Russell Wilson is Elite | I'm Putting the Nail in the Coffin

[Seymour]

......The Seahawks have a lower % of pass attempts than any other team in the NFL by a WIDE MARGIN.

You forgot something.

This year!

This is year 7 with Wilson here, and this has not always been the case, This year they bulked up the running game and have to rely more on it to help pass protection with play action. Pay attention please.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Russ' career in a nutshell to many "fans" out there: Who cares if he gets it done in the 4th quarter as good as just about any QB in history, he had a stupid play in the 1st half of the game.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I have absolutely no idea how anyone can say that a QB's worth is based on how much he's asked to throw the ball.

The Seahawks have a lower % of pass attempts than any other team in the NFL by a WIDE MARGIN.

The difference between the 31st ranked team in run % and a middle of the pack team is 5 percentage points. The difference between the 31st ranked team (the Titans) and the 32nd ranked team (the Seahawks) is a ANOTHER 5 percentage points. :lol: .

I explained it, it's not pass attempts or yards, it's efficiency.

We've seen it over and over with Russell going up against other so-called top QB's. They crap the bed in the 2nd half and 4th quarter, and Russell thrives under pressure.

THAT'S why you pay him, not based on some "does he throw it enough to deserve 30+M" equation. It's about effectiveness and efficiency, plain and simple.

Look no further than TD's this year. There are only three QB's with more TD's than Russell (Brees, Mahomes, Luck), yet Russell has 75-100 LESS pass attempts then all three.

Efficiency.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I had numerous Vikings fans during pre-funk tell me they would MUCH rather have a guy like Russ. One guy in particular said 4 or 5 thousand yard seasons with a bunch of TD's mean nothing. How has that worked out for Matt Stafford?
It's a good point, Wins and Losses are BY FAR the most important thing when it comes to a QB. How is he in the clutch? Regardless what the bashers think, he is one of the BEST finishers in the HISTORY of the NFL, period.
Sorry that the numbers that prove that don't fit your narrative because people don't like him.

Sgt. puts it perfectly: EFFICIENCY.

 

[Popeyejones]

......The Seahawks have a lower % of pass attempts than any other team in the NFL by a WIDE MARGIN.

You forgot something.

This year!

This is year 7 with Wilson here, and this has not always been the case, This year they bulked up the running game and have to rely more on it to help pass protection with play action. Pay attention please.

I didn't even remotely forget that it's this year.

I just understand the context that "This year!" comes in.

That context is the head coach saying -- after two years of a more QB centric offense (in which the QB had his lowest efficiency metrics of his career, as you'd expect as you get more pass centered) -- the head coach said he wanted to return to a run first offense and brought in a new OC to do precisely that.

This year is the version of the offense that PC said he wants, and it's the version of the offense that he's getting.

For as long as you plan on PC being around, it's safe to say that his desire is for "This year!" to not just be "This year!". :lol:

 

[Uncle Si]

This year is a product of a rebuild on both sides of the ball. Its naive to suggest that as the players develop, new players arrive that the philosophy on both sides of the ball will not adjust.

So while you didnt forget this year you have incorrectly assumed its measure on Wilson as a qb.. and how the seahawks will take on the future.

 

[Sports Hernia]

.....I just don't really know how you pay a QB of his talent who you only want throwing the ball 25 times a game.

I just dont know how you pay a QB $137 million for 5 years that has shown the league absolutely nothing. How is that working for you? :roll:

Ouch!

 

[Popeyejones]

I explained it, it's not pass attempts or yards, it's efficiency.

I hear what you're saying and I get it, but it's not JUST efficiency either.

Because this is a Seahawks board let's just entirely avoid Russell Wilson or the Seahawks.

Just for clean argumentation (read: this is sake of argument stuff, neither of us care if it's true or not) let's use 2018 QB rating as a stand in for efficiency.

Russell Wilson's efficiency comps are Matt Ryan (3 points lower in QB rating) and Phillips Rivers (3 points higher).

So, from here on out we're just going to be talking about Matt Ryan or Phillips Rivers. We're gonna pretend they're the same age, etc., etc., and talk about their value on the open market.

My argument is that if Ben Roethlisberger retires and Marcus Mariota is allowed to hit FA, Matt Ryan is worth more to the Steelers than he is to the Titans.

That's because in his ideal version of his offense Mike Tomlin wants to be throwing the ball 2/3rds of the time, and in his ideal version of his offense Mike Vrabel wants to be throwing the ball only 1/2 the time.

Matt Ryan or Phillip Rivers is worth more to the Steelers than he is to the Titans because on the Titans on 1/6th more of the plays his job is to turn around and hand a ball, and on the Steelers on 1/6th more of the plays he's asked to be the great QB that he is.

That's it.

If you wanna swap out the Titans for the Seahawks, the only difference for the Seahawks is that it's 1 out of every 5 plays (20%) instead of 1 out of every 6 plays.

Efficiency is about how good a player is. I'm talking about how much a player is used. If I said the 9ers backfield is better than the Seahawks backfield because the 9ers fullback is better, you would rightly tell me that this is a stupid argument because the Seahawks don't even use a fullback. You would be right and I would be wrong because I had confused efficiency for usage. :2thumbs:

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Avoid Russell Wilson??? There is more time spent on BASHING him than then there is giving him ANY credit, by many people on here. And many people who are Hawks fans in general.
As far as $ goes for a QB, look at the coin that pretty boy is getting in Santa Clara. He has done nothing in this league.
Shoot, neither has Cousins. Stats are cute and all, but where are the playoff wins, or big wins in prime time?

 

[Popeyejones]

Avoid Russell Wilson??? There is more time spent on BASHING him than then there is giving him ANY credit, by many people on here. And many people who are Hawks fans in general.

Maybe you misunderstood what I meant by "avoid" Russell Wilson.

What I meant is that -- and your post is evidence of this too -- feelings run pretty hot here about Russell Wilson for obvious reasons.

Because of that, to have a cleaner conversation about efficiency and usage it makes more sense to have that conversation about QBs who AREN'T Russell Wilson (e.g. "avoid" him and all the tempers around him to really just conceptually isolate out the ideas Largent and I are talking about). :2thumbs:

 

[Hawkpower]

I think some of what Popeye is saying here is valid, lets not get so caught up in taking everything personally against Russ.

The truth is, he probably IS worth that much money to us because of his unique skill set/our unique run first style, but on the open market, in today's NFL, I'm not sure other teams would look to Russ as the guy they want running a wide open, throw it 40 times a game type of guy. He is in a perfect niche right now where he can accentuate the skills that he does have.

So I think its valid to say that his situation is unique. Russ IS valuable. Russ WILL get paid. Hes just valuable in a different sort of way that doesnt necessarily fit the prototype of the NFL sling it around QB. That's not where he excels.

And that's ok. We don't need him to.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I explained it, it's not pass attempts or yards, it's efficiency.

I hear what you're saying and I get it, but it's not JUST efficiency either.

Because this is a Seahawks board let's just entirely avoid Russell Wilson or the Seahawks.

Just for clean argumentation (read: this is sake of argument stuff, neither of us care if it's true or not) let's use 2018 QB rating as a stand in for efficiency.

Russell Wilson's efficiency comps are Matt Ryan (3 points lower in QB rating) and Phillips Rivers (3 points higher).

So, from here on out we're just going to be talking about Matt Ryan or Phillips Rivers. We're gonna pretend they're the same age, etc., etc., and talk about their value on the open market.

My argument is that if Ben Roethlisberger retires and Marcus Mariota is allowed to hit FA, Matt Ryan is worth more to the Steelers than he is to the Titans.

That's because in his ideal version of his offense Mike Tomlin wants to be throwing the ball 2/3rds of the time, and in his ideal version of his offense Mike Vrabel wants to be throwing the ball only 1/2 the time.

Matt Ryan or Phillip Rivers is worth more to the Steelers than he is to the Titans because on the Titans on 1/6th more of the plays his job is to turn around and hand a ball, and on the Steelers on 1/6th more of the plays he's asked to be the great QB that he is.

That's it.

If you wanna swap out the Titans for the Seahawks, the only difference for the Seahawks is that it's 1 out of every 5 plays (20%) instead of 1 out of every 6 plays.

Efficiency is about how good a player is. I'm talking about how much a player is used. If I said the 9ers backfield is better than the Seahawks backfield because the 9ers fullback is better, you would rightly tell me that this is a stupid argument because the Seahawks don't even use a fullback. You would be right and I would be wrong because I had confused efficiency for usage. :2thumbs:

I utterly and completely disagree.

The NFL is about fit, in every capacity. Head coach, coordinators, schemes and players.

To say that Ryan, Rivers or Roethlessberger is worth more to their passing teams than they are to a run team like the Titans is false. You create the scheme AROUND your QB. Those teams pass because they have a hard time running, and the Titans run because Mariota can't carry an offense................and low and behold those QB's best years are when their offenses are balanced and running the ball well. Just like us.

GUARANTEE you Dan Quinn would rather have Russell than Matt Ryan...........because for the same cost Russell is far more versatile than Ryan. So when the down times of the offense occurs due to injury? It's the Ryans, Rivers and Roethlessbergers of the league that struggle, and not Russell.

Different coordinators, different scheme, doesn't matter. Russell since day one has been efficient and clutch.

 

[Seymour]

......The Seahawks have a lower % of pass attempts than any other team in the NFL by a WIDE MARGIN.

You forgot something.

This year!

This is year 7 with Wilson here, and this has not always been the case, This year they bulked up the running game and have to rely more on it to help pass protection with play action. Pay attention please.

I didn't even remotely forget that it's this year.

I just understand the context that "This year!" comes in.

That context is the head coach saying -- after two years of a more QB centric offense (in which the QB had his lowest efficiency metrics of his career, as you'd expect as you get more pass centered) -- the head coach said he wanted to return to a run first offense and brought in a new OC to do precisely that.

This year is the version of the offense that PC said he wants, and it's the version of the offense that he's getting.

For as long as you plan on PC being around, it's safe to say that his desire is for "This year!" to not just be "This year!". :lol:

BS, not to this extent.
Then why did we revert to the passing game so quickly the first 2 weeks?
Simple, because Pete felt we could pass protect much better and was quick to switch to up tempo pass attack early on. He quickly found out our pass protection was still not as capable as he hoped and at that point committed to the run.

Why am I explaining this to a 49er though. Silly me....waste of my time. :177692:

 

[Uncle Si]

I think some of what Popeye is saying here is valid, lets not get so caught up in taking everything personally against Russ.

The truth is, he probably IS worth that much money to us because of his unique skill set/our unique run first style, but on the open market, in today's NFL, I'm not sure other teams would look to Russ as the guy they want running a wide open, throw it 40 times a game type of guy. He is in a perfect niche right now where he can accentuate the skills that he does have.

So I think its valid to say that his situation is unique. Russ IS valuable. Russ WILL get paid. Hes just valuable in a different sort of way that doesnt necessarily fit the prototype of the NFL sling it around QB. That's not where he excels.

And that's ok. We don't need him to.

The only validity is the very well known fact that this years iteration of the offense has a much better run game, requiring less attempts but nearly the same production from the qb to be effective.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

+1

 

[Chapow]

The NFL salary cap will jump at least $10 million for the sixth consecutive year in 2019...

The final number, likely to be set in March, will fall in a range between $187 million and $191.1 million. It was $167 million in 2017 and is $177.2 million this year.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2551 ... 1911m-2019

In general I think some fans are far more worried about the salary cap than they should be or need to be. There are lots of ways for teams to make it work and the cap keeps going up significantly every year anyway.

When Russ gets his next contract, I'm sure many will throw a fit and make declarations like we'll never be able to win with Russ hamstringing the cap etc. and then a year or two later his contract will seem entirely reasonable. You know, just like last time.

 

[Mad Dog]

A QB that is efficient, protects the ball well, can hit the difficult throws and plays his best in the 4th quarter is valuable to any team in this league at the highest of pay levels.

Volume stat QB's are valuable to fantasy league owners.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

No doubt, in 2 years, it's like 20 mil more than it is right now. They will be able to take care of him and still have a damn good team. A LOT of the players on this team are on their rookie deals for a while.

 

[Scorpion05]

I also think people totally ignore game planning when evaluating QBs

When a team has to gameplan for the Seahawks offense, they key in on 3 things:

1. The running game
2. The deep ball threat(Wilson to Lockett, Moore)
3. Wilson's legs/ability to extend plays


The idea that because Russ doesn't throw it 30 or more times, he's not worth the contract is absolutely silly. Look at the Cowboys. They get Amari Cooper and all of a sudden, teams can't do 9 man boxes. Similarly, teams have to respect Russ' legs and ability to go over the top, which is why there were times they doubled our best deep threat, Lockett on Monday. What do most defenses say when they're preparing to play us? "Oh, we have to contain Russell Wilson. We have to keep him from extending plays, keep a spy on him." They can't play us with 9 man boxes, just like the Saints with Kamara + Ingram, they HAVE to respect the pass. People say Brees is having an MVP season, but he's also efficient and not leading the league in passing yards. Would ANYONE argue Brees doesn't deserve money?

Look at the Chargers. Remove Keenan Allen and they're other great, tall big play receivers...and Melvin Gordon isn't as effective. It all plays into the game plan and what a defense has to respect.

Look at the Ravens. Is Flacco a better passer than Lamar Jackson? Absolutely. But because of Lamar Jackson, the Ravens can control the tempo of the game, win time of possession, wear out defenses, and most importantly keep their great defense FRESH. That's why it was always silly to argue Russ had nothing to do with our Superb Owl success, because Russ was a great runner AND he was 100x the passer Lamar was at that age

You can argue that Wilson can be replaced for someone more affordable, but then I'd be happy you're not a GM. Because the game plan against THAT new QB would totally change the complexion of our offense. And it's subsequent effect on our time of possession, defense, field position, etc. If you replaced Wilson with Andrew Luck or Phillip Rivers, the run game would still be good, but likely not number 1

 

[Popeyejones]

So I think its valid to say that his situation is unique.

Thanks, man. My only point is it's a unique situation. I think what might be happening is (1) that nobody wants to hear that from me, and (2) tempers about Wilson are hot because people have been debating how good he is (he's obviously really good) and my dumb thought experiment is getting confused for an argument about him not being good or valuable something. :2thumbs:

To say that Ryan, Rivers or Roethlessberger is worth more to their passing teams than they are to a run team like the Titans is false. You create the scheme AROUND your QB. Those teams pass because they have a hard time running, and the Titans run because Mariota can't carry an offense................and low and behold those QB's best years are when their offenses are balanced and running the ball well. Just like us.

I hear what you're saying, but the implication of what you're saying is that the Seahawks run more than any team in the NFL by an insanely wide margin because Russell Wilson can't carry an offense.

I don't think either of us actually believe that.

Instead, I think the Seahawks have one of the best/most efficient QBs in the NFL and still run the ball way more than anybody because, well, they want to run the ball way more than anybody.

You say the Seahawks are best when their offense is balanced, but in comparison the rest of the NFL the Seahawks are the most unbalanced offense in the NFL. Balance is in the middle. The Seahawks are the major outlier.

I ABSOLUTELY don't think that's because they don't think Wilson can carry an offense or because they don't trust Wilson, I think it's purely and simply because that's the offense that Carroll wants to run.

I believe that to be true for three reasons: (1) This offseason he said it directly, (2) he put his money where his mouth is and hired an OC to do it, and (3) it's what he's actually doing.

I don't think he was lying or took the heat of bringing in a guy like Schottenheimer to make that lie more legitimate.

Remember how much heat Schottenheimer got for repeatedly saying that the goal was for the Seahawks to be able to run the ball when everyone knew they were going to run it?

That's WHAT THEY'RE DOING. They said it and then they did it.

They don't have the highest percentage of runs in the league by a wide margin this year by a fluke or an accident. :lol: