In my view there's a clear top two. The Chiefs and Bills are both good teams in winnable divisions in a weaker conference and have star QBs with low cap hits ($7.5m Mahomes, $10m Allen). I'd be pretty surprised if either misses the playoffs.
After that there's a group of teams that are very close. Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Packers, Bucs in the NFC and then Ravens, Browns and Titans in the AFC depending on what you think of Jackson ($3m), Mayfield ($10m) and Tannehill ($11m). I could see an argument for the Hawks ranked anywhere in this group between #3 (best QB) and #10 (hardest division).
Tier three would be Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers, Cards and Colts. I don't see a good argument for any of those teams above the Hawks right now.