Fieldgulls: There’s something wrong with Russell Wilson

[AROS]

Non-injured RW = Elite.

Injured RW = Human.

There. I just saved us all the click.

 

[Year of The Hawk]

Fantasy football is not football. It has nothing to do with the real game of football. IMHO he will be fine. He has been playing hurt. It is hurting the whole offense not just his stats. I don't believe this is an indicator for regression. If he is still making bad plays without big ones after he is healthy then we can talk. Till then its blah blah blah fantasy blah blah blah.

 

[Hawks46]

He's injured, but it's more than just physical limitations that's hurting the offense.

Our deep passing game is gone. Typically, we're in the top 3 in the league in explosive plays. It's a big part of our offense, and enables us to pound away with 3 yard runs a lot more. A team can get 5-6 runs between 2-3 yards in a drive and not be hurt when they uncork a 25 yard pass. Not only is the production itself gone, but it also makes our offense more 1 dimensional and easier to defend. No deep drops. No deep routes. The safeties can sit at a certain level and know they won't be challenged deep and be able to keep everything in front of them. We're making teams' secondaries better by making their jobs easier.

Wilson doesn't have to run, we've seen that last year. But it's the threat of running that keeps teams honest. Some try to spy him. Some try to contain him in the pocket. But when he rolls out and moves around, it ends up holding LBers and that makes it easier to hit those scramble intermediate throws.

Our OL is actually better in pass protection than last year. Our run game sucks, but we're starting to see how much of that hinged on Wilson's mobility as well. A healthy Wilson can produce like last year with deep routes, quick passes and the run game. It's also worth mentioning he probably picks up 2-3 first downs per game with his legs; the little 4 and 5 yard stuff we're not converting now. 2-3 extended drives per game is a big deal.

 

[chris98251]

Wilson is hurt, but you also have a hurt Lockett and Baldwin, two of the guys that make teams pay and are his bail out guys on the scramble drill and deep pass. There isn't one thing causing issues it's a bunch of things that together create a big issue.

 

[canfan]

Outside of a couple of games he's looked like a journeyman QB for the rest.

I don't know why people can't be real about the QB position or RW in general. Look at his stats, his fantasy value, etc....he's been one of the worst out there through seven games. You may not like it, and obviously there are injuries that compound everything and some OL inconsistencies, but it's the truth. He's flat out been bad outside of a couple games.

His stats would look much better if he had sat out the usual 4 to 6 weeks that are normal for a high ankle sprain, or the 4 weeks that are normal for a sprained knee. Have you ever had a high ankle sprain? I couldn't even put weight on my foot for about 72 hours after I did mine and the freaking thing wanted to roll over on me without warning for about 6 months after so I had to wear boots with ankle support just to get through the day. Yeah, you could say there is "something wrong" with Wilson.

 

[pmedic920]

What really sucks is, the "facts" sound like excuses.

At least we know the difference, to Hell with the rest of the football world.

 

[Ozzy]

Outside of a couple of games he's looked like a journeyman QB for the rest.

I don't know why people can't be real about the QB position or RW in general. Look at his stats, his fantasy value, etc....he's been one of the worst out there through seven games. You may not like it, and obviously there are injuries that compound everything and some OL inconsistencies, but it's the truth. He's flat out been bad outside of a couple games.

This kind of take baffles me. I know you're not a Wilson fan from your previous posts but the dude is playing through injuries that possibly no other starter in the league would play through and behind what is possibly the worst line in the league. Of course something is wrong and he looks like a "journeyman". Every other QB in the league would look the same under these curcumstances. :shock:

 

[Hawks46]

There is something wrong with Russell, he's hurt.

It's not rocket science to come to the conclusion that he's not as accurate and missing reads when he's dealing with three major injuries, has no RB and the worst O-line in franchise history giving him less than two seconds to throw the ball.

Thanks Fieldgulls for your amazing insight.

It's unfalsifiable to say that Wilson is missing reads because of his injuries. It's very possible that he's missing them because he's...just missing them.

It is false because there's enough history of Russell being one of the most accurate QB's in NFL history to say it. Before this year his QBR was not just high, it was all time high, same with his accuracy.

So what's changed? O-line? Nope, same crappy O-line. WR's not catching balls or running correct routes? Nope, same dependable skilled WR corp.

Only variable that's changed from prior years is he's injured.

Now has his injury AND the terrible O-line caused him to doubt his reads, hesitate and get happy feet feeling pressure when it isn't there? Yep, but again it was like that in previous years. This year is the only year his athleticism and allusiveness isn't there to create that confidence Russell would normally have to escape and make a play.

I went back and watched those clips on hawkblogger. Montana is right; he's just missing stuff. There was one play where he had Graham running a drag route, WITH the direction Wilson was scrambling. He was WIDE open. Wilson looked and went "nope, not gonna do it" then scrambled around and threw a very low percentage pass to Michael.

There was another play were Baldwin was wide open and Wilson didn't even look that direction, instead forcing it to Kearse. It's almost like he's regressed; he's looking at his first read and if it's not there he doesn't have a plan. He's also looking like he has predetermined where the ball is going pre snap, which you just can't do in the NFL.

I didn't see the game last week. I just assumed he was hobbled, but in watching him run around, he's the most fluid I've seen since before the ankle injury. This jives with Pete saying he didn't get dinged in this game and that the knee brace is to come off soon. The offense is in a funk, and lot of it has to do with Wilson.

It doesn't make me a hater if I criticize Wilson. I'm just not a blind homer that takes the low bearing fruit and blames it on the OL. Wilson had pockets. Wilson had time. Wilson has had 50% better protection this year than at this point last year. He's in a funk and I honestly don't know why

 

[Ozzy]

The problem with highlighting a couple of plays is that EVERY QB in the league misses multiple reads in a game. With all the cat and mouse games and going back and forth you're going to miss some. I would agree that he hasn't been as sharp as he normally is but thats to be expected. He's pressing a little, battling multiple injuries and wondering how the protection is going to be every time he drops back.

 

[OrFan]

I have never liked field gulls. Never click.

Yep, same here.

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

I have never liked field gulls. Never click.

They do vary but some of the articles are worth a read. The one today 'evaluating' Fant, snap by snap, is a decent effort.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Now has his injury AND the terrible O-line caused him to doubt his reads, hesitate and get happy feet feeling pressure when it isn't there?

Actually, the article points out that Wilson wasn't sensing pressure when he should on a couple plays. It's tenuous to attach injuries to that.

He just had a bad game. It's not impossible.

 

[Ozzy]

Montana I think in a vacuum you're right but the pressure issue is something that effects every play even if he's being pressured on that particular play. It's always in the back of his mind and the breakdowns happen so often its hard not anticipating another one around the corner. He's been pressured an incredible amount of times this year, not sure what the number is but when I saw it on twitter it almost defied belief. But I do agree he didn't have a great game for sure. I think he gets back on track this week.

 

[OkieHawk]

Montana I think in a vacuum you're right but the pressure issue is something that effects every play even if he's being pressured on that particular play. It's always in the back of his mind and the breakdowns happen so often its hard not anticipating another one around the corner. He's been pressured an incredible amount of times this year, not sure what the number is but when I saw it on twitter it almost defied belief. But I do agree he didn't have a great game for sure. I think he gets back on track this week.

Last year he was pressured more. Looking at this years numbers it's rather striking how low the sack rate is.

http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson ... areerstats

 

[Ozzy]

I could be wrong but I thought sacks are down but hurries are way up? breakdowns in pass protection are up even if the number stats don't support it. I'll see if I can find the twitter exchange on this topic.

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

I could be wrong but I thought sacks are down but hurries are way up? breakdowns in pass protection are up even if the number stats don't support it. I'll see if I can find the twitter exchange on this topic.

I saw a twitter exchange somewhere that also had hits up.

 

[CodeWarrior]

Average hits per game this year on Russell are down about one. 6.14 hits per game this year vs. 7.125 hits per game last year.

I couldn't find data on hurries.

Source: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...onType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

 

[LeftHandSmoke]

Average hits per game this year on Russell are down about one. 6.14 hits per game this year vs. 7.125 hits per game last year.

I couldn't find data on hurries.

Source: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...onType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go

Thanks. I think the number I saw was posted by a Bills writer, and we all know what mis-leading bustards they can be.. He also claimed that so far this year RW has gotten shorter and fatter.

 

[Ozzy]

It was a Seahawks writer but I can't remember who but I'll look into it in a few. He's not getting hit/sacked but pressured, hurried, plays obstructed are way up. I think. Eye ball test seems to bear this out too.

 

[vin.couve12]

Outside of a couple of games he's looked like a journeyman QB for the rest.

I don't know why people can't be real about the QB position or RW in general. Look at his stats, his fantasy value, etc....he's been one of the worst out there through seven games. You may not like it, and obviously there are injuries that compound everything and some OL inconsistencies, but it's the truth. He's flat out been bad outside of a couple games.

His stats would look much better if he had sat out the usual 4 to 6 weeks that are normal for a high ankle sprain, or the 4 weeks that are normal for a sprained knee. Have you ever had a high ankle sprain? I couldn't even put weight on my foot for about 72 hours after I did mine and the freaking thing wanted to roll over on me without warning for about 6 months after so I had to wear boots with ankle support just to get through the day. Yeah, you could say there is "something wrong" with Wilson.

I played RB. I've had many a high ankle sprain and it severely degrades your mobility.