Calling it Now - Save This Post!

[Welshers]

I'm putting it in writing now so there's evidence I called it once it comes true! As always haters will try to rewrite history and say I didn't nail my prediction! This will show them!

Russ is gonna be a BUST in 2022! Mr. 3 and OUT had a pff grade of 18th qb in the league last year! Denver has hamstrung themselves with a giant contract!

His play has fallen off a cliff since the second half of 2020! Trust me. Denver won't make the playoffs. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, but I won't be! I look forward to bumping this thread after dot net conspiracy theorists try to discredit me!

RUSSELL "3 n OUT" Wilson will be a huge disappointment and miss the playoffs in the 22-23 season! Mark my words!

 

[GemCity]

I think he’ll have one of his best statistical seasons ever.
Playoff wise, I can’t call it. He’s in the best division in football this year.

When the belief is that all you need is a QB to be competitive and perhaps win a SB, such as what I’ve heard with Denver, anything less will be considered as a failure.

With that in mind, the odds are heavily stacked against him/them.

Ohh…and I hope they go 1-16 (beat Rams).

 

[Appyhawk]

I just hope Denver gets off to a horrid start by losing game 1. After that the only thing I care about is to see us keep getting better.

 

[chris98251]

H will have the most turnovers of his career this year.

 

[camdawg]

I'm putting it in writing now so there's evidence I called it once it comes true! As always haters will try to rewrite history and say I didn't nail my prediction! This will show them!

Russ is gonna be a BUST in 2022! Mr. 3 and OUT had a pff grade of 18th qb in the league last year! Denver has hamstrung themselves with a giant contract!

His play has fallen off a cliff since the second half of 2020! Trust me. Denver won't make the playoffs. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, but I won't be! I look forward to bumping this thread after dot net conspiracy theorists try to discredit me!

RUSSELL "3 n OUT" Wilson will be a huge disappointment and miss the playoffs in the 22-23 season! Mark my words!

Sigh.. .his play did not fall off a cliff.

Until he hurt his hand on Aaron Donald, Russ had a QB rating of 125 on the season, which I believe was leading the league. He was passing for 70% completions, ten TDs to just one INT.

He was awful in his first three games back against GB, AZ, and WASH. And was pretty decent from then on, except for the second Rams game.

If Cover 2 is the magic formula that teams supposedly figured out mid season in 2020 to stop Russ, then how come it didn't work in 2021 while he was healthy?

The Broncos should feel optimistic that if Russ can stay healthy, he should have a great season.

 

[rcaido]

This will only happen if he gets injured. Wilson is a winner no matter where he goes. I see the Broncos winning 12 to 14 games this year.

If the Broncos continues to make the playoffs for the next 5 years and we dont make it in 5 years we obviously did the wrong move. Probably the worse Seattle sports move in history. Right there w/ not resigning Randy Johnson and trading Scottie Pippen for Olden Polynice.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Don't bother Rcaido, Russ sucks, don't you forget it

 

[Sgt. Largent]

This will only happen if he gets injured. Wilson is a winner no matter where he goes. I see the Broncos winning 12 to 14 games this year.

If the Broncos continues to make the playoffs for the next 5 years and we dont make it in 5 years we obviously did the wrong move. Probably the worse Seattle sports move in history. Right there w/ not resigning Randy Johnson and trading Scottie Pippen for Olden Polynice.

In the AFC West? Nope.

In fact they're probably still the 3rd or 4th best team in their own division, even with Russ.

A lot of talent for sure, and young. But damn man, this might be the toughest division in football in a decade.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Good, hopefully the lose early and often all season.

 

[keasley45]

Sigh.. .his play did not fall off a cliff.

Until he hurt his hand on Aaron Donald, Russ had a QB rating of 125 on the season, which I believe was leading the league. He was passing for 70% completions, ten TDs to just one INT.

He was awful in his first three games back against GB, AZ, and WASH. And was pretty decent from then on, except for the second Rams game.

If Cover 2 is the magic formula that teams supposedly figured out mid season in 2020 to stop Russ, then how come it didn't work in 2021 while he was healthy?

The Broncos should feel optimistic that if Russ can stay healthy, he should have a great season.

He also captained one of the worst, if not THE worst offenses in the league on passing 3rd downs and drive duration. That was before he got hurt. And the stats weren't a ton better last year. Nor have his stats on 3rd down ever been in line with his rating.

People fall in love with the stats and ratings, but forget that Russ had a QB rating of 111 against the Washington Commanders last year in what was probably his second worst performance of the season and top 5 worst in his career.

If you don't turn the ball over, your rating will benefit.

If you throw a high percentage of completions, you rating will benefit.

And of course if you hit explosive plays and TDs... your rating will benefit. Russ does all 3.

But if you throw fewer incompletions because you're pulling the ball down on plays that work, but you dont execute... and if not throwing the ball results in a sack, and a negative play, your third down difficulty goes up. 3rd down failure rate goes up and you contribute to your offense becoming stagnant.

If you're foregoing the drive sustaining pass game, and instead playing uptempo ball that gets you points in drives that last 2 minutes or less... your offense scores, your rating goes up, and your defense is right back on on the field again.

Russ's performance on passing 3rd downs and known passing downs is barely middle of the pack over his career with only a few exceptions through the years. You can look this up for yourself. It's not slander It's not an aberration. It's not cherrypicking stats.

He is an average QB in those situations. Thankfully, his skillset erased a lot of his shortfalls with big plays and just uncanny arm talent and what I'd consider to be an unmatched ability to just ball.

But he is who he is, and even when he was at his peak powers, the traditional passing game and breaking down defenses by making the designed play... moving the chains in 3rd down situations through the air... he's never done that consistently well. Just fact.

He's phenomenal. I just wonder how much longer he can keep up his style of play.it was already in a downward trend. We'll see if thr mile high air breathes life into his 'old' lungs.

 

[rcaido]

In the AFC West? Nope.

In fact they're probably still the 3rd or 4th best team in their own division, even with Russ.

A lot of talent for sure, and young. But damn man, this might be the toughest division in football in a decade.

Yes Wilson was in the toughest division in football in the the NFC and now he will be in the toughest AFC. If he continues to win, then obviously it was Wilson "carrying the team" right?

 

[keasley45]

In the AFC West? Nope.

In fact they're probably still the 3rd or 4th best team in their own division, even with Russ.

A lot of talent for sure, and young. But damn man, this might be the toughest division in football in a decade.

Agreed. Duh Rayduhs are gonna surprise some people this year with the weapons they have.

The Chargers just need to put the final pieces together to contend for the whole pie.

And the Chiefs...you wonder how much longer Kelsey can keep it going and what Hill leaving will do to them. But even after looking pretty mortal against the Bengals, Mahomes is still Mahomes.

I just don't get the hype around Denver's roster.

Their o-line was just average last year and they didn't make any significant improvement.

They're down a wr for the season

Their DLine had a few new pieces to help Chubb out, but they don't exactly jump off the page...

Te's? See our depth chart.

Their back end... there's certainly talent there.

Their running backs are good as well.

And then there's Russ, who honestly doesn't even need an OC to call plays. He can just do his thing and put up points.

But I definitely don't see them being better than KC or LA. MAYBE Las Vegas...

Glad we don't have to play those teams twice a year. We'll, I'd actually love to play Russ twice a year...he brings the juice back to what use to be my favorite seahawks rivalry back when Elway was still wet behind the ears.

 

[rcaido]

He also captained one of the worst, if not THE worst offenses in the league on passing 3rd downs and drive duration. That was before he got hurt. And the stats weren't a ton better last year. Nor have his stats on 3rd down ever been in line with his rating.

People fall in love with the stats and ratings, but forget that Russ had a QB rating of 111 against the Washington Commanders last year in what was probably his second worst performance of the season and top 5 worst in his career.

If you don't turn the ball over, your rating will benefit.

If you throw a high percentage of completions, you rating will benefit.

And of course if you hit explosive plays and TDs... your rating will benefit. Russ does all 3.

But if you throw fewer incompletions because you're pulling the ball down on plays that work, but you dont execute... and if not throwing the ball results in a sack, and a negative play, your third down difficulty goes up. 3rd down failure rate goes up and you contribute to your offense becoming stagnant.

If you're foregoing the drive sustaining pass game, and instead playing uptempo ball that gets you points in drives that last 2 minutes or less... your offense scores, your rating goes up, and your defense is right back on on the field again.

Russ's performance on passing 3rd downs and known passing downs is barely middle of the pack over his career with only a few exceptions through the years. You can look this up for yourself. It's not slander It's not an aberration. It's not cherrypicking stats.

He is an average QB in those situations. Thankfully, his skillset erased a lot of his shortfalls with big plays and just uncanny arm talent and what I'd consider to be an unmatched ability to just ball.

But he is who he is, and even when he was at his peak powers, the traditional passing game and breaking down defenses by making the designed play... moving the chains in 3rd down situations through the air... he's never done that consistently well. Just fact.

He's phenomenal. I just wonder how much longer he can keep up his style of play.it was already in a downward trend. We'll see if thr mile high air breathes life into his 'old' lungs.

Cherry picking, i posted this in another thread awhile back about his 3rd down.

I screen shot the comparison to Brady & Wilson.

Wilson 2013
View attachment 53747

Brady 2013
View attachment 53748

What you're doing is cherry picking on 3rd downs. If you're going to show stats, you need to provide all of the 3rd down situations. I provided the good, bad, and ugly. You just want to paint Wilson as a non factor by showing his poor passer rating on 3rd and long and not provide the passing short 3rd downs because that fits your narrative when it comes to passer ratings...Wilson is one of the best in that situation.

Like i mention before, Geno Smith had amazing 3rd down rating 100+ w/ a very high percentage in completion w/ almost 70% which is very misleading. His first down conversion rate was 31%, only Drew Lock was worse w/ 29% rating in the whole nfl.

I decided to check https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ your stat site to see if they have the first down on 3rd down conversion and luckily they do for the 2013 season.

I decided compare Wilson to some of the elite QBs/HOF in 2013.

3rd Down 4-6yrds

Wilson 26/51 51%
Brady 34/65 52%
Manning 36/66 54.5%
Rodgers 18/29 62%
Brees 37/56 66%

Brees was the dominate QB here, but Wilson was only 1 to 3% behind Brady & Manning. That's just a difference of 2 first downs

3rd down 7-9yrds

Wilson 11/24 45.8%
Rodgers 5/17 29.4%
Brees 13/35 37%
Brady 13/34 38.2%
Manning 17/41 41.4%

This is pretty interesting in that Wilson actually beat out all these great QBs. How about that.

3rd down 10+ yards

Wilson 9/42 21.4%
Brady 7/44 15.9%
Rodgers 5/22 22%
Brees 12/49 24.4%
Manning 12/34 35%

Manning wins it but the rest are very compressed. Just 1 first down difference changes the order except for Brady. Looking back at the stats, Brady actually has the least amount success on 3rd downs compared to these other 5 qbs. Yet he is the GOAT.

We didn't even factor Wilson's running compared to these statue QBs. We can't include it because QBs are only measured in throwing the ball. Also 5 game winning drives is not important because of strong defense. Just going by passing Wilson was able to hang w/ the big boy HOFs and actually had better stats then them in different scenarios. Not too bad for a game manager who had a small importance in contributing to a super bowl.

 

[keasley45]

Cherry picking, i posted this in another thread awhile back about his 3rd down.

Conversions, not completion percentage

Thread 'Are we really that good through the air?' https://www.seahawks.net/threads/are-we-really-that-good-through-the-air.177980/

Russ has always been tops at completing passes when he throws them. Insanely accurate.

 

[RiverDog]

I'm putting it in writing now so there's evidence I called it once it comes true! As always haters will try to rewrite history and say I didn't nail my prediction! This will show them!

Russ is gonna be a BUST in 2022! Mr. 3 and OUT had a pff grade of 18th qb in the league last year! Denver has hamstrung themselves with a giant contract!

His play has fallen off a cliff since the second half of 2020! Trust me. Denver won't make the playoffs. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, but I won't be! I look forward to bumping this thread after dot net conspiracy theorists try to discredit me!

RUSSELL "3 n OUT" Wilson will be a huge disappointment and miss the playoffs in the 22-23 season! Mark my words!

I'm 50/50 on this subject. Yes, Russell's performance has slipped a lot since midway through 2020. Even before his injury, he had the worst 3rd down completion percentage of any starting QB in the league. He's slowing down, has lost a lot of his escapability, and hasn't done a good job of adjusting to the aging process. His lack of height, which largely due to his mobility wasn't much of a factor early in his career, is now starting to affect his field vision.

But on the other hand, Russell still has an excellent arm, is very accurate and doesn't turn the ball over, and there's no one that works at his game harder than he does. I'm convinced that if anyone can turn around a career and regain his lost magic, that it's Russell. In addition, he's going to be in an offense that is specifically catered to his skill set and will have more input in it than he did with Pete.

I'm not going to be so foolish as to make a call this early without having seen him play in Denver's offense. At this point, it could go either way.

 

[rcaido]

Conversions, not completion percentage

Thread 'Are we really that good through the air?' https://www.seahawks.net/threads/are-we-really-that-good-through-the-air.177980/

Russ has always been tops at completing passes when he throws them. Insanely accurate.

Those stats are for conversions. 3rd down that actually got first downs. Its worthless to complete a pass if you dont convert. Wilson was just as good as the QB greats/HOF at the time.

That's why i put Geno's great ratings on 3rd down but awful 3rd down conversion.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Yes Wilson was in the toughest division in football in the the NFC and now he will be in the toughest AFC. If he continues to win, then obviously it was Wilson "carrying the team" right?

That's a fallacy in any of these discussions, no QB carries a team.

The other position groups and phases of the game are too important. Russ was full of crap when he said that.

Dude played with an all time great defense, awesome special teams and a HOF caliber RB.

And as soon as those parts of the team left? Yep, no more carrying huh.

 

[Welshers]

That's a fallacy in any of these discussions, no QB carries a team.

The other position groups and phases of the game are too important. Russ was full of crap when he said that.

Dude played with an all time great defense, awesome special teams and a HOF caliber RB.

And as soon as those parts of the team left? Yep, no more carrying huh.

Well said. If he was "carrying" the team then wouldn't they have won a single divisional round playoff game since 2015? They haven't.

 

[GemCity]

Sigh.. .his play did not fall off a cliff.

Until he hurt his hand on Aaron Donald, Russ had a QB rating of 125 on the season, which I believe was leading the league. He was passing for 70% completions, ten TDs to just one INT.

He was awful in his first three games back against GB, AZ, and WASH. And was pretty decent from then on, except for the second Rams game.

If Cover 2 is the magic formula that teams supposedly figured out mid season in 2020 to stop Russ, then how come it didn't work in 2021 while he was healthy?

The Broncos should feel optimistic that if Russ can stay healthy, he should have a great season.

The cover 2 argument is weak at best. Russ was often throwing in the 4th, to claw back once being down a score or two.

Rather predictable and he had just as much success, if not more, than any other QB.

When you’re in the lower tier for pass attempts per game, it’s easy to call out without telling the full story.

 

[FresnoHawk]

I'm in the middle. There's a reason Russ chose Denver. They have very good deep ball wr's. And that's Russell's game. He will make alot of big plays this year throwing deep to them. But it also will take about a whole season to gel. New head coach, new Qb, new schemes. = 8-8 or 8-9
How ever many regular season games there is now I forget. I see them starting hot and then fizzling in the end.