The myth of overpaying for a QB

[seedhawk]

Finally dawned on me how to settle this. Trade RW to Cleveland for 1 year only. Lets see how he does. Plop Manziel in our locker room and see what happens. Could totally revive hard knocks!

 

[kearly]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

As said before, 15% is the new 10%. ALL TEAMS are paying their QBs more today than they used to, because today's league is much more QB driven than it was in 1994 or 2004. If we revisit this cap percentage trend in 10 years I guarantee it will look very different. And MOST QBs who won SBs were on 2nd deals that were not cheap. Several of them were top 5 by AYP when they won.

Our receivers (other than Richardson and to a lesser extend Baldwin) are smaller and have struggled against man / press coverages. Beating man coverage is all about winning matchups. Thankfully Seattle has added some mismatch makers this offseason, and Richardson looked like he was on his way before his injury.

Wilson has some areas to improve too, but I think the lack of a security blanket hurt his numbers last year despite stepping up and showing real signs of progress.

Wilson was the league's #1 rated passer last year when holding the ball less than 2.5 seconds. Richardson made an immediate impact there. The problem was that if a play wasn't open in 2.5 seconds, our receivers struggled to work their way open on scramble drills. Wilson's passer rating when holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds was only in the mid-70s. The security blanket just wasn't there for Wilson last season. Which is why I think the addition of Graham and Lockett has the potential to be a pretty big deal.

 

[kearly]

I got to thinking the other day about the way we think of quarterback wins. Watching Felix brought this about. We have all heard that the quarterback's most important job is to "win". But this is also the pitchers most important job. But geez, the roster makes a dang huge difference, doesn't it? We can't blame Felix for his wins total. But we give quarterbacks like Russell a ton of credit for being a winner and tend not to give Luck as much credit, especially for the playoffs. It is quite clear though that the Seahawks have a much better overall roster. There's certainly something to being a "winner", but I wonder how much of it is a chicken/egg argument.

It's a fair discussion.

There are a lot of differences. Felix isn't credited with a win even if his team wins if he didn't pitch 5 innings or didn't leave the game with a lead or he did leave the game with a lead after 5 innings but that lead was temporarily lost before being regained. Pitcher-Wins in baseball are a legitimately silly stat due to a host of antiquated and arbitrary rules that cloud any possible meaning the stat could have.

Pitchers also don't possess a lot of control over what happens. They can control strikeouts, walks, and to a degree- groundballs. But most ABs result in a ball hit into play and once it is, the rest is random chance. The difference between an elite pitcher and a bad one is a very small difference in the number of balls that pitcher allows to be put in play. It's also why even bad pitchers can play an entire season and finish with a stellar ERA, since so much of pitching is luck based.

By comparison, a QB has near complete control over the game when he is one the field. He can call the plays, he can audible, he can control the pace. He can do things that help his defense. He can help his team win toxic differential. He can instill leadership. He can make his teammates better. He can get dudes standing on the sideline to believe they will win even when down big.

There is still some luck involved and some dependance on defense. But unlike baseball, elite QBs tend to be winners very consistently, and if they aren't, it's because the team around them is a flaming trainwreck.

There are some QBs who win despite poor performance. Tim Tebow, etc. I'm not 100% comfortable with praising a QB just because he's a 'winner' for that reason.

That said, I do think certain QBs have a 'winner' gene and Wilson certainly has it. Seattle plays in a lot of close games and Wilson's win percentage in close games is one of the best in NFL history. And as long as Seattle is built around the run and trading points for clock defensively at the end of games, we'll continue to see close games almost every week. Therefore, having a QB with Wilson's mental toughness, leadership, clutch ability and ability to rally has added value for a team like Seattle.

The NFCCG really said it all to me. How many QBs in NFL history won a game that big against an opponent that good while playing the worst game of their entire career? WIlson is not a perfect QB, but his mental toughness is without peer.

 

[RolandDeschain]

The NFCCG really said it all to me. How many QBs in NFL history won a game that big against an opponent that good while playing the worst game of their entire career? WIlson is not a perfect QB, but his mental toughness is without peer.

Yeah, let's see how many other QBs can throw four picks and still let it go mentally to finish the 4th quarter and overtime how Wilson did. If someone can point out another QB that did, in a game where the stakes were that high to boot, and I'll be impressed.

 

[WilsonMVP]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

Our running game is average....its because of Wilson that are running game is #1. If you took Wilsons rushes out of the equation and gave him the yardage of a stereotypical QB for rushing how would our rush game look then.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Wilson pretty much destroys Roethlisberger when you compare their first 3 years.

Wilson 72 TD's 26 interceptions
Roethlisberger 52 TD's 43 interceptions
Wilson 1877 Rushing Yards
Roethlisberger 311 rushing yards

Can I ask why people say stats don't tell the whole story when they are talking about someone with higher stats than Wilson, but when its about proving he's better than someone else they use stats?

You have to take attempts into consideration like with Andrew Luck.

Luck has 561 more passing attempts than Wilson does. Of course he is going to have more yardage and prob more TDs..only an idiot would argue otherwise.

Wilson has averaged about 417 attempts passing per season now so that would be about the equiv of Luck having 21 more games up on Wilson if you go by Wilsons passing attempts per game.

Big Ben according to ESPN stats didnt even play in 7 games his first 3 seasons and had 1032 attempts. Wilson has 1252 through 3 years but if you do their avg per games played it would be around 25-26 per game for both of them.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

As said before, 15% is the new 10%. ALL TEAMS are paying their QBs more today than they used to, because today's league is much more QB driven than it was in 1994 or 2004. If we revisit this cap percentage trend in 10 years I guarantee it will look very different. And MOST QBs who won SBs were on 2nd deals that were not cheap. Several of them were top 5 by AYP when they won.

Our receivers (other than Richardson and to a lesser extend Baldwin) are smaller and have struggled against man / press coverages. Beating man coverage is all about winning matchups. Thankfully Seattle has added some mismatch makers this offseason, and Richardson looked like he was on his way before his injury.

Wilson has some areas to improve too, but I think the lack of a security blanket hurt his numbers last year despite stepping up and showing real signs of progress.

Wilson was the league's #1 rated passer last year when holding the ball less than 2.5 seconds. Richardson made an immediate impact there. The problem was that if a play wasn't open in 2.5 seconds, our receivers struggled to work their way open on scramble drills. Wilson's passer rating when holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds was only in the mid-70s. The security blanket just wasn't there for Wilson last season. Which is why I think the addition of Graham and Lockett has the potential to be a pretty big deal.

How about Lack of WR/TE and Oline Continuity too...Maybe the TE one isnt fair but last year he didnt have Miller for like half a season and Mccoy never even played. Then there is the Rice and Harvin situations. I feel like we have had an ever changing oline too for long stretches

 

[Hawkpower]

The NFCCG really said it all to me. How many QBs in NFL history won a game that big against an opponent that good while playing the worst game of their entire career? WIlson is not a perfect QB, but his mental toughness is without peer.

Yeah, let's see how many other QBs can throw four picks and still let it go mentally to finish the 4th quarter and overtime how Wilson did. If someone can point out another QB that did, in a game where the stakes were that high to boot, and I'll be impressed.

Not many QB's throw 4 picks and are still fortunate enough to not only still be playing in the game, but still have the game close enough to come back in the first place!!

 

[Hawkpower]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

Our running game is average....its because of Wilson that are running game is #1. If you took Wilsons rushes out of the equation and gave him the yardage of a stereotypical QB for rushing how would our rush game look then.

Our running game is average?

Lynch being ranked the 8th best player in the NFL the other day must have been a mirage

 

[Marvin49]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

Our running game is average....its because of Wilson that are running game is #1. If you took Wilsons rushes out of the equation and gave him the yardage of a stereotypical QB for rushing how would our rush game look then.

Our running game is average?

Lynch being ranked the 8th best player in the NFL the other day must have been a mirage

yeah....as an opposing fan, saying Seattle only has a run game because of Wilson is ludicrous. The player I fear more than any other is Lynch, not Wilson. That's not so much a slight on Wilson as it is a compliment to Marshawn.

 

[WilsonMVP]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

Our running game is average....its because of Wilson that are running game is #1. If you took Wilsons rushes out of the equation and gave him the yardage of a stereotypical QB for rushing how would our rush game look then.

Our running game is average?

Lynch being ranked the 8th best player in the NFL the other day must have been a mirage

In terms of how much help Wilson gets not including himself the run game is NOT Elite. Lynch is very good but if you take out Wilsons rushing yards we are the 11th team in rushing yards. Heck Wilson was only 457 yards behind Lynch and hes a QB. Wilson was 16th in the league in rushing yards and tied 17th for Rushing TDs.That means while playing QB he is better than half the starting RBs in the league and you want to tell me that Lynch carries this offense and Wilson?

People act like Wilson contributes 2500 or so yards to the offense and has like 15 TDs and is being carried to superbowls. Lynch is very good...one of the best RBs in the league, but Wilson isnt being carried by him. If you want to see an entire team and offense being carried by a RB go watch highlights of the 2012 Vikings when AP ran for over 2000 yards.

 

[scutterhawk]

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

No, you just contradicted the entire argument. The argument is that if you pay a QB a huge amount of money you can't afford to field a good team.

The fact you just admitted those players have good teams just proved my point. Paying them big bucks doesn't mean you can't win.

You seem to be making the mistake of defining a QB by his salary. If he doesn't make his team win, he's either not elite or he's saddled with a crap front office that can't build a team around him.

Since I've just shown you that good FO's can and DO build good teams around QB's whom they pay a butt ton of money to, it's irrelevant how many QB's you point to that aren't on winning teams. The argument is that the very act of making RW the highest paid player on the team will wreck the Seahawks, that's he's "not worth more than the team".

When the truth is, actually, he IS.

Those teams above didn't "have good teams" until they signed their elite QB. Whether they went on to pay those players a butt ton of money or not, it didn't suddenly stop them from "having a good team".

Having an elite QB is what MADE THEM A GOOD TEAM.

Having an elite QB is NOT what makes a good team. Sure, they are great building blocks, but other pieces are needed in order for the team to be successful. The fact is when you sign a QB to a large contract you lose some flexibility, and you have to make some painful decisions to keep "your guy". Only 5 of the top 10 paid QB's had a winning record this season, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement. In the end the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL (Brady), and Wilson, one of the lowest paid starting QB's were battling for the Lombardi. Brady's relatively low salary this season allowed the Patriots to go out and sign Brandon Browner, and Darrelle Revis. The end result was a revamped defense, and a balanced team that ended up winning the Super Bowl.

Wilson is ultimately not an elite QB. He's a good QB that makes smart decisions. He has a unique skillset, but he is also very limited in critical areas in the passing game. He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think. This team, unlike the Broncos, Packers, etc does not have their identity wrapped in their QB, or their passing game. We are a team that is famous for defense, and a running game that will grind opponents down. Wilson, while an important component was not the defining identity of the Seahawks.

Not elite?, he has a unique skillset, that fits the Seahawks Offensive scheme, almost perfectly, and he's been hamstrung with middle of the road Receivers, and an O-line that's designed to fit the Run Game, but leaves a gigantic chasm when it comes to any kind of passing game.
Almost all these other "Elite Quarterbacks" in the league would be pedestrian if they had to play behind the leaking O-line that Wilson has had to endure. and because of that, Wilson isn't just "A Good Quarterback", it's his unique abilities that makes him "Elite"
The Seahawks are "Run First" Offense out of necessity, That's what Tom Cable has been hired to do, but to marginalize what Wilson brings to the Seahawks organization by calling him good, but not elite?, sorry, but that's just messed up.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

There's been a myth going on around here that Russell Wilson getting a huge contract would hurt the team because they couldn't sign other players. I thought now would be a good time to point out that the facts don't back that claim. Quite the opposite in fact.

Not going to concern myself with QB's who just recently got paid. I'm looking at the highest paid QB's who've played for a few years since their big payday. What did getting paid so much do to their teams chances to win?

Peyton Manning. Manning has always been one of the most highly paid QB's in the league. What did paying hims so much get the Colts and Broncos in return? In the 10 years before drafting Manning, the Colts were in the playoffs 2 years, going 2-2. With Manning at the helm, the Colts went to the playoffs 11 of the next 13 years with Manning. After signing him to a $98M contract, they never missed the playoffs again. The went 1-1 in Super Bowl appearances. when he got to Denver, they had been to the playoffs once in 6 years. Since Manning arrived, they've been to the playoffs all three years, going 2-3 with one Super Bowl ass whooping.

Paying Manning a butt ton of money spelled huge success for both franchises.

Tom Brady. Brady's success with the Pats early on doesn't count as he wasn't being highly paid. Even after all those rings and MVP honors, he wasn't being paid an elite QB salary. Not until 2010 did he finally get a big payday. What happened then? Over the next 4 years, the Pats went to the playoffs every single year, going 7-3 and went 1-1 in two Super Bowl appearances. In the 4 years prior, when Brady wasn't getting top dollar, they went to the playoffs 3 of 4 years, going 2-3 with 1 Super Bowl loss. In Brady's first four years, under a 6th round contract for the most part, the Patriots went to the playoffs 2 out of those 4 years, going 6-0 with 2 Super Bowl wins.

Paying Brady big bucks did nothing to stop the Patriots winning ways.

Aaron Rodgers. In 2013 Rodgers became the highest paid player in the NFL. Did it hamstring the Packers? No. they've been a perennial playoff team since 1993. Whle paying Rodgers a huge chunk of their salary cap the Packers still went to the playoffs both years, going 1-2 and coming within a miracle win by Seattle of being in the Super Bowl.

And prior to Rodgers, the Packers were paying Bret Favre. In 2001 Favre became the first $100 Million Dollar Man. How did the Packers do after they "wrecked their cap" as some would argue, paying Favre so much money they "couldn't afford to keep their best players"? They went to the playoffs 5 of the next 7 years, going 3-5, coming within an overtime loss of the Super Bowl.

Paying any ole QB a butt ton of money can crush a franchise if the QB's play isn't worth elite money. But paying elite QB's a butt ton of money doesn't crush a franchise, it guarantees years of success.

Reposted my original post. Why? Because NOWHERE do I define a QB's value by whether or not he wins a super bowl. That's an arbitrary and frankly STUPID measure of a franchise's success. Only ONE QB can win the SB in any given season. ONE.

We measure success in a franchise by CONSISTENTLY MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

Anything can happen after that. It's a crap shoot. So this latest argument that compares Super Bowl wins to contract % is totally meaningless. The Packers are perennial playoff contenders for twenty years having the highest paid player in football. The Colts were and now Denver is.

The teams that are perennial cellar dwellers. They don't.

 

[camdawg]

There is no way on any planet that Wilson is or has been better than Roethilsberger these last three years. Come on.

If you restricted your argument to last season, you would be right, no question about that. Ben's 2014 season was outstanding. And it wasn't just compiling stats by throwing a lot, a la Matt Stafford. 32 TDs to 9 picks. 8.1 yards per pass. In Ben's eleventh season, it was by far his best.

But shouldn't an eleventh year guy, be better than a third year guy? And isn't it a good sign that Russ was way better his first few seasons, than Ben was?

Now....take a look at Ben's 2012 and 2013 seasons, and compare them to Russell's. Much closer than you thought, right? And that's just looking at the passing numbers. When you add in the rushing numbers, and the playoff success, you can EASILY make a case for Russell being the better QB during the two seasons. Yes, Ben threw for more yards in 2013, but that was Stafford style stat compiling. His per pass average was pretty much a yard lower than Russell. He threw fourteen picks to only nine for Russell. Only two more TDs on 180 more throws. And that's with Russell playing against significantly tougher defenses than Ben faced.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Put bluntly, do you want to be Buffalo 2014? Great defense that barely trailed Seattle's DVOA all year, multiple offensive weapons, no QB. Was Buffalo in a division as tough as ours? No.

You pay Wilson. Don't be stupid.