23.8% chance of winning against the Chargers?

[AROS]

I like our chances after watching this game but keep in mind, the Broncos D is legit, ranked #3 overall and their front was giving Herbert and company fits all night long. That will not be the case against the Seahawks. Sure, I like the hope that our D can use this last game as a potential spring board but let's not confuse our front with the Broncos front. I promise you Herbert will be throwing TDs next Sunday.

And with KA coming back, it's going to be even more challenging. My preliminary take is this will be a loss for us but by no means is this game unwinnable. If Geno is cookin' and our defense stands up again, we have a legitimate shot to take this one.

 

[Mizak]

They won 2 straight against Seahawks. You think the third time is the charm?

 

[Rainger]

Yes the Hawks now have an offence and a good QB

 

[knownone]

I'm guessing preseason predictions are factored into the prediction model.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

ESPN predictor gave us less than 24% of winning, that is close to zero chances.
View attachment 55171

But overall the two teams are more even stats wise, identical points allowed per game and almost identical points scored.
IView attachment 55172

I like our chances after watching this game but keep in mind, the Broncos D is legit, ranked #3 overall and their front was giving Herbert and company fits all night long. That will not be the case against the Seahawks. Sure, I like the hope that our D can use this last game as a potential spring board but let's not confuse our front with the Broncos front. I promise you Herbert will be throwing TDs next Sunday.

And with KA coming back, it's going to be even more challenging. My preliminary take is this will be a loss for us but by no means is this game unwinnable. If Geno is cookin' and our defense stands up again, we have a legitimate shot to take this one.

I saw some things that concerned me vs AZ. I think the league has figured out that the way to beat Geno is to get pressure on him. AZ threw some stunts and games at the Hawks O line and they got what 5-6 sacks out of it which was enough to throw the Hawks O off kilter at times. So what do they do, watch film and adjust. I think picking up these stunts and games is going to be the next challenge for the O line. guaranteed the Hawks are going to see it until they show they can adjust and be effective against it.

The other thing was what Carroll was talking about in his PC about the definition of holding and how the tackles have to release. I watched and that was a factor in the sacks... so im a little concerned about that. Not sure our rookie tackles are going to be as effective as they have been. Hope im wrong.

I dont think Geno is going to be throwing up big points until they adjust and im not sure how long thats going to take. Maybe scheme can protect him this is a great time for Waldren to shine.

Just my take but I knew the league was going to adjust to Geno. Lets hope Im wrong and the Hawks get this issue fixed sooner than later.

 

[m0ng0]

One game at a time, just keep finding ways to win and I'm happy

 

[SoulfishHawk]

This ^
Couldn't care less how it looks, just win.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

If the game plan vs Geno will be to blitz at least the Chargers put a lot of it on film last night for the Hawks to look at.

 

[Jerhawk]

Chargers are a good club. I'll be studying their tendencies and film tonight vs Denver, and I'll let you guys know later in the week if 23.8% is still a fair number.

After further review, 23.8% is a fair number. I'd bump it up to 36.7% though.

Herbert has a great arm, and they have star power across the board

 

[AROS]

The good news for us is Herbert is clearly not 100%. He has a fire hose for an arm and with the amount of check downs and short to intermediate stuff we saw last night that shows me that rib injury is bothering him. He may not get back to 100% anytime soon.

 

[SNDavidson]

Bad news is that the Chargers are desperate, good news as others have said is that they have key players including a star qb that are digned up. If we can get that push up the middle again and stop the run I think we'll be pleased with the result.

 

[Chrome_Seahawk]

 

[pittpnthrs]

The Chargers are the most unpredictable team in the NFL and has been for years. They always seem to have an all-star roster, but it never translates to wins for some reason. The smart money is to take them, but I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if Seattle wins or even blows them out.

 

[jammerhawk]

If the referees skew the outcome in favour of The Chargers like we saw last night I'd expect the chances of winning would be 0%.

 

[Rat]

The Chargers are the most unpredictable team in the NFL and has been for years. They always seem to have an all-star roster, but it never translates to wins for some reason.

They seem to be the league's most injury-plagued team every season.

 

[bmorepunk]

That's actually 24% higher than 0%.

Math, what it be.

OP is innumerate; the vast majority of people are.

OP knew they had a 24% probability of winning a big lottery every time they bought a ticket, they'd buy them like crazy. But I bet OP also thinks a 90% chance of something happening is a sure thing.

 

[TraderGary]

I'm a transplanted Seahawks fan currently living in Vegas. After watching that game last night, I'm going to the casino tomorrow and putting money on the Hawks plus the 6.5.

Herbert is a damn good QB when he's HEALTHY, but clearly he's nowhere near healthy right now. I saw a QB last night that as soon as the ball was snapped, looked immediately to his checkdowns. He didn't even bother looking downfield because he knew he didn't have the arm strength to throw downfield into tight windows because of his ribs. And on the rare occasions when he did try to throw downfield, it looked like a wounded duck ripe for interceptions.

In my amateur mind, it seems to me the gameplan really should not be difficult. On defense, play tight coverage on the TE's and RB's coming out of the backfield, and isolate Woolen on KA. On offense, move the pocket with Geno to avoid the rush and go back to a more dynamic gameplan like we saw in the previous 2 games prior to the Cardinals. Get Walker in space and on the edges more where he's more elusive and has a chance to break one.

As long as PC doesn't have his defense playing really soft underneath and giving up easy short completions and first downs, I don't see the Chargers putting up a lot of points. I'm gladly taking the 6.5 points and running with it. Even if the Hawks don't win (which of course I hope they do), I think it's going to be a close game either way.

The only thing that concerns me is PC's soft zones and allowing easy short and intermediate completions down the field to wide open receivers. But given Herbert's obvious limitations right now, that would just be asinine.

 

[Ruminator]

This game is a big game for the Seahawks. It's a huge opportunity for them to see how they measure up to a likely playoff-bound team loaded with talent (a few key players hobbled by injuries notwithstanding). Seahawks lose decisively? Whatever. Seahawks lose a squeaker? Commendable! Seahawks win? Dayum! People are going to start putting them under the microscope to try to figure out how they've been able to procure champagne from what they presumed to be sewer water. And like I mentioned elsewhere, we're already reaping immediate dividends from some of our 2022 draft picks. A truly remarkable testament to the talent recognition and shrewdness of the front office. But again, I think this game will, in many ways, serve as a big barometer type game.

 

[boltfanseattle]

I'm a transplanted Seahawks fan currently living in Vegas. After watching that game last night, I'm going to the casino tomorrow and putting money on the Hawks plus the 6.5.

Herbert is a damn good QB when he's HEALTHY, but clearly he's nowhere near healthy right now. I saw a QB last night that as soon as the ball was snapped, looked immediately to his checkdowns. He didn't even bother looking downfield because he knew he didn't have the arm strength to throw downfield into tight windows because of his ribs. And on the rare occasions when he did try to throw downfield, it looked like a wounded duck ripe for interceptions.

In my amateur mind, it seems to me the gameplan really should not be difficult. On defense, play tight coverage on the TE's and RB's coming out of the backfield, and isolate Woolen on KA. On offense, move the pocket with Geno to avoid the rush and go back to a more dynamic gameplan like we saw in the previous 2 games prior to the Cardinals. Get Walker in space and on the edges more where he's more elusive and has a chance to break one.

As long as PC doesn't have his defense playing really soft underneath and giving up easy short completions and first downs, I don't see the Chargers putting up a lot of points. I'm gladly taking the 6.5 points and running with it. Even if the Hawks don't win (which of course I hope they do), I think it's going to be a close game either way.

The only thing that concerns me is PC's soft zones and allowing easy short and intermediate completions down the field to wide open receivers. But given Herbert's obvious limitations right now, that would just be asinine.

Very good take.

 

[boltfanseattle]

They seem to be the league's most injury-plagued team every season.

Yes. EVERY DANG SEASON.