No. Scouts care about where you are now in your career, not how you were years ago.
Sam Howell is Geno's Backup!!
- Thread starter CactusJack
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Maelstrom787
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If you're actually going to imply that Seattle didn't have an excellent record of quarterback development under Carroll, I don't even know what to say. That's just straight up wrong lol
John is a Thompson-disciple. He understands the value of development time for young quarterbacks. I mean our way, regardless of how good Carroll was at coaching to make the quarterbacks job easier.
Actually, I would think they would look farther back than one year at least to see how the player progresses (or not). If he's making similar mistakes as he did 3 years ago, it shows he's not progressing.
RiverDog
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I dunno. There's a lot of teams that have traded up in the first round that busted and not very many that have succeeded.
Going back nearly 50 years, there have been 29 times when a team traded up in the first round to select a quarterback, and only a small percentage were successful. The Bills and Josh Allen, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, and the Ravens with Lamar Jackson are at the top of the list. The Ravens traded up for Joe Flacco and won a SB, so you gotta count that one as a win. The Falcons traded up for Michael Vick? I guess they went to the playoffs once. The jury is still out on the Packers and Jordan Love. The Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz and he was an MVP candidate until he got injured. The Texans traded up for Deshawn Watson and never won anything, but they got a gold mine for him in return, and the Rams traded Goff to the Lions and won a Lombardi with his replacement. The former Redskins traded up to get RG3 and his career ended early due to injury.
But from there, the list gets pretty miserable. The Niners sold the farm to draft Trey Lance, the Bears traded up to pick Mitch Turdisky, the Cards traded up to draft Josh Rosen, the Jets traded up to draft Sam Darnold, the Broncos traded up to draft Paxton Lynch, the Browns trade up to draft Johnny Manziel, the Vikings traded up for Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos traded up for Tim Tebow, the Jags and Blaine Gabbert, the Jets and Mark Sanchez, the Bucs and Josh Freeman, the Browns traded up for Brady Quinn, the Broncos traded up for Jay Cutler, the then Redskins traded up for Jason Campbell, the Bills traded up for J.P. Losman, the Ravens traded up for Kyle Boller, the Chargers traded up for Ryan Leaf, the Colts traded up for Jeff George, and finally, way back in the 70's, the Chiefs traded up for someone known as Steve Fuller and the Falcons traded up for Steve Bartkowski.
Bottom line is that in the 29 times teams traded up in the first round for a quarterback, there were 3 clear winners (Mahomes, Allen, and Flacco), 5 that were kinda-sorta (Goff, Watson, RG3, Vick, and Wentz), one undecided (Love), and 20 that were disappointments if not flat-out busts. Those aren't very good odds.
The moral of the story is that if going to trade up in the first to pick a quarterback, you'd better be God damned sure he's your man. I say we sit at #16 and take the BPA or trade back.
All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback
From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.
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Drafting a QB is a gamble. Any round. Any year. But you still have to do it. If not this year, then next year. Do you expect to be drafting HIGHER than #9 next year?I dunno. There's a lot of teams that have traded up in the first round that busted and not very many that have succeeded.
Going back nearly 50 years, there have been 29 times when a team traded up in the first round to select a quarterback, and only a small percentage were successful. The Bills and Josh Allen, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, and the Ravens with Lamar Jackson are at the top of the list. The Ravens traded up for Joe Flacco and won a SB, so you gotta count that one as a win. The Falcons traded up for Michael Vick? I guess they went to the playoffs once. The jury is still out on the Packers and Jordan Love. The Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz and he was an MVP candidate until he got injured. The Texans traded up for Deshawn Watson and never won anything, but they got a gold mine for him in return, and the Rams traded Goff to the Lions and won a Lombardi with his replacement. The former Redskins traded up to get RG3 and his career ended early due to injury.
But from there, the list gets pretty miserable. The Niners sold the farm to draft Trey Lance, the Bears traded up to pick Mitch Turdisky, the Cards traded up to draft Josh Rosen, the Jets traded up to draft Sam Darnold, the Broncos traded up to draft Paxton Lynch, the Browns trade up to draft Johnny Manziel, the Vikings traded up for Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos traded up for Tim Tebow, the Jags and Blaine Gabbert, the Jets and Mark Sanchez, the Bucs and Josh Freeman, the Browns traded up for Brady Quinn, the Broncos traded up for Jay Cutler, the then Redskins traded up for Jason Campbell, the Bills traded up for J.P. Losman, the Ravens traded up for Kyle Boller, the Chargers traded up for Ryan Leaf, the Colts traded up for Jeff George, and finally, way back in the 70's, the Chiefs traded up for someone known as Steve Fuller and the Falcons traded up for Steve Bartkowski.
Bottom line is that in the 29 times teams traded up in the first round for a quarterback, there were 3 clear winners (Mahomes, Allen, and Flacco), 5 that were kinda-sorta (Goff, Watson, RG3, Vick, and Wentz), one undecided (Love), and 20 that were disappointments if not flat-out busts. Those aren't very good odds.
The moral of the story is that if going to trade up in the first to pick a quarterback, you'd better be God damned sure he's your man. I say we sit at #16 and take the BPA or trade back.
All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback
From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.www.espn.com
RiverDog
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The question isn't if we draft a QB or not. The question is do we trade up to get one, and the very fact of what you said in your first sentence, that it's a gamble, suggests that we minimize our risk the best we can.
Like I said, if we're going to trade up in the first round, which is generally extremely expensive especially when you're talking about trading into the top ten, we'd better make damn sure he's our man.
If JS sees a QB he likes badly enough to trade up for him, then I'm all for it. Not only does Schneider have a very good eye for quarterbacks, he's generally reluctant to trade up, so he would have to be very, very confident of a quarterback if he's going to take that big of a gamble on him.
The other thing is that I don't want to do is blindly trading into the #9 overall by trading before the draft. If we have that one quarterback that is "our man", then we wait until after pick #8 to pull the trigger on a trade. It's too damn expensive not to get the player we're targeting.
DarkVictory23
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We're not drafting #9 this year anyway. That only exists in the world where we are giving a bunch to Chicago to get their draft pick. Theoretically, we can mortgage our future to get #9 or better basically every single year.
And no, you don't 'have' to draft a QB. We don't know how Macdonald and Schneider feel about Howell after this coming season. I think he's just insurance if nobody we like is available in the draft but he could also be Schneider's post-Geno plan going forward. It's impossible to say for sure.
Our best QB ever was drafted, sure... in the 3rd round. Our next best QB was Hasselbeck and we acquired him the same way we just got Howell. You should always be willing to consider drafting a QB and if you follow BPA, occasionally, the BPA might be a QB. But that seems like a long shot this year. It doesn't matter if we're drafting #16 or give up a bunch of capital for #9, the odds that we're getting anything better than the 4th or 5th best QB this year is pretty darn low.
That's not exactly a genius draft strategy, especially if you like your current QB room.
Maulbert
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Of course he wants the Hawks to trade with the Bears. He's a Bears fan.
Well, that’s fine if you’re sold on Howell. So or else your plan to replace Geno next year is to get lucky and find QB1 in a trade or drafting again in the middle (or lower) in the first round or later. I don’t like those odds.
All I want for #9 is second round pick in 2025 and #16. That’s not mortgaging future. It’s getting a top-5 QB prospect in a good year to get a QB.
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DarkVictory23
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But your plan is to just trade with the Bears for #9 this year. We don't have that pick. Why are we comparing a draft pick we already don't have to any future draft pick that we don't have?
You can mortgage the farm any year you want. We don't have to draft middle round or lower next year. We could easily trade for a top 10 pick next year if we want to give up the capital. I get it, as a Bears fan, you want that excess draft capital to go to Chicago but as a fan of the Seahawks, I don't care (and neither does the Seahawks front office) about that capital going to the Bears.
Additionally, with the number of QB desperate teams at the top, we don't appreciably improve the odds this year by going up from #16 to #9. We'll go from being able to possibly draft the 4th-6th best QB in this draft class to being able to possibly draft the 4th-6th best QB in this draft class.
If we want to draft a top QB, any trade that's not targeting getting into the top 6 isn't really worth considering and, frankly, I find the idea of trading up just to get the 4th (or worse) best QB kind of nuts.
Hawkinaz
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I am pretty sure the intention of trading for Howell was to transition him to the starter especially with how both JS and MM have been towards Geno when asked in the media. Howell will have 2 years to show if he is up to the task
Seahawks don’t have a 2nd rd pick to waste trading up, if there is a team that wants to trade to 16 I bet JS will trade back
After Williams, Daniels and Maye none of the other QBs are worthy of a top 25 pick
Despite TONS of historical evidence, people think they can accurately predict that Williams, Maye, Daniels will ALL have more successful NFL careers than Nix, McCarthy, and Penix. The data shows that 50% of QBs drafted in first round ever win a playoff game or get an extension from the team that drafted them. You just cannot predict the QB position with much accuracy. Anybody can be wrong, but I believe McCarthy and Nix will go in the first round— at least one of them.
Yeah, if you don’t care whether you get #4,5, or 6, then just sit at #16 and take whatever falls to you. But if you want your #4, you guarantee getting it by trading up to #9, instead of watching him go to the Broncos at #12. I assure you I am saying this as a Seahawks fan and see it as a win-win deal.
Edit: I just read that Vikings will take McCarthy at #11.
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Double Tribble
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The hit rate for qb's in the top 12 picks is about 50%. After that, it falls off a cliff.I dunno. There's a lot of teams that have traded up in the first round that busted and not very many that have succeeded.
Going back nearly 50 years, there have been 29 times when a team traded up in the first round to select a quarterback, and only a small percentage were successful. The Bills and Josh Allen, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, and the Ravens with Lamar Jackson are at the top of the list. The Ravens traded up for Joe Flacco and won a SB, so you gotta count that one as a win. The Falcons traded up for Michael Vick? I guess they went to the playoffs once. The jury is still out on the Packers and Jordan Love. The Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz and he was an MVP candidate until he got injured. The Texans traded up for Deshawn Watson and never won anything, but they got a gold mine for him in return, and the Rams traded Goff to the Lions and won a Lombardi with his replacement. The former Redskins traded up to get RG3 and his career ended early due to injury.
But from there, the list gets pretty miserable. The Niners sold the farm to draft Trey Lance, the Bears traded up to pick Mitch Turdisky, the Cards traded up to draft Josh Rosen, the Jets traded up to draft Sam Darnold, the Broncos traded up to draft Paxton Lynch, the Browns trade up to draft Johnny Manziel, the Vikings traded up for Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos traded up for Tim Tebow, the Jags and Blaine Gabbert, the Jets and Mark Sanchez, the Bucs and Josh Freeman, the Browns traded up for Brady Quinn, the Broncos traded up for Jay Cutler, the then Redskins traded up for Jason Campbell, the Bills traded up for J.P. Losman, the Ravens traded up for Kyle Boller, the Chargers traded up for Ryan Leaf, the Colts traded up for Jeff George, and finally, way back in the 70's, the Chiefs traded up for someone known as Steve Fuller and the Falcons traded up for Steve Bartkowski.
Bottom line is that in the 29 times teams traded up in the first round for a quarterback, there were 3 clear winners (Mahomes, Allen, and Flacco), 5 that were kinda-sorta (Goff, Watson, RG3, Vick, and Wentz), one undecided (Love), and 20 that were disappointments if not flat-out busts. Those aren't very good odds.
The moral of the story is that if going to trade up in the first to pick a quarterback, you'd better be God damned sure he's your man. I say we sit at #16 and take the BPA or trade back.
All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback
From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.
flv2
Well-known member
I'm sure the data is accurate but I think you're using the wrong metric as a measuring stick and you might be drawing the wrong conclusion because of it. Win-loss % on trades is irrelevant. If you wagered $10 on 29 bets where 5 bets won and total returns were $400 then the 5-24 record wouldn't be the best measuring stick. Qualitative analysis of picking QBs is beyond the best of current think-tanks. The reward part of the QB risk-reward analysis is so much higher for QB that they will normally be over-drafted. That's likely true whether you trade up for a specific QB or take the best QB available when you pick. Trading for proven QBs or overpaying FA QBs also seems to be a poor value proposition. Is trying to win without a QB any better? Again, i'm not saying your conclusion is wrong, but don't treat it as an absolute truth.I dunno. There's a lot of teams that have traded up in the first round that busted and not very many that have succeeded.
Going back nearly 50 years, there have been 29 times when a team traded up in the first round to select a quarterback, and only a small percentage were successful. The Bills and Josh Allen, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, and the Ravens with Lamar Jackson are at the top of the list. The Ravens traded up for Joe Flacco and won a SB, so you gotta count that one as a win. The Falcons traded up for Michael Vick? I guess they went to the playoffs once. The jury is still out on the Packers and Jordan Love. The Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz and he was an MVP candidate until he got injured. The Texans traded up for Deshawn Watson and never won anything, but they got a gold mine for him in return, and the Rams traded Goff to the Lions and won a Lombardi with his replacement. The former Redskins traded up to get RG3 and his career ended early due to injury.
But from there, the list gets pretty miserable. The Niners sold the farm to draft Trey Lance, the Bears traded up to pick Mitch Turdisky, the Cards traded up to draft Josh Rosen, the Jets traded up to draft Sam Darnold, the Broncos traded up to draft Paxton Lynch, the Browns trade up to draft Johnny Manziel, the Vikings traded up for Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos traded up for Tim Tebow, the Jags and Blaine Gabbert, the Jets and Mark Sanchez, the Bucs and Josh Freeman, the Browns traded up for Brady Quinn, the Broncos traded up for Jay Cutler, the then Redskins traded up for Jason Campbell, the Bills traded up for J.P. Losman, the Ravens traded up for Kyle Boller, the Chargers traded up for Ryan Leaf, the Colts traded up for Jeff George, and finally, way back in the 70's, the Chiefs traded up for someone known as Steve Fuller and the Falcons traded up for Steve Bartkowski.
Bottom line is that in the 29 times teams traded up in the first round for a quarterback, there were 3 clear winners (Mahomes, Allen, and Flacco), 5 that were kinda-sorta (Goff, Watson, RG3, Vick, and Wentz), one undecided (Love), and 20 that were disappointments if not flat-out busts. Those aren't very good odds.
The moral of the story is that if going to trade up in the first to pick a quarterback, you'd better be God damned sure he's your man. I say we sit at #16 and take the BPA or trade back.
All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback
From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.
DirectMessage
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It's just weird that Howell isn't getting the hype for the goldmine that he could be. Outside of JJ, there isn't anyone else that I would take higher, IMHO. Nix would be 3rd, but the dude is older and put a lot of miles on his body, tbh. Guy put up 4,000 yards with a garbage team and OC. Guy can take a hit. As long as Grubb calls fast plays that get delivered as he hits his 3rd step, he'll be fine. Fast slants, TE over the middle, receiving running backs, etc. Flood one area with multiple wr patterns to take the thinking out of it until Howell stops hearing footsteps. These long developing plays with this OL will stunt his growth.
Howell legitimately has a great shot to be our Mahomes...
Howell legitimately has a great shot to be our Mahomes...
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projectorfreak
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He could be a goldmine
Commies Oline was a dumpster fire , even we got pressure on em and howell was the only game they had , they couldn't run on US
How many teams couldn't run on us last year
He had a dysfunctional coaching staff probably worse than Me3's last year and only 1 real star receiver and had to spread the ball around with constant pressure , it's not like he held the ball way too long , he didn't have even decent protection , a coaching staff that I'm guessing wasn't all that supportive, A really crappy team environment
I am not sure even the best of the best of rookie QBs could've done anything other than sling it like he did
Weird how his rookie stats mirror Farve's
Just re watched the game from '23 and he looks legit
Commies Oline was a dumpster fire , even we got pressure on em and howell was the only game they had , they couldn't run on US
How many teams couldn't run on us last year
He had a dysfunctional coaching staff probably worse than Me3's last year and only 1 real star receiver and had to spread the ball around with constant pressure , it's not like he held the ball way too long , he didn't have even decent protection , a coaching staff that I'm guessing wasn't all that supportive, A really crappy team environment
I am not sure even the best of the best of rookie QBs could've done anything other than sling it like he did
Weird how his rookie stats mirror Farve's
Just re watched the game from '23 and he looks legit
DirectMessage
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Yup. I can't think of one QB that came out recently and took over the NFL day one and never let it go. They might have flashes their first season, then the NFL studies them and they fade.
projectorfreak
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The commies were one dimensional and a 1 dimensional team gets beat a lot , period
Howell is probably a happy camper to get out of there , although his receiver group was better than I gave them credit in another thread , the more I see of this kid the more i have hope
Imagine the giants or another screwed up from the top down team gets a number 1 pick , same story every year , gotta be the easiest way to get a good QB
get one from a dysfunctional franchise and let him grow , actually likin this trade more every game I watch
Howell is probably a happy camper to get out of there , although his receiver group was better than I gave them credit in another thread , the more I see of this kid the more i have hope
Imagine the giants or another screwed up from the top down team gets a number 1 pick , same story every year , gotta be the easiest way to get a good QB
get one from a dysfunctional franchise and let him grow , actually likin this trade more every game I watch
DirectMessage
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Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, & Zach Wilson say tell me about it.
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