ME3 to start!

[Ozzy]

I didn't say he could "only throw 50/50 balls." I said whether he looks good depends on the outcome of those 50/50 balls.

Ok well I disagree with that statement and I watched the whole game last night. He did a ton of good stuff after a rusty start. I’ll ask you the same question, what was prime Russ?

 

[knownone]

Ok well I disagree with that statement and I watched the whole game last night. He did a ton of good stuff after a rusty start. I’ll ask you the same question, what was prime Russ?

The whole game?

I answered your question about Prime Russ in the above reply.

 

[Ozzy]

The whole game?

I answered your question about Prime Russ in the above reply.

Yeah well I might’ve missed a play or two but he played a gutsy and good game. Made some big time throws in critical moments and did what he needed to do. 3 touchdowns a win, no picks and deserves some credit for his first game of the year.

 

[rcaido]

Wilson has the second best TD to INT ratio in NFL history. Now people are revising that he gets bailed out in those 50/50 throws? Wilson must be the most luckiest QB in football for 12 seasons.

 

[knownone]

Yeah well I might’ve missed a play or two but he played a gutsy and good game. Made some big time throws in critical moments and did what he needed to do. 3 touchdowns a win, no picks and deserves some credit for his first game of the year.

Is anyone taking credit away from him? We're mostly talking about whether he actually had a "great game" and, by extension, whether that success is sustainable. The advanced metrics would indicate that it is not. Maybe it is rust. Maybe it is Russ. We'll find out.

 

[Ozzy]

It won’t matter how he plays. Someone will still find a way to diminish it and say he’s a bad QB as we’ve seen every time this topic comes up.

 

[IndyHawk]

So let’s make it easy. What was he then during his prime with Seattle? A guy who like knownone says could only throw 50/50 balls? Do you think Prime Russ was average? great? Not snarky genuinely curious

With a D, RB and legs to improv besides the moonball that was better then?
He was good with all that sure, but it wasn't just all himself like his Team3 tried
to portray it.
He sure had a lot of luck too and still does - "Just chuck it with some luck".

 

[Spin Doctor]

Wilson has the second best TD to INT ratio in NFL history. Now people are revising that he gets bailed out in those 50/50 throws? Wilson must be the most luckiest QB in football for 12 seasons.

If anything, Wilson looked hesitant to throw those 50/50 balls to his receivers compared to his colleagues.

 

[HawkFreak]

Wilson had a good, solid game. He's always been great at lofting / arcing / placing the ball so that the receivers have a good chance to make a play on the ball - 50/50 balls included.

That being said - no one can deny that the Steelers WRs / TEs made some pretty amazing effort catches on those 50/50s and balls that were slightly out of reach. Especially Pickens who had at least 2 unbelievable catches that he bobbled/batted around before catching.

 

[Aircrew]

^^^^This^^^^

Give it a few games for defenses to have some tape on this Steeler offense and then we'll see. Russ had a solid game, but it's just one game.

 

[Palmegranite]

My guess is that the Steelers defence had some tape on Aaron Rodgers. They kept showing up wherever he threw the ball.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Russ was never good outside the fourth quarter. That was a pattern going back all the way to college.

 

[Palmegranite]

Pete told the team, "don't waste your time trying to win the game in the first quarter, even the second quarter, and for that matter the third quarter."

So yeah, he was good in the fourth.

 

[DarkVictory23]

His stats last year were much better than I bet many in here would realize. Now it’s not all about stats but his advanced metrics were pretty good too.

His advanced metrics were not good last year and that's because Russ wasn't good last year.

He had good stats, but that was specifically because of the way he played. Russ was one of the top 3 guys in deep pass percentage but just outside the bottom 10 in average depth of target. You have to be a giant checkdown merchant to get those numbers and that's what he was.

This is why his TD/INT ratio was so good which inflated his Passer Rating. He basically didn't challenge the middle of the field at all. Not just like the 'dead center', I mean he was either passing at the LOS or chucking it deep down field.

That's not a sustainable level of play because it relies so heavily on your WRs to either get a ridiculous amount of YAC or to beat the defense one-on-one repeatedly for those 50/50 deep balls and that's what Sean Payton saw. (And the results showed. Denver had a subpar offense, both at generating points and at sustaining drives.)

This idea that Payton chucked Russ after Russ was a great QB out of some vendetta is bonkers. Payton knew Russ wasn't good at leading an offense and Russ was old. Is Nix better? Not right now. But he's not old.

I think Russ looked good last night and I'll be honest... he did better than I expected. But Pickens looked amazing and there were a number of 50/50 balls that were flat-out not particularly good throws (and that's for any NFL QB, let alone for a guy who has historically had one of the best deep balls in NFL history) that got saved. I'm not sure I buy Pickens will be that amazing all season long, but I could definitely be wrong on that.

 

[Ozzy]

His advanced metrics were not good last year and that's because Russ wasn't good last year.

He had good stats, but that was specifically because of the way he played. Russ was one of the top 3 guys in deep pass percentage but just outside the bottom 10 in average depth of target. You have to be a giant checkdown merchant to get those numbers and that's what he was.

This is why his TD/INT ratio was so good which inflated his Passer Rating. He basically didn't challenge the middle of the field at all. Not just like the 'dead center', I mean he was either passing at the LOS or chucking it deep down field.

That's not a sustainable level of play because it relies so heavily on your WRs to either get a ridiculous amount of YAC or to beat the defense one-on-one repeatedly for those 50/50 deep balls and that's what Sean Payton saw. (And the results showed. Denver had a subpar offense, both at generating points and at sustaining drives.)

This idea that Payton chucked Russ after Russ was a great QB out of some vendetta is bonkers. Payton knew Russ wasn't good at leading an offense and Russ was old. Is Nix better? Not right now. But he's not old.

I think Russ looked good last night and I'll be honest... he did better than I expected. But Pickens looked amazing and there were a number of 50/50 balls that were flat-out not particularly good throws (and that's for any NFL QB, let alone for a guy who has historically had one of the best deep balls in NFL history) that got saved. I'm not sure I buy Pickens will be that amazing all season long, but I could definitely be wrong on that.

I disagree with a ton of this after I did a deep dive into the advanced metrics. People can cherry pick the stats to say what they want it to say. I can share a ton that put him in a much better light than the 5-6 you can pick (and vice versa to be fair). I also think the “he only has the deep ball” and you can’t rely on that is wildly overstated but I’m so tired of this debate because people probably dislike Russ for reasons outside of football and it’s hard to reason with that. That may not be you but it’s almost always the case and I have no interest in it. Nothing personal or snarky here either.

I’ll just agree to disagree. I think Russ is uniquely criticized and underrated and you obviously disagree but I’m bowing out of this debate as it’s endless

 

[Ozzy]

With a D, RB and legs to improv besides the moonball that was better then?
He was good with all that sure, but it wasn't just all himself like his Team3 tried
to portray it.
He sure had a lot of luck too and still does - "Just chuck it with some luck".

But now you’ve moved the goal posts. I never said it was all him and neither has a single person in here. Again you don’t have his efficiency numbers solely throwing moon balls. How you guys miss this point is odd to me. How was his completion %, td/int, passer rating, two minute drive success, GWDs were you have to be ultra efficient and surgically move the ball down the field if he only throws 50/50 balls? That sounds ridiculous if you truly think on that point does it not?

Damn it I said I was out of this lol but I am after this one.

 

[DarkVictory23]

I disagree with a ton of this after I did a deep dive into the advanced metrics. People can cherry pick the stats to say what they want it to say. I can share a ton that put him in a much better light than the 5-6 you can pick (and vice versa to be fair). I also think the “he only has the deep ball” and you can’t rely on that is wildly overstated but I’m so tired of this debate because people probably dislike Russ for reasons outside of football and it’s hard to reason with that. That may not be you but it’s almost always the case and I have no interest in it. Nothing personal or snarky here either.

I’ll just agree to disagree. I think Russ is uniquely criticized and underrated and you obviously disagree but I’m bowing out of this debate as it’s endless

Outside of Passer Rating (which just barely qualifies as an advanced metric), there were NONE where Russ was good last year. Success Rate, EPA, ANY/A, QBR... so what advanced metric are you talking about?

It's a little disingenuous to toss out a 'cherry picking' accusation and a vague assertion that I don't like Russ for reasons outside of football but you yourself only reference a non-specific deep dive into unspecified advanced metrics.

I respect wanting to 'bow out' of the debate, but perhaps you could do so before casting aspersions about my post, rather than after?

 

[Ozzy]

Outside of Passer Rating (which just barely qualifies as an advanced metric), there were NONE where Russ was good last year. Success Rate, EPA, ANY/A, QBR... so what advanced metric are you talking about?

It's a little disingenuous to toss out a 'cherry picking' accusation and a vague assertion that I don't like Russ for reasons outside of football but you yourself only reference a non-specific deep dive into unspecified advanced metrics.

I respect wanting to 'bow out' of the debate, but perhaps you could do so before casting aspersions about my post, rather than after?

I don’t mean to and even said it may not be you so apologies if it still came across that way.

I said anyone (including me right?) can cherry pick stats to say what we want them to say. Did you miss that part?

I’ve deep dived into the advanced metrics a million times on here so I’m just not interested in it. If you think Wilson survived throwing 50/50 deep balls and that’s it then we’re probably not going to get very far with each other because we are on polar ends of this debate. Every single time this debate pops up it gets personal and ruins future football discussions and I’m just not interested in it. I understand that is frustrating but hopefully you understand where I’m coming from at least a little bit.

 

[Fresno Hawk]

After watching that game. 1 thing it reminded me of is. How he won't have to do much with that defense the steelers have. The same way it was when he played with the LOB. They will get turnovers and give Russ a short field to score. They run the ball really well and Russ still has enough physical ability along with experience to make the steelers a real contender. It could end up working out for him this year.

 

[Scout]

Here is my take.

Wilson is with an OC that will stick to his strengths and Tomlin is a HC that is okay with some sandlot football to move the chains if he protects the ball and flips field position. That defense is what is driving that team so if they can keep them fresh that is all that matters.

Personally I think it was a solid showing for Wilson with some obvious rust. But I didn't see any new wrinkles to his game as he looks exactly like what we have always seen from him. Wilson played within the framework of Arthur Smith's offense and the Steelers were able to control the game. I think Smith is a fantastic play caller because he has worked with QBs with lesser talent than he has with Fields or Wilson this season. So for him this must be a huge upgrade for him as an OC to have Fields or Wilson at QB.