Hyak
Active member
mrt144":24e72pjl said:It does raise the top level conversation in my mind which is "Are our current players good enough for Bevell's current offensive playcalling" If it is merely a question of execution then I feel this is the natural extension of where breakdowns between playcall intent and playcall success occur.
Let's just say that latter half of 2015 was 100% of potential output. Last year was at say 75% of that realized potential. Is the gap on peak potential caused by players being unable to execute through inherent talent levels, lack of preparation and coaching, being system mismatches, injuries or other?
An even higher level question is how far off from peak performance can the offense be at and cross various performance thresholds in the playoffs and how much does regular season quagmires (like Tampa, shudder) reflect on forward expectations in those situations?
I know the old axiom goes "you don't adjust how you call a game until it's executed very well and still comes up short". I suppose the quibbling point here is between the belief that we're executing the gameplan very well and still coming up short (and don't the stats bear out that we do execute efficiently in aggregate to our peers?) and we're not executing the gameplan very well and that simply needs to be better.
What are the mechanisms for getting a player to 'execute' better assuming inherent talent is relatively sticky?
Now I expect the answer to be fuzzy and I recognize that. I take it for granted that players can always play better to a certain extent. I just don't expect it to happen organically by their own gumption. And I want to solve the puzzle around why 2016s players didn't perform like their predecessors to a large extent because this is mostly the same exact team we're seeing in the future. Injuries were that significant and the OL that raw that they couldn't possibly hope to approach peak performance levels? And it was merely an aberration? That we should expect less integral injuries to QB, RB and WR going forward than last year and thats most of the difference and absent those we will have anywhere from "good enough" to "better than good"?
To me, it seems like if you're all in on players mostly being responsible for the dropoff in 2016, then there are deeper systemic issues vis a vis talent and depth on offense given very few changes to how Bevell and Pete want the offense to operate going forward. I tend to think more of our players inherent talent but hey, I've been wrong about stuff before and I could be underestimating just how much our current offensive players need to improve and remain healthy to see an offense that takes care of business.
I am curious though - how does a team that overall is efficient on offense have such middling red zone efficiency for 4 years and a steep dropoff in the 5th? Do players just execute worse the closer they get to the endzone inherently? Systemically? Specifically RW? Specifically his height?! In 5 years of playing in with his OC there are no answers on how to goose red zone efficiency with him as QB? Has our roster around RW actually gotten worse for the tasks of the red zone assuming a fairly static Bevell?
And that's what almost all these questions assume: If Bevell's ability as OC is mostly static and inherently good and the variable that controls output is player ability, what can be done really than pay and pray?
Sure its easy to pile on Bevell for the play and I do it because I get a small cathartic release every single time I do but I do think there are some deeper inherent issues in flexibility and adaptation vis a vis Bevell and smaller extent PC where he's calling plays for the team he wants or wishes he had, not the team he in fact has.
Good compelling post here and I'll take a stab at some of it.
Talent wise, I think they are fine at the skill spot as we sit here today. The OL is the big question mark albeit I think it's in a better place now than in 2016 given the year of experience by the young guys, the evolution of Britt, and adding ceiling/floor competition with Joeckel and Aboushi.
As for the regression in 2016 in vital offensive metrics, I think the combination of injuries to Wilson and the running backs along with the OL play struggles were the biggest factors.
Red Zone wise, the Hawks have never been good in this area under Wilson. The best ranking was 14th in 2013. They ranked 26th last year, 16th in 2015, 20th in 2014, and 16th in 2012. Theories? Smaller window of space, which plays against Wilson somewhat as well as skill guys better in space. Remember, the big draw of Graham was to help combat this. Running game wise, even with Lynch it wasn't great. I do also think there have been times where they can be really conservative knowing that the defense is so good. Of course, that's complementary football that doesn't necessarily show up on a stat sheet or in a fan's silo view of the world.
If you go back in time, though, you can see some real roster holes that played factors in the offense. For example, the 2014 WR group ended up much weaker than the plan. The group was supposed to be Baldwin, Harvin, Kearse, and Richardson. It ended up being Baldwin, Kearse, Lockette, and Walters. TE lost Zach Miller in season. In 2015, Lynch was out of shape and then injured. Rawls came on and was great until he broke his fibula. Graham went down mid-year. They ended up with Michaels as the RB. They also had the Drew Nowak experience blow up on them at center.