Let's be real. 12 things both fanbases are overlooking

[dusktreader]

Reading fan forums from both teams this week has gotten pretty exhausting by now. I'm intensely excited for the opener tonight, and I can't wait to see the banner unveiled. I think the Seahawks will win, and I think they will do it decisively. The 'Hawks will control this game and set the tempo for the season. However, folks are being delusional about some things.

Here's 12 points of reality that I think both fan-bases need to face.

For Seahawks Fans:

1. The new illegal contact emphasis is going to hurt our team. The LOB has the talent to still be a dominating secondary, but there are going to be very painful ticky-tack calls that are going to give up damaging first downs and long yardage gains. Aaron Rodgers is going to take advantage of loosened up coverage and make plays. What will make or break the night is our team's ability to stay focused, and keep fighting for position until the opportunity for a marquee turnover presents itself
   
2. Shallower depth will hurt the Seahawks. Our team doesn't have the D-line rotation that it did last year, and the NASCAR assault will slow down. That coupled with the Packers running a no-huddle will render the pass rush less effective. The 'Hawks aren't as deep at CB either, and Jeremy Lane, while showing some flashes of greatness in the preseason, is no Walter Thurmond III sitting in the nickel. We're going to see a lot of spread formations, and Rodgers is going to test our defense's depth.
   
3. The RT situation could be big trouble unless Britt figures it out quick. He is going to have to alternate between facing a ferocious Clay Matthews and a wily Julius Peppers. This will be the night that shows how ready he is to start in this league. He's going to get help from TE and G, but there are going to be a lot of man-up situations that could turn into big losses.
   
4. Our team's philosophy isn't suddenly going to switch to a pass first offense. The passing game will develop over the season, but it's not going to appear in game one as an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. If the running game starts slow, our offense will struggle to control the field because we will be facing a lot of down-and-distance situations.
   
5. Marshawn is probably going to take a step back, but not because of durability or age. He won't have his 'eyes' in the form of MikeRob. During Robinson's absence last year, Marshawn was far less effective. The team's faith in Coleman is puzzling, and I think the lack of a synchronized I-formation gut attack is going to impact our running game.
   
6. This game is going to be all about discipline. There's no doubt that the Seahawks have more talent on their side of the field. The post-season last year proved that this team is just as good as their hype. Still, they will have to come out and play with amnesia. It's a fundamental part of Pete's philosophy to play every game like it's a championship. This game will show if the team is really buying into that mindset or if there's some crippling sense of entitlement lurking in the players' minds.

For Packer Fans:

1. Adding an old Julius Peppers is not going to suddenly transform your team's defense to an above average squad. There's a reason why the Bears let him go without even trying. He's not going to magically get younger and learn a brand new defense at the same time. Clay Matthews is going to be a factor with his edge rush, but he's not going to disrupt Russell Wilson's robot like discipline all by himself.
   
2. Marshawn is going to punish the Packers' soft middle. Losing the starting NT on one of the worst D-lines in the NFL is gonna be big. Our team's O-line is healthy for the first time in forever, and the Guards specialize in plowing open lanes for a very hard to tackle Lynch. The Seahawks believe in setting the tone with the running game, and your front 7 are going to be in for a long night.
   
3. Russell is going to be a nightmare for you because he will have better protection than last year. He can throw out of the pocket, and he will prove it tonight. He has a history of playing well under pressure and has demonstrated that he can take a game over when needed.
   
4. The Seahawks receiving corps is a sleeper unit that is going to surprise you. People didn't notice them last year because they weren't needed that much. However, they were still the most efficient receiving unit in the league. Percy's going to make your secondary bleed in space and, just when you think the pass rush has Russell dead to rights, he will find Baldwin for a first.
   
5. The crowd noise at C-Link is a real factor. Your Packers aren't going to magically be the first team that isn't affected. Oh, and the fans make the noise and not the stadium. This fan-base has been crazy since the advent of this team, and it has never gone away. We were loud during the bad years, and we are deafening when we are cheering for this once-in-a-lifetime team. Bandwagon fans are welcome, but they are by far not the core of this team's supporters.
   
6. This game is not about revenge. The infamous reception that your team is still upset about happened 2 years ago in an inconsequential regular season game that was filled with flukes and poor officiating before the last seconds of the game. This game is about 2 high profile NFC teams wanting to set the tone for championship seasons. Forget the old controversy, there's going to be plenty of intensity on the field that belongs to this night alone.

 

[Largent80]

It is a football game. Simple.

Try to execute a game plan, the team that does it best will more than likely win.

All the talk and stats...blah blah blah are just that. It is about hitting people and playing Seahawk football.

 

[bmorepunk]

I approve of this message.

 

[Shock2k]

Nice write up. Thanks for taking the time to put it together.

Seahawks Fans (My comments):
1) People around the league think of the LOB as a fast moving physical group... which they of course are. Dominatingly physical would be more like it. BUT, I would argue this isn't the reason for their success. There primary attribute is intelligence. And intelligent players know how to adapt. And they have, as they haven't received one defensive holding penalty all pre-season (if you see how many have been called, that's pretty incredible)
Further, even if we give up a lot of Yards in the middle of the field (which happened a lot last year), penalty or otherwise, we are still amazingly stout in the red zone. (Haven't lost a game by more than 7 points in 2 years)
2) I would say in the D-line rotation it will be a slight downturn but will be better by the end of the season. Jeremy Lane is just a product of not having enough opportunities, but I would say he's a much better corner then a nickel corner.
3) Max Unger, Okung and that former Italian but not really Italian guy (he's Portuguese) were all injured last year, but Russell made it work. He only has to deal with the RT situation now, and Britt will get his feet under him. it seems like it take 6 to 12 games in order for o-lineman to get used to (good at) our zone blocking system.
5) I will make a bold prediction, even with a more difficult SOS, with a more consistent running back rotation, Marshawn will end up with an even better performance in the playoffs than last year.
6) Totally agree, but has anybody seen anything that would make you think this team not as focused as last year. How I "know" is they wouldn't either A) Be on the team anymore, or B) Have a newly minted mult-mil contract with the Seahawks. I respect those 260 transaction the first season as a sign that Pete and Jon have no time for guys don't have that "Seahawk'ness".

Packers Fans
Well said things here. I would say though in a league where you have to have a short memory, I doubt anyone on Green Bay cares about that play to years ago. They are focused on the Seahawks of today.

 

[Shock2k]

It is a football game. Simple.

Try to execute a game plan, the team that does it best will more than likely win.

All the talk and stats...blah blah blah are just that. It is about hitting people and playing Seahawk football.

Hey man, don't talk down to my stats. It's like calling my baby ugly.

Speaking of: Here's some stats:
Russell Wilson's pre-season (All 4 games):
Passer Rating: 133.8
Comp%: 78.6% (Pete told him get 70%, what an overachiever, sheesh)
Interceptions: 0
TD's: 3 passing 2 rushing.
Russhing 9 ATT for 61 yards, 6.8 average.

BUT
Sacks taken: 4 for 21 yards in 42 pass attempts
Sack%: 9.5% (This doesn't include pressures where he had to scramble)
So glad we have Russell, with the offensive line problems we've had over the past couple years, there would have been no Superbowl without him. No way we would have won anything significant without his elusiveness.

 

[dusktreader]

Nice write up. Thanks for taking the time to put it together.

Thanks!

they haven't received one defensive holding penalty all pre-season (if you see how many have been called, that's pretty incredible)

This is true, and I think the intelligence of the LOB is their greatest strength. Still, they didn't play 4 consecutive quarters in a game that meant anything yet. I think the emphasis will show up, and there will be some times that it will hurt. I think, though, the Legion is more than up to the challenge. Rodgers is going to have a hard time in the Red-zone for sure.

I would say in the D-line rotation it will be a slight downturn but will be better by the end of the season.

I totally agree. I think we have some younger guys that are going to develop into awesome lineman, but it will take some regular season brawls for them to get up to full speed. I think Bennett and Avril will be even better this year.

Jeremy Lane is just a product of not having enough opportunities, but I would say he's a much better corner then a nickel corner.

I don't know. When he was playing on the outside this preseason, he didn't look great. I think he has potential to be a really good or great nickel corner, but I don't trust him on the outside as a starting CB.

Marshawn will end up with an even better performance in the playoffs than last year.

I really hope so! I'm not worried about his durability or slowing down at all right now. I'm just worried that Coleman is going to get exposed as a below average fullback.

Pete and Jon have no time for guys don't have that "Seahawk'ness".

I'm with you on that, but I just have this nagging worry about some insidious overconfidence that hasn't shown yet. If it does show up, I think it will be early in the season (like in this game), and it will get driven out really quickly. No one on the team has any tolerance for an entitled attitude.

I doubt anyone on Green Bay cares about that play to years ago. They are focused on the Seahawks of today.

I think you are completely right about that when it comes to the team. The fans on the other hand still act like someone peed in their cheerios.

 

[themunn]

[*]Shallower depth will hurt the Seahawks. Our team doesn't have the D-line rotation that it did last year, and the NASCAR assault will slow down. That coupled with the Packers running a no-huddle will render the pass rush less effective. The 'Hawks aren't as deep at CB either, and Jeremy Lane, while showing some flashes of greatness in the preseason, is no Walter Thurmond III sitting in the nickel. We're going to see a lot of spread formations, and Rodgers is going to test our defense's depth.

I think this is an entirely overstated point - Williams played over 100 more snaps than Bennett (the highest snap count of any 2013 Seahawks D-Lineman), Irvin will come into Clemons' spot for pass rush situations, and we've added guys like Marsh and a healthy Scruggs. Not to mention the apparent growth of Schofield to the team.
That compares to our losses of Clemons, McDonald and Bryant. Good players yes, but not irreplaceable and hardly a huge hit to the team given the players moving into their spots.

Additionally I was never a fan of Thurmond and I think we'll be a recipient of addition by subtraction there.

 

[Mick063]

Pure speculation.

We won't know any of this until the season plays out.

Why?

Both Seattle and Green Bay are among the youngest teams in the league. One cannot predict development of young players. A fullback, or corner, or wide receiver, or just about any position can (and usually does) cross a veteran threshold in year three. On occasion, they "blow up" to become stars. All it takes is for the light bulb to click on.

So in one specific example, it is unfair to compare a 2nd year player, Coleman, to a seasoned veteran like Robinson and suggest that Coleman has peaked or cannot ever become as good as Robinson.

Seattle is ahead of the curve with respect to coaching the rules and penalty emphasis. They won't miss a beat. In the end, it all boils down to moving the QB off his spot and making him uncomfortable. Give any QB consistent pocket comfort and he will make any secondary look ordinary.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

.Just for the record:

1. The new emphasis is going to favor the Seahawks more than it will the Packers. Only Randall Cobb is smaller than 6'2, 215. Everyone else on their team is a big boy, so our DBs can press, and don't have to worry about getting burnt. All our WRs are on the smaller side and can make the most out of more opportunities in space.

2. Our D-Line depth was much better than it was a year ago at this time where Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin, Clinton McDonald, and Brandon Browner did not suit up for the Defense plus both Mebane and McDaniel were slowed by groin injuries VS the Panthers.

3. Night Game in Seattle with the 12th man behind our Defense and our Offense facing the Packer's D is a much easier game than playing across country vs the Panthers (12-4 team) in 95 degree heat and humidity.

 

[Scottemojo]

Some of the first 6 contradict the second 6.

 

[StoneCold]

I took it that the first 6 were to refute things the Hawk fans are overlooking and causing them to predict a blowout. The second 6 are things the Packer fans are overlooking in thinking they have a better chance than they do to steal a win.

My concerns are the Dline, we seemed to give some yards on the ground during pre-season. And while we may have all of our starting linebackers, Wagner and Irvin have had very little playing time. I think we could see some ugly yards put up by Lacy.

SC
PS Yeah I know preseason is meaningless...at least for most teams. Pete and the Hawks always play to win.

GO Hawks!

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

[*]Shallower depth will hurt the Seahawks. Our team doesn't have the D-line rotation that it did last year, and the NASCAR assault will slow down. That coupled with the Packers running a no-huddle will render the pass rush less effective. The 'Hawks aren't as deep at CB either, and Jeremy Lane, while showing some flashes of greatness in the preseason, is no Walter Thurmond III sitting in the nickel. We're going to see a lot of spread formations, and Rodgers is going to test our defense's depth.

I think this is an entirely overstated point - Williams played over 100 more snaps than Bennett (the highest snap count of any 2013 Seahawks D-Lineman), Irvin will come into Clemons' spot for pass rush situations, and we've added guys like Marsh and a healthy Scruggs. Not to mention the apparent growth of Schofield to the team.
That compares to our losses of Clemons, McDonald and Bryant. Good players yes, but not irreplaceable and hardly a huge hit to the team given the players moving into their spots.

Additionally I was never a fan of Thurmond and I think we'll be a recipient of addition by subtraction there.

I liked Thurmond but when he was suspended last year I actually thought the Nickel Defense was better because Lane did exactly what he was supposed to do but looking back now I think Thurmond would freelance at times and take risks trying to boost his stat sheet in his contract year. WT3 would make great plays but more often than not he would whiff on some easy plays.

 

[hawk45]

1. I agree it will hurt our secondary at some point, either by penalties or because we have to lay back and be less aggressive to avoid the penalties. It will help our offense, yes, but I mainly worry about this point vs elite passing attacks, and Green Bay is that.

2. Could be, yeah.

3. 100% agree. Although the overall state of our OL is really good for this team. Okung is still out there, Carp isn't exhausted yet (maybe by the 2nd half), and we haven't had other random injuries across the line. But yeah RT is a concern.

4. Eh? I see a lot of people predicting we mix in more passing, yes, and that's probably true. Responding only to those who think we'll totally skew pass is a bit of cherry picking but whatever. Also...I hardly see anyone here believing we're going to go pass heavy tonight. So did we shift terrain to talking about the entire season here?

5. Yeah but, is Marshawn, like, going to take a step back in this very game? After a full offseason of rest, and with a healthy (at this point) offensive line, at Century Link field? It's a bit weird to call fans delusional for having confidence in Lynch when the notion that Lynch takes a big step back at this point of the season seems pretty out there. If the point was he'll wear down at some point this season, then yeah okay, but I thought this was a discussion about tonight's game. So again the shifting terrain of the convo.

6. The last thing I am worried about is this team's mindset, and far from that being delusional, I believe that's common among those paying even a scintilla of attention to this team, its coach, and its players.

Agree with the Packer points.

 

[dusktreader]

1. I agree it will hurt our secondary at some point, either by penalties or because we have to lay back and be less aggressive to avoid the penalties. It will help our offense, yes, but I mainly worry about this point vs elite passing attacks, and Green Bay is that.

2. Could be, yeah.

3. 100% agree. Although the overall state of our OL is really good for this team. Okung is still out there, Carp isn't exhausted yet (maybe by the 2nd half), and we haven't had other random injuries across the line. But yeah RT is a concern.

4. Eh? I see a lot of people predicting we mix in more passing, yes, and that's probably true. Responding only to those who think we'll totally skew pass is a bit of cherry picking but whatever. Also...I hardly see anyone here believing we're going to go pass heavy tonight. So did we shift terrain to talking about the entire season here?

5. Yeah but, is Marshawn, like, going to take a step back in this very game? After a full offseason of rest, and with a healthy (at this point) offensive line, at Century Link field? It's a bit weird to call fans delusional for having confidence in Lynch when the notion that Lynch takes a big step back at this point of the season seems pretty out there. If the point was he'll wear down at some point this season, then yeah okay, but I thought this was a discussion about tonight's game. So again the shifting terrain of the convo.

6. The last thing I am worried about is this team's mindset, and far from that being delusional, I believe that's common among those paying even a scintilla of attention to this team, its coach, and its players.

Agree with the Packer points.

I was posting more about some of the homerism that was making some fans say some things that just didn't seem very well founded. I don't think people were being delusional, necessarily, but there has been some unchecked optimism on points that might be legitimate concerns.

I think Marshawn will have a good game, but I think the Packers are going to sell out to stop him. Also, he isn't going to be following our dearly departed MikeRob, and I think that will impact his game more than people are admitting.

As far as the mindset, I think there is always, always potential for players to become overconfident. I think we saw it a bit last year right before the playoffs. Our guys looked like they were expecting to butcher AZ at home, and they got a little bit embarrassed. I think the Superbowl hangover is a real thing, and, while I think our team will handle it better than most, I still think it could be a factor.

 

[Scottemojo]

The honest truth is that we were pretty bad in two back sets last year no matter who the fullback was.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Really the only key points we really need to know is:

Can Aaron Rodger, Eddie Lacey, and a rookie OC overcome the 12th man and the best Defense in the NFL?

Maybe our D isn't as good as a year ago but its still better than it was 2 years ago the first time around. The Packers Offense is better too with a better O-Line other than OC, better run game but they've lost a lot of depth at WR/TE compared to last time: James Jones, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley.

Seahawks have much more experience and much more depth on D than it did two years ago. Everyone who is slated to start was here a year ago on Quinn's No. 1 Defense, and no rookies are expected to see a significant amount of snaps this season.

Can the the Packers Defense stop the Seahawks's Tri-Force of Wilson + Lynch + Harvin?

Packers O vs Seattles D behind the 12th is more of a equalized match-up.

Seattles O vs Packers D is a huge opportunity for the Packers D and even bigger challenge. Last year, Seahawks offense still ranked better than it in 2012 per DVOA despite all the O-Line injuries, Harvin being out, and Rice being hobbled for half a season then losing him for the rest of the 2nd half. Seahawks saw no name players like Kearse, Willson, and Coleman step-up in the absences of key personel. Not only that Wilson basically repeated his 2012 stat-line despite having the worst pass protection in the NFL.

Now the Seahawks have a full complement of WRs including big time speed with Harvin and Richardson. Baldwin is only entering his 4th season with Kearse in his 3rd and they too seemingly took progressive strides in their games . Willson and Coleman have a full season and and a 2nd TC/PS under their belts and understand their roles much better than they did a year ago.

The O-Line is the biggest difference Max Unger is healthy for now when he was going through biceps issues this time last year. Carpenter and Sweezy both have redefined themselves in potentially dominant OG. Okung is the key here and if he can play sub Pro Bowl level and stay healthy.... the O-Line should be dominant. Britt is the weak leak but he's growing every game and even as a rookie, he doesn't seem that much worse than what we had in Giacomini.

Regardless, the Running Game is primed to be its most dominant its been in the Cable regime and with or without the passis -protection improvement Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind. His awarness is better, he's quicker on his feet, in his mind, and with his arm. He's just leaps and bounds better than where he was 2 years ago and he seems to now possess that killer instinct to now dictate the way defenses play as well as pin-point and expose their weakness.


So what it comes down to is... the Packers Offense isn't going to be as Successful vs the Seahawks Defense as the Seahawks Offense is going to be against the Packers Defense.

This match-up is the Broncos-Seahawks Superbowl match-up all over again but Packers have a stronger Run Game with Lacy but a much weaker Run Defense to stop Lynch. And a much better arm in Rodgers... so even if the Packers O can put up 28 points on the Seahawks D, the Seahawks Offense is more primed to win a Shoot-out against that D.

 

[dusktreader]

So what it comes down to is... the Packers Offense isn't going to be as Successful vs the Seahawks Defense as the Seahawks Offense is going to be against the Packers Defense.

I think you nailed it right there. :thirishdrinkers:

 

[-Pete-]

Shout out from Brooklyn.

My initial thoughts:

(R) Britt vs some serious veterans. Russell's naturally looking that way, so even if he gets beat, hopefully we don't give up the sack. Unless there's equal pressure from the blind side.

On the other hand. Rookie Center for GB. That could be a problem for them in the Clink.

Sherm & ET and the rest are serious film guys - I don't think no-huddle, up tempo is a problem. In fact, it might favor us.

Lacy is a concern. I don't expect Beast to have a big day either, but he'll punch it in when needed.

$/.02

Go 'Hawks!

 

[Scottemojo]

The OP overlooked special teams.

 

[dusktreader]

The new illegal contact emphasis is going to hurt our team. WRONG

Our secondary is really, really good at avoiding those penalties. Bobby Wagner dropped the ball, but that's probably mostly due to asking a Mike backer to cover a guy 30+ yards deep.

Shallower depth will hurt the Seahawks. RIGHT

Wow, Burley looked lost out there. Maxwell didn't look great either. I really miss Browner and Thurmond right now, but I have confidence in Maxwell, Lane, Simon, and Burley to get back into the swing of things

The RT situation could be big trouble unless Britt figures it out quick. Somewhat wrong

Britt looked like he did OK out there tonight. He had a lot of help from the guys around him, but there were a total of, what, 2 sacks on Wilson tonight? I think he's going to do fine this year.

Our team's philosophy isn't suddenly going to switch to a pass first offense. Somewhat wrong

It looked like we were using a pass first attack, but we leaned on the running game to put the game away. I'm completely fine with this new mode, because we are still controlling the game from the ground.

Marshawn is probably going to take a step back, but not because of durability or age. WAY WRONG

I have never loved being so wrong before. Lynch looks to be in top form. Wow.

This game is going to be all about discipline. RIGHT

10 points in the game came off of discipline break-downs. We gave them a lot of yards on short check-downs, but controlled the long game. Maxwell needs to pull it together, but I felt like our defense did a great job of staying calm and shutting down Eddie Lacy. Offensive discipline looked great. Russell had a couple of forced passes that looked ugly, but never let it shake him.

For Packer Fans:
Adding an old Julius Peppers is not going to suddenly transform your team's defense to an above average squad. RIGHT

Julius had one good play hooking Wilson's ankle and disrupting the pass. Other than that, he was nothing more than a manageable pass rusher. This guy is definitely not going to transform their defense.

Marshawn is going to punish the Packers' soft middle. RIGHT...SO RIGHT

I. Love. The. Beast. He's unreal. They didn't get a step on him until the 4th quarter, and he still made points. Give that man the rock.

Russell is going to be a nightmare for you because he will have better protection than last year. RIGHT

he had 2 tipped passes throwing inside the pocket, but other than that he looked unflappable. He can make plays all over the place, and defensive coordinators are going to be sweating in the film room watching this guy all year long.

The Seahawks receiving corps is a sleeper unit that is going to surprise you. Kinda RIGHT

I mean, Percy Harvin is in no way a sleeper. Zach Miller had a great night, and, wow, Lockette that was an amazing TD. Baldwin and Kearse didn't do much, but they weren't targeted that much either. Russell seemed to find all he needed tonight to move the ball. As teams tighten down on Percy, our other WR's will show up big on the stat sheet.

The crowd noise at C-Link is a real factor. RIGHT

Of course it was. That was the slowest no-huddle offense I have ever seen.

This game is not about revenge. RIGHT

If this was a preview of the NFCCG, I feel really good about January.

I am so excited to watch this team down the stretch. It's too early to talk about repeating. We'll pick that conversation up again when we are playing in the Divisional Playoff game in January.