power rankings

[rlkats]

Power ranking dont mean crap. The hawks will be a thorn in my Niners side for many many years to come. My Niners are getting older and it showed last year. The hawks are young and talented. Any given sunday any team can win. I think my niners are very talented and so are the hawks. Both teams were built to kill each other. Hopefully they will not hurt each other to bad. It would be nice to have a NFCW superbowl winner. And yes I want my niners to do it, but I would not be pissed if the hawks or any other team did it. Its time for the work to pay off. The NFCW is not a joke no more and its time to prove it. This year is both teams year to put up or shut up so to speak. Anything less from both teams would be a major fail in my mind.

 

[hawkfan68]

The 49ers finished 4th in DVOA last season, behind Seattle, Denver, and New England, with a fairly large buffer between 3rd place New England and 4th place San Fran. The difference between Seattle's (1st place) DVOA and the 49ers was greater than the difference between Atlanta and St. Louis.

Also, Seattle had some major additions this offseason with no real losses. The 49ers had substantial losses, including one of the league's best safeties. They countered with a "build through the draft" type offseason, which resulted in added depth but gained little in terms of immediate impact. Denver also had a very nice offseason. I'd put Seattle/Denver first and second and the 49ers would be battling for third place with New England and Green Bay.

The 49ers are over-rated mostly because people are in love with the idea of a pure college styled NFL QB right now, which CK is the epitome of, and because they nearly won the Superbowl. That plus, it's not like the 49ers are massively over-rated. They are a damn good team with the NFL's best coach. But yeah, I wouldn't have them #1 personally. I doubt FO would either.

Good points. I agree with most of what is posted except for one small item. That is bolded. While Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach, he's far from the NFL's best coach (IMO). His brother is a better coach than he is for one. Mike McCarty of the Packers is another, Mike Tomlin is better than him too. How about some Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichek...... Until he has some superbowl rings as coach, he's not the best coach in the NFL.

 

[Hawks46]

It's hard to argue with Bellichick. That guy gets it done with a constant revolving door at position coaches, coordinators, and personnel.

You know how we can never get good value out of FA WR's (until Rice, and he still remains to be seen) ? Bill's the opposite of that. Every aging vet he gets gives the Pats more than the last team got from them. He got lucky with Brady, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

 

[mretrade]

Dashon Goldson is over rated and I was pleased he was not resigned. He makes big hits and some nice splash plays but he can not cover worth his life. I really wanted a cover safety. The 49ers drafted Eric Reid whose style of game is similar to Dashon's although he is coming out with better talent than Dashon did. Way better range and better physical ability.

One point I would like to attempt to make. Season by season player performance changes and as a result their respective units and a lot of times players or units regress for no specific reason or for no foreseeable reason.

A teams performance last year plus their off season additions minus their off season departures does not equate to the following years performance. It typically doesn't even come close.

 

[TJH]

Who cares. Probably because they were just in the superbowl and we were watching from home. We need to prove we can get it done.

 

[HawkWow]

Harbaugh is creative. But he's also adolescent, if not pre-pubescent. John and Jim remind me of Mark and Mancow Mueller.

I fully anticipate Harbaugh imploding the team. Dashon may have had his weakness' but he was an enforcer. I thought he should have been retained for that reason alone.

I also thought Harbaugh should have addressed the WR position with a 2nd rd pick. There were good ones left on the board. He didn't, then (the finally emerging) Crabtree goes down. Jenkins (who?), Boldin and Manningham will prove to be one of the least feared groups of WRs in the league.

Putting all his eggs in the basket of Kaep might also backfire. I think Smith is going to play well in KC and that won't help matters. McCoy wasn't a terrible pick-up but has his own issues, too.

The Niners have enjoyed a nice rush to pass ratio of around 52%. But Gore is not the Gore of old. He is certainly not frightening or explosive. James is....but will consequently be getting a lot more reps than his frame will tolerate. Hunter may be their best back by season's end. I'll say it here...I think Gore is done.

The above will force that 52% ratio to favor pass unless Kaep is going to run the ball (more than advisable for a franchise QB). IMO, Kaep doesn't have the right mindset to run the ball without getting hurt (see RG3), when he does, and with the running game faltering, their excellent defense will be on the field way too much to be excellent (for 4 qtrs.).

That's when the implosion begins.

 

[mretrade]

I don't think the loss of Dashon is really that big of a deal. He wasn't worth that money and I will be happy to retain other players like Aldon, Crabtree, and Kaepernick in the future. Reid has looked good early and while will have his rookie mistakes, I expect him to be fairly decent out of the gate. Not only that, but we were playing horrible coverage in the secondary and marched through the NFC through our offense. They can't possibly play worse next year then they were in the playoffs.

Your 2nd point doesn't reflect the fact that Crabtree went down after the draft. So you can't look at it like you would have the hindset. And frankly, our 2nd round picks of Tank Carradine and Vance McDonald are ones I am pleased with. I wanted Tank for months and I fully anticipate him being a beast when he recovers. Vance McDonald has looked awesome early and he will replace Delanie Walker. He is big and quick and will present a mismatch for defenders, no doubt.

Putting all your eggs in one basket at QB? Every team does this lol. Pretty much every team would be screwed if the starter got hurt.

People have been saying Gore will slow down for years now? Has it happened? No. Why? Because the 49ers have a lot of running backs who have been giving him rest. Honestly, if Gore tore his ACL (I hope it doesn't happen) I really don't think it would impact us that much. LiMichael James and Kendall Hunter are both really nice players that bring quickness. Next year we will have Lattimore. The 49ers are stacked at running backs.

How was our defense excellent through out the playoffs? We were pretty much an offensive team and we ran away with the NFC. We beat Atlanta after spotting them a 21-0 lead.

HawksWow, Wow! Your post has a lot of wishful thinking in it.

 

[Exittium]

Our Linebackers/ safties / slot CB against VD - SF advantage - based only on last season and our first pre-season game, we have shown a tendancy to have problems covering TE's and backs...

If VD is for vernon davis.. then stick Sherm OR better yet Bambam and he'll miss half the season due to trying to figure out where and who he is... then come the 2nd match he'll be just good again to have another where and who he is experience. So there's no way I'd give this to SF at all...

 

[13thMan]

Our Linebackers/ safties / slot CB against VD - SF advantage - based only on last season and our first pre-season game, we have shown a tendancy to have problems covering TE's and backs...

If VD is for vernon davis.. then stick Sherm OR better yet Bambam and he'll miss half the season due to trying to figure out where and who he is... then come the 2nd match he'll be just good again to have another where and who he is experience. So there's no way I'd give this to SF at all...

Excellent point hawker..... My fear is that teams will start to attack us using TEs until this team figures out how to defend them... What's worse is, reports out of Niner camp suggest that Vance McDonald is coming along quite nicely... Crap! If both VD and VMac are able to make plays down the middle of the field/underneath, we are going to have our hands full, no doubt... On the other side, I hope we can utilize our TEs a bit more this season also...

 

[RichNhansom]

The whole power ranking thing is kind of funny to me. Can't really figure out what makes one team good and another bad. Last year
The Seahawks were ranked by PFF and PFT as the best team in football coming into the playoffs. We lost Clemons to an ACL and Jason Jones to FA but have answered those losses with Avril and Bennett while also improving our secondary with Winfield and then signed Harvin. Prior to the draft NFL.com had the Niners ranked #1 and us #2 and ESPN had us #1 and the Niners #2. Post Draft the rankings pretty much stayed the same but after the Niners lost Crabtree even NFL.com moved us to #1.

Now that's all fine but when Harvin went down some rankings dropped us all the way to #4 which is lower than anyone had us previous even before we signed Harvin and bumped the Niners back to #1 even though Crabtree is still injured.

I was thinking today, if we lost Rice, Baldwin and Tate was coming off a torn ACL but we signed Boldin, Lynch was turning 30 and Mebane 34, we didn't sign Bennett or Avril or resign Jason Jones but brought in a DT that has been referred to as a bust, lost McCoy and replaced him with a rookie and lets say Kamtrack was being replaced by a rookie. Does anyone think we would still be ranked even #4?

I have a feeling we wouldn't be in the top half of the power rankings, so how is it the Niners are so damn power pole resilient? Are the polls pandering to the readers? Is the NFL propping up the Niners because they are the most profitable team in the league? Or is there something I am missing?

I looked at their home preseason loss to the Broncos and Kaep went 4-4 but only for 38 yards and the receivers that caught passes were made primarily of guys I have never heard of. Their defense gave up 69 yards on the ground to CJ Anderson at 4.6 yards a clip and their secondary allowed Brock Osweiller to go 13-18 for 105 yards an in the end they lost. For a team that keeps getting labeled as the deepest roster in the league, they sure seem to have some deficiencies.

You can dismiss Goldston and say he is over rated but if he is a repeat probowler and last years allpro then is he really that bad or is everyone wrong? If their wrong like Niner fans want us to think then why would we believe they are right about power rankings?

Sopa and RJF never made probowls and the defense looked bad when they had to rely on them but then why were they the first and second string on the deepest roster in the NFL? Why should anyone assume their replacements will be any better? Both left in FA for teams that will have them as starters and were willing to pay more than the Niners. Why is it an automatic assumption that the failed project out of KC and a rookie will be an upgrade?

Crabtree accounted for nearly half of the Niners 3rd down conversions and was a master at getting separation early and getting YAC, Not to mention Kaep's #1 target by far. Boldin is a possession receiver that doesn't get separation but fights for the ball and is best suited as a #2 in single coverage. With no other real threats he will be double covered much of the time. Will he be a suitable replacement for Crabtree? Crabtree was not only on the roster last year he was the biggest contributor to it. Is that really no big loss?

Walker dropped a lot of balls last year but they kept playing him because he was a big part of their running game. Is it realistic to think a rookie is going to step in and pick up right where he left off? Again Walker left to be a starter and for more money.

These are just some of the questions. Can Harbaugh learn to rotate out his starters? If not can Justin Smith stay healthy and will they be burnt out by the playoffs again?

Can Gore continue to be productive at 30? Can Hunter finally stay healthy?

Will Keap learn to spread the ball around without his relief valve on the field? Will any of these scrub receivers step up or are we looking at the type of meltdown we seen in Seattle when we lost all our receivers?

Can Manningham and Williams come back 100% and be productive off injury? Even though neither has ever been dominant in this or previous systems?

Can that secondary survive without Goldston or Culliver? Will Reid be starter quality in his first year? Is Ausimongo done? Will Brown get his 2 Mill or will he go into the season disgruntled?

Kind of going on but there are more than enough reasons to question how they will manage to maintain let alone being the best team in football.

Someone tell me what I am missing.

 

[RichNhansom]

Our Linebackers/ safties / slot CB against VD - SF advantage - based only on last season and our first pre-season game, we have shown a tendancy to have problems covering TE's and backs...

If VD is for vernon davis.. then stick Sherm OR better yet Bambam and he'll miss half the season due to trying to figure out where and who he is... then come the 2nd match he'll be just good again to have another where and who he is experience. So there's no way I'd give this to SF at all...

Excellent point hawker..... My fear is that teams will start to attack us using TEs until this team figures out how to defend them... What's worse is, reports out of Niner camp suggest that Vance McDonald is coming along quite nicely... Crap! If both VD and VMac are able to make plays down the middle of the field/underneath, we are going to have our hands full, no doubt... On the other side, I hope we can utilize our TEs a bit more this season also...

Your pretty funny. We were #1 in the league for points allowed and that was facing a multitude of the best TE's in football last year. Somehow I don't see a rookie TE suddenly being the thing we can't handle, especially with no receivers to draw coverage and a running game that will probably take a hit from the loss of Walker plus an aging RB in Gore . The better question will be if VD will have alligator arms when he plays against Seattle. I get the feeling the LOB won't have much problem shutting down that hot mess.

Keep an eye on Wagner. He does pretty good in coverage and will likely get even better considering last year was his rookie year.

 

[13thMan]

I was thinking about how the power rankings are formulated as well... How the Niners are still at the top of most consensus picks, etc.... With all those questions marks, I have to believe that somehow everything is "weighted" in importance to come up with the rankings?? I'm not sure but.... Regardless, I think the 2 biggest factors in all the Niners #1 status can be summed up:

1. Most (if not everyone) think that, based on CK's limited sample and taking them to the SB, he is only going to improve (which is a scary thought, no doubt)... I have to believe this is a huge huge cause of the general perception, is simply the perception and quality of Kaepernick's play in only 10 games.

2. The Niners are still the reigning NFC champs until further notice.

I believe the above two things trump all else and are the two primary reasons for the pundits putting them at the top. IMO

 

[RichNhansom]

I was thinking about how the power rankings are formulated as well... How the Niners are still at the top of most consensus picks, etc.... With all those questions marks, I have to believe that somehow everything is "weighted" in importance to come up with the rankings?? I'm not sure but.... Regardless, I think the 2 biggest factors in all the Niners #1 status can be summed up:

1. Most (if not everyone) think that, based on CK's limited sample and taking them to the SB, he is only going to improve (which is a scary thought, no doubt)... I have to believe this is a huge huge cause of the general perception, is simply the perception and quality of Kaepernick's play in only 10 games.

Common sense would equate to the same thinking about Wilson and right now his supporting cast looks one hell of a lot better so there goes that theory. In fact Kaep will be throwing to an entirely new receiving core unless Williams (who shouldn't inspire anything and is as big a question mark as the unproven guys with his return from injury) while Wilson is not only seeing his entire receiver core return, he should have much more chemistry with them and will also be getting Harvin on the field at some point.

2. The Niners are still the reigning NFC champs until further notice.

And the Ravens are the Super bowl champions so there goes that theory. Truth is the Ravens have made some good moves to counter their losses this offseason. An argument could easily be made they are closer to the team that went to the super bowl than the Niners are.

I believe the above two things trump all else and are the two primary reasons for the pundits putting them at the top. IMO

The only thing I can come up with is like I said, pandering to a larger readership or coddeling the team that is currently the most profitable team in the league.

Now give me some reason that those thing aren't legit and I am interested.

 

[13thMan]

It could also be just a matter of the rest of the football public not drinking as much of the koolaid as we are? Just saying... we haven't done anything... yet. I'm approaching this season the same way I have approached every other... guarded optimism. Am I drinking the koolaid? Sure... Am I shouting from the mountain top? Not at this time. But that's just me...

 

[Exittium]

Well my assumption for the Power Rankings are.. They're numbers that don't mean jack. As well Elliot Harrison so called "NFL analyst" has really never had anything positive to say about the hawks and gushes over the 49ers every year it seems. The dude usually if he can goes out of his way to attack us in his columns then spends half the day Editing it on the site. NFL.com for me has almsot become equivalent of Bleacher Report.. in terms of our Hawks.

 

[13thMan]

At the end of the day, is it possible that the Niners are dubbed #1 in the power rankings simply because they are the defending NFC Champions? If so, I don't have any problem with the rankings... Frankly, we haven't won a damn thing since 2010, division or otherwise... Why is there such a backlash when the pundits view last years runner up in a DIVISION as being anything less than #1 in the power rankings??? I am just as excited and looking forward to this season as the next guy but c'mon... they will crown us when we have actually done something... Is that so outlandish? In the immortal words of whomever... "Don't tell me, SHOW ME!"... I think that's where the rest of the world not drinking our blue and green koolaid is coming from, and I'm ok with that... Now let's hope we can turn skeptics into believers... let's turn potential into reality. Until then, I'm comfortable in the skin we're in...

 

[chevelle03]

I was thinking today, if we lost Rice, Baldwin and Tate was coming off a torn ACL but we signed Boldin, Lynch was turning 30 and Mebane 34, we didn't sign Bennett or Avril or resign Jason Jones but brought in a DT that has been referred to as a bust, lost McCoy and replaced him with a rookie and lets say Kamtrack was being replaced by a rookie. Does anyone think we would still be ranked even #4?

Exactly.

 

[RichNhansom]

At the end of the day, is it possible that the Niners are dubbed #1 in the power rankings simply because they are the defending NFC Champions? If so, I don't have any problem with the rankings... Frankly, we haven't won a damn thing since 2010, division or otherwise... Why is there such a backlash when the pundits view last years runner up in a DIVISION as being anything less than #1 in the power rankings??? I am just as excited and looking forward to this season as the next guy but c'mon... they will crown us when we have actually done something... Is that so outlandish? In the immortal words of whomever... "Don't tell me, SHOW ME!"... I think that's where the rest of the world not drinking our blue and green koolaid is coming from, and I'm ok with that... Now let's hope we can turn skeptics into believers... let's turn potential into reality. Until then, I'm comfortable in the skin we're in...

It's funny you keep going back to the super bowl thing but don't seem to have any problem with the actual super champions being snubbed. Is there some reason you want to remind all of us that (your words) we haven't won a damn thing? while it seems equally important to you to give the Niners credit for LOSING the super bowl.

Did you ever consider that this is a game of inches and a snap of a ball a half a second sooner would have dropped the Niners to the 5 seed and us to the 2 seed? That the only team the Niners could beat at 10:00am was the Jets and if not for the league taking them out of those early starts against NE and GB they again would have been the 5 seed?

My point is that the teams were extremely close at the end of last year. The schedule and a little luck is the only reason they had a bye. Do you think the Seahawks could have beat Atlanta if they were in the first week of travel and not playing at 10:00am? How about if Clemons doesn't tear his ACL at fedex field and Lynch doesn't sprain his ankle in the same game or we didn't lose our Kicker? How about the Niners, do you think they would have beat Atlanta if it were a 10:00am game or they were playing without Aldon and Gore had a sprained ankle? What if Akers can't perform your kick offs?

These are not respect polls or design to celebrate last years winners. They are power polls based on the expectations of said teams given the changes in that team since the end of last year. The only relevance last year has is how they played. Not that they made it farther because that has stipulations to it. The Seahawks went 7=9 a couple years ago and then beat the defending world champions but you don't see anyone giving us mad props for that. We were in a historically weak division but if I use your logic we were better than any team that didn't make the playoffs by default.

It is at least as relevant to compare the last game these guys played against each other as it is to say Hey, they won the division and made it farther than you so they deserve props.

If you wanna give false props to a team maybe you should go to their board and do it instead of dressing up like a local and trying to convince us that we are not as good or don't deserve respect.

Have a nice day.

 

[13thMan]

The Ravens completely dismantled their team after the Super Bowl... wholesale changes. So, no, I don't see why they would be near the top of the power rankings... That's ridiculous.

And you want to play the "what if" game? Ok... What if the real officials had been officiating the Green Bay game? What if the correct call is made on the touchdown/ception? What if Akers doesn't whiff on kicks in either rams game? What if Aldon and Justin Smith don't get injured? So what? What does any of this actually mean? Nothing.

I'm sorry I don't subscribe to the typical koolaid chugging, nut hugging, blind faith fandom that seems more prevalent amongst our fanbase than any other. I choose to be a realist. If that's too much too handle, then so be it.

Finally, I'm not giving false props to any team... Am I stamping the Niners ticket??? No. This whole discussion is about power rankings so who gives a crap? The ONLY point that I was trying to make is very very simple. I DON'T HAVE A PROBLEM WITH WHERE WE ARE RANKED BY ANYBODY! That's it... nothing more, nothing less.

Got it?

Have a nice day as well...

 

[60niners]

The whole power ranking thing is kind of funny to me. Can't really figure out what makes one team good and another bad. Last year
The Seahawks were ranked by PFF and PFT as the best team in football coming into the playoffs. We lost Clemons to an ACL and Jason Jones to FA but have answered those losses with Avril and Bennett while also improving our secondary with Winfield and then signed Harvin. Prior to the draft NFL.com had the Niners ranked #1 and us #2 and ESPN had us #1 and the Niners #2. Post Draft the rankings pretty much stayed the same but after the Niners lost Crabtree even NFL.com moved us to #1.

Now that's all fine but when Harvin went down some rankings dropped us all the way to #4 which is lower than anyone had us previous even before we signed Harvin and bumped the Niners back to #1 even though Crabtree is still injured.

I was thinking today, if we lost Rice, Baldwin and Tate was coming off a torn ACL but we signed Boldin, Lynch was turning 30 and Mebane 34, we didn't sign Bennett or Avril or resign Jason Jones but brought in a DT that has been referred to as a bust, lost McCoy and replaced him with a rookie and lets say Kamtrack was being replaced by a rookie. Does anyone think we would still be ranked even #4?

I have a feeling we wouldn't be in the top half of the power rankings, so how is it the Niners are so damn power pole resilient? Are the polls pandering to the readers? Is the NFL propping up the Niners because they are the most profitable team in the league? Or is there something I am missing?
Yes.

I looked at their home preseason loss to the Broncos and Kaep went 4-4 but only for 38 yards and the receivers that caught passes were made primarily of guys I have never heard of. Their defense gave up 69 yards on the ground to CJ Anderson at 4.6 yards a clip and their secondary allowed Brock Osweiller to go 13-18 for 105 yards an in the end they lost. For a team that keeps getting labeled as the deepest roster in the league, they sure seem to have some deficiencies.
4-4, two passes to Boldin, one to VD, and one to Marlon Moore. I can understand Moore, but you've never heard of the other two??
First, It's pretty ridiculous that you're using the first preseason game as an argument against the 49ers being one of the top teams in the league. Are you suggesting that holding a RB to 69 yds, and a QB to 105 yds TOTAL, while playing backups is a bad thing?

You can dismiss Goldston and say he is over rated but if he is a repeat probowler and last years allpro then is he really that bad or is everyone wrong? If their wrong like Niner fans want us to think then why would we believe they are right about power rankings?

Sopa and RJF never made probowls and the defense looked bad when they had to rely on them but then why were they the first and second string on the deepest roster in the NFL? Why should anyone assume their replacements will be any better? Both left in FA for teams that will have them as starters and were willing to pay more than the Niners. Why is it an automatic assumption that the failed project out of KC and a rookie will be an upgrade?
What makes you think the defense looked bad when Sopoaga and RJF were in? Were the 49ers not one of the strongest teams against the run last season? "Failed project" is for depth, plus it's been fairly well-documented that he was miscast in KC. Ian Williams is not a rookie, and the 49ers staff saw fit to offer him money over the other two departures, so only time will tell if it was a worthwhile decision.

Crabtree accounted for nearly half of the Niners 3rd down conversions and was a master at getting separation early and getting YAC, Not to mention Kaep's #1 target by far. Boldin is a possession receiver that doesn't get separation but fights for the ball and is best suited as a #2 in single coverage. With no other real threats he will be double covered much of the time. Will he be a suitable replacement for Crabtree? Crabtree was not only on the roster last year he was the biggest contributor to it. Is that really no big loss?
As you've described it, Crabtree was basically the only receiving threat on the team last year, yet they still ended up playing well enough to reach the Super Bowl. Why is it improbable then, that with limited receiving options (according to fans) they cannot still continue to play well?

Walker dropped a lot of balls last year but they kept playing him because he was a big part of their running game. Is it realistic to think a rookie is going to step in and pick up right where he left off? Again Walker left to be a starter and for more money.
I could also ask you if it is realistic to expect every single draft pick the team makes to be a bust and not produce on the field? If he is even mildly productive then it is a success for a backup role.

These are just some of the questions. Can Harbaugh learn to rotate out his starters? If not can Justin Smith stay healthy and will they be burnt out by the playoffs again?
Whether or whether not, is irrespective of the question at hand. The Niners are being ranked as a top team, and this question has no bearing on that.

Can Gore continue to be productive at 30? Can Hunter finally stay healthy?
I don't think the 49ers running game is questionable by anyones standards....

Will Keap learn to spread the ball around without his relief valve on the field? Will any of these scrub receivers step up or are we looking at the type of meltdown we seen in Seattle when we lost all our receivers?
Again, whether or whether not, is irrespective of the question at hand. The Niners are being ranked as a top team, and this question has no bearing on that.

Can Manningham and Williams come back 100% and be productive off injury? Even though neither has ever been dominant in this or previous systems?

Can that secondary survive without Goldston or Culliver? Will Reid be starter quality in his first year? Is Ausimongo done? Will Brown get his 2 Mill or will he go into the season disgruntled?

Kind of going on but there are more than enough reasons to question how they will manage to maintain let alone being the best team in football.

Someone tell me what I am missing.

Told.

As it pertains to rankings... A lot of the stuff I didn't address just really doesn't matter.

I assume you're unhappy with the 49ers ranking compared to the Seahawks ranking or else you probably wouldn't care either way - and I think the biggest piece of the puzzle that you're missing is that top teams in the league don't go on the road and lay stinkers to the Lions and Cardinals and Dolphins. The Lions could only manage to win 4 games last year, yet one of them was against the Hawks... The Cardinals 5, and same story. Good teams go on the road and win games against bad teams. The Niners lost one game last year to an opponent with a losing record, and that was a divisional game. How could the Hawks be ranked as the top team in the league, or even above the Niners if they can't go on the road and beat a 4-12 team...