If the Rams beat the 9ers does it matter?

[RichNhansom]

I know if we beat the 9ers in week 17 we win the division but what if we beat the Cards and they lose to the Rams? Do we still need to beat them to win the division?

We would have the same record and have the losses vs opponents.

If we end the season tied, who wins the division?

 

[Polaris]

I know if we beat the 9ers in week 17 we win the division but what if we beat the Cards and they lose to the Rams? Do we still need to beat them to win the division?

We would have the same record and have the losses vs opponents.

If we end the season tied, who wins the division?

Short answer is no, it doesn't matter. We still have to beat the Niners in week 17 pretty much no matter what. That's because the Niners have too big a lead on us in Strength of Victory for us to clinch in week 16. Had we won last week, that would be different but we didn't.

Basically the NFC West will come down to a one game playoff between San Fran and Seattle on week 17.

 

[kidhawk]

I know if we beat the 9ers in week 17 we win the division but what if we beat the Cards and they lose to the Rams? Do we still need to beat them to win the division?

We would have the same record and have the losses vs opponents.

If we end the season tied, who wins the division?

Short answer is no, it doesn't matter. We still have to beat the Niners in week 17 pretty much no matter what. That's because the Niners have too big a lead on us in Strength of Victory for us to clinch in week 16. Had we won last week, that would be different but we didn't.

Basically the NFC West will come down to a one game playoff between San Fran and Seattle on week 17.

As of this week it doesn’t but we don’t know who will win the next two weeks. It could make a difference but we will likely not know that until week 17. Assuming we get flexed we will know the tiebreakers before we play. Still it’s so tight I’d rather just win it and definitely earn a week off.

Of course the above is only looking at the division. We still want to win out for a bye. With our injury list we will want that bye week

 

[renofox]

...the Niners have too big a lead on us in Strength of Victory..

ESPN has SOV:
.474 - Seahawks
.447 - 49ers

If Seahawks beat Cards it would drop SOV but not sure how much.

 

[Seahawks8880]

I copy and paste this from one of the fellow 9ers fans which explains it most.


1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 49ers and Seahawks TIED 1-1, move to 2

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 4-2, move to 3

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 10-4, move to 4

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 9-3, move to 5

5. Strength of victory. 49ers and Seahawks beat the same teams, except 49ers beat GB, NO and Washington and
the Seahawks beat Philly, Minn and ATL. The Win-Loss record between these two sets of teams is the tiebreaker

6. Strength of schedule. IRRELEVANT, see above (assuming that GB, NO and Washington combined don't have the
same record as Philly, Minn and ATL combined, in which case strength of schedule comes into play).

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss

Basically we are counting Philly, Minn and Atl to have a better combined record than GB, NO, and Wash which right now San Fran has the edge on. Lets just win out and take #1.

 

[Polaris]

...the Niners have too big a lead on us in Strength of Victory..

ESPN has SOV:
.474 - Seahawks
.447 - 49ers

If Seahawks beat Cards it would drop SOV but not sure how much.

You can't go by our SoV today but what our SoV will be after we beat the Cards and San Fran loses to the Rams. You have to assume that we beat the Cards and San Fran loses to the Rams. Otherwise SoV won't go into it. That would mean both have beaten the Cards twice and split against the Rams, and split against each other. That would give San Fran the edge in SoV unless New Orleans loses more games and Altanta wins more.

Edit: The post above explains it very well.

 

[justafan]

Using the playoff machine we win the division if we end up tied with SF no matter which game we lose we win the tiebreaker. We win tiebreakers with all teams except NO. If 5 teams finish 12-4 we are the 2 seed. If the playoff machine is right

 

[Polaris]

Using the playoff machine we win the division if we end up tied with SF no matter which game we lose we win the tiebreaker. We win tiebreakers with all teams except NO. If 5 teams finish 12-4 we are the 2 seed. If the playoff machine is right

When it comes to calculating SoV, the playoff machine is dodgy

Take the combined records of New Orleans, Green Bay and Washington for San Fran

compare to the combined records of Minnesota, Philly, and Atlanta for Seattle

the better win-loss breaks the SoV tie if it applies

Right now, Edge San Fran

 

[XxXdragonXxX]

If we lose 1 more game we likely don't get a 1 or 2 seed. Yes, if the Niners lose to the Rams and we beat the Cardinals, we win the division. If we then beat the Niners we get the 1 or 2 seed, however if we lose, we get the 3 seed if the Packers and Saints take care of business.

 

[Polaris]

If we lose 1 more game we likely don't get a 1 or 2 seed. Yes, if the Niners lose to the Rams and we beat the Cardinals, we win the division. If we then beat the Niners we get the 1 or 2 seed, however if we lose, we get the 3 seed if the Packers and Saints take care of business.

Actually even if the Niners lose to the Rams and we beat the Cardinals we don't automatically win the division. We still have to win week 17 to be absolutely sure. Otherwise it goes down to SoV and that is iffy and currently favors San Fran.

Basically if Seattle can win out, Seattle will be no worse than the #2 seed.

 

[Scorpion05]

The idea that the Niners have too big a lead in strength of victory is not accurate. This is being spread around too much.

It's obviously not a guarantee, but we can technically win the division still if :

The Packers, Redskins, Saints lose a combined 4 games, and the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles win a combined 5. If that happens, then Week 17 won't matter if the Rams win in Week 16. This is based on the 538 simulation

 

[Mad Dog]

Strength of victory is the winning percentage of all opponents not just the three each you guys are mentioning. Since we played all but 4 common teams the only winning percentage that matters for SoV is that of MIN+PHI vs Wash+GB. That currently stands at 17 to 14.

We need one more PHI or MIN win to clinch SOV. Or a WASH or GB loss.

 

[KitsapGuy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dannyoneil/status/1206375351217278979[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dannyoneil/status/1206375959106064387[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dannyoneil/status/1206376454306619394[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dannyoneil/status/1206377166386147328[/tweet]

 

[Polaris]

Strength of victory is the winning percentage of all opponents not just the three each you guys are mentioning. Since we played all but 4 common teams the only winning percentage that matters for SoV is that of MIN+PHI vs Wash+GB. That currently stands at 17 to 14.

We need one more PHI or MIN win to clinch SOV. Or a WASH or GB loss.

It is the total Win-loss records of the teams we have beaten. That means that New Orleans is counted for San Fran and Atlanta is counted for us which also hurts us. SoS favors Seattle.

 

[Polaris]

The idea that the Niners have too big a lead in strength of victory is not accurate. This is being spread around too much.

It's obviously not a guarantee, but we can technically win the division still if :

The Packers, Redskins, Saints lose a combined 4 games, and the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles win a combined 5. If that happens, then Week 17 won't matter if the Rams win in Week 16. This is based on the 538 simulation

I agree that Seattle can catch up, but we can't clinch in week 16 which is what I generally worry about. By my back of envelope calculations, we need some favorable wins and losses in both week 16 and 17 to catch up and beat San Fran in SoV.

 

[sutz]

Interesting discussions, but I like the simple option. Win the games ahead of us. :snack:

 

[Polaris]

Interesting discussions, but I like the simple option. Win the games ahead of us. :snack:

Indeed. If Seattle wins the next two, then we get the week off. That's fine by me.

 

[Torc]

Basically the NFC West will come down to a one game playoff between San Fran and Seattle on week 17.

Now we just need Randy Johnson to raise the '12' flag that day.

 

[knownone]

The idea that the Niners have too big a lead in strength of victory is not accurate. This is being spread around too much.

It's obviously not a guarantee, but we can technically win the division still if :

The Packers, Redskins, Saints lose a combined 4 games, and the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles win a combined 5. If that happens, then Week 17 won't matter if the Rams win in Week 16. This is based on the 538 simulation

Where we currently stand there is about a 10% chance of that scenario happening. So what's being said is mostly accurate, it's just not impossible. Seriously, you're describing a scenario where Seattle would need the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles to go 5-1 during the next two weeks, and the Packers, Redskins, and Saints to go 3-4. It's possible, but incredibly unlikely.

 

[Mad Dog]

Strength of victory is the winning percentage of all opponents not just the three each you guys are mentioning. Since we played all but 4 common teams the only winning percentage that matters for SoV is that of MIN+PHI vs Wash+GB. That currently stands at 17 to 14.

We need one more PHI or MIN win to clinch SOV. Or a WASH or GB loss.

It is the total Win-loss records of the teams we have beaten. That means that New Orleans is counted for San Fran and Atlanta is counted for us which also hurts us. SoS favors Seattle.

Sorry. I mixed up SoS with SoV.