Hawks D vs. Top 8 NFL Defenses in Asset Expenditure

[Fade]

(2023 Edition)

Here it is, the thread you've all been waiting for part II !!! A year has passed, heavy investment was made once again into the defense, and wouldn't you know it? The Seahawks are bottom 5 AGAIN, inexplicably.

-The format: Top 8 (Top 25%) defenses in the NFL + the Seahawks.

-The assets they expended (Cash) + Draft Capital to build said top 8 defenses through 13 games.

-Rich Hill Valuation Model 2024 Draft Value Chart used to determine points for each pick, while factoring in trade ups.

-Cash spending via Arjun Menon on twitter.

-ESPN transaction wire to scan for any potentially missed trades.


=================
RAVENS
2nd (Yards), 2nd (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 24 out of 32 teams ($92M+)
Draft Capital: 1271 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd, '19 50 pts. Jaylon Ferguson
1st, '20 209 pts. Patrick Queen
3rd, '20 68 pts. Justin Madubuike
3rd, '20 37 pts. Tyre Phillips
1st, '21 190 pts. Odafe Oweh
3rd, '21 33 pts. Brandon Stephens
1st, '22 325 pts. Kyle Hamilton
2nd, '22 131 pts. David Ojabo
2nd, '22 118 pts. Roquan Smith (#53 + #148)
3rd, '22 61 pts. Travis Jones
3rd, '23 49 pts. Trenton Simpson
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (2), 3rd (6), 11 picks.

# Notes: The Ravens aren't spending a lot of cash relative to the some other top defenses, and they have a nice balanced spread when it comes to their draft picks. A job well done.

=================
49ERS
8th (Yards), 1st (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 1st out of 32 teams (Nearly $160M)
Draft Capital: 1245 pts.

First 3 Rounds: Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.) + '24 Future picks if applicable.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st '19, 717 pts. Nick Bosa
1st'20, 325 pts. Javon Kinlaw
3rd'21, 35 pts. Ambry Thomas
2nd'22, 86 pts. Drake Jackson
3rd'23, 48 pts. Ji'Ayir Brown
3rd'24, 34 pts. Chase Young
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (3), 6 picks.

# Notes: They threw the last compensatory pick of the 3rd round at the Commies for Chase Young. They haven't spent much draft capital at all on defense the last 3 seasons, this will come back to bite them in the years upcoming.

=================
BROWNS
1st (Yards), 14th (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 11th out of 32 teams ($110+M)
Draft Capital: 935 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'19, 131 pts. Greedy Williams (#49 + #144)
3rd'19, 56 pts. Sione Takitaki
2nd'20, 135 pts. Grant Delpit
3rd'20, 47 pts. Jordan Elliot
3rd'20, 38 pts. Jacob Phillips
1st'21, 223 pts. Greg Newsome II
2nd'21, 136 pts. Jeremia Owusu-Kaoramoah (#52 + #113)
3rd'22, 73 pts. Martin Emerson
3rd'22, 59 pts. Alex Wright
3rd'23, 37 Siaki Ika
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (1), 2nd (3), 3rd (6), 10 picks.

# Notes: The #1 YPG defense in the league would look a lot better if they didn't have the QB issues, which has put them in bad situations throughout the season, surrendering cheap points. No real crazy draft capital investment either in the last 5 years with so many of their draft picks going to DeShaun Watson.


=================
VIKINGS
10th (Yards), 5th (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 28th out of 32 teams ($85M+)
Draft Capital: 877 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
'19 N/A. All offense
1st '20, 261 pts. Jeff Gladney
3rd '20, 46 pts. Cameron Dantzler
3rd '21, 59 pts. Chazz Surratt
3rd '21, 45 pts. Patrick Jones II
1st '22, 184 pts. Lewis Cine
2nd '22, 172 pts. Andrew Booth Jr. (#53 + #77 + #192)
3rd '22, 76 pts. Brian Asamoah
3rd '23, 34 pts. Mekhi Blackmon
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (5), 8 picks.

# Notes: Minnesota had the worst defense in the NFL in 2022. Having minimal investment with essentially the same guys, but with a quality DC hire, they are now a top 8 defense in the league, which is providing the best bang for the buck defense in the league. Coaching/Scheme > Talent.


=================
CHIEFS
6th (Yards), 3rd (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 30th out of 32 teams ($75M+)
Draft Capital: 1350 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 274 pts. Frank Clark (#29 + #92 + #64 - #84)
2nd '19, 82 pts. Juan Thornhill
3rd '19, 51 pts. Khalen Saunders
2nd '20, 82 pts. Willie Gay
2nd '21, 93 pts. Nick Bolton
1st '22, 265 pts. Trent McDuffie (#29 + #94 + #121)
1st '22, 196 pts. George Karlaftis
2nd '22, 84 pts. Bryan Cook
3rd '22, 33 pts. Leo Chenal
1st '23, 190 pts. Felix Anudike-Uzomah
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (4), 2nd (5), 3rd (3), 12 picks.

# Notes: Amazing job by the Chiefs to build such an economical defense, while spending most of their money on offense.



================
JETS
5th (Yards), 8th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 3rd out of 32 teams ($135M+)
Draft Capital: 1773 pts


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 514 pts. Quinnen Williams
3rd'19, 73 pts. Jachai Polite
3rd'20, 73 pts. Ashtyn Davis
3rd'20, 57 pts. Jabari Zuniga
'21 - None (All Offense)
1st'22, 491 pts. Sauce Gardner
2nd+3rd'22, 250 pts. Jermaine Johnson II (Traded up: #35 + #69 + #163)
1st'23 315 pts. Will McDonald
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (1), 3rd (4), 8 picks.

# Notes: Heavy investment in both cash and draft capital is at least showing up on the field for them. They would be even better if the offense wasn't the worst in the league surrendering cheap points.


================
COWBOYS
3rd (Yards), 4th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 9th out of 32 teams ($118M+)
Draft Capital: 1258 pts.


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'19, 93 pts. Trysten Hill
2nd'20, 112 pts. Trevon Diggs
3rd'20, 54 pts. Neville Gallimore
1st'21, 347 pts. Micah Parsons (Dan Quinn '21, fix the Defense.)
2nd'21, 135 pts. Kelvin Joseph
3rd'21, 63 pts. Osa Odighizuwa
3rd'21, 51 pts. Chauncey Golsten
3rd'21, 37 pts. Nahshon Wright
2nd'22, 98 pts. Sam Williams
1st'23, 223 pts. Mazi Smith
3rd'23, 45 pts. Demarvion Overshown
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (3), 3rd (5), 10 picks.

# Notes: Quinn did an amazing job turning around the 32nd ranked defense in one off-season. They've been top 5 in all 3 seasons he's been the DC in Dallas since.

================
BILLS
14th (Yards), 6th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 7th out of 32 teams ($128M+)
Draft Capital: 1174


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 387 pts. Ed Oliver
2nd'20, 104 pts. A.J. Epenesa
1st'21, 196 pts. Gregory Rousseau
2nd'21, 86 pts. Carlos Basham Jr.
1st'22, 251 pts. Kaiir Elam (Traded up: #25 + #130)
3rd'22, 46 pts. Terrel Bernard
3rd,23, 44 pts. Dorian Williams
3rd'24, 60 pts. Rasul Douglas (#87 + #150)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (2), 3rd (3), 8 picks.

#Notes: Defensive Head Coaches drag down teams and they underachieve. Sean McDermott is just another one in a long line, being the current poster child, having Josh Allen in his prime. This sort of underachievement was celebrated in Seattle for YEARS, and I was villainized for calling it out. I regret nothing.


==================
SEAHAWKS
28th (Yards), 27th (Points)
==================

Cash Spending on Defense: 2nd out of 32 teams ($138M+)
Draft Capital: 2264 pts. (WTF?)

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 203 pts. L.J. Collier
2nd'19, 124 pts. Marquise Blair
3rd'19, 51 pts. Cody Barton (Traded up #92 + #159 - #209)
1st'20, 216 pts. Jordyn Brooks
2nd+3rd'20, 127 pts. Darrell Taylor (Traded up #59 + #101)
1st+3rd'21+1st'22, 631 pts Jamal Adams (Trade: #23 + #86 + '22 #10 - '22 #109)
2nd'22, 149 pts. Boye Mafe
1st'23, 468 pts. Devin Witherspoon
2nd'23, 162 pts. Derick Hall
2nd'24, 131 pts. Leonard Williams (#44 as of this post)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (5), 2nd (5), 3rd (3), 13 picks.

Notes: Utter failure. Flushing assets year after year only to get worse. Featuring nearly DOUBLE the draft capital spent over the 49ers and all but 1 of the top 8 defenses in the league for that matter, while also spending the 2nd most cash in the league on defense, all of this investment to be a bottom 5 defense? Absolutely pathetic. Swapping puppet DCs will not fix this. five 1sts & five 2nds is absolute clown world to invest that much into one side of the ball in 5 years and be bottom 5.

The analogy would be like, imagine the Seahawks traded three 1st rounders for a QB, and made him the highest paid in the league, and he turns out to be one of the worst QBs in the league. That is the equivalent. This sort of incompetence is supposed to get people fired. That is the Seahawks Defense, and this isn't new.

I actually think they are talented, like 10-15. They are just so badly coached, being forced to play a style that doesn't fit their personnel, while being sloppy as hell. It is turning them into bottom 5. Either way, the blame lies with Pete. He is the architect. This is the defense he constructed. It's on him.

I haven't looked at all 32 teams, but I surmise Seattle is #1 in draft capital spent on defense over the last 5 years. And like I tried to tell folks last year, throwing more assets at the defense isn't going to fix it, as some claimed would be the way to fix the defense leading up to me doing this same thread last year to show them. They have systemic issues at the top with Pete. 12 months later, it is on full display once again for everyone to see and it is even worse!

Rankings in Cash Investment 2023:
------
1) 49ERS $159M+

--> SEAHAWKS $138M+ <----- Are Here

2) JETS $135M+
3) BILLS $128M+
4) COWBOYS $118M+
5) BROWNS $110M+
6) RAVENS $92M+
7) VIKINGS $85M+
8) CHIEFS $75M+


Rankings in Major Draft Capital Investment for Defensive Players Since 2019:
------

--> SEAHAWKS 2237 pts. <----- Are Here

1) JETS 1773 pts.
2) CHIEFS 1350 pts.
3) RAVENS 1271 pts.
4) COWBOYS 1258 pts.
5) 49ERS 1245 pts.
6) BILLS 1174 pts.
7) BROWNS 935 pts.
8) VIKINGS 877 pts.


To say the Seahawks are one of the worst coached and constructed defenses of the last 5 years is the understatement of the century.

UPDATED: KC CHIEFS (Frank Clark) / LEO WILLIAMS Corrected to #44.

 

[TwistedHusky]

The sad thing is that people should know this.
We've all seen the same FA signings and the same draft picks.
This shouldn't be news, because if you are a Seahawk fan you probably know who they drafted the past 5 years, and who they signed as FAs.
You probably also know who worked out and who didn't.

But some people have to see the whole thing laid out for them before they get it. We spend big (draft and cap) on defense but we get very little in return.

Then, if you look at the pieces...it looks puzzingly like it SHOULD much better. It becomes pretty clear shortly thereafter, it isn't the players but the plan. Not how they play, but how they are used.

Disappointing but not surprising.

 

[nwHawk]

Thanks for putting this breakdown together. Tough situation. Total failure across the board.

 

[HuskyHawk]

@Fade I thoroughly enjoyed reading your post. I knew the situation was bad, but reading the data made me realize it is so much worse than I thought.

Thank you for putting this all together.

 

[Ozzy]

This destroys the argument of Seattle always picks late so does Baltimore, KC, etc Pete/John get a pass rinse and repeat.

 

[AubHawk71]

The war of attrition never ends.

 

[mistaowen]

Tremendous breakdown, thanks for taking the time to spell this all out. I would say, the talent difference amongst all these teams isn't too different and I'd agree Seattle on paper is probably 10-15th. The past two drafts have recalibrated the roster and actually injected some guys who would start for other teams for once. The best of the best have a game wrecking edge rusher who every down is basically winning single/double teams - Garrett, Parsons, Bosa, etc. Nwosu is good but not in that pedigree and it's obviously very hard to find one. But him going out took this defense from somewhere in the average/below average range to terrible. So ultimately the difference between each is coaching, preparedness, scheme fit, and execution.

The only team from this list that I'd think is comparably built back end first $$$ wise is Buffalo and their safeties are actually pretty great. Their defense just falls apart at the end of games for whatever reason. But they are very aggressive, something Pete and co absolutely aren't.

What the Ravens did is ultimately what I want to see happen this offseason. More or less clean house of all these in-house Pete Carroll guys who won't get an NFL job anywhere else and hire someone from college to basically oversee everything on that side of the ball. There are a lot of excellent defenses in college that schematically carry an otherwise less talented roster compared to some of the best recruiters (cough, $$$). You can't just line up in your base coverage without any disguises or misdirection anymore, Pete said they are doing more of it than we were 10 years ago, but I don't think they do enough at all pre-snap to confuse quarterbacks. Ravens more or less have the same personnel but adjusted their scheme to create as much havoc and confusion as possible. I don't know why Pete is still so reliant on bend but don't break ideology, limit explosives (ha, don't even do that anymore) while not caring about total yards/TOP.

 

[James in PA]

Thanks for putting this together and further proving that Pete is INCAPABLE of countering the modern NFL offense. He can't even achieve "average" at this point. He is piss poor at it.

 

[James in PA]

If Pete is allowed to return, they will draft a safety with their first pick, overspend in free agency for an average pass rusher, and draft a LB in the 3rd or 4th who ends up being another Barton.

Then we can hear again how "this feels like 2012."

Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[Natethegreat]

The Jamal Adams trade was a failure of the highest level. Pete continually goes all in year after year mortgaging our future, and I'm sick of it. His motto is win forever, but his actions are consistently mortgage the future for desperate plays at relevance now.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Seattle built back to front because safeties were cheap and big rangy corners were not in demand. Remember everyone clamoring for 6 ft and under corners that ran a 4.2?

We got Sherman in the 5th because of this. Browner was a CFL guy. Big physical corners were not the model, fast corners were.

LBs were also comparatively cheap. What was (and still is) expensive was the DL, especially pass rushing ends. It made sense to build back to front, because it was cheaper.

It wasn't some amazing connection to DBs, even though Pete was a former DB coach. It was football arbitrage.

We got lucky on building the DL later with FA/trades, though we had a few pieces already.

Not sure we can repeat that given how corners are almost as in demand as LTs now.

 

[cymatica]

Seattle built back to front because safeties were cheap and big rangy corners were not in demand. Remember everyone clamoring for 6 ft and under corners that ran a 4.2?

We got Sherman in the 5th because of this. Browner was a CFL guy. Big physical corners were not the model, fast corners were.

LBs were also comparatively cheap. What was (and still is) expensive was the DL, especially pass rushing ends. It made sense to build back to front, because it was cheaper.

It wasn't some amazing connection to DBs, even though Pete was a former DB coach. It was football arbitrage.

We got lucky on building the DL later with FA/trades, though we had a few pieces already.

Not sure we can repeat that given how corners are almost as in demand as LTs now.

That and Thomas made that defense next level on the back end. Would have been good without him, but his range made it that much tougher on offenses

 

[OneLofaTatupu]

Just confirms what most of us know - coaching is garbage - and it won’t change - so hopefully we can hold on and ride it out through 2025 unless people retire.

 

[James in PA]

Pete's reaction to today's NFL offenses.

 

[Polk738]

The 2019 whiffs along with the Adams trade really hit this team hard as there are no seasoned vets from that draft class.

 

[knownone]

If the goal is using value invested, why do a retrospective analysis? That doesn't make sense unless your primary goal is making the team look bad with the benefit of hindsight. This is most obvious with Jamal, whose actual value, at the time of the trade, was 245 (1st) + 89 (3rd) + 80 (F1st) - 8 (F4th) = 406. (I omitted McDougald).

It would be fine if you were thorough and factored in value-added through trades. But you didn't. For example, the trades that eventually led to Blair netted Seattle over 200 points in overall draft capital and DK Metcalf (among others). Here, you've ignored the value added in trading back while including the value you lost in trading up. Why? To raise the total?

 

[flv2]

The Seahawks defense has under achieved when compared to resources invested. Some of the defenders look to be making business decisions on the field, (not tackling/rushing to get to the tackle so as not to risk injury). I don't condone them, but this is an average team talent-wise and there is a lack of behavioral accountability.

 

[morgulon1]

The moves made , FA and draft has severely underperformed. While people absolutely have the right to defend this dumpster fire of a team , I don't see why anyone would at this point.
Seattle has more invested money than anyone yet is near the bottom of the league for 4-5 years.

How does anyone defend this ?

 

[Ozzy]

If the goal is using value invested, why do a retrospective analysis? That doesn't make sense unless your primary goal is making the team look bad with the benefit of hindsight. This is most obvious with Jamal, whose actual value, at the time of the trade, was 245 (1st) + 89 (3rd) + 80 (F1st) - 8 (F4th) = 406. (I omitted McDougald).

It would be fine if you were thorough and factored in value-added through trades. But you didn't. For example, the trades that eventually led to Blair netted Seattle over 200 points in overall draft capital and DK Metcalf (among others). Here, you've ignored the value added in trading back while including the value you lost in trading up. Why? To raise the total?

Regardless they’ve invested a ton and the defense is terrible. I think it’s fair to say Fades main point is a good one. They have poured a lot into a defense that seems to be regressing instead of progressing.

 

[nanomoz]

Thanks, Fade. Lots of work, here.

What stands out to me is how many players have flashed, but don't seem to either be progressing, or, being used in a way that makes the defense better. The sum of this defense's parts is kind of an indictment when you consider the quality of many of these parts.