NFL Future Power Rankings

Hawkfan77

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ESPN evaluated the core of every team as it projects to 2016. They used a scoring system (out of 100) that graded out: Roster, QB, Draft, Front Office and Coaching.

1. SF-87.50

2. GB-83.63

3. SEA-82.58

According to ESPN, SF will have a better roster than us, they do better at the draft than we do, they have a better FO and better coaches. They did however, grade out our QBs the same.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... 016-season
 

IBleedBlueAndGreen

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I have no problem with this. Things change so rapidly in the NFL that any team in the top eight or so has to feel really good about the future of their organization.
 

bestfightstory

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Haha-I was just looking at this. Kiper's comments on our draft style were interesting and fair.

He acknowledges our ability to get megastars (Sherman, Wilson) way down the draft board but questions our first round acuity (Carpenter, Irvin).
 

NinerBuff

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I thought it was interesting that the Redskins didn't make the top 10... I also think the Patriots long term viability is starting to wane.
 
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Hawkfan77

Hawkfan77

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The main issue I had with this was they gave SF an 8.8 for their drafting abilities all while giving us a 7.5...

Really though, they want to nitpick us for taking Carpenter but there is no mention of AJ Jenkins. I'm really having a hard time seeing how they are even remotely on the same level as us at drafting, let alone 1.3 points higher than us. Our team is FULL of players that this regime drafted, the niners? Not so much, they inherited more than quite a few talented players. Plus they received an 8.8 for their drafting abilities even though Kiper gave them an "incomplete" for their 2012 draft...just does not add up.

I know it doesn't matter, but still I find it odd.
 

Blitzhawk

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bestfightstory":2w8q7pkl said:
Haha-I was just looking at this. Kiper's comments on our draft style were interesting and fair.

He acknowledges our ability to get megastars (Sherman, Wilson) way down the draft board but questions our first round acuity (Carpenter, Irvin).

Of course when you factor in us picking arguably the best FS in the league + one of the best LT's in the league + trading this years first for one of the most explosive WR's in the league, this starts to take on a whole different perspective in my book.
 

CANHawk

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FlyingGreg":1c5eex0j said:
bestfightstory":1c5eex0j said:
He acknowledges our ability to get megastars (Sherman, Wilson) way down the draft board but questions our first round acuity (Carpenter, Irvin).

Ha - so does .Net!

:thfight7:

Yeah, Russell Okung and Earl Thomas are SUCH dissapointments... :34853_doh:
 

onanygivensunday

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Seems to me that the Whiners are being draft-graded assuming the benefit of the pre-Baalke drafts... and the Hawks are being down-graded based on the INCs (incompletes) of Carp and Irvin.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Hawkfan77":2glplgdx said:
Really though, they want to nitpick us for taking Carpenter but there is no mention of AJ Jenkins. I'm really having a hard time seeing how they are even remotely on the same level as us at drafting

I'd say they are very comparable. In significantly different ways.

San Francisco (Jenkins notwithstanding) has been far more successful with their first round picks of late. Obviously, they picked high when they scored in 2010. But so did we.

We both can boast an all pro selection on day 2-3 (Bowman/Sherman). We both scored big on day 2 QB picks.

Both teams are/were different though. San Fransisco was a team that was becoming a division winner in 2010. We blew up our roster entirely. They had plenty of veterans in the 3-4 year range coming into their own. So their strategy was entirely different than ours.

Even today, our strategies are different -- each playing to the strengths of the teams. Seattle is good at finding talent deep in the draft and developing that talent. San Francisco is generally not good at all late in the draft, but is exceptional in day 1 and 2. We frequently opt to trade back to collect volume of late picks to increase our chances of getting guys late in the draft. Our hit rates are good for the draft round, but they are still comparatively modest.

We also tend to give away potential value by not particularly driving hard bargains. It means we have more opportunities for trading. Perhaps it was a lesson learned in 2011 when we were unable to trade out of the Carpenter pick as intended?

San Fransisco has shown the ability to drive very hard bargains. They 'win' their trades in a very predictable fashion. They also show a willingness/appreciation to 'trade forward' -- getting better value in future years. Their roster is generally firmly set. They also don't have a strong willingness to play rookies and develop them early. They are collecting better future picks that should coincide with age attrition on the roster.

And those higher future picks tend to coincide with their apparent ability to hit big on their early picks.

Now, I will agree with the opinion that our model is superior. It is in essence success proof. We do a MUCH better job of developing talent than SF does and we trust rookies more. The only players that have produced for SF early are guys taken in the first half of round one (Bowman, Kaepernick and Miller the remarkable exceptions). They don't trust rookies and their development has predictably taken longer to effect. Add to that, their model of trading forward to maintain draft success -- and they generally need to draft two years in advance on perceived need. Their ability to recover from a draft day mistake is highly compromised. Whereas we enjoy the luxury of doubling down on a perceived need the year it becomes apparent (or even before e.g. Michael/Ward).

I see our model being much more sustainable going forward. And one can't dismiss a total draft whiff the likes of 2012. Even though I'd expect some production from that class this year. The fact that it doesn't look like any of their 'awesome' draft class this year is going to start either is an ill omen for them. If 2013 looks similar to their 2012 class -- with only one or maybe two bit role backup players, then I'd say Baalke's skill is highly overrated. Not Bill Polian overrated. But certainly built on the hits of early first round picks (at generally unimportant positions at that).
 
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Hawkfan77

Hawkfan77

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Attyla the Hawk":1vq6b2dx said:
San Francisco (Jenkins notwithstanding) has been far more successful with their first round picks of late. Obviously, they picked high when they scored in 2010. But so did we.

We both can boast an all pro selection on day 2-3 (Bowman/Sherman). We both scored big on day 2 QB picks.

Both teams are/were different though. San Fransisco was a team that was becoming a division winner in 2010. We blew up our roster entirely. They had plenty of veterans in the 3-4 year range coming into their own. So their strategy was entirely different than ours.
My problem is their FO has been together since 2011. The 3 drafts that they have had together (Harbaugh and Baalke) pale in comparison to the drafts that Schneider and Carroll have put together. Heck the majority of players they are winning win are guys that McCloughan drafted (who is now with us).

So that's where I'm coming from. I'm not talking about the past five years, ESPN is projecting what these FO will do, and I don't see how SF's current FO has out performed ours, especially with the roster the 2 FO's inherited. ESPN should not give Harbaugh and Baalke credit for the the 2010 draft when Harbaugh wasn't even there and McCloughan had been fired one month before the draft so the interim GM (which I believe was Baalke) was using McCloughan's draft board.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Hawkfan77":3avhleo3 said:
My problem is their FO has been together since 2011. The 3 drafts that they have had together (Harbaugh and Baalke) pale in comparison to the drafts that Schneider and Carroll have put together. Heck the majority of players they are winning win are guys that McCloughan drafted (who is now with us).

So that's where I'm coming from. I'm not talking about the past five years, ESPN is projecting what these FO will do, and I don't see how SF's current FO has out performed ours, especially with the roster the 2 FO's inherited. ESPN should not give Harbaugh and Baalke credit for the the 2010 draft when Harbaugh wasn't even there and McCloughan had been fired one month before the draft so the interim GM (which I believe was Baalke) was using McCloughan's draft board.

I'm not either. I just went from 2010 on. Baalke, it's been pretty widely reported, managed that draft as well. Baalke was with the team since 2005 and was Director of player personnel 2008-9 and VP of player personnel in 2010. Obviously he had a strong hand in the collection of talents there as well as player evaluation and setting up Niners draft boards.

I've not seen anything to contradict the reporting that 2010 was essentially his draft -- McCloughan having been sidelined from the organization well before the draft and combine. It certainly would be easily understandable given the timing of Scott's dismissal.

But it's not just drafts either. He signed over 30 players via UFA and by trade who were key players to their success over the last 2 seasons. In this regard, he's been close to Schneiders' equal in terms of getting quality outside the draft. We generally have a more selective criteria in terms of age/long term signability (outside of the bulk dumpster dive treadmill). Baalke seems to have worked older veterans at mid to high middle tier in quality.

I would definitely agree, that the Baalke/Harbaugh collaboration beginning in 2011 has not produced equally to ours. But it's pretty close. Even by that standard, I'd say Kaepernick/Aldon Smith/Bruce Miller have been pretty equal to Wagner/Wilson/Sherman/Irvin. Kaep/Wilson and Sherman/Smith are pretty much a wash. I'd give the nod squarely to us as we've produced several other starters in those drafts while SF didn't. But they didn't blow their drafts entirely.

That 2010 draft though was a haymaker. You have 2 All Pros in there. We can't say that.
 

kearly

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In the 49ers case, they have coaching too low and front office too high. Harbaugh made that team what it is, no area more than the QB position.

I'd rank SF's current FO as average. They have been sub-par in free agency. The guy who built the core of that roster isn't there anymore, in fact he's in Seattle now. Their 2011 draft was excellent- though the draft board for it was essentially already constructed by Baalke's predecessor before Baalke took over, assuming that like most NFL teams, the 49ers draft boards are mostly set by January. Of course, Baalke was a big part of that process so I shouldn't diminish him too much. So anyway, 2011, great job, but their 2012 draft is off to a very bad start. Their 2013 draft is over-rated as they drafted big names over unheralded talents- the way the Cardinals have done for years. Whether I'm right or Mel Kiper is right about the 49ers 2013 draft, it's silly to grade it right now and factor it in to this analysis.

Really, the best thing I can say about Baalke is that he swindled Andy Reid out of two very good picks for Alex Smith, but I think that probably had more to do with Reid than Baalke.

I do think that SF probably has better odds to win the division in 2013 (thanks to some unbelievable scheduling favoritism), and they should be very heavy favorites to win the next SB. But in 2016? Most of the current core will be over 30. I don't see it.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Really, the best thing I can say about Baalke is that he swindled Andy Reid out of two very good picks for Alex Smith, but I think that probably had more to do with Reid than Baalke.
For some reason Reid really likes Smith so I believe you're right on that.
 

Pandion Haliaetus

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I think we can answer this rather easily:

Between 2008 and 2009 which team was better of the two? I'm going to go with the 49ers.

2010 both team both had 2 first round choices, yet despite the Seahawks making over 200 roster transastions, which team finished a top of the NFC West, albiet with a 7-9 record. Seahawks.

Jim Harbaugh inherited a pretty solid team, they had Smith, Gore, the corner stones of their O-line set, Crabtree, Davis, Walker on Offense. They had Justin Smith, Dashon Goldson, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks.

Just think about it, how many Seahawks in 2012 played for the team in 2010. Do the same for the 49ers, how many 49ers in 2012, were on the team in 2010. You find a big difference between the teams.

Seahawks are definately a year or two behind in acquiring core talent which showed in 2011, but in the end we were only 1 game from winning the NFC West last year. Its pretty equal. I don't think anybody can say the 49ers are better. Once the Seahawks grow-up, 49ers will be playing catch-up.
 

RolandDeschain

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kearly":2fvqwcul said:
Harbaugh made that team what it is, no area more than the QB position.

I'd be hesitant to use that general of a statement, personally. He's a great coach, don't misunderstand me; but in fact, he came in and used virtually the same exact set of starting players the previous regime had and got significantly more mileage out of them. Mostly on offense by dumbing down the playbook and replacing a lot of the coaching staff under him. He didn't "make" much in the general sense of the word. Pete Carroll is someone who has made significantly more than Harbaugh has in the last couple of years. That doesn't mean he's better at coaching than Harbaugh, but as of right now, Harbaugh hasn't demonstrated that he can make/build anything, IMO.
 

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Atayla, a couple questions about your post. Sorry I can't copy it on my cell and please excuse spelling but how much credit is the right amount for Balkes 2010 draft? No doubt he deserves credit but McClouhan was involved up to a month prior so it is likely safe to believe he had a hand in assembling that board and could be questioned if he had a huge hand in it. Letting him go a month before the draft kind of suggests they wanted his input but not his interference, doesn't it?

You also said Balke has brought in over 30 udfa's that were a big part of the last couple of years. Would you mind providing some examples? I am not arguing it but I can only think of a few that got regular playing time and none that would be comparable to BMW, Baldwin or Gaicomini for example.

You wash Sherman and Smith but Smith was a top ten draft pick vs Sherman being a 5th rounder. Is that really a wash? Seems to me the team that is getting it's all pro's in day three of the draft should be higher ranked.

I'm not arguing your post, just curios about a couple things.

Roland, I agree with your assessment of Harbaugh in general. He did a great job with a fresh canvas full of brilliant colors but how will he do long term? Can he keep key players? Will they sign for less to stay there and will he (and Blake) find suitable replacements as well as develop them?

We just seen several of last years starters bolt in FA. Will more go next year?
 

MysterMatt

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bestfightstory":2tc8eeur said:
Haha-I was just looking at this. Kiper's comments on our draft style were interesting and fair.

He acknowledges our ability to get megastars (Sherman, Wilson) way down the draft board but questions our first round acuity (Carpenter, Irvin).
It's fair. I'm optimistic about our high-round picks, but nobody since Thomas or Okung have made a consistent impact that one would hope for from an 1st Rounder. Irvin had a good sack total last year, but disappeared down the stretch.
 

NinerLifer

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Hawkfan77":2gxr8r2m said:
ESPN evaluated the core of every team as it projects to 2016. They used a scoring system (out of 100) that graded out: Roster, QB, Draft, Front Office and Coaching.

1. SF-87.50

2. GB-83.63

3. SEA-82.58

According to ESPN, SF will have a better roster than us, they do better at the draft than we do, they have a better FO and better coaches. They did however, grade out our QBs the same.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... 016-season

I would say that this is pretty spot on.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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RichNhansom":25i7k9r6 said:
Atayla, a couple questions about your post. Sorry I can't copy it on my cell and please excuse spelling but how much credit is the right amount for Balkes 2010 draft? No doubt he deserves credit but McClouhan was involved up to a month prior so it is likely safe to believe he had a hand in assembling that board and could be questioned if he had a huge hand in it. Letting him go a month before the draft kind of suggests they wanted his input but not his interference, doesn't it?

You also said Balke has brought in over 30 udfa's that were a big part of the last couple of years. Would you mind providing some examples? I am not arguing it but I can only think of a few that got regular playing time and none that would be comparable to BMW, Baldwin or Gaicomini for example.

From reports at the time, as well as those following the release of McCloughan -- it appears that the move at the administrative level was already made prior to the combine. The amount of influence McCloughan had in the 2010 draft is questionable. The organization was pretty tight lipped about the situation at the time, but after his release they downplayed his role in the 2010 draft. Now that could be just them trying to spin a decidedly odd parting of the ways. But there is no actual reporting that McCloughan did impact that draft.

If the decision to let him go was made around the time it was reported he was on the outs -- then it's more likely that McCloughan didn't have much to do with the draft. Baalke would have certainly been in a more authoritative position on prospects as Director of player personnel and being organizationally closer to the scouting department than McCloughan.

Remember, Baalke wasn't named GM until January of 2011. But he was a company man for the organization and had a strong hand in both signing and scouting players as part of his duties prior to McCloughan leaving. He was in essence an interim GM for 7 months -- and the reports say it was closer to a year.

As for signings:

T Alex Boone
LB Ahmad Brooks
CB Carlos Rogers
C Jonathan Goodwin
S Donte Whitner


Trades:

Kentwan Balmer to Seattle
Taylor Mays to Cincinnati


Those moves, outside of the normal garbage moves stand out. Getting anything for Balmer and Mays was kind of like us getting something for Tarvaris.

I don't want to make it sound like a niner apologist. Far from it. But SF didn't get to where they are by mistake. And because we see the older talent (Willis, Staley, Davis, Justin Smith) on the roster -- it's very easy to assume they are old. But the core of that team is still young as we are. Replacing Smith is going to be they key move for them. I'm gratified that they didn't do that this year.

I would agree, that we do far better at getting talent late. But I also concede that SF has done a much better job than we have of stockpiling higher picks that they don't waste. Literally, Seattle and SF are two halves of the perfect front office. They don't whiff on their day 1 picks as we do. They do a better job of getting more return for the picks they do trade away than we do. We draft much better than they do. And we develop rookie talent much better than they do.

I do think, that this 2013 draft is the one that will cement SF's drafting acumen. They had incredible draft capital in the first several rounds in a draft that was historically deep. If they fail to develop more starters from this draft than we do, then I'd say they got lucky early and are not capable of sustaining this rivalry. The one thing that cannot be said about Seattle, is that we are inconsistent. We get impact in every draft, in multiple areas of the draft. This year, despite a handicap on draft capital -- looks to be a typically great Seahawks draft.
 
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