The myth of overpaying for a QB

[Marvin49]

So the fact that in the past 16 years, only one of the 5-highest paid quarterbacks in any given season won the Super Bowl is complete coincidence?

You should read up on how to tell when correlation and causation are linked, and when they're not.

Also, way to cover both sides of the argument with your reply just above this, Tical. They pay Russell, you win. They let him go, you win. Very solid.

Except that I personally would take 9 consecutive losing seasons and trade that for one championship. None, not one, not even one. Not one QB has made over 13% of their team's cap and won a Super Bowl. Not even one. There isn't even an exception to the rule ANYWHERE. Even with the strictest of rules, there should be ONE exception. One. Is 20 years not a big enough sample size? Correlation and causation huh. Okay ace.

Just for the sake of argument and without a dog in this fight...

...how many QBs have taken up over 13% of their cap and who were they?

I kinda think that's a red herring because Average Salary and cap hit are different things. Additionally, the cap itself is moving dramatically so those salaries take up less and less of a % of the cap.

You may be right that no team has won with over 13% dedicated to a QB, but what is really your other option? Let him walk? Good luck with that.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Letting him walk is not an option, period. Top tier QB's, who win with consistency like Wilson are not a dime a dozen. Plenty of people in this town act like they can just throw TJack or someone else back there and they'll still win playoff games etc. Nope

 

[Marvin49]

Letting him walk is not an option, period. Top tier QB's, who win with consistency like Wilson are not a dime a dozen. Plenty of people in this town act like they can just throw TJack or someone else back there and they'll still win playoff games etc. Nope

That's kinda what I'm sayin.

I kinda wonder what is gonna happen when Marshawn leaves and that play action threat isn't what it once was, but letting Wilson walk because you don't want to pay him is a good way to lose your job.

This is simply the way it works. If you are lucky enough to get a player who plays as well as Wilson has early on and under the CBA rules, consider yourself REALLY lucky. Eventually tho...you can't keep everyone on small salaries. The Cap is built to beat you and create parity.

You have enjoyed that time when you could get away with the biggest bargain in the NFL...but that time is up. No use arguing about it. You pay him.

If you don't, you may regret it for DECADES.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And he has done what he has done with a pretty bad O-Line and an average at best WR core.

 

[kearly]

http://overthecap.com/super-bowl-titles-high-salary-quarterbacks/

Good post Hawks46. But I will say, I think that article is dogshit. First, it claims that only 4 QBs won after signing extensions, and that is incredibly misleading if not outright incorrect. 15 out of 22 championships were won by QBs not playing on their first contract.

Secondly, the article fails to mention a very important detail. It was only a few years ago that paying QBs 15+% was totally unheard of. Paying a QB 15% of your cap is something that has only become common in the last three years or so. So of course there's never been a QB to win it over 13.1%. Until just very recently, there were zero NFL QBs making 15+%.

And why are QBs seeing a rise in %? Because the NFL today is much more of a QB driven league than it was in 1994 or 2004. 2013 broke records for scoring and offense. And 2014 broke those records again.

The way that ALL QBs are getting paid, it won't be long before this 13% stat ends up becoming irrelevant and behind the times.

 

[Marvin49]

http://overthecap.com/super-bowl-titles-high-salary-quarterbacks/

Good post Hawks46. But I will say, I think that article is dogshit. First, it claims that only 4 QBs won after signing extensions, and that is incredibly misleading if not outright incorrect. 15 out of 22 championships were won by QBs not playing on their first contract.

Secondly, the article fails to mention a very important detail. It was only a few years ago that paying QBs 15+% was totally unheard of. Paying a QB 15% of your cap is something that has only become common in the last three years or so. So of course there's never been a QB to win it over 13.1%. Until just very recently, there were zero NFL QBs making 15+%.

The way that ALL QBs are getting paid, it won't be long before this 13% stat looks quaint and dated.

...which is precisely why I asked how many QBs made more than 13% of the cap. Figured it was a really small sample size.

 

[RolandDeschain]

...which is precisely why I asked how many QBs made more than 13% of the cap. Figured it was a really small sample size.

Don't you dare get in the way of Tical's cherry-picked argument that is semi-logical at best with "facts," Marvin!!

 

[Marvin49]

...which is precisely why I asked how many QBs made more than 13% of the cap. Figured it was a really small sample size.

Don't you dare get in the way of Tical's cherry-picked argument that is semi-logical at best with "facts," Marvin!!

 

[Tical21]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

Roland, you went to injuries, man. Whatever. Go troll somebody else. I'm not impressed with your post count. Come with a decent thought every once in a while, rather than spending all day trying to belittle people for theirs. I'm done, man. I tried to be patient, I'm one of the last people willing to put up with you, but you're just never going to get it.

These are my same exact same thoughts on Wilson, I couldn't have said it better myself. I've always been baffled at his inability to go against cover-1 just as you are. I think it comes down to his inability to properly get the timing throws down. He misses some very easy short passes more often than I would like to see from a guy some people hail as a top 5 passer. Wilson seems to struggle going over the middle as well. In some way I think Wilson's mobility has hindered his development as a passer. He relies too much on performing the Houdini act to get results.

I would like to see Wilson develop like Roethlisberger did. When Roethlisberger first came into the NFL he had a similar style. He made a name for himself by being able to extend plays with his scrambling, and coming up big in clutch moments (though Roethlisbergers brand of scrambling is different). Roethlisberger eventually got the fine nuances of passing down, and he now can beat you in multiple different ways.

The main question I have about Wilson's ability is: can he change? I ask this question because he is a unique quarterback. His skill set is something that nobody but himself has, and he goes about playing QB in a different way than anybody else. I made the Roethlisberger comparison, but even that is a vague comparison. There is really nobody out there in the entire modern NFL who I can compare him too. That is what makes me gun shy with the guy. He does so many things well, yet he completely lacks in a few, very important fundamental areas. He can get away with it now, but how will he respond if he is forced to carry the offensive burden? How will he develop?

 

[bigtrain21]

I would like to see Wilson develop like Roethlisberger did. When Roethlisberger first came into the NFL he had a similar style. He made a name for himself by being able to extend plays with his scrambling, and coming up big in clutch moments (though Roethlisbergers brand of scrambling is different). Roethlisberger eventually got the fine nuances of passing down, and he now can beat you in multiple different ways.

Wilson pretty much destroys Roethlisberger when you compare their first 3 years.

Wilson 72 TD's 26 interceptions
Roethlisberger 52 TD's 43 interceptions
Wilson 1877 Rushing Yards
Roethlisberger 311 rushing yards

Wilson even has thrown for more yards than he did in his first 3 years with a higher completion percentage. Wilson also has rushed for over 700 more yards than Roethlisberger has his entire career.

I would even argue that Wilson was better than Roethlisberger for sure in 2012/2013 without even bothering to factor in yards rushing and maybe even 2014 when you factor in rushing yards.

I think you and Tical both need to remember that Wilson is just finishing up his 3rd year. Neither of you seem to give him any credit for that.

 

[Ramfan128]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

 

[Ramfan128]

I would like to see Wilson develop like Roethlisberger did. When Roethlisberger first came into the NFL he had a similar style. He made a name for himself by being able to extend plays with his scrambling, and coming up big in clutch moments (though Roethlisbergers brand of scrambling is different). Roethlisberger eventually got the fine nuances of passing down, and he now can beat you in multiple different ways.

Wilson pretty much destroys Roethlisberger when you compare their first 3 years.

Wilson 72 TD's 26 interceptions
Roethlisberger 52 TD's 43 interceptions
Wilson 1877 Rushing Yards
Roethlisberger 311 rushing yards

Wilson even has thrown for more yards than he did in his first 3 years with a higher completion percentage. Wilson also has rushed for over 700 more yards than Roethlisberger has his entire career.

I would even argue that Wilson was better than Roethlisberger for sure in 2012/2013 without even bothering to factor in yards rushing and maybe even 2014 when you factor in rushing yards.

I think you and Tical both need to remember that Wilson is just finishing up his 3rd year. Neither of you seem to give him any credit for that.

There is no way on any planet that Wilson is or has been better than Roethilsberger these last three years. Come on.

 

[TheRealDTM]

Wilson pretty much destroys Roethlisberger when you compare their first 3 years.

Wilson 72 TD's 26 interceptions
Roethlisberger 52 TD's 43 interceptions
Wilson 1877 Rushing Yards
Roethlisberger 311 rushing yards

Can I ask why people say stats don't tell the whole story when they are talking about someone with higher stats than Wilson, but when its about proving he's better than someone else they use stats?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yes, Wilson IS better than Rapelisbarfer.

 

[hawk45]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

No, history really does not show that. Kearly debunked that claim when he pointed out that it's only been the last 5 years QBs have been getting contracts up in the 15% range and above. So the historical argument based on those cap numbers is much weaker, and very misleading (perhaps deliberately in the case of that article) for not having included that piece of information in the first place.

Peyton Manning was in the Superbowl vs. us. Green Bay was a whisker away from being in the Superbowl this year. Either of those two win it and there's your high-cap Superbowl winner. So a high-cap SB winner probability is clearly nonzero, in fact it looks like as always the Superbowl will continue to be jockeyed back and forth between elite QBs with an outlier once every 10 years or so just about the time everyone declares defense and running the ball to be dead.

I think if we leave behind the now-very-dubious claim that the science is settled about QB cap% and SB titles, we have an argument that Wilson is the wrong guy. That is a defensible position. Not a position I agree with, but in this case it's true there still remains the question of what will happen when Wilson has to pass more. I think Pete will evolve with Wilson with a big, safe target like JG. I mean if I'm Pete and it's pre-JG and I have Baldwin, Kearse, Prich, etc. with zero separation and Bevell routes drawn in crayon, I don't throw the ball either. Except on the goal line to Lockette because...I...we...had to waste a down?

 

[Tical21]

Semantics aside, however you want to spin it, history show you can't pay your QB huge money and expect to win Super Bowls, quite clearly. Maybe that will change. Maybe Russell is the guy and we're the team to make that change. I personally don't think he's an all-world QB, but I'm admittedly old school, I like the guys that think quickly and get rid of it quickly. His inability at times to have any kind of plan for man-1, especially with a blitz, just drives me bonkers. But he's proved everybody wrong before, maybe he'll hit another level.

If you pay the wrong QB this type of money, you're done. Done. You're probably instantly in cap-hell anyways the second he is signed, and it is going to be his show. I wish he had shown more of a propensity for putting up points and carrying the offense without Marshawn's help, but I realize it isn't his fault that he hasn't. It just makes me really nervous. I've got a bad feeling about this. I can see Marshawn leaving and our offense becoming absolutely inept. How can we look so awful against cover-1? That's what I keep coming back to. That should be ALL DAY. Bevell's calling the same routes that I would. Everybody wants us to run exotic route trees, but you don't run that crap against cover-1. There is no need to. Complete a hitch. Complete a cross. Not that difficult.

No, history really does not show that. Kearly debunked that claim when he pointed out that it's only been the last 5 years QBs have been getting contracts up in the 15% range and above. So the historical argument based on those cap numbers is much weaker, and very misleading (perhaps deliberately in the case of that article) for not having included that piece of information in the first place.

Peyton Manning was in the Superbowl vs. us. Green Bay was a whisker away from being in the Superbowl this year. Either of those two win it and there's your high-cap Superbowl winner. So a high-cap SB winner probability is clearly nonzero, in fact it looks like as always the Superbowl will continue to be jockeyed back and forth between elite QBs with an outlier once every 10 years or so just about the time everyone declares defense and running the ball to be dead.

I think if we leave behind the now-very-dubious claim that the science is settled about QB cap% and SB titles, we have an argument that Wilson is the wrong guy. That is a defensible position. Not a position I agree with, but in this case it's true there still remains the question of what will happen when Wilson has to pass more. I think Pete will evolve with Wilson with a big, safe target like JG. I mean if I'm Pete and it's pre-JG and I have Baldwin, Kearse, Prich, etc. with zero separation and Bevell routes drawn in crayon, I don't throw the ball either. Except on the goal line to Lockette because...I...we...had to waste a down?

My original point was that only 1 QB since 1999 has won a Super Bowl while being paid within the top-5 QB salaries. I didn't make the 13% claim. Also, remember that a lot of the QB's that won Super Bowls weren't necessarily considered "elite" until they won one. I won't say it is nonzero, but paying your QB, or probably any player, that type of money, deals a drastic blow to your chances of fielding a roster good enough to win a Super Bowl. Either way, we gotta stop this, we all know Russell is going to get signed. The difficult part will be, if we don't win any more Super Bowls, pinpointing if this was the exact reason or not.

 

[McGruff]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

So what you are saying is that as a QB Wilson has benefitted from his situation while at the same time suffered because of it. Fair enough. Same can be said of any QB I would think. Sure Russ has a defense and a runNing game to support him, but he also has the bad oline, below average receivers and is hamstrung by a run first system.

Just like Luck has benefitted from a good to great group of receivers and a high quantity passing game while suffering with a lack of running and mediocre defense.

As fans we are sensitive to it because Luck and others get kudos for their suffering while Wilson gets blasted for his benefits. That is the national narrative, and it is simply false. All QBS have good and bad situations. The proof is in what they do with them.

People say Luck is better because he has done more with less than Wilson, when in fact neither of those is true. He certainly ly hasn't done more, and I would argue that he doesn't have less.

 

[Tical21]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

So what you are saying is that as a QB Wilson has benefitted from his situation while at the same time suffered because of it. Fair enough. Same can be said of any QB I would think. Sure Russ has a defense and a runNing game to support him, but he also has the bad oline, below average receivers and is hamstrung by a run first system.

Just like Luck has benefitted from a good to great group of receivers and a high quantity passing game while suffering with a lack of running and mediocre defense.

As fans we are sensitive to it because Luck and others get kudos for their suffering while Wilson gets blasted for his benefits. That is the national narrative, and it is simply false. All QBS have good and bad situations. The proof is in what they do with them.

People say Luck is better because he has done more with less than Wilson, when in fact neither of those is true. He certainly ly hasn't done more, and I would argue that he doesn't have less.

I got to thinking the other day about the way we think of quarterback wins. Watching Felix brought this about. We have all heard that the quarterback's most important job is to "win". But this is also the pitchers most important job. But geez, the roster makes a dang huge difference, doesn't it? We can't blame Felix for his wins total. But we give quarterbacks like Russell a ton of credit for being a winner and tend not to give Luck as much credit, especially for the playoffs. It is quite clear though that the Seahawks have a much better overall roster. There's certainly something to being a "winner", but I wonder how much of it is a chicken/egg argument.

 

[Ramfan128]

It's a bit confusing how some fans throw Wilson's stats around to indicate that he is or will be great (particularly first three year comparisons), without acknowledging his supporting cast - but then when other fans bring up his perceived shortcomings, all of a sudden the OL sucks and the WRs suck.

Doesn't it go both ways? If you blame his supporting cast, you have to give them credit where it's due - this running game being the best in the NFL over the past three years is a HUGE reason for Wilson's statistics looking so good. Yes Wilson is a part of that running game but teams are afraid of Lynch, and that helps Wilson's game A LOT.

So what you are saying is that as a QB Wilson has benefitted from his situation while at the same time suffered because of it. Fair enough. Same can be said of any QB I would think. Sure Russ has a defense and a runNing game to support him, but he also has the bad oline, below average receivers and is hamstrung by a run first system.

Just like Luck has benefitted from a good to great group of receivers and a high quantity passing game while suffering with a lack of running and mediocre defense.

As fans we are sensitive to it because Luck and others get kudos for their suffering while Wilson gets blasted for his benefits. That is the national narrative, and it is simply false. All QBS have good and bad situations. The proof is in what they do with them.

People say Luck is better because he has done more with less than Wilson, when in fact neither of those is true. He certainly ly hasn't done more, and I would argue that he doesn't have less.

I'm wondering where you see Wilson getting "blasted for his benefits"? 99% of fans/media probably think Luck is better than Wilson, because he is. But aside from that, Wilson gets lauded by the media and talking heads constantly. At least that's my perspective. Heck, most of the talking heads have the same opinion as a lot of Seahawk fans - that he's top 10, or just outside the top 10.

There is nothing wrong with the fact that Wilson is not an "elite" QB though. it works for Seattle. He's good enough to win a superbowl....and really he shouldn't be better than Luck. Luck was the number one overall pick for a reason, and there's not shame in Wilson being a top 12 QB. I saw a guy rate Wilson as the 4th best QB (although big Ben was 2nd, so take that with a grain of salt). People seem to love Wilson....I feel like it's only people that try to project and look beyond the numbers that think Wilson isn't all he's cracked up to be. I know that a lot of people don't like the OL and WR, but I think they're pretty good....and when I close my eyes and imagine another QB on Seattle's teams of the past few years, I think they get the Seahawks just as far as Wilson did - which is where I come to my conclusion - that he's not worth top dollar. The issue there is that it's all opinionated....even as far up as with Carroll and Schneider. They don't KNOW that they would have won it all with another QB, but they might think so - and if they do, why pay Wilson that much money??