Aros' Fearless Prediction Thread (Angry Birds @ Dirty Birds)

28-17 Seahawks. Bad run defense + Marshawn Lynch means 0-4 for the Falcons.

SeaTown81":3r1pz9uk said:

This is by no means an easy game. Anyone who thinks so is ignoring all factors. The Falcons a good team playing at home. A very good offense that has scored under 20 only 2 times all season. They will most likely score 25-30 pts. And the Hawks are going to have to score more if they want to win this thing. Fans predicting the Falcons being held to 15 or less pts are not being realistic.

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And we've got a very good defense that has allowed over 23 points only 2 times all season. So we are to automatically assume that the Falcons are going to exceed that? Do we assume that the Atlanta trend holds, or do we assume that the Seattle one does? Perhaps it's somewhere in the middle, where Atlanta scores around 21-24 points - more than we typically give up, but less than they typically score.

If you can buy that idea, then you have to ask yourself if you feel that the Seahawks offense can score more than that. I think they can.

volsunghawk":2iepmuud said:

And we've got a very good defense that has allowed over 23 points only 2 times all season. So we are to automatically assume that the Falcons are going to exceed that?

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Our defense hasn't faced a receiving corps like this. I frankly expect Browner to come out of this matchup looking like toast.

MontanaHawk05":3vu3ahm5 said:

volsunghawk":3vu3ahm5 said:

And we've got a very good defense that has allowed over 23 points only 2 times all season. So we are to automatically assume that the Falcons are going to exceed that?

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Our defense hasn't faced a receiving corps like this. I frankly expect Browner to come out of this matchup looking like toast.

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Their offense hasn't faced a secondary like this.

What I can't shake off is how easy it was for the Redskins to score 14 on us in the 1st quarter. The Falcons are a much different passing team then the Redskins; more proficient with a superior receiving corp. Help me get over my angst! Calling Dr Feelgood....

It will be quite insane if Atlanta scores more than their season average against the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. That's not a prediction, since it's based on no evidence. That's just a guess.

SeaTown81":2hu5jgyo said:

...
And we haven't even talked about the big scary elephant in the corner. This Atlanta team is basically us in 2005. A #1 seed that hasn't won anything before, being told by everyone in the country that they are going to choke. They have the ultimate "nobody believes in us!" card to play. You know the Falcons want nothing more than to prove everyone wrong, and to remove the choker label that has been placed on Matt Ryan and Mike Smith. These are the sort of factors that can lead a lesser team to a victory, let alone a team that went 13-3 that is playing at home where it plays very well.

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A lot of your "Atlanta is the Seahawks in 2005" points are on the money. I'm worried about some of those same things. Atlanta has a (passing) offense that can flat out move the ball and score on anyone. But they DO NOT have a big-time RUNNING GAME like the 2005 Seahawks had. I remember feeling sorry for the pathetic Carolina fans in 2005, who didn't see it coming that Seattle would bulldoze right over them with Shaun Alexander behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson.
For another analog, Denver with John Elway kept losing in the Super Bowl. Absolutely blown out by Washington. Then they played Holmgren's Packers and I knew the Broncos would win, because this time they had Terrell Davis and that big-time running game.

This year's Seahawks don't have quite the running game of the 2005 Seahawks--but wait, there's Russell Wilson and the read option! And a quarterback who can scramble and create! So really, we are on a par with the 2005 Seahawks, and in some ways better, on the offensive side of the ball, and with a better, deeper defense.

This year's Atlanta team is reminiscent of some of the Air Coryell San Diego Chargers teams, and Ryan is like a poor man's Dan Fouts, and Tony Gonzalez is a HOF tight end just like Kellen Winslow (Sr.) The Chargers made it to the Super Bowl *once* that I can recall out of those years, and that was just *after* the Air Coryell years.

Atlanta is also somewhat reminiscent of the Kurt-Warner-led St. Louis Rams teams, except with no Marshall Faulk. But remember how, in the NFC Championship game, the Rams barely got by Tampa Bay and their elite defense, in an offense-less slugfest? (a former Seahawk WR caught the game-winning TD from Warner) If Tampa Bay had a passable offense that season, they would have had another Super Bowl title.

Anyway, Seattle's D will do a better job of slowing down Atlanta's O than Atlanta's D will to with Seattle's O.

Some of you might be content with losing, but I'm not! I have to walk out of a stadium with either sad, angry, frustrated Atlanta fans or giddy, cocky, arrogant ones.... I want sad and angry!!!!

My extensive thoughts on the game can be found in my Seahawks-Falcons Preview Piece ... but I'm going out on a limb and saying the Hawks will pull this one out in a hard fought game ...

Seahawks 24
Falcons 21

[PS: If some of you haven't checked out that piece yet, I would encourage you to do so -- in particular to check out the Falcons Strength of Schedule I have posted there in the "Bold Prediction" section at the end. Might make some of you breathe a tiny bit easier.]

MontanaHawk05":2j9wsryh said:

volsunghawk":2j9wsryh said:

And we've got a very good defense that has allowed over 23 points only 2 times all season. So we are to automatically assume that the Falcons are going to exceed that?

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Our defense hasn't faced a receiving corps like this. I frankly expect Browner to come out of this matchup looking like toast.

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True. But that is a dangerous game for Atlanta too. Browner might get burned, and he might make a big play.

I was watching the post game show tonight and when Mack Strong mentioned the final score it suddenly dawned on me that my fearless prediction was off by just one point. This isn't meant to be any pat on the back, just that it struck me as weird to be that close with a weird score. 31-28. So much for my 53-17 dream the other night. (sigh)

So to make sure this post isn't a complete waste of time, please enjoy one of favorite YouTube videos...

[youtube]tRBDMMVctu8[/youtube]

Aros":2k1a11la said:

Yet, all this week, I've had a bad feeling that the Seahawks 2012 journey will come to and end in Atlanta. I've listened to those smarter than I am go over the matchups. There are valid points to be made by both sides why they think their team will win. For me, it comes down to a few factors. Losing Clemons is HUGE. Losing Hauschka could prove to be the difference. Hopefully not, but he could be. I think the Falcons are spittin' mad over all the talk how HOT the Seahawks are and all you hear about the NFC's #1 seed is how they have failed to advance in the playoffs their past 4 tries. Our corners are the perfect kryptonite to their big receivers, but it's not their receivers I'm concerned with. Gonzalez and anybody else Trufant and our LB's will have to cover.

I think Magic Russ will still be impressive. He will find his touchdowns, and run for chunks at a time, keeping the chains moving. I also expect Lynch to have another 100+ yard performance.

It will likely be a fun, high-scoring affair by both teams, and a really fun game for the country to watch.

I'm just afraid we will fall short this Sunday. If I'm wrong, there's no crow to eat. I won't be surprised if we win. It's just been one of those years, and the magic could continue onto the NFC Championship. I'm going to go with my gut this time and say the Seahawks put up another valiant effort but fall a bit short in the points department.


Aros' Fearless Prediction: Seahawks 28 - Falcons 31

Aros' Fearless Record: 12-5

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That's a damn impressive prediction.