To the Out With Pete people

[LTH]

What’s being overlooked is the crap drafting and free Pass John Schneider gets. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts....only two players still on the team. Jaran Reed and Tyler Lockett. That is pathetic. Pete needs to get talent on the team to continue his success...and Schneider failed from 2013-2016 to provide that to Pete. He has done average the last 3 drafts....but his complete stinkers put the team in the position it is in now. Terrible replenishment of talent through the draft.

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Both are true. Thats is how drafts are measured. Specifically firsst round picks. We havent given a second contract to any of or first round draft picks since Earl Thomas. Thats a horrendous stretch. The trades have been total failures as well.

I haven't looked at the numbers cause I'm not a stat guy but just assuming your right that the Hawks don't give second contracts why do you think that is? It's because of the salary cap...The Hawks have several big contracts at key positions with key leadership players... Also players that don't buy into the program get tossed.. sometimes because of the salary cap the Hawks have to fill holes in FA they don't have the cap space to have tier one FA so they have to be patient and find the right players like Dunlap or mortgage the future drafts but when you have a GM who goes into the draft with 4 picks and comes out of the draft with 11 picks you can do that kind of stuff...


LTH

 

[AgentDib]

The Seahawks under Carroll will never see another Super Bowl... If a poll were made to see if people believed the Seahawks would see another Super Bowl with Pete Carroll, I guarantee the 'No's' would have a large majority of the votes.

While likely true, this isn't the criticism of the FO you are presenting it as.

The odds of the Seahawks winning a Super Bowl with any coach in a five year window are small, and citing that as evidence of a problem just indicates that you have unrealistic expectations. I like Wilson as much as anybody, but he's being paid extremely well for his services and the value he brings in excess of that contract is small due to nature of free agency. That's how it should be, and it's completely unsupported to argue that we should be in the Super Bowl because we have a great QB (making a great amount of money). If Wilson was on his rookie deal then you'd have a much stronger case.

“Honestly, (Schneider’s) chasing ghosts,” the league evaluator said

Finding a "league evaluator" to have differing opinions on a draft pick may be the easiest thing to do in the NFL. The only reason that fans are under the illusion that there is some kind of big board consensus is because the public ("free") draft analysts read each others stuff and so they eventually merge over time.

NFL teams are paying their much better scouting personnel for private information and do not share that information, and it does not converge as a result. As a result, the 49ers and the Seahawks could have wildly different grades on the same prospect and both of those grades could be wildly different from the meaningless "consensus big board" mock rankings.

 

[onepicknick1]

Who would you rather have? Serious question. I see tons of people saying get Pete out of here but very few people are offering suggestions. Personally I am against firing Pete. Who stands out to you? Saleh? Can't see him coming here. Who would you guys want running the team?

But we all know it won't happen. He has been in the playoffs almost every year since he got here. We are always competitive. It is extremely unlikely he won't at least coach out his extension. But I got ripped in another thread for asking this and still haven't got an answer on who people would want as the HC

Jim Harbaugh Let Jim Cook

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Who would you rather have? Serious question. I see tons of people saying get Pete out of here but very few people are offering suggestions. Personally I am against firing Pete. Who stands out to you? Saleh? Can't see him coming here. Who would you guys want running the team?

But we all know it won't happen. He has been in the playoffs almost every year since he got here. We are always competitive. It is extremely unlikely he won't at least coach out his extension. But I got ripped in another thread for asking this and still haven't got an answer on who people would want as the HC

Jim Harbaugh Let Jim Cook

Harbaugh can't even turn around his alma mater with the bottomless coffers of a blue blood school like Michigan and the full support of every booster on campus.

No thanks. He's weird, and has a serious personality disorder. It's why he burns so hot and wore out his welcome in SF after only four years.

 

[Flyingsquad23]

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-d ... ince-2015/
This link has a full chart relating to draft hit rates since 2015

A couple things I noticed

Hit Rate
Hawks #11
Some teams with higher hit rate...Miami, Cincinnati, WFT all perennial losers

Success Rate
Hawks #7
With the #1 team being the WFT. No playoffs and a 5-7 record this year

% On Team
Hawks #14
Some teams below the Hawks...Cards, Rams, Packers, Saints, 9er’s, Vikings, Patriots, and Chiefs

2018 Playing Time
Didn’t count the spots but the Hawks were near the bottom of this metric yet they are ahead of..
Packers, Ravens, Rams and Patriots

From what I see within this chart the talk of John and Pete underperforming with the draft is way off.

 

[cymatica]

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/
This link has a full chart relating to draft hit rates since 2015

A couple things I noticed

Hit Rate
Hawks #11
Some teams with higher hit rate...Miami, Cincinnati, WFT all perennial losers

Success Rate
Hawks #7
With the #1 team being the WFT. No playoffs and a 5-7 record this year

% On Team
Hawks #14
Some teams below the Hawks...Cards, Rams, Packers, Saints, 9er’s, Vikings, Patriots, and Chiefs

2018 Playing Time
Didn’t count the spots but the Hawks were near the bottom of this metric yet they are ahead of..
Packers, Ravens, Rams and Patriots

From what I see within this chart the talk of John and Pete underperforming with the draft is way off.

Good post, these stats actually tell a lot more than the other posts. The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years, so trying to nitpick a GM for the number of players still playing who were drafted before 2017 means nothing.

 

[cymatica]

What’s being overlooked is the crap drafting and free Pass John Schneider gets. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts....only two players still on the team. Jaran Reed and Tyler Lockett. That is pathetic. Pete needs to get talent on the team to continue his success...and Schneider failed from 2013-2016 to provide that to Pete. He has done average the last 3 drafts....but his complete stinkers put the team in the position it is in now. Terrible replenishment of talent through the draft.

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Only player in the league from the following draft still playing

2013: Luke Willson (below average role player)
2014: No one
2015: Frank Clark (hit but traded), Tyler Lockett (hit), Mark Glowinski (Sucked in SEA)
2016: Ifedi (sucked), Jarran Reed (Average), Prosise (Twisted an ankle as I typed), Vannett (terrible), Alex Collins (re-signed but nothing special), Quentin Jefferson (Borderline Average)

Minus Frank Clark, who was traded, who else is noteworthy that has left the team?

Did you factor in injuries or the fact that the average career lasts 3.3 years? I would bet most GMs don't look that great if you make this list for them

 

[LTH]

What’s being overlooked is the crap drafting and free Pass John Schneider gets. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts....only two players still on the team. Jaran Reed and Tyler Lockett. That is pathetic. Pete needs to get talent on the team to continue his success...and Schneider failed from 2013-2016 to provide that to Pete. He has done average the last 3 drafts....but his complete stinkers put the team in the position it is in now. Terrible replenishment of talent through the draft.

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Only player in the league from the following draft still playing

2013: Luke Willson (below average role player)
2014: No one
2015: Frank Clark (hit but traded), Tyler Lockett (hit), Mark Glowinski (Sucked in SEA)
2016: Ifedi (sucked), Jarran Reed (Average), Prosise (Twisted an ankle as I typed), Vannett (terrible), Alex Collins (re-signed but nothing special), Quentin Jefferson (Borderline Average)

Minus Frank Clark, who was traded, who else is noteworthy that has left the team?

Did you factor in injuries or the fact that the average career lasts 3.3 years? I would bet most GMs don't look that great if you make this list for them

Exactly!

 

[pittpnthrs]

The Seahawks under Carroll will never see another Super Bowl... If a poll were made to see if people believed the Seahawks would see another Super Bowl with Pete Carroll, I guarantee the 'No's' would have a large majority of the votes.

While likely true, this isn't the criticism of the FO you are presenting it as.

The odds of the Seahawks winning a Super Bowl with any coach in a five year window are small, and citing that as evidence of a problem just indicates that you have unrealistic expectations. I like Wilson as much as anybody, but he's being paid extremely well for his services and the value he brings in excess of that contract is small due to nature of free agency. That's how it should be, and it's completely unsupported to argue that we should be in the Super Bowl because we have a great QB (making a great amount of money). If Wilson was on his rookie deal then you'd have a much stronger case.

The only chance Russell Wilson with his remaining tenure in Seattle has reaching another Super Bowl is with a different coach. If the current trend continues at the end of his contract, he walks and I wouldnt blame him.

Its the fans that actually feel there's a chance or even expects it that have unrealistic expectations. I'm not saying a different coach would ultimately get us there either, but at this stage its worth a shot because Carroll has hit his ceiling and the Hawks are in a constant flux. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything once they get in. As for Wilson, i'm not saying the Hawks should make the Super Bowl just because of him, but he is good enough that 9 to 10 wins is automatic no matter who the coach is. With that being said, why not move on and try something new instead of always dying out in the early rounds of the playoffs with a coach that cant or wont move on from his antiquated game plan and philosophy that takes ultimate talent to execute? Bottom line is, the team is stuck losing in the early stages of the playoffs because thats all Carroll is capable of dialing up. Its crazy to read the same book over and over again expecting a different ending.

 

[Flyingsquad23]

The NFL is nothing like reading the same book over and over. Each season is unique in every way for every player, coach and staff. Every single game no matter how good the team or opponent is a contest, there are no predetermined winners.

Terrible coaches have won games and below average players have won games, emotion has helped many underdogs take it all. For you to claim Pete will never win a SB again is nothing but your opinion and doesn’t change the actual probability of it happening. My opinion is that with a proven winning coach and proven QB a team can come together and win 3-4 games against anyone.

The last 10 seasons are the proof I provide to you that his book has been anything but repetitive. Every season he has faced a major hurdle and or change to the overall program. And he managed to adapt enough to put together a winning era like nothing this city has seen.

 

[cymatica]

The Seahawks under Carroll will never see another Super Bowl... If a poll were made to see if people believed the Seahawks would see another Super Bowl with Pete Carroll, I guarantee the 'No's' would have a large majority of the votes.

While likely true, this isn't the criticism of the FO you are presenting it as.

The odds of the Seahawks winning a Super Bowl with any coach in a five year window are small, and citing that as evidence of a problem just indicates that you have unrealistic expectations. I like Wilson as much as anybody, but he's being paid extremely well for his services and the value he brings in excess of that contract is small due to nature of free agency. That's how it should be, and it's completely unsupported to argue that we should be in the Super Bowl because we have a great QB (making a great amount of money). If Wilson was on his rookie deal then you'd have a much stronger case.

The only chance Russell Wilson with his remaining tenure in Seattle has reaching another Super Bowl is with a different coach. If the current trend continues at the end of his contract, he walks and I wouldnt blame him.

Its the fans that actually feel there's a chance or even expects it that have unrealistic expectations. I'm not saying a different coach would ultimately get us there either, but at this stage its worth a shot because Carroll has hit his ceiling and the Hawks are in a constant flux. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything once they get in. As for Wilson, i'm not saying the Hawks should make the Super Bowl just because of him, but he is good enough that 9 to 10 wins is automatic no matter who the coach is. With that being said, why not move on and try something new instead of always dying out in the early rounds of the playoffs with a coach that cant or wont move on from his antiquated game plan and philosophy that takes ultimate talent to execute? Bottom line is, the team is stuck losing in the early stages of the playoffs because thats all Carroll is capable of dialing up. Its crazy to read the same book over and over again expecting a different ending.

Even the best coach of our generation went a decade without a SB win, and he is considered one of the best game planners with one of the best QBs.

 

[evergreen]

Pete didn't have a QB rating of 67...

 

[Subzero717]

What’s being overlooked is the crap drafting and free Pass John Schneider gets. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts....only two players still on the team. Jaran Reed and Tyler Lockett. That is pathetic. Pete needs to get talent on the team to continue his success...and Schneider failed from 2013-2016 to provide that to Pete. He has done average the last 3 drafts....but his complete stinkers put the team in the position it is in now. Terrible replenishment of talent through the draft.

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Both are true. Thats is how drafts are measured. Specifically firsst round picks. We havent given a second contract to any of or first round draft picks since Earl Thomas. Thats a horrendous stretch. The trades have been total failures as well.

I haven't looked at the numbers cause I'm not a stat guy but just assuming your right that the Hawks don't give second contracts why do you think that is? It's because of the salary cap...The Hawks have several big contracts at key positions with key leadership players... Also players that don't buy into the program get tossed.. sometimes because of the salary cap the Hawks have to fill holes in FA they don't have the cap space to have tier one FA so they have to be patient and find the right players like Dunlap or mortgage the future drafts but when you have a GM who goes into the draft with 4 picks and comes out of the draft with 11 picks you can do that kind of stuff...


LTH

Like anything else its various reasons. Okung likely injury history? Irvin likely not enough money to go around but he didn't really pan out as a pass rusher. The Harvin trades and Graham trades didnt really pan out. Drafting interior OL.

The most recent picks are the most troubling. Malik McDowell was catastrophic. The pick itself was bad enough but when you look at the list of players we could have and didn't draft it compounds. Not to mention then knee jerking the trade for Richardson.

The Penny draft was no better itself. Even if Penny was a starter drafting RB's that high is bad business based on career length, second contracts etc. Even if you dot believe that and you insist on drafting a RB you shouldn't miss on the RB in that draft.

Collier draft. Same. The issues with these 3 drafts in particular is there is a domino affect of bad decisions tied to them. The players we didn't take at positions of need that we end up mortgaging the future to supplement and its coming time to pay the piper.

Most if not all of this I put on JS.

 

[Subzero717]

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/
This link has a full chart relating to draft hit rates since 2015

A couple things I noticed

Hit Rate
Hawks #11
Some teams with higher hit rate...Miami, Cincinnati, WFT all perennial losers

Success Rate
Hawks #7
With the #1 team being the WFT. No playoffs and a 5-7 record this year

% On Team
Hawks #14
Some teams below the Hawks...Cards, Rams, Packers, Saints, 9er’s, Vikings, Patriots, and Chiefs

2018 Playing Time
Didn’t count the spots but the Hawks were near the bottom of this metric yet they are ahead of..
Packers, Ravens, Rams and Patriots

From what I see within this chart the talk of John and Pete underperforming with the draft is way off.

No offense but this article goes from 2015 to middle of 2018.

 

[Subzero717]

What’s being overlooked is the crap drafting and free Pass John Schneider gets. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts....only two players still on the team. Jaran Reed and Tyler Lockett. That is pathetic. Pete needs to get talent on the team to continue his success...and Schneider failed from 2013-2016 to provide that to Pete. He has done average the last 3 drafts....but his complete stinkers put the team in the position it is in now. Terrible replenishment of talent through the draft.

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Both are true. Thats is how drafts are measured. Specifically firsst round picks. We havent given a second contract to any of or first round draft picks since Earl Thomas. Thats a horrendous stretch. The trades have been total failures as well.

I haven't looked at the numbers cause I'm not a stat guy but just assuming your right that the Hawks don't give second contracts why do you think that is? It's because of the salary cap...The Hawks have several big contracts at key positions with key leadership players... Also players that don't buy into the program get tossed.. sometimes because of the salary cap the Hawks have to fill holes in FA they don't have the cap space to have tier one FA so they have to be patient and find the right players like Dunlap or mortgage the future drafts but when you have a GM who goes into the draft with 4 picks and comes out of the draft with 11 picks you can do that kind of stuff...


LTH

FYI I love Carroll. I believe he is easily a top 5 coach and I can make the argument he is #2 only behind BB and there is a gap between him and #3. If he does have flaws I think he is loyal to a fault with his assistants and the FO needs a shake up but for whatever reason that hasnt happened yet. There was an exodus of players, he overhauled the coaching staff but for whatever reason the FO its status quo.

 

[ludakrishna]

Claiming the drafts were horrible because only 2 players remain ignores all of the other factors involved. Some players were offered more money elsewhere or traded. I would be much more critical of the trade deals

Both are true. Thats is how drafts are measured. Specifically firsst round picks. We havent given a second contract to any of or first round draft picks since Earl Thomas. Thats a horrendous stretch. The trades have been total failures as well.

I haven't looked at the numbers cause I'm not a stat guy but just assuming your right that the Hawks don't give second contracts why do you think that is? It's because of the salary cap...The Hawks have several big contracts at key positions with key leadership players... Also players that don't buy into the program get tossed.. sometimes because of the salary cap the Hawks have to fill holes in FA they don't have the cap space to have tier one FA so they have to be patient and find the right players like Dunlap or mortgage the future drafts but when you have a GM who goes into the draft with 4 picks and comes out of the draft with 11 picks you can do that kind of stuff...


LTH

Like anything else its various reasons. Okung likely injury history? Irvin likely not enough money to go around but he didn't really pan out as a pass rusher. The Harvin trades and Graham trades didnt really pan out. Drafting interior OL.

The most recent picks are the most troubling. Malik McDowell was catastrophic. The pick itself was bad enough but when you look at the list of players we could have and didn't draft it compounds. Not to mention then knee jerking the trade for Richardson.

The Penny draft was no better itself. Even if Penny was a starter drafting RB's that high is bad business based on career length, second contracts etc. Even if you dot believe that and you insist on drafting a RB you shouldn't miss on the RB in that draft.

Collier draft. Same. The issues with these 3 drafts in particular is there is a domino affect of bad decisions tied to them. The players we didn't take at positions of need that we end up mortgaging the future to supplement and its coming time to pay the piper.

Most if not all of this I put on JS.

Add 2020 onto it. Darrell Taylor has yet to step foot onto the field and we drafted an injured commodity

 

[pittpnthrs]

The last 10 seasons are the proof I provide to you that his book has been anything but repetitive. Every season he has faced a major hurdle and or change to the overall program. And he managed to adapt enough to put together a winning era like nothing this city has seen.

This will be the 6th season with that same repetitive conclusion (not counting the season they didnt even make the playoffs, but you get the jest). Only 5 more years with that book on the nightstand.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Even the best coach of our generation went a decade without a SB win, and he is considered one of the best game planners with one of the best QBs.

The Hawks are going on 6 years with a coach who is considered a terrible game planner. Not real confidence inspiring.

 

[LTH]

The NFL is nothing like reading the same book over and over. Each season is unique in every way for every player, coach and staff. Every single game no matter how good the team or opponent is a contest, there are no predetermined winners.

Terrible coaches have won games and below average players have won games, emotion has helped many underdogs take it all. For you to claim Pete will never win a SB again is nothing but your opinion and doesn’t change the actual probability of it happening. My opinion is that with a proven winning coach and proven QB a team can come together and win 3-4 games against anyone.

The last 10 seasons are the proof I provide to you that his book has been anything but repetitive. Every season he has faced a major hurdle and or change to the overall program. And he managed to adapt enough to put together a winning era like nothing this city has seen.

Football is a game overcoming adversity and constant adjustment... I agree with you wholeheartedly...no question about it...


LTH

 

[Flyingsquad23]

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/
This link has a full chart relating to draft hit rates since 2015

A couple things I noticed

Hit Rate
Hawks #11
Some teams with higher hit rate...Miami, Cincinnati, WFT all perennial losers

Success Rate
Hawks #7
With the #1 team being the WFT. No playoffs and a 5-7 record this year

% On Team
Hawks #14
Some teams below the Hawks...Cards, Rams, Packers, Saints, 9er’s, Vikings, Patriots, and Chiefs

2018 Playing Time
Didn’t count the spots but the Hawks were near the bottom of this metric yet they are ahead of..
Packers, Ravens, Rams and Patriots

From what I see within this chart the talk of John and Pete underperforming with the draft is way off.

No offense but this article goes from 2015 to middle of 2018.

None taken, 2015-2018 covers 4 drafts in the post LOB draft era that people are claiming to be terrible. The 2019 draft has been discussed 8 Guys from that draft played and 6 of them significantly(one of them an absolute beast). The 2020 draft has seen 6 of the 8 play and contribute. So I’m not sure what your point is.