NFC West analytics predictions

[FrodosFinger]

 

[MORGULON]

San Francisco 6.5 wins ?

 

[NoGain]

Yeah, I don't get that 9er thing. But ESPN had their first power rankings out a little while ago, and they had the Hawks ranked higher than the 9ers. I think they had the Hawks ranked tied for 6th in the entire NFL. The Hawks are starting to become a sleeper pick this year.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Yeah, I don't get that 9er thing. But ESPN had their first power rankings out a little while ago, and they had the Hawks ranked higher than the 9ers. I think they had the Hawks ranked tied for 6th in the entire NFL. The Hawks are starting to become a sleeper pick this year.

Yeah I know but they are kind of on the down slope of their tight unrealistic Super Bowl window with an aging roster after 3 years of no high picks due to the Trey Lance debacle. Now they’re stuck paying a 3rd string quarterback the same as what Geno Smith makes. We’re going to start seeing the losing effects that no high draft capital brings. If they lose either CMC or Bosa they’re a 4 win team. The Hawks have a better roster with more talent at receiver and the secondary as well as a better gunslinger. The analytics also take into the amount of high quality they lost this year to free agency. Seattle on the other hand is absolutely loaded

 

[FrodosFinger]

49er fan’s reaction to the analytics chart while trying to shake the familiar feeling of dead last

 

[HawkRiderFan]

ok it's one thing to pick the Hawks to win. I can't trust anything that puts the Niners behind the Cards and Rams, as much as I would enjoy it

 

[Maulbert]

No way the Rams and Cardinals finish ahead of the 49ers.

 

[FrodosFinger]

No way the Rams and Cardinals finish ahead of the 49ers.

Hmmm. I don’t know bro their options at quarterback are 3 lower echelon quarterbacks. Purdy looked good and Darnold has some experience but let’s not act like either one can carry an offense and stinky Trey Lance is obviously a bust and third string/scout team QB. Lance will be out of the league in a year’s time

 

[Maulbert]

Hmmm. I don’t know bro their options at quarterback are 3 lower echelon quarterbacks. Purdy looked good and Darnold has some experience but let’s not act like either one can carry an offense and stinky Trey Lance is obviously a bust and third string/scout team QB. Lance will be out of the league in a year’s time

You have such a hate-on for the 49ers you can't see past a backup QB that won't see significant playtime barring injury. They had a top 10 offense with nobody at QB last season. They still have Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, McCaffrey, and the #1 defense in the NFL. While I don't think they'll be as good this year, they would need catastrophic injuries to lose more than 8 games. The Rams will be lucky to be above .500. The Cards are worse than the gum on the bottom of my shoe. The 49ers won't be worse than 2nd. I guarantee it.

 

[m0ng0]

I would take that bet right now, SF wins more than 6.5 games

 

[FrodosFinger]

You have such a hate-on for the 49ers you can't see past a backup QB that won't see significant playtime barring injury. They had a top 10 offense with nobody at QB last season. They still have Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, McCaffrey, and the #1 defense in the NFL. While I don't think they'll be as good this year, they would need catastrophic injuries to lose more than 8 games. The Rams will be lucky to be above .500. The Cards are worse than the gum on the bottom of my shoe. The 49ers won't be worse than 2nd. I guarantee it.

I mean I get all that but I doubt they do as well as last year. I’d bet my left nutt on it. It’s hard to maintain a healthy roster with their student body veer offense. Plus they lost a boatload of key players this offseason. I sniff 6 wins and 11 losses for them guy

 

[AROS]

6.5 wins for the 9ers is just silly.

Seahawks winning the division isn't silly at all. I could totally see it happening but it will come down to the final two weeks of the season and the Seahawks would barely edge the 9ers, not have a 4 game spread. That's just laughable (injuries aside).

 

[AROS]

My prediction:

Seahawks 11-6
49ers 10-7
Rams 9-8
Cardinals 6-11

 

[Maulbert]

I mean I get all that but I doubt they do as well as last year. I’d bet my left nutt on it. It’s hard to maintain a healthy roster with their student body veer offense. Plus they lost a boatload of key players this offseason. I sniff 6 wins and 11 losses for them guy

I didn't say they'd do better than last year. Matter of fact, I said they'd be worse. But I still think they'll have a winning season. The Rams sold their future for a ring. The Cards are tanking. The 49ers will be better than both, because THEY ARE better than both. They'll win at least 4 games this year against the two of them.

 

[Lagartixa]

Yeah, projecting the Gold Diggers at 6.5 wins really hurts the credibility of this projection. Projecting the Rams for nine wins also seems a little odd, and I say that even though @Aros appears to agree with that part of the projection. Switching the "analytic" projections for the Rams and Gold Diggers might seem a little more sensible to me, but still not very good.

I expect the Rams to win seven or eight, the Seahawks to win ten or so, the Gold Diggers to win eleven or so, and the Cardinals to end up with the top two picks in the next draft. Here's hopin' they can be as effective with those picks as the Gruden/Mayock Raiders were with all their draft capital.

 

[bileever]

I don't know anything about this analytics outfit or what their approach is, but to me, what hurts their credibility is predicting that the Rams will have a winning season. The over/under in Vegas is 6.5 for the Rams right now.

I can see how you could get such wild results, though. Football doesn't lend itself to number crunching. There are way too many intangible and immeasurable factors that play a role in the outcome of a game.

 

[Marvin49]

I mean sometimes you just have to laugh. :-D

 

[94Smith]

I don't know anything about this analytics outfit or what their approach is, but to me, what hurts their credibility is predicting that the Rams will have a winning season. The over/under in Vegas is 6.5 for the Rams right now.

I can see how you could get such wild results, though. Football doesn't lend itself to number crunching. There are way too many intangible and immeasurable factors that play a role in the outcome of a game.

I could see the Rams having a winning season. Kupp, Higbee, Stafford and Aaron Donald are playing

 

[bileever]

I could see the Rams having a winning season. Kupp, Higbee, Stafford and Aaron Donald are playing

There's talent, but also a lot of holes, too. They've lost Jalen Ramsey, A'Shawn Robinson, Leonard Floyd, Greg Gaines, Taylor Rapp, and Bobby Wagner--just to name a few. They also lost their kicker, punter and long snapper. It was some astonishing number, maybe close to 20 players they lost to free agency. But on top of that, they didn't really sign anyone except a couple of marginal players. I know Sean McVay is good, but he isn't that good. And I think there's a good chance that Matthew Stafford at age 35 has had it. I think the earliest they can get out of his massive contract without a huge hit is 2026. Don't you agree? Surely agreeing that the Rams are toast is one thing we can all agree on?

 

[Jegpeg]

Football is unpredictable, and sometimes vegas and the analytics get it very wrong, (just at the predictions for our wins last season). Usually however there is a broad concensus among the predictions whether they are looking at tape or stats. There were people predicting we would have a winning season in 2022 but I am pretty sure those that did are no more accurate overall than everybody else.
I wouldn't rule out the 49ers getting 6 or 7 wins this year, but to expect it is crazy.
It would be interestin to see if any of these analytic systems could beat vegas in predicting results. I did have a google to try and find some analytic predictions for our win total last year I failed but I did find this amusing artical
"Bottom line Opinions are fun and can create interesting arguments, but when passion is removed and the numbers are all that remain, we can see the truth. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and second only to Mahomes in the AFC West."
https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/russell-wilson-top-5-elite-quarterback-analysis