2015 Our Offense - what changed?

[TwistedHusky]

I have noticed an interesting narrative about Wilson emerging - that a lot of our odd playcalling is a symptom of Wilson's inability to use a quick strike, middle of the field passing game. I had always considered this an issue with the playcalling but some are adamant that Wilson cannot do this.

However, in 2015 it seems like he did. I seem to remember a much faster offense and the use of more slants, curls.

The weird part is that the stats don't seem to bear this out. Maybe I am misremembering?

I know that there was a large jump in his yardage from 2014 to 2015 (3475 to 4024) but the number of long passes was larger in 2015 than 2016 and his average yds per pass was more in 2015. So why don't we remember 2016 the same way? He actually had more yds passing in 2016 but less TD efficiency.

(Part could be that season was 2 halves, I seem to remember him going on a tear in the latter half of the season. Was that just a lucky streak like flipping heads 10 times in a row? Or was it a system that finally clicked for him?)

As one of the resident Wilson 'haters'* it is interesting to see if we can figure out whether we can recapture 2015 on some level. It seemed to work until we abandoned that offense (in the playoffs, but that might be because we were shelled from playing in the IceBowl II and then had to travel across the country twice...because I think we went back to Seattle for some unknown reason after that game)

2015 is the example you have to use when people say that Wilson cannot work within a rhythm offense or use the short/intermediate passing game effectively. So either something materially changed (if the separation is in the preparation...then did the preparation change?) or he was working within a framework that masked these supposed weaknesses. Or that never was the offense and I am just not remembering it right?

The only way forward given our roster is to find an approach that gets the ball out before pressure gets to us. That means replicating what we can from 2015 offense. So I thought a thread where people smarter and more knowledgeable than I am can share their thoughts on this might make sense.

Can Wilson do this again? Why or Why not?





* Not true. I just don't believe you give him a free pass or focus more on Wilson being great vs the team.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The only way forward given our roster is to find an approach that gets the ball out before pressure gets to us. That means replicating what we can from 2015 offense. So I thought a thread where people smarter and more knowledgeable than I am can share their thoughts on this might make sense. .

We've always had this approach with Russell at QB. The problem is his protection is actually worse than it was in 2015, and more importantly the roster is different.

What's worked for Russell in the past is having a RB like Lynch that defenses had to respect the play action on, AND receivers that Russell trusts, mainly Doug and Kearse (and in 2015 Lockett stretching the defense on play action).

None of this exists now, so defenses with nasty front fours like the Broncos and Bears can just pin their ears back and collapse the pocket because they neither respect our run game nor our receivers to beat press one on one coverage.

That's what we've seen so far, to a T.

So you can't just say "we gotta develop a quick passing game to relieve the pressure." This only happens with a run game and receivers that can get separation quickly.........and again, receivers that Russell trusts implicitly to be EXACTLY where they're suppose to be in those tight short to intermediate windows.

Without Doug, it just hasn't been there, and neither has the run game cause Pete is too impatient.

 

[mrt144]

I have noticed an interesting narrative about Wilson emerging - that a lot of our odd playcalling is a symptom of Wilson's inability to use a quick strike, middle of the field passing game. I had always considered this an issue with the playcalling but some are adamant that Wilson cannot do this.

However, in 2015 it seems like he did. I seem to remember a much faster offense and the use of more slants, curls.

The weird part is that the stats don't seem to bear this out. Maybe I am misremembering?

I know that there was a large jump in his yardage from 2014 to 2015 (3475 to 4024) but the number of long passes was larger in 2015 than 2016 and his average yds per pass was more in 2015. So why don't we remember 2016 the same way? He actually had more yds passing in 2016 but less TD efficiency.

(Part could be that season was 2 halves, I seem to remember him going on a tear in the latter half of the season. Was that just a lucky streak like flipping heads 10 times in a row? Or was it a system that finally clicked for him?)

As one of the resident Wilson 'haters'* it is interesting to see if we can figure out whether we can recapture 2015 on some level. It seemed to work until we abandoned that offense (in the playoffs, but that might be because we were shelled from playing in the IceBowl II and then had to travel across the country twice...because I think we went back to Seattle for some unknown reason after that game)

2015 is the example you have to use when people say that Wilson cannot work within a rhythm offense or use the short/intermediate passing game effectively. So either something materially changed (if the separation is in the preparation...then did the preparation change?) or he was working within a framework that masked these supposed weaknesses. Or that never was the offense and I am just not remembering it right?

The only way forward given our roster is to find an approach that gets the ball out before pressure gets to us. That means replicating what we can from 2015 offense. So I thought a thread where people smarter and more knowledgeable than I am can share their thoughts on this might make sense.

Can Wilson do this again? Why or Why not?





* Not true. I just don't believe you give him a free pass or focus more on Wilson being great vs the team.

To quote the irrepressible Earth Wind and Fire "You won't find out if you never try". To me that'd the bigger hurdle than whether or not it would work. The will to try at all is the stumbling block.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Largent,

Ok but if the change in personnel is the culprit, how is calling longer developing pass plays instead the solution? Isn't that worse?

If you don't have the protection, then not having RBs to dump off to, sending all your WRs long, and barely using your TEs (who can shield off defenders with their body) seems like it makes it worse.

Also, your point seems to indicate this is not a limitation because of Wilson but because of the personnel around him.

We were just in the preseason, supposedly WR was a strength. But most of the WRs we were trying to stack up were guys like Marshall, big bodied guys we can send out that win the redline. We should have been looking for slant guys (though Moore could be that - not seeing him used that way).

You don't need much separation from the WRs on the short passes because the WR just needs to run to where the ball will be.

If this is the problem, then it isn't a weakness of Wilson and getting rid of him would make no sense. The better option would be getting quick, shifty slot guys we can make the short passes to. That does not seem to be a Marshall or Brown types of FAs we were clearly trying to sign.

I get you do the long passes to open up the middle, but that only works if you then throw over the middle.


Are you saying that no version of the 2015 offense can be implemented with this personnel group?

 

[Optimus25]

Whew had to go way back in the vault for this one. So here was my thread back right before the 2015 run.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=118257

You can tell i saw the future a little purely based on the shift in schedule. And that's the basis of my response here. 2015 was based largely on scheduling perfection if you're a Seahawks fan, and we executed accordingly. This is when the ravens were a laugher, , browns. Cards in disarray. Rams still locked us down during that stretch too, so there you go. We cannot physically scheme a solid game plan against a stout front. And obtw, Denver and Chicago, on the road, are no pushovers in the least. Let alone first game in thin air, followed by soldier field which has brought down aaron Rodgers too.

We had the worst possible 2 game stretch to open the season. I would have rather had the pats or falcons on the road. These teams were both in the mud for a long time and trying to come out, they are truly fighting for their lives while we seem to be playing in a daze constantly. Anyone who thinks this team is playing with the backs against the wall don't count us out mentality like the dawn of this era is delusional. I read a thousand of the threads pre season saying as much and first laughed then cried, because when you have top five players in the league on both sides of the ball, you're a moron for trying to take that mentality to the game. How about sound executing, solid game management, winning culture instead?.

But back to your point. I want the RO to come back, and heavily involve russ running and passing from it similar to the rpo style Nick foles used. Anytime russ burns someone for ten yards on a RO i really think it slows the rush a bit. Also i think we need deeper drops. Russ needs lots of space and when he can isolate from the defender in a wide open space, he annihilates them vs being penned in the pocket.

I also feel our empty set is more a liability than threat, and it sucks that we went from Graham to vannett essentially. Wow.

Just my opinion.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

We were just in the preseason, supposedly WR was a strength.

Where did you see or hear that?

Doug never even practiced, so anyone following the Hawks should have known WR was once again not going to be the strength of our offense.

And our FO knew it too, that's why we fired everyone, got two run game coordinators in Solari and Schottenheimer, and acquired/drafted players like Dissly (run blocking TE), Fluker (run grater), Ed Dickson (big experienced run blocking TE) and used our first round pick on a RB.

So if you're wondering why all the 5 and 7 step drops and passing 80% of the time? Beats the living hell out of me Husky, I have no idea why we're abandoning the run so quicky, when Carson's averaging 4 yards a carry, then he doesn't play the entire 2nd half?

Pete's lose his mind dude, idk what to tell you.......................other than you can't spend your ENTIRE off season getting back to the run, and then asking all these players to do things they're not very good at, nor have been preparing to do.

 

[mrt144]

Whew had to go way back in the vault for this one. So here was my thread back right before the 2015 run.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=118257

You can tell i saw the future a little purely based on the shift in schedule. And that's the basis of my response here. 2015 was based largely on scheduling perfection if you're a Seahawks fan, and we executed accordingly. This is when the ravens were a laugher, , browns. Cards in disarray. Rams still locked us down during that stretch too, so there you go. We cannot physically scheme a solid game plan against a stout front. And obtw, Denver and Chicago, on the road, are no pushovers in the least. Let alone first game in thin air, followed by soldier field which has brought down aaron Rodgers too.

We had the worst possible 2 game stretch to open the season. I would have rather had the pats or falcons on the road. These teams were both in the mud for a long time and trying to come out, they are truly fighting for their lives while we seem to be playing in a daze constantly. Anyone who thinks this team is playing with the backs against the wall don't count us out mentality like the dawn of this era is delusional. I read a thousand of the threads pre season and first laughed then cried, because when you have top five players in the league on both sides of the ball, you're a moron for trying to take that mentality to the game. How about sound executing, solid game management, winning culture instead?.

But back to your point. I want the RO to come back, and heavily involve russ running and passing from it similar to the rpo style Nick foles used. Anytime russ burns someone for ten yards on a RO i really think it slows the rush a bit. Also i think we need deeper drops. Russ needs lots of space and when he can isolate from the defender in a wide open space, he annihilates them vs being penned in the pocket.

I also feel our empty set is more a liability than threat, and it sucks that we went from Graham to vannett essentially. Wow.

Just my opinion.

I would like deeper drops if the Hawks could actually execute a screen pass like I see so many other teams do. But they don't.

 

[rjdriver]

Our defense.

 

[xray]

Diminished skills at QB and poor coaching. There are many people who feel that Wilson is an elite QB. He is a good QB but flashes of greatness don't make him great;at least not to me. He was lucky at the beginning of his career to have the best defense and running game. That didn't last and he was exposed when that ended. His speed and agility have dropped off the last 2-3 years and that is his go to game. Expecting a 5'10" QB to stand tall in the pocket is fantasy. He has to break out just to see his targets. Without a good OL and very good running game he can't succeed. Many here keep posting all his past stats; but I say "what has he done lately". I don't care about 3 or 4 years ago and all the numbers blah blah blah. I've been a Hawk fan for 42 years. I want wins not useless stats. Remember "Winning isn't everything it's the ONLY thing".

 

[Mad Dog]

Remember "Winning isn't everything it's the ONLY thing".

Even Vince Lombardi stated that was the quote he is least proud of and wish he'd never said. It sets impossible expectations and erases so much potential for enjoyment in life from lesser accomplishments. Not a quote to live by at all.

Winning is the cherry on top. It is not the only goal.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Diminished skills at QB and poor coaching. There are many people who feel that Wilson is an elite QB. He is a good QB but flashes of greatness don't make him great;at least not to me. He was lucky at the beginning of his career to have the best defense and running game. That didn't last and he was exposed when that ended. His speed and agility have dropped off the last 2-3 years and that is his go to game. Expecting a 5'10" QB to stand tall in the pocket is fantasy. He has to break out just to see his targets. Without a good OL and very good running game he can't succeed. Many here keep posting all his past stats; but I say "what has he done lately". I don't care about 3 or 4 years ago and all the numbers blah blah blah. I've been a Hawk fan for 42 years. I want wins not useless stats. Remember "Winning isn't everything it's the ONLY thing".

I agree that Russell's quickness has slowed a little, but all stats show that he can throw well from the pocket.

The issue is there's rarely a clean pocket.

What's the fix? RUN.............................THE..............................DAMN..........................BALL.

 

[mrt144]

Diminished skills at QB and poor coaching. There are many people who feel that Wilson is an elite QB. He is a good QB but flashes of greatness don't make him great;at least not to me. He was lucky at the beginning of his career to have the best defense and running game. That didn't last and he was exposed when that ended. His speed and agility have dropped off the last 2-3 years and that is his go to game. Expecting a 5'10" QB to stand tall in the pocket is fantasy. He has to break out just to see his targets. Without a good OL and very good running game he can't succeed. Many here keep posting all his past stats; but I say "what has he done lately". I don't care about 3 or 4 years ago and all the numbers blah blah blah. I've been a Hawk fan for 42 years. I want wins not useless stats. Remember "Winning isn't everything it's the ONLY thing".

He was actually an integral part of that running game though. It's not like he was passively handing the ball off and letting Lynch do Lynch things exclusively. He was there, running himself, making himself an 'option'. And while the value of the RO diminished because defenses actually started getting a handle on it, which you would kind of expect them to do, the RO evaporated almost completely after 2015, and yes the first game injury to RW in 2016 probably spelled the end of it as part of the repertoire.

And it's sad that you can diagnose that RW can't succeed without X and Y but seemingly the makeup of the team went the opposite of X and Y. Maybe the coaching staff has misplaced faith in RW to succeed but by your own belief in what helps RW, they did the opposite to support him, either purposefully or through just being poor at talent evaluation in OL and RB.

 

[Scorpion05]

The narrative of a “Quick Passing game” is often lazy thinking. And I don’t mean that specific to this thread. What I mean is that in order to have a “quick passing game” you still need respectable protection up front. The Packers vs the Bears..guess what? They could hold their own against Mack & company. Every elite QB has strong protection

A strong pass rush can obviously harass any O-line. But when your O-line is weak, defenses can plan to jump your routes, press man coverage..because on every snap you’re toast under 3.5 seconds. A defense needs to be able to respect your protection enough to know they can’t assume, press, and jump routes.

In 2015, in the second half the O-line was VERY respectable. The quick passing game at times worked because we could keep defenses honest. For a quick passing game to work, the O-line protection should be good enough to cleanly take deep shots. Watch a Tom Brady game and you’ll see what I’m talking about. He gets the ball out quick, but he has the OPTION to throw it deep. Both frustrate a defense, keeping them honest. :stirthepot:

We’re asking Russ to do too much with what we’ve given him. The moment we decided to pay Wilson, we should have added a strong O-line and weapons. People talk about McVay, Peterson, and McNagy. But they all went out of their way to invest in their QB. McVay’s first move was to get Whitworth. His scheme doesn’t work without RESPECTABLE protection

 

[TwistedHusky]

True, but that is why you have the long routes. They open up the middle for those passes.

Back in 2015, we had plenty of long passes, many for over 40. Generally, those were PA passes, so without a run game we lose those. But we are taking long shots now, which require protection - even more protection than the kind you are stating we would require for the shorter passes.

Regardless, we bring up 2015 because this is an example of when Wilson was doing this. The myth started to be that Wilson CAN'T do these kinds of passes well and 2015 seemed to indicate he could. Now, the consensus is that the reason we cannot do this now is less because of Wilson and more because of either:

1 . OL talent
2 . WR that get separation

Either way, those do not appear to be limitations on Wilson. So it is starting to look like the personnel creating the team we have built this team to be - is not conducive to Wilson's success. Which leads me to wonder who or what they are building around if we aren't building around the defense or the QB. ???

Obviously, the playcalling changed with the new OC but I don't know that I agree that the success was a statistical anomaly based on the scheduling as Optimus suggests. We scored points in bunches on some decent defenses, the Ravens and the Steelers were not amazing but not terrible and we put up near 30.

That was the year Wilson had his big shootout with Ben that we won. It wasn't just the sisters of the poor or paper-thin defenses he was raking.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

True, but that is why you have the long routes. They open up the middle for those passes.

Back in 2015, we had plenty of long passes, many for over 40. Generally, those were PA passes, so without a run game we lose those. But we are taking long shots now, which require protection - even more protection than the kind you are stating we would require for the shorter passes.

Regardless, we bring up 2015 because this is an example of when Wilson was doing this. The myth started to be that Wilson CAN'T do these kinds of passes well and 2015 seemed to indicate he could. Now, the consensus is that the reason we cannot do this now is less because of Wilson and more because of either:

1 . OL talent
2 . WR that get separation

Either way, those do not appear to be limitations on Wilson. So it is starting to look like the personnel creating the team we have built this team to be - is not conducive to Wilson's success. Which leads me to wonder who or what they are building around if we aren't building around the defense or the QB. ???

Obviously, the playcalling changed with the new OC but I don't know that I agree that the success was a statistical anomaly based on the scheduling as Optimus suggests. We scored points in bunches on some decent defenses, the Ravens and the Steelers were not amazing but not terrible and we put up near 30.

That was the year Wilson had his big shootout with Ben that we won. It wasn't just the sisters of the poor or paper-thin defenses he was raking.

I listed above what our FO's intention was with what we're building around...........the run game. Every offensive coach, draft pick and player acquisition was to build a run game.

So what's changed? Pete's insanity, impatience, disregard, or all of the above in abandoning the run game early in both games so far.

Offensive scheming and personnel moves is not something you fix on the fly once the season starts. It takes an entire off season of installing the scheme/playbook AND acquiring the right players to run your offense.

So why the hell we're throwing it 80% of the time watching Russell get sacked over over is beyond me.

 

[adeltaY]

Kearse, Baldwin, and Rookie Lockett were way better than what we have now. Baldwin and Lockett were great at creating separation (Baldwin elite at this) and Lockett had burner speed. Kearse didn't get much separation, but Russ trusted the heck out of him. Trust is the big difference. Wilson Trusts Marshall, maybe Lockett, but not really anyone else. You have to have that trust to get the ball out quickly before a receiver is open.

Combine that with playing bad/injured defenses and we went on a historic offensive run. Also our OL was NOT good that year. Got demolished against remotely respectable DL.

 

[Sgt Largent]

...Back in 2015, we had plenty of long passes, many for over 40. Generally, those were PA passes, so without a run game we lose those. But we are taking long shots now, which require protection - even more protection than the kind you are stating we would require for the shorter passes...

So you are asking why we are trying to throw deep which requires more protection, instead of a quicker pass game?

So, nevermind the run game, because right now, it's inexplicable what is happening, from play design, commitment to, and personnel use.

Defenses have to accept a vulnerability no matter what they do. If you play tight press, you are exposing yourself to deep shots and a big play run game at times, because the DBs have so much focus directed towards their man they can be late to respond to run support. If you play soft zone, you can be more reactionary to the run, but risk a precision attack nickle and diming you. There are a myriad ways to line up, and all of them have particular strengths and weaknesses.

Now, you are a DC playing the Hawks. They have shown that they have been unwilling/unable to run the ball. They have also shown an inability to even adequately pass block decent defensive fronts, which mean time to hurry/hit/sack Wilson is very low. Now, Run Game and Deep Shots are acknowledged Press Man vulnerabilities. Since Seattle is poor at taking advantage in either of those scenarios, why do anything else?

To get a defense to stop doing what they are doing, you have to hurt them by exploiting one of the weakness they have chosen to expose. In order to throw short, you must hurt them with the run or deep ball to get them to adjust. So far, our weaknesses have been greater than our opponents weaknesses, pure and simple.

PS It is more nuanced and complicated than this. You could also make great use of rub routes and the screen game for example. Oh hell, two more things we don't coach/suck at......

 

[TwistedHusky]

Technically I am asking what factors are preventing us from running an offense like 2015, or if Wilson can repeat something similar.

I was saying we do the long passes anyway, so it makes no sense to say we cannot do short to med range quick passes because we cannot protect when a good % of our offensive attempts are long passes that require more protection.

Say we admit the look is that we chose to build the team around the run game, instead of the QB or defense.

And the run game is a key element that would allow us to flourish with the midrange to short passing (which I think is the opposite - if you don't bother using the middle of the field the defense can move almost everything near the LOS and just keep the safeties deep for the deep shots. That would make running the ball much more difficult. So balancing run and short pass seems more reasonable given the personnel we have.)

It still seems to argue that run and short passing makes more sense than the current approach and nothing about the difference between now and 2015 seems to indicate this is not possible because of some inherent flaw in Wilson's game.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Every elite QB has strong protection

And here we see the old myth come out again.

There's been no correlation between OL strength and deep playoff runs. Aaron Rodgers has been one of the most-sacked QB's at times during his career. Ben Roethlisberger has had terrible protection at times. Cards, same thing when they went a few years ago. Same with the 2013-2014 Seahawks, whom NOBODY on this board thought had a good OL at the time. Nobody.

Tony Romo, on the other hand, had terrific protection over the years. If the quoted statement were true, he should have won the Cowboys a half dozen Super Bowls. He came close once.

QB play and scheme play just as much a role in keeping QB's upright as OL's do. That's especially been true in the last 15 years as spread concepts and up-tempo work have worked their way up from college offenses. If you do have a good OL, that's awesome, and it'll give you some options. But a good OL does not mask a QB's issues.

 

[Sgt Largent]

Every elite QB has strong protection

And here we see the old myth come out again.

There's been no correlation between OL strength and deep playoff runs. Aaron Rodgers has been one of the most-sacked QB's at times during his career. Ben Roethlisberger has had terrible protection at times. Cards, same thing when they went a few years ago. Same with the 2013-2014 Seahawks, whom NOBODY on this board thought had a good OL at the time. Nobody.

Tony Romo, on the other hand, had terrific protection over the years. If the quoted statement were true, he should have won the Cowboys a half dozen Super Bowls. He came close once.

QB play and scheme play just as much a role in keeping QB's upright as OL's do. That's especially been true in the last 15 years as spread concepts and up-tempo work have worked their way up from college offenses. If you do have a good OL, that's awesome, and it'll give you some options. But a good OL does not mask a QB's issues.

I would contend you may not need good/great OL play. But 5 or 6 sacks by halftime? Give Wilson full credit for, hell, 30% to 40% of the sacks allowed if you want. 4+ sacks a game is not even adequate, nevermind good.

30ish sacks per season is usually middle of the road. We have a QB that plays a bit differently and takes more sacks. Usually comes in around 50ish (league leading or close to it) per season.

WE ARE ON PACE TO HIT THAT BY WEEK 9 :rumble: ukeface: