Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

[BASF]

So much of this argument again centers on our own perception. What is your definition of elite is the crux. For me elite is top three. Wilson was not better than Brady, Rodgers or Brees, so for me, not elite. When Brady and Brees fell off, Mahomes and Allen were already better than Wilson, so again no top three, not elite. Others here have their own definition. Trying to change their minds seems pretty impossible after all the back and forth.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yeah, I always saw him in that 4-7 range. And that's fine.

 

[McGruff]

I have no doubt in my mind that when factoring what Wilson could do with his feet and improv skills, he was in that category with Brees and Brady and Manning on a season to season basis.

But over the course of a career? Even without the last two years factored in? Not a chance.

But if Russ had been able to progress based on his early returns, he absolutely could have been in the conversation.

 

[McGruff]

but in 2020 the wheels fell off, and he just didn’t have the skill set to adjust or humility to accept his limitations.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I think we can agree that you don't give Russ enough credit, and I don't give Geno enough credit.

 

[RiverDog]

So much of this argument again centers on our own perception. What is your definition of elite is the crux. For me elite is top three. Wilson was not better than Brady, Rodgers or Brees, so for me, not elite. When Brady and Brees fell off, Mahomes and Allen were already better than Wilson, so again no top three, not elite. Others here have their own definition. Trying to change their minds seems pretty impossible after all the back and forth.

Yeah, me, too. Top 3 in a league with 32 starting quarterbacks is roughly 10%, and in my book, there's no way you can extend 'elite' out to the top 15% or 20%. Even in his best seasons, Russell was definitely 2nd tier. It's the same argument which will most likely keep him out of the HOF. He never had a season where he was considered the top player at his position, never had a season where he was the top statistical QB, never won a SB MVP. Top 5, yes. Top 3, no.

That's no disrespect towards Russell, just that he's not "elite."

 

[hawkfan68]

Russ was near the top of every statistical category for any QB in history for their first decade in the league. He was absolutely elite. Just because he didn't fit the traditional mold doesn't mean he was elite. I dont think he was figured out, he just got old and his game relied a lot of his playmaking ability and he still put up decent numbers, even last year his numbers were very similar to Geno and better in a lot of categories.

For a long stretch of his career he was top 3 in passer rating in NFL history. I know not everyone loves that stat but when you look at the list its a pretty good indicator of who's a great QB and being #2 all time to Aaron Rodgers after 10 years is a pretty small group.

Players like Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields were drafted due to play style that Russell brought. Teams would seek out this style of play more than they did before Wilson came into the league. They tried to replicate this style. Only Hurts has been to the superbowl among those named.

Lamar threw for only 3,127 (2019) and 3,678 (2023) yards during his MVP seasons. Not the stats a MVP QB typically garners. He is doing this with his legs. Once his legs are gone, he will sink just like other run first QBs have done. He still hasn't sniffed a superbowl and he plays on a team with a top 5 defense.

 

[hawkfan68]

So if Russell was 'elite,' why didn't he get so much as one single vote in any year for league MVP? Hell, even Derek Carr has received a vote. "Near" the top doesn't cut it when you're talking elite. And please, don't say regional bias as they draw the panel from all 4 corners of the country.

Russell was a franchise quarterback, the best QB we've had in franchise history and a huge piece of our only Lombardi trophy. But he was not 'elite' the way I understand the term. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers could all be put in that category, but not Russell.

Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson won NFL MVP awards. This is why I believe the MVP award is a joke. It's a very subjective award. They are not "elite" either.

 

[knownone]

Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson won NFL MVP awards. This is why I believe the MVP award is a joke. It's it a very subjective award. They are not "elite" either.

Cam Newton had 45 TDs on a 15-1 team. Jackson's first MVP, he had 4500 total yards and 42 TDs on a 14-2 team. This season, while less concrete, is still one of the most efficient in the league on the best record.

The MVP isn't who is the best player in a vacuum. Instead, it's who was the most valuable player over the course of the season. If anything, they won those awards because voters were more objective and basing their decisions on tangible metrics rather than vague perceptions.

 

[hawkfan68]

Cam Newton had 45 TDs on a 15-1 team. Jackson's first MVP, he had 4500 total yards and 42 TDs on a 14-2 team. This season, while less concrete, is still one of the most efficient in the league on the best record.

The MVP isn't who is the best player in a vacuum. Instead, it's who was the most valuable player over the course of the season. If anything, they won those awards because voters were more objective and basing their decisions on tangible metrics rather than vague perceptions.

Was Jackson more valuable last season than Mahomes? I believe Mahomes should have been the MVP. He led his team to a SB championship.

 

[McGruff]

MVP voting is done before the SB.

 

[hawkfan68]

MVP voting is done before the SB.

True. Another reason why I believe it's a joke. It's awarded before the entire season is over. If the Ravens had a terrible defense and finished the season 9-8 or worse. If Lamar put up those same numbers would he still be the NFL MVP? Probably (I believe "certainly") not.

 

[IndyHawk]

Most QB's struggle with cover 2. It's why you need a supporting cast to help keep them honest. Did no one use cover 2 for the first 9 years in the league against him?

There are different ways cover 2 is used, it's not like a video game where you see
one version.
Me3 doesn't use the whole field and never has, the passing heat charts show this.
It took awhile for Ds to catch on because he improvised and ran his way out of plays
like crazy.
Once his legs were gone, this is where he needed to actually be an elite QB:
Read the D, call the right protection(s), audible out as needed, get rid of the ball fast
and see the field (all of it).
Elite QBs all know and do all these things well, Me3 does not but that is how you beat
cover 2 in a nutshell.

 

[McGruff]

Instead he just kept holding on to the ball, running around and waiting for the deep boundary routes which were both double covered.

Meanwhile the slot or TE was sitting in the middle of the field wide open waving his arms.

 

[Palmegranite]

but in 2020 the wheels fell off, and he just didn’t have the skill set to adjust or humility to accept his limitations.

I will need to correct you. Why do posters here keep saying 2020 was a "wheels fell off" season for Wilson? It's just plain wrong. Please stop it, for your own credibility sake.

They had a 12-4 W/L season, man.

You know which players QB'd their team to 12 wins or better last year?
L. Jackson, Prescott, Goff and Brock Purdy . Not Mahomes, not Allen.
I guess these guys all had wheels fall off seasons. SMH

 

[knownone]

Was Jackson more valuable last season than Mahomes? I believe Mahomes should have been the MVP. He led his team to a SB championship.

How do you define value? Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league by far, no question. However, the MVP is a regular-season award. Jackson had more total yards, TDs, and overall efficiency, and his team won more games. I mean, the Ravens averaged 28 ppg last year compared to the Chiefs' average of 21. Jackson deserved the award as much as anyone, even if he's not the best QB in the league.

 

[chris98251]

Russ was near the top of every statistical category for any QB in history for their first decade in the league. He was absolutely elite. Just because he didn't fit the traditional mold doesn't mean he was elite. I dont think he was figured out, he just got old and his game relied a lot of his playmaking ability and he still put up decent numbers, even last year his numbers were very similar to Geno and better in a lot of categories.

For a long stretch of his career he was top 3 in passer rating in NFL history. I know not everyone loves that stat but when you look at the list its a pretty good indicator of who's a great QB and being #2 all time to Aaron Rodgers after 10 years is a pretty small group.

Stats are a tool, I actually watched the games, how many three and outs has he had in his career, find that out against other QB's and the shiny becomes more tarnished and rusted, kinda of like 49ers trophies.

 

[keasley45]

I will need to correct you. Why do posters here keep saying 2020 was a "wheels fell off" season for Wilson? It's just plain wrong. Please stop it, for your own credibility sake.

They had a 12-4 W/L season, man.

You know which players QB'd their team to 12-4 or better last year?
L. Jackson, Prescott, Goff and Brock Purdy . Not Mahomes, not Allen.
I guess these guys all had wheels fall off seasons. SMH

I think the 'wheels fell off' refers to how ordinary he played over the last half. He was red hot to start... something like 26 / 40 tds in his first 7 games and 14 / 40 over the last 9 (thats 29 on the season for a whole season) with 7 ints over that span.

29tds vs 14 ints if you average out his 2nd half play is falling off of a cliff, compared to 26 tds vs 6 ints over his first 7 games. Thats 55tds vs 15 ints averaged over a season for his start. Pretty stark contrast.

His season overall was still good. But 1st half to 2nd? His stats werent nearly as good and the passing game was rendered stat rich but production poor to average in terms of efficiency.

But first half of 2020 was on pace to set records. Last 9 weeks? Not close.

Its pretty much known that week 6 of 2020 against the Cards was when his career took a dive. 2019 was a great year for him under Schotty. Probably his best all around. 2020 was electric to start. But after that, his game was pretty much solved. Part of that was the trend in the league toward defenses taking away the deep shots and forcing the short, methodical game. Thats not Russ's bag. And his play since has shown that.

So whether you judge his play relative to that season (first 6 or 7 weeks vs the last half) or from week 6 of 2020 forward, the wheels absolutely came off.

 

[McGruff]

I will need to correct you. Why do posters here keep saying 2020 was a "wheels fell off" season for Wilson? It's just plain wrong. Please stop it, for your own credibility sake.

They had a 12-4 W/L season, man.

You know which players QB'd their team to 12 wins or better last year?
L. Jackson, Prescott, Goff and Brock Purdy . Not Mahomes, not Allen.
I guess these guys all had wheels fall off seasons. SMH

Wins and losses are team stats, not individual.

Look at Wilson’s last 6 games that season, from NYG through the playoff loss and tell me the wheels did not fall off.

Everyone with eyes and an ounce of football knowledge saw it happening live. The Giants blueprinted him with cover two doubling up the deep sidelines. And everyone after that followed the blueprint. Take away the deep sidelines, and Wilson had nothing to counter.

 

[keasley45]

Wins and losses are team stats, not individual.

Look at Wilson’s last 6 games that season, from NYG through the playoff loss and tell me the wheels did not fall off.

Everyone with eyes and an ounce of football knowledge saw it happening live. The Giants blueprinted him with cover two doubling up the deep sidelines. And everyone after that followed the blueprint. Take away the deep sidelines, and Wilson had nothing to counter.

Yup. That Athletic article that came out in the offseason quoted coaches stating Wilson wasnt even playing top 15 ball over that stretch. That he looked lost, confused, and not remotely the same player. Thats not fan opinion. Thats the assessment of folks trained to understand the game and assess performance.