The next two games are as close to must wins as we can get

[SoulfishHawk]

Well, when we are sitting at 10-6, we'll see.

 

[Hawks46]

Shoot, 10-6 is pretty damn good, considering they started out 2-4.

A 10-6 record will not get us into the Post Season....unless Arizona "goes in the toilet".

Arizona is only projected to win 10 games right now. They play a difficult closing schedule:
@ Seattle - 64% chance they lose
vs Cincinnati - coin flip game
@ St. Louis - coin flip game
vs Minnesota - heavily favored, but still a tough game on paper
@ Philadelphia - coin flip game
vs Green Bay - coin flip game
vs Seattle - coin flip game

it's not too hard to imagine Arizona losing four or five of those games.

This is really what it comes down to, right here. We have to look at what the lead dog in the division is facing. No matter how you look at it, we really need to sweep AZ to get to the playoffs, at least and control our own destiny. If we hang two losses on AZ, then they only need to lose two out of those remaining games to be 10-6. That means we could lose two games, and still win the division due to the H2H tiebreaker. This gives us the most margin of error.

Obviously, the team has to fix some stuff and play consistently, and against good teams. Thing is, Dallas isn't a good team right now, so this is one we need to win. We need to win all the easy and obvious games, and sweep AZ. Another really big step would be to hang a loss on Minnesota. That gives us an edge in any Wildcard race. So, if we win in Dallas, we're .500 and going into the bye. After that we are looking at:

Arizona
San Fransisco
Pittsburgh
@ Minnesota
@Baltimore
Cleveland
Rams
@ Cardinals.

So, I honestly think we beat Dallas fairly easily. That said, this next stretch after the bye really tells us where we are going. If we beat AZ and STL, we're on a really good streak. We can afford to lose to Pitt, but it's at home. Then the big game will be @Minny. We really need that one to keep ahead in the WC race. Baltimore isn't the team anyone thought they were, but it's still back to back road games with a lot of travel. Then we get a break with the Browns and Rams at home, both of which should be comfortable wins. Then the final game vs. the Cards.

So, the easy games: SF, Browns, Rams. Those are the ultimate gimmes. That puts us at 7 wins (assuming a win at Dallas). This is where we have to sweep AZ because then we'd be at 9 wins, and facing @ Minn, @ Ravens, and Pitt at home. Ravens is a very winnable game, Minny is going to be close as well as Pitt.

So, sweep AZ, win the easy/winnable games and the two marginal games we can still afford to lose. That's how it has to shake down.

 

[NJlargent]

Shoot, 10-6 is pretty damn good, considering they started out 2-4.

A 10-6 record will not get us into the Post Season....unless Arizona "goes in the toilet".

Disagree. Atlanta or Carolina get in as the WC with the other being division champ. Who in the NFC Least gets in as a WC? Likely no one. I don't see Minny getting to 10-6 (GB wins the division of course). If they do and one of those Ws is against the Hawks, that's a different story.

This is exactly my thoughts too. However, I also think Atlanta is a very soft 6-1 and would not be surprised if they finish with 10 wins and falter.

I think the winner of the NFC West will be the 3 seed and the 2nd place finisher will be the 6 seed. (GB 1, Car 2 and Atl 5). So assuming we are not pretenders, we are either home or away opening round again Arizona. 3 seed is better because, besides playing at home, we duck Lambeau another week.

That being said, let's win the next 2 as our primary focus. Lose to Dallas and we are pretenders.

 

[Uncle Si]

I think 10 wins is enough...

I think Atlanta will falter, as well as the Vikings. The Vikings schedule after this week gets brutal, and I don't think they've looked all that convincing. Both of the Wild Cards won't need 10 wins this year.

That said, the Hawks pretty much need these next 2, plus the win at MN.

 

[Largent80]

It all boils down to WIN THIS WEEK. Then go about worrying about the future.

 

[seahawkfreak]

I think 10-6 is a more realistic record as well. If it gets us into the playoffs, 6-2 in second half of the season would be positive. I think we lose at least one game to Arizona, home or away. Stealers not a gimme either.

I really want to believe we can run the table but the Oline is so terrible that it seems impossible that at least a couple teams don't take advantage of it.

 

[Tical21]

I don't want to be overly critical, but I almost made a post this week about how much I hate the overuse of "must win." To me, there is a huge difference between "must win" and "important," and that line has seemingly vanished over the past few years. To the poster's credit, he did say that they are "close" to "must wins." A must-win game strictly implies that a team has zero chance of winning a championship without winning the game being referred to. We probably lost a game or two last year that folks referred to as "must-win," and still played in the Super Bowl.

In fact, I think we still make the playoffs if we lose one of these next two games. That said, yes, they are VERY important.

 

[hawknation2015]

I don't want to be overly critical, but I almost made a post this week about how much I hate the overuse of "must win." To me, there is a huge difference between "must win" and "important," and that line has seemingly vanished over the past few years. To the poster's credit, he did say that they are "close" to "must wins." A must-win game strictly implies that a team has zero chance of winning a championship without winning the game being referred to. We probably lost a game or two last year that folks referred to as "must-win," and still played in the Super Bowl.

In fact, I think we still make the playoffs if we lose one of these next two games. That said, yes, they are VERY important.

True, I remember people calling the game @ Kansas City last year a "must win." We ended up losing our 4th game of the season and this board turned all nihilistic and doom and gloom. Then the team preceded to win their next eight games in a row to get us back to the Super Bowl. You just can never count this team out until the fat lady sings.

 

[NOLAHawk]

I'm afraid of the cards. Not because they are talented with a coach that's as good at what he does as others are at what they do, I'm afraid for us. I was at clink to see the cards end our home streak, and just saw us take every opportunity to leave it on the field. We were a team of destiny then, and we choked, now we are a team of will. I just don't want to see us try to lose. I'm excited for the Dallas game. If we establish our dominance then we've learned to win again.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Dear OP,

Every game is a must win. In addition to that you can't predict what other teams will do in the future. All games are weighted the same.

 

[jammerhawk]

ITS:

Of course you are right but divisional and conference game have more weight when calculating playoff implications.

Beating Dallas will be very important as we have had conference losses to StL, GB, and Car, of course there is non -conference loss to Cincie but it hurts less in terms of conference playoff implication than the conference losses or the divisional losses.

 

[Cartire]

The way I see it...

We always play games close against the Rams in St. Louis. They are notably better this year. We took them into OT with our SS out.

We lost to the Packer in Lambeau. We lead in the 4th.

We lost to Cincinnati at their house.

We lost to Carolina, while leading late into the 4th.

Oh, btw, the last 3 teams are all undefeated right now. They're not chumps.


We're about to go on a classic, Russell Wilson-led run. Orchestrated by Pete Carroll. Crafted by John Schneider. The schedule just opened up (easiest remaining schedule), and its go time.

 

[hawknation2015]

The way I see it...

We always play games close against the Rams in St. Louis. They are notably better this year. We took them into OT with our SS out.

We lost to the Packer in Lambeau. We lead in the 4th.

We lost to Cincinnati at their house.

We lost to Carolina, while leading late into the 4th.

Oh, btw, the last 3 teams are all undefeated right now. They're not chumps.


We're about to go on a classic, Russell Wilson-and-BEAST MODE-led run. Orchestrated by Pete Carroll. Crafted by John Schneider. The schedule just opened up (easiest remaining schedule), and its go time.

FIFY

 

[kf3339]

We can only at most afford one more loss, or the playoffs are pretty much out of reach. So the above statement that we must go 1-0 each week from here on out is pretty much spot on.

You don't think you reach the WC with 10-6?

Actually, no I don't. The reason is there have been too many times where teams with that record miss the WC for the playoffs in any given year. It's not impossible, but just too unrealistic to me considering all things being equal.

Again, I just think that the team needs to have the mindset that they can't afford to give up any more than one loss at this point to assure a spot. I can certainly understand though how others might not see it that way.

The most important thing is for the team to have the mentality that every quarter the scoreboard is 0-0 in each game no matter the actual score. And for the love of God no more prevent defense and especially "Prevent Offense" again. That type of mentality just makes me sick.

 

[Cartire]

We can only at most afford one more loss, or the playoffs are pretty much out of reach. So the above statement that we must go 1-0 each week from here on out is pretty much spot on.

You don't think you reach the WC with 10-6?

Actually, no I don't. The reason is there have been too many times where teams with that record miss the WC for the playoffs in any given year. It's not impossible, but just too unrealistic to me considering all things being equal.

Again, I just think that the team needs to have the mindset that they can't afford to give up any more than one loss at this point to assure a spot. I can certainly understand though how others might not see it that way.

The most important thing is for the team to have the mentality that every quarter the scoreboard is 0-0 in each game no matter the actual score. And for the love of God no more prevent defense and especially "Prevent Offense" again. That type of mentality just makes me sick.

All things being equal, this year is far different then most years. Check the division standings in the NFC. 10-6 WILL be a wildcard.

 

[kf3339]

We can only at most afford one more loss, or the playoffs are pretty much out of reach. So the above statement that we must go 1-0 each week from here on out is pretty much spot on.

You don't think you reach the WC with 10-6?

Actually, no I don't. The reason is there have been too many times where teams with that record miss the WC for the playoffs in any given year. It's not impossible, but just too unrealistic to me considering all things being equal.

Again, I just think that the team needs to have the mindset that they can't afford to give up any more than one loss at this point to assure a spot. I can certainly understand though how others might not see it that way.

The most important thing is for the team to have the mentality that every quarter the scoreboard is 0-0 in each game no matter the actual score. And for the love of God no more prevent defense and especially "Prevent Offense" again. That type of mentality just makes me sick.

All things being equal, this year is far different then most years. Check the division standings in the NFC. 10-6 WILL be a wildcard.

I have and we will see....

 

[byau]

By dropping 4 games, a lot of games are must wins now. Our margin of error is very small.

Agreed.

Depends a bit on how the Rams, Cardinals, Vikings, and Falcons do.

But since you will likely want 11-5 or better just to get into the playoffs, and that certainly is the minimum goal, each game seems to be a must-win at this point. Very little margin for error.

 

[ZagHawk]

The only way every game left was not a "Must Win" was if the Seahawks played the Cardinals in week 16 vs 17. Won every game from now and then. Making them have a sweep over the Cards and with a 11-4 record getting ready to face a Rams with hopefully a 9-6 record. Then that game would be okay to lose at that point.

Sadly the Hawks are pretty far back with 4 losses and outside of losing only one more game (preferably not the Rams or Cards), they are going to need some help to get to the playoffs.

 

[hawxfreak]

The only way I see us gettin in at 10/6 is if the rams go 9/7 and the cards go 10/6 and we go 10/6 and beat em twice

 

[SoCalSeahawk]

Hard to argue against, although I'd argue that our losses weren't that unpredictable in retrospect. Hell, we've lost to some of the best teams in the league, largely in their houses. So disappointing, yes, but hardly unexpected we'd drop some of those. The Carolina loss, in our house, was the worst one IMHO. Can't afford to lose to a rival on your home turf. The Cinci game was the closest to a throwaway on our sched, being a non-conf road game, but still winnable and we blew it.

Thankfully, we have almost the whole month off to R & R, with a winnable Dallas game this Sunday. Hopefully, we can generate some momentum come Nov/Dec. We get 5 of 8 at home down the stretch, with most of our most challenging opponents in the rear view mirror. If the team maintains the focus they showed in SF the rest of the year, they'll be fine.

But yeah, not many more games we can afford to lose left. 4 Div games left IIRC, and a couple of tough looking AFC North trips. I have confidence still, but yeah, we're nearly in playoff atmosphere from here on out.

Frankly, a road playoff game doesn't scare me half as much as it did 5 years ago. I think they've proven they can rise to the occasion. Not preferable, of course, but we've proven the past couple of seasons that we can be competitive anywhere, any time. With 4 losses already, HFA throughout is looking more and more in jeopardy, but the Div crown is still very much within reach.

GO HAWKS!!!

Sutz,

I agree that Carolina was the one that would've really put a different outlook on the season had the Seahawks not ran out of gas, but in retrospect that was the easiest loss to project: Between October 5-22, the Seahawks played four games. The third game of that set was against Carolina. In that same time span Carolina played one game, the one in Seattle. They were rested and had forever to focus on just the Seahawks. Add in that their first four games were basically pillow fights and you could easily predict that they would have a lot more juice on the finish against the us.

But in the end nobody remembers the circumstances, only the results.