's don't use it either if you want to go by that in signing people..Anyways be good hopefully more good news is on the way.. :thirishdrinkers:

 

[jkitsune]

Wow 3 pages I read through and I almost believe I saw more people in those 3 pages than I did all season last year. Anyway to the subject,I feel good we did something but like others I dunno if Cruz was the right move..I'd rather have a younger guy with upside like Rasmus and I want Tori Hunter for his veteran leadership which can't hurt..I absolutely do not want us trading off our young pitching ..Elias is one thing but nobody else..Last this WAR talk makes me ukeface:
We all know who is good and that stat is misleading when it changes from year to year..Obviously the M's don't use it either if you want to go by that in signing people..Anyways be good hopefully more good news is on the way.. :thirishdrinkers:

I'm confused by you saying both of these things one right after the other. Torii Hunter is not a notable upgrade, other than his 'veteran leadership.' Nelson Cruz is, and is also a veteran.

I don't know. I like the signing. I like it way better than signing Torii Hunter. If we could find a way to add one more bat who can play a competent outfield, this is already a significantly improved club. Add in some starting pitching depth and I feel really good about next year.

 

[IndyHawk]

Tori Hunter would just be a part time player to add..Not who I want big besides "Cruz"..We could still add Rasmus-No?

 

[CurryStopstheRuns]

Steamers and ZIps projects Cruz for 1.5 WAR this year. Sounds good.

You think Cruz is the only player we could have gotten to improve the team by one win?

I never said such a thing, but by your statistic he improves the team by 3.6 wins since we calculate the +1.5 that you mentioned for Cruz and take into account that the Mariners received -2.1 grading at that position last seasn. By your own metric, Cruz improves the team by 3.6 wins.

You are kicking your own ass here. I am just helping you to realize it.

I am not able to find justification for your -2.1 WAR for DH. Where did you get this figure? Nor do I believe this is the correct application of WAR metrics.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/12/1 ... ke-it-dumb

But the Mariners came up one game shy in 2014, a year in which they got a combined -2.1 WAR from their designated hitters.

 

[davidonmi]

Mathematically it is a terrible deal, for all the reasons brought up earlier.
14 million per for 4 years is way too much for a 34 year old DH only.
However, Cruz does fill a major need and there weren't many potential options left on the market outside of Kemp and Upton (I know people love cespedes but he honestly isn't that good)
At least Cruz doesn't cost MLB ready prospects like Kemp or Upton would (the player from the draft pick they lost likely wouldn't be contributing for at least 2-3 years down the road if ever).
They still need a platoon OF and a SP if they keep saunders (which they should good luck finding an option just as good at that cost).
If they choose to dump saunders, they better find a noticeable improvement

 

[Uncle Si]

Mathematically it is a terrible deal, for all the reasons brought up earlier.
14 million per for 4 years is way too much for a 34 year old DH only.
However, Cruz does fill a major need and there weren't many potential options left on the market outside of Kemp and Upton (I know people love cespedes but he honestly isn't that good)
At least Cruz doesn't cost MLB ready prospects like Kemp or Upton would (the player from the draft pick they lost likely wouldn't be contributing for at least 2-3 years down the road if ever).
They still need a platoon OF and a SP if they keep saunders (which they should good luck finding an option just as good at that cost).
If they choose to dump saunders, they better find a noticeable improvement

mathematically though, 15 million isnt all that much. it puts him roughly in the 50-60 range of top salaries. (around Peralta, Swisher, Beltran, players with whom he could be compared equally against).

15 million in 2018 will probably closer to the 80-100 range for salaries.

its just really not that much of a gamble, monetarily. I understand why people arent excited about the player. but focusing on the salary seems an easy target. We lost a draft pick, 15 mill per year, filled a need (right handed power bat), all that without focusing on the fact Cruz has been good for 25+ HRs for the last 6 seasons.

With you on whats left, a platoon OF and 3-4 SP. Would love to see one more bat come in as well. Ive no issues with dumping Saunders for Hunter, if the plan is to dump Saunders. Personally, I like him and think he is very undervalued.

The one thing I enjoy about this deal is that in the last two seasons, the Mariners have signed Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. they are desperately trying to initiate change here. They're creating a story, creating a winning product and getting fans excited about baseball... in December.

 

[davidonmi]

40-50 range is still high for someone who has no defensive value and is just coming off a PED suspension and a career year at age 34.
I could go into projected war and all that, but I'll just say that I can see the argument from either side.
A lot of money, but they filled a need.
As for hunter his defense fell off a cliff last year, I'd prefer Saunders in rf

 

[Uncle Si]

40-50 range is still high for someone who has no defensive value and is just coming off a PED suspension and a career year at age 34.
I could go into projected war and all that, but I'll just say that I can see the argument from either side.
A lot of money, but they filled a need.
As for hunter his defense fell off a cliff last year, I'd prefer Saunders in rf

His projected WAR is something like a 6 win improvement on who he is replacing (Ive seen anywhere from 2-3.5 for next season).

I look at this deal in the same terms as what happened with Sexson. Value on the front end. the last year will suck. But 4 years from now we've no idea what this team will look like. Its a win now move and I think the value is reflective in the first 2 years. I guess thats the debate though, isnt it. if it was only a 2 year deal i doubt anyone would be concerned at all.

I meant I preferred Saunders and find him undervalued. I'm not a huge fan of Hunter. Would prefer Rasmus if it came to it. (it seems the Ms are deadset on moving Saunders, for reasons I cant fathom).

 

[dumbrabbit]

Why should WAR be the tell-all stat? The guy hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs last season.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Why should WAR be the tell-all stat? The guy hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs last season.

It's just a good indicator not the end all be all. Also nobody should expect 40 HRs and 100 RBIs out of him but 25/80ish? Why not?

 

[Uncle Si]

Why should WAR be the tell-all stat? The guy hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs last season.

if the same guy did that while batting .200 and was the defensive equivalent of a traffic cone his relative value to the team is reduced. If the same guy bats .330, fields like Ozzy Smith, has fantastic hair and visits orphans on Sunday mornings than his value is different.

thus WAR.. but yes, it is not the "tell all" stat. just one of many

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

........has fantastic hair and visits orphans on Sunday mornings than his value is different..........

In other words, the baseball equivalent to Russell Wilson.

 

[dumbrabbit]

Why should WAR be the tell-all stat? The guy hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs last season.

if the same guy did that while batting .200 and was the defensive equivalent of a traffic cone his relative value to the team is reduced. If the same guy bats .330, fields like Ozzy Smith, has fantastic hair and visits orphans on Sunday mornings than his value is different.

thus WAR.. but yes, it is not the "tell all" stat. just one of many

Honestly, I hate looking at averages. They don't tell the whole story. The number of at bats highly influence them. I prefer looking at what he did exactly. 40 HR/100 RBI seems like a lot for a guy who signed for 4 years, $58M.

 

[Uncle Si]

Why should WAR be the tell-all stat? The guy hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs last season.

if the same guy did that while batting .200 and was the defensive equivalent of a traffic cone his relative value to the team is reduced. If the same guy bats .330, fields like Ozzy Smith, has fantastic hair and visits orphans on Sunday mornings than his value is different.

thus WAR.. but yes, it is not the "tell all" stat. just one of many

Honestly, I hate looking at averages. They don't tell the whole story. The number of at bats highly influence them. I prefer looking at what he did exactly. 40 HR/100 RBI seems like a lot for a guy who signed for 4 years, $58M.

WAR takes into account a lot of info.

I dont disagree though. it cant be used as the singular barometer. its a good way to compare overall value of players versus those that fit into their roles. and if Cruz is the DH, then all that matters is that he bombs and cleans up the table that Seagar and Cano set for him