rigelian":ja69l4k9 said:
I think that people underestimate the risks that exist on both sides.
First for Kaepernick. At this point he is a phenomenal physical talent. He has a strong arm. He is a great runner. He's smart, especially in the sense of avoiding the big hit. He gives defenses terrible match up problems. However, there are a couple of things that make signing him to a long term contract risk.
First, I don't know if Kaepernick will ever be able to quickly process a defense. Some people think that this is a skill that can be taught. I'm not so sure. This is not an intellectual issue, but a speed in processing issue. I get the feeling that he reads slowly and quickly runs out of time in his progressions. The second issue is more of a leadership good decision issue. He makes risky decisions.
Assuming that he doesn't progress a good deal on both of these fronts, the 49ers are going to make a huge decision before the product is fully baked.
I think Seahawk fans are a bit myopic when it comes down to whether Russell is going to ask for the moon in terms of payday. I think he will. Contracts and money are a measuring stick. RW is an extremely competitive guy. He wants to be known as one of the best. Part of the acknowledgement is your contract.
I agree with you, and on first read of that nfl.com article where Kap wanted 18 mil/year, I thought it was too much. Thing is, Kap has great accuracy in the 1-2 reads that he does make. His WRs that he has (Boldin/Crabtree) are good at grabbing contested balls and have good hands. So Kap can fling them the ball even when he's in trouble. He's also the worst in the league for accuracy under pressure at 54%. That goes into making your 3rd and 4th reads. Thing is, the kid wins. He is a true dual threat QB and that stresses most defenses. Our defense is set up well to stop him with the personnel we have, but if we start losing guys, he could end up getting us a few times easy. Also, look at all the other defenses out there, and he shreds most of them. He's a 12 win a year QB on that team, and that has a lot of value.
I'm not sure Flacco's deal will be too indicative of what guys go for. Sure, Flacco got it after winning a SB, but it's also well documented that it hamstrung them in their cap space and adversely affected the team this year. Also, on a lesser talanted team, Flacco wasn't good enough to take them to the playoffs, so he's not earning that elite contract. I think teams are wise enough to not fling out too much, and Cutler and Romo (although both are overpaid) will probably be the benchmarks of a team friendly deal for top tier QBs, until the cap goes up signficantly.
This isn't good news for us though, as we can't negotiate with Wilson now, while it's going to be a lot cheaper. There will be larger deals this year due to the growing cap, and more next year, so it's going to cost us 18-20 mil/year for Wilson, whether we like it or not. That's going to suck the first couple of years until the cap grows and we can absorb it easier.
