Here is why I am excited about the Mariners. Even with average luck, they are an 82 win team (Pecota projections). However, those projections assume guys like Ackley, Smoak, Paxton, Ramirez, etc will not be very good players this season. I know it's just been three games, but those four players all have the talent to be stars and so far this season they have looked like it. If Ackley and Smoak finish the year with something very good yet attainable like a 130 OPS+ and the pitchers continue to get results that match their stuff, that's going to tack on 10-12 wins over that 82 win projection. And that's not even counting Walker, who has it in him to be a 4 win pitcher over 5 months if he stays healthy.
There's going to be some regression from certain guys (Iwakuma probably won't have back to back career years). And we'll need Hart to hit roughly as well as Morales did last year, when he was the M's best pure hitter that season. Still, the Mariners underachieved by a whopping 7 wins last season (Pecota had them for 78, the M's won 71 instead) so there isn't a lot of area you look at for regression. Long story short, the over-achieve / under-achieve arrow is pointing way, way up for a team that it usually points down for. And this is for a projected 82 win team that only needed to over-achieve a moderate amount to contend seriously for the playoffs.
Statistical analysis aside, I just really like the way the players have looked. The Mariners have had a ton of good at bats, even willing to take strike three called if it means walking more on other opportunities. And the Mariners have drawn a lot of walks. They've forced pitch counts up, they've hit for a ton of power, they are hitting line drives and they are looking disciplined at the plate. Even a guy like Almonte who seems kinda off in some aspects of his game just has the nicest at bats. Almonte looks like the guy Chone Figgins should have been.
I think Paxton is very exciting, he can hit 97 MPH as a starting pitcher and has a very effective changeup. His last four major league starts have been sensational. Ramirez is a guy smart baseball analysts love but struggled through injuries last year. When healthy though, he has the stuff of an upper end #2 pitcher. And he's a guy that could be our #5 pitcher a month from now when Walker and 'Kuma come back.
I know it's just 3 games, but the Mariners look TALENTED as hell all of a sudden. The lineup lacks an easy out, our rotation has a real chance to be the best in baseball (it is already without a doubt the most talented, barring injury Seattle's rotation is a very good bet to lead the AL in strikeouts), really my only worry is injuries and defense.
Granted, the blowout wins had a little bit of luck involved (insane efficiency with two outs), but the talent is self evident. Seattle could probably contend for the playoffs with two "pleasant surprises" from the young guys. And the way this season has started, it looks like getting at least two of them shouldn't be too hard.