LymonHawk":2fivw2ch said:
2Cool4School":2fivw2ch said:
Still no reason to pass it. He was trying to be to sneaky and it backfired. He could have ran a QB sneak or a even a fullback run wich will most likely have been a TD not to mention you have 3 more tries. PLus you have marshawn.
3 more tries?
He probably meant three tries total:
2nd down - Marshawn Lynch run
Touchdown ~80% of the time
or
Use the timeout ~19.5% of the time (less than 0.5% chance of a Marshawn fumble)
3rd down - Play action, throw a fade up to Kearse, Matthews (the hot hand), or a TE
Touchdown ~60% of the time
or
Incompletion stops the clock ~38% of the time (2% chance of a Wilson INT)
4th down - Marshawn Lynch run
Touchdown ~80% of the time
or
Lose the game ~20% of the time
These are rough approximations based on the team's relative strength in power-running situations, the Patriots' weakness in that area, and Wilson/Marshawn's relative turnover ratios. There is also the possibility of a sack on the 3rd down play action (~9%), which would necessitate running to the line to get off one last play and would reduce the probability for success on the subsequent play. If we assume these very rough approximations are accurate, which they are not, then the total probability of scoring a TD on three tries from the one-yard line was 98.4%.