How good will Russell Wilson be in 2013?

[SE174]

One of the more interesting responses from coach Carroll came when he was asked who he believes will be the Seahawks’ breakout player in 2013. His answer? Quarterback Russell Wilson.

“I think it’s going to be Russell Wilson,” Carroll said. “I think he’s going to really do well this year. He’s going to bust out and will benefit tremendously from his first year. It may be hard to imagine he’s going to get any better, but I think he’s going to get a lot better, being he was a first year starter, first time in the League.”
http://blog.seahawks.com/2013/04/04/pet ... a-session/

Without much of an offseason or preseason's worth of reps to build rapport with his receivers, and despite the restrictor plate Carroll/Bevell imposed on him the first 8 games or so, Wilson had an excellent rookie year. Eighteen games and a full offseason of experience and reps (multiplied by his ridiculous work ethic) should arguably make him better this year, but how much better? What's his ceiling for the 2013 season?

For reference...

2012 Stats:
CMP/ATT: 252/393
CMP%: 64.1
YDS: 3,118
TDS/INT: 26/10
RSH/YDS: 94/489
YPC: 5.2
TDS: 4
QBR/PRT: 69.6/100.0


Side note: Does anyone remember the thread where people were predicting the numbers Russell would put up last year? Is that thread gone for good, or can somebody link to it?

 

[The Outfield]

Regarding your side note: It appears the forum only retains posts dating back 6 months or less.

 

[jammerhawk]

Incrementally better, but noticeably so. He was pretty freaking good last year so better is awesome.

Pete says so too!

 

[travlinhawk]

I would be happy with the same type of performance we witnessed during the last half of the season. If it gets better than that we are in for the ride of our lives...

 

[cacksman]

I think his stats will look something like this:

64%, 3,500, 30/8, 5 rushing.

Needless to say, I will be targeting Wilson in my fantasy football drafts this summer.

 

[Tundra]

He will have a record setting 2nd season! Book it. Like my kids say, " Russell Wilson is the TRUTH!"

 

[SE174]

I would be happy with the same type of performance we witnessed during the last half of the season. If it gets better than that we are in for the ride of our lives...

Good point, and I agree. The second half of the season was not only without restrictions on the playbook, but the addition of the read-option. For comparison's sake:


First 8 games
CMP/ATT: 129/210
CMP%: 61.4
YDS: 1,466
TDS/INT: 10/8
RSH/YDS: 36/128
YPC: 3.6
TDS: 0
QBR/PRT: 51.5/84.0


Last 8 games:
CMP/ATT: 123/183
CMP%: 67.2
YDS: 1,652
TDS/INT: 16/2
RSH/YDS: 58/361
YPC: 6.2
TDS: 4
QBR/PRT: 76.3/116.6

So, multiplied by two for a full season we'd be looking at...

2013 Projected:
CMP/ATT: 246/366
CMP%: 67.2
YDS: 3,304
TDS/INT: 32/4
RSH/YDS: 116/722
YPC: 6.2
TDS: 8
QBR/PRT: 76.3/116.6

And that's without factoring in more attempts, which I think we'll see with Russell's knowledge of the playbook and the addition of Percy. I've heard Brock Huard and John Clayton guess about 5-8 more throws per game, which would roughly equate to 80-128 more attempts, 53-86 more completions, 497-806 more yards, and 7-11 more TDs. 8)

 

[SE174]

Also, I don't know if it's sustainable, but check out Russell's "CLUTCH" stats from the second half of last year:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... son-rg-iii

RIDICULOUS. The more critical the situation, the better he is.

 

[QuahHawk]

I'd guess

3,500yds
35tds
65% completion rate
105 QB rating
500yds rush
3TDs

 

[12HawkFan]

Simple, no key injuries to himself or the offensive line, MVP!

GO HAWKS!!!

 

[seahawkcanuck]

look into my crystal ball !!!

 

[hawxfreak]

Even griffins numbers are impressive

 

[DavidSeven]

I'd be very happy if he was simply as good as last year. Obviously hoping for significant improvement, but I'm not going to freak out if the stats regress a bit. Making a big jump after a stellar rookie year shouldn't be assumed.

Last five QBs to win ROTY (pre-RG3): Newton, Bradford, Ryan, Young and Roethlisberger.

• Newton and Roethlisberger stagnated statistically in their second year (some would say they played worse, few would say better).
• Bradford and Ryan actually played worse in their sophomore seasons.
• Young was surprisingly the only one to show improvement, but he also had the worst rookie year (statistically) of the five.

 

[themunn]

I would be happy with the same type of performance we witnessed during the last half of the season. If it gets better than that we are in for the ride of our lives...

Good point, and I agree. The second half of the season was not only without restrictions on the playbook, but the addition of the read-option. For comparison's sake:


First 8 games
CMP/ATT: 129/210
CMP%: 61.4
YDS: 1,466
TDS/INT: 10/8
RSH/YDS: 36/128
YPC: 3.6
TDS: 0
QBR/PRT: 51.5/84.0


Last 8 games:
CMP/ATT: 123/183
CMP%: 67.2
YDS: 1,652
TDS/INT: 16/2
RSH/YDS: 58/361
YPC: 6.2
TDS: 4
QBR/PRT: 76.3/116.6

So, multiplied by two for a full season we'd be looking at...

2013 Projected:
CMP/ATT: 246/366
CMP%: 67.2
YDS: 3,304
TDS/INT: 32/4
RSH/YDS: 116/722
YPC: 6.2
TDS: 8
QBR/PRT: 76.3/116.6

And that's without factoring in more attempts, which I think we'll see with Russell's knowledge of the playbook and the addition of Percy. I've heard Brock Huard and John Clayton guess about 5-8 more throws per game, which would roughly equate to 80-128 more attempts, 53-86 more completions, 497-806 more yards, and 7-11 more TDs. 8)

I say 2nd half of the season +10% in all stats, so something like:

2013 Projected:
CMP/ATT: 280/400
CMP%: 70%
YDS: 3,600
TDS/INT: 36/5
RSH/YDS: 130/850
YPC: 6.5
TDS: 10
QBR/PRT: 76.3/120.6

Just kept the QBR the same because feck knows how that works.
That would be pushing for the single-season passer rating record, which I think Wilson should be pushing for this year anyway, so sounds reasonable to me

 

[jewhawk]

His efficiency numbers (Y/A, Comp%, Rating, etc.) will probably be about the same as last year with the exception that I think his INT% will be lower next year, but he will do it on more attempts so his counting numbers (Yards, TDs, DYAR, etc.) will be higher.

 

[SE174]

One thing I'm fairly confident about after watching him in the second half of the season, is that this year he'll have 30+ TDs, and less than 10 INTs.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Last year Wilson faced 13 of the top 16 defenses in his 18 games. He faced a top 10 defense 9 times.

Looking at the upcoming schedule, of course we don't know where those defenses will rank when it's all done, but based upon where they ended up on FO's defensive rankings last year, he's projected to face 10 top 16 defenses all season and 7 of the top 10. That's still a tough schedule, but a little better than what he faced the year before. Considering he's got a year under his belt and will get the reps this offseason and has been studying, it's safe to say we should see improvement on the order of, say +20%.

3600 yds. 31 TD's/ 9 INT's

 

[Lady Talon]

I'd be very happy if he was simply as good as last year. Obviously hoping for significant improvement, but I'm not going to freak out if the stats regress a bit. Making a big jump after a stellar rookie year shouldn't be assumed.

Last five QBs to win ROTY (pre-RG3): Newton, Bradford, Ryan, Young and Roethlisberger.

• Newton and Roethlisberger stagnated statistically in their second year (some would say they played worse, few would say better).
• Bradford and Ryan actually played worse in their sophomore seasons.
• Young was surprisingly the only one to show improvement, but he also had the worst rookie year (statistically) of the five.

You realize that all the QBs you listed were:

• selected in the first round, as opposed to height bias alone dropping them to the 3rd or later.
• with the exception of RG3 and Newton, given lavish contracts.
• not discounted in the ORotY voting.
• given their starting jobs, rather then required to win it over a seemingly superior and definately higher paid veteran.
• not required to weather some 8 weeks of vanilla offensive plays that limited their effectiveness and made defense jobs easier.
• hyped as the salvation of their franchise before they ever took a snap.

Russell Wilson is closer to the Tom Brady mold then to any of the QBs you listed. He has a lot driving him and the will to prove it over the golden children.

 

[DavidSeven]

I'd be very happy if he was simply as good as last year. Obviously hoping for significant improvement, but I'm not going to freak out if the stats regress a bit. Making a big jump after a stellar rookie year shouldn't be assumed.

Last five QBs to win ROTY (pre-RG3): Newton, Bradford, Ryan, Young and Roethlisberger.

• Newton and Roethlisberger stagnated statistically in their second year (some would say they played worse, few would say better).
• Bradford and Ryan actually played worse in their sophomore seasons.
• Young was surprisingly the only one to show improvement, but he also had the worst rookie year (statistically) of the five.

You realize that all the QBs you listed were:

• selected in the first round, as opposed to height bias alone dropping them to the 3rd or later.
• with the exception of RG3 and Newton, given lavish contracts.
• not discounted in the ORotY voting.
• given their starting jobs, rather then required to win it over a seemingly superior and definately higher paid veteran.
• not required to weather some 8 weeks of vanilla offensive plays that limited their effectiveness and made defense jobs easier.
• hyped as the salvation of their franchise before they ever took a snap.

Russell Wilson is closer to the Tom Brady mold then to any of the QBs you listed. He has a lot driving him and the will to prove it over the golden children.

None of these things you mentioned has any bearing on determining future performance. All I said was that making a huge jump after putting up a stellar rookie campaign shouldn't be assumed, which is supported by recent history. I'm a huge fan of Wilson, but I worry about people putting unrealistic expectations on him. If he put up the exact same numbers for the next decade he'd still go down as the greatest Seahawks QB in history.

 

[DavidSeven]

Russell Wilson is closer to the Tom Brady mold then to any of the QBs you listed. He has a lot driving him and the will to prove it over the golden children.

Also: Tom Brady's completion percentage, passer rating, and W/L record were all worse as a second year starter.

My point: I'm totally confident that over time, RW is going to go down as one of the best this game has seen, but people shouldn't freak out if his numbers stay steady for a year or are even a little worse. Dude's already playing at a Top 5 QB level.