Seahawker
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I have tried to be impartial during this exercise, it is very much subjective and may contain unseen variables to arrive at a conclusion.
Example-
The 2011 draft of KJ Wright (R-4) & Sherman (R-5) was knocked down to a A- because neither Carpenter (R-1) or Moffitt (R-3) became an OL solution.
2010 9 picks A
Russell Okung
Earl Thomas
Golden Tate
Kam Chancellor
2011 9 picks A-
KJ Wright
Richard Sherman
2012 10 picks A
Bruce Irvin
Bobby Wagner
Russell Wilson
2013 11 picks F+
Luke Wilson
2014 9 picks D-
Paul Richardson
Justin Britt
2015 9 picks B
Frank Clark
Tyler Lockett
2016 10 picks D+
Jarran Reed
2017 11 picks C-
Chris Carson
Ethan Pocic
Shaquill Griffin
2018 9 picks D+
Will Dissly
Michael Dickson
2019 11 picks C-
DK Metcalf
2020 8 picks D
DeeJay Dallas
2021 3 picks F+
Stone Forsythe
2022 9 picks A
Charles Cross
Boye Mafe
Kenneth Walker lll
Abe Lucas
Coby Bryant
Riq Woolen
So far 2023 is an A and 2024 is a solid B with potential to turn into an A.
From 2010 to 2024 John had 136 total draft picks resulting in 38 notable starters for a 28% hit rate.
Average success rates would be considered to be-
30% good.
32% great.
Two observations.
1) John's 28% draft success rate does not factor in draft picks he traded for vet players. Re-calculating that factor would likely put JS in the 30- 32% range.
2) I can not prove or disprove, but I believe John's trade downs have been neither overly good or bad. I see them as a wash, neutral.
Of active GM's, John shines in one important category, percentage of drafting Pro Bowlers. He ranks 3rd best with a 14.58 hit rate, with only Mickey Loomis 14.60 and Jerry Jones 14.72 ranked higher. Rick Smith (Texans) is #4 at 12.33 and it soon starts to fall into the 9-10 range after the top ten and less successful down the line.
Some perspective:
One study found that only 32% of drafted players from 2012 to 2020 were considered major contributors. Another study suggested a "Bust" rate as high as 37%.
There is no definitive evidence, but after some investigation I feel these are reasonable odds of finding solid starters in each round.
1st 55%
2nd 35%
3rd 20%
4th 15%
5th 10%
6th 5%
7th 3%
One number that cross my path suggested that drafting an average of 2.3 solid starters per draft would be considered a success.
Upon arriving in Seattle John nailed his first three drafts resulting in a Super Bowl win. He then went on a near decade slide (2013- 2021) that could be attributed to many things. -Low draft slatings, weak player pools, poor scouting/grading, ect.
JS now in 22', 23' and 24' has returned to his earlier form, boosted by his cache of draft picks from the RW3 trade.
During our 2014 & 2015 Super Bowl appearances John was a consensus top 5 GM. That has fallen to about a #10- 14 rating because of his 8 year draft drought, recent lack of playoff wins and inability to maintain a servicable offensive line.
John's rating has been buoyed by his early roster building success, the teams consistent win % and his ability to find Pro Bowlers.
Obviously John's biggest flaw has been his failure to maintain a functional OL, specifically devaluing IOL.
I also think trading down & away from talent & diluting drafts are another possible negative. QB scouting and taking more draft shots on them could be improved upon.
I like John and think his war- room has been on the upswing the last couple of years. That said, I think it is imperative that JS fixes this OLine this offseason if he wants to continue to be viewed as a top GM in this league.
It is very difficult to pin- point an overall grade for John other than to say his first 3 years and his last 3 years as Seattle's GM have been straight A's. This is an incredible accomplishment in this league but you have to couple that with an 8 year stretch of below average & failing grades from 2013 to 2021. Hopefully that sample was an anomaly and will not recur.
This evaluation has been subjective and I have tried to be unbiased throughout. It may contain inaccuracies and opinion that may not be credible.
Example-
The 2011 draft of KJ Wright (R-4) & Sherman (R-5) was knocked down to a A- because neither Carpenter (R-1) or Moffitt (R-3) became an OL solution.
2010 9 picks A
Russell Okung
Earl Thomas
Golden Tate
Kam Chancellor
2011 9 picks A-
KJ Wright
Richard Sherman
2012 10 picks A
Bruce Irvin
Bobby Wagner
Russell Wilson
2013 11 picks F+
Luke Wilson
2014 9 picks D-
Paul Richardson
Justin Britt
2015 9 picks B
Frank Clark
Tyler Lockett
2016 10 picks D+
Jarran Reed
2017 11 picks C-
Chris Carson
Ethan Pocic
Shaquill Griffin
2018 9 picks D+
Will Dissly
Michael Dickson
2019 11 picks C-
DK Metcalf
2020 8 picks D
DeeJay Dallas
2021 3 picks F+
Stone Forsythe
2022 9 picks A
Charles Cross
Boye Mafe
Kenneth Walker lll
Abe Lucas
Coby Bryant
Riq Woolen
So far 2023 is an A and 2024 is a solid B with potential to turn into an A.
From 2010 to 2024 John had 136 total draft picks resulting in 38 notable starters for a 28% hit rate.
Average success rates would be considered to be-
30% good.
32% great.
Two observations.
1) John's 28% draft success rate does not factor in draft picks he traded for vet players. Re-calculating that factor would likely put JS in the 30- 32% range.
2) I can not prove or disprove, but I believe John's trade downs have been neither overly good or bad. I see them as a wash, neutral.
Of active GM's, John shines in one important category, percentage of drafting Pro Bowlers. He ranks 3rd best with a 14.58 hit rate, with only Mickey Loomis 14.60 and Jerry Jones 14.72 ranked higher. Rick Smith (Texans) is #4 at 12.33 and it soon starts to fall into the 9-10 range after the top ten and less successful down the line.
Some perspective:
One study found that only 32% of drafted players from 2012 to 2020 were considered major contributors. Another study suggested a "Bust" rate as high as 37%.
There is no definitive evidence, but after some investigation I feel these are reasonable odds of finding solid starters in each round.
1st 55%
2nd 35%
3rd 20%
4th 15%
5th 10%
6th 5%
7th 3%
One number that cross my path suggested that drafting an average of 2.3 solid starters per draft would be considered a success.
Upon arriving in Seattle John nailed his first three drafts resulting in a Super Bowl win. He then went on a near decade slide (2013- 2021) that could be attributed to many things. -Low draft slatings, weak player pools, poor scouting/grading, ect.
JS now in 22', 23' and 24' has returned to his earlier form, boosted by his cache of draft picks from the RW3 trade.
During our 2014 & 2015 Super Bowl appearances John was a consensus top 5 GM. That has fallen to about a #10- 14 rating because of his 8 year draft drought, recent lack of playoff wins and inability to maintain a servicable offensive line.
John's rating has been buoyed by his early roster building success, the teams consistent win % and his ability to find Pro Bowlers.
Obviously John's biggest flaw has been his failure to maintain a functional OL, specifically devaluing IOL.
I also think trading down & away from talent & diluting drafts are another possible negative. QB scouting and taking more draft shots on them could be improved upon.
I like John and think his war- room has been on the upswing the last couple of years. That said, I think it is imperative that JS fixes this OLine this offseason if he wants to continue to be viewed as a top GM in this league.
It is very difficult to pin- point an overall grade for John other than to say his first 3 years and his last 3 years as Seattle's GM have been straight A's. This is an incredible accomplishment in this league but you have to couple that with an 8 year stretch of below average & failing grades from 2013 to 2021. Hopefully that sample was an anomaly and will not recur.
This evaluation has been subjective and I have tried to be unbiased throughout. It may contain inaccuracies and opinion that may not be credible.
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