Fahey says Wilson, not Revis, took Baldwin out of Super Bowl

[misfit]

While sometimes he doesn't pull the trigger due to running a ball control offense, it blows my mind to see russ referred to as just an average quarterback that hasn't "arrived" yet. He continues to put up elite numbers, and is still continuing to get better. Would you trade it for Luck's and Dalton's playoff performances. I just think we're spoiled and people want to nitpick too much.

 

[scutterhawk]

Did anyone forget that Baldwin scored a touchdown on Revis? It seems like everyone did.

Russell has a lot of room to grow. I thought he struggled for most of the first two quarters because he was very clearly pressing. Which I saw all year long.

I like somebody posting the GIFs. I would prefer a GIF that shows the whole field and the whole play from both views, or at least an explanation of what happened on those individual plays in the totality of the play rather than just the lil bit that looks bad. And that last GIF is textbook D by the Pats, not sure how that shows Baldwin beating anyone.

I didn't forget it. It's just that Baldwin could not have been more wide open on that play due to Revis running into the referee. Actually, given that it was Baldwin's only target that day, the play kind of illustrates the point about Wilson being hesitant to target Revis. I agree with you that as a fan base, we need to stop being such absolutists in pretending these players are perfect snowflakes with no room for improvement. Wilson tends to hold onto the ball too long at times, and thereby misses short windows of opportunity on plays like the ones above. That problem is only compounded when he is making a read against a cornerback with the skill and reputation of Revis.

Just curious HN, you don't suppose that Wilson & Baldwin didn't use the Referee's position on the field to their advantage, or do you think that it was just a coincidence?

 

[hawknation2015]

Did anyone forget that Baldwin scored a touchdown on Revis? It seems like everyone did.

Russell has a lot of room to grow. I thought he struggled for most of the first two quarters because he was very clearly pressing. Which I saw all year long.

I like somebody posting the GIFs. I would prefer a GIF that shows the whole field and the whole play from both views, or at least an explanation of what happened on those individual plays in the totality of the play rather than just the lil bit that looks bad. And that last GIF is textbook D by the Pats, not sure how that shows Baldwin beating anyone.

I didn't forget it. It's just that Baldwin could not have been more wide open on that play due to Revis running into the referee. Actually, given that it was Baldwin's only target that day, the play kind of illustrates the point about Wilson being hesitant to target Revis. I agree with you that as a fan base, we need to stop being such absolutists in pretending these players are perfect snowflakes with no room for improvement. Wilson tends to hold onto the ball too long at times, and thereby misses short windows of opportunity on plays like the ones above. That problem is only compounded when he is making a read against a cornerback with the skill and reputation of Revis.

Just curious HN, you don't suppose that Wilson & Baldwin didn't use the Referee's position on the field to their advantage, or do you think that it was just a coincidence?

No, I don't think it is a coincidence when a QB chooses to finally throw the ball to a receiver when he is a wide open.

 

[scutterhawk]

Omg you guys are reaching. How many times has Wilson thrown the ball, deep where the defenders have a better chance to swarm on the ball, when the WRs were in coverage. Hell, Kearse has two defenders on him when he made that acrabatical catch. Sidney Rice in OT against Chicago. I can keep going on and on.

Guys are open more often than not and do not receive the ball. That's when like loud moth WRs like TO and Moss are yelling for the ball.

Russell Wilson has never had a true #1 target that you can trust to make a play on each and every throw. We finally get that.

@TheJimmyGraham

Love Russell and no body in the league is perfect. I'll take never losing more than 5 games in a season, a playoff win in each of his first three seasons, two Superbowl appearances, and 1 ring if it means every now and then he misses on a throw and never throws an interception.

Let's not forget this was against Revised who like Sherman will male you think you arw open and then undercuts the route and its a pick.

Wilson is no dummy.

^THIS^

 

[EntiatHawk]

I think that some took waht said a bit off base. I was really trying to state that there really is not many better than Wilson at this time. Most outside of Seattle would take Luck over Wilson which is fine, then there is Rogers who probably is right now the best in the game. After that you really do not have anyone except those Guys who are on the very wrong side of the age thing.

I personally would not trade Wilson for anyone right now because he fits what we are trying to do.

Here is an answer to those who want to go on with the "Wilson took Baldwin out" theory. In the games the Pack played us, did Rogers take out the whole right side for the packer (Shermans)?

 

[Anthony!]

It's basically true. It's been documented how much he was open and I'm one of the one's who's usually kind of annoyed with Baldwin's little brother syndrome.

Wilson generally plays pretty tight throughout the first 3.5 quarters, however; and when the game is on the line he'll sling it a little more, often with good results. The SB was no different in the former. The latter was a bit of a different story. Both in the poorly placed ball to Kearse that he caught and the poorly placed infamous last throw.

How much of that is Wilson and how much is PC risk aversion despite on offense though, Did it occur that Wilson was told not to throw at Revis unless he was wide wide open?

Add to that is analysis is not to in

depth. He said only this on the subject

First the plays that count

Qualifying Plays

Plays that count:
•Every snap that has the cornerback in man coverage no matter where the ball is thrown.
•The above includes sacks, quarterback scrambles and plays where the defensive back has safety help.
•Every snap in zone coverage where a one-on-one situation is naturally created. For example, a sideline route from a wide receiver who lined up directly across from the cornerback when that cornerback is covering the deep third in Cover-3.

Failed Coverages

The ball does not have to be thrown in the defensive back’s direction for the coverage to fail. This is NOT an analysis of how many completions the cornerback allowed—that can be found elsewhere—this is an analysis of how good his coverage is on any given play.

Failed coverages can come at any point of the route, but it is subjective to where the players are on the field in relation to the quarterback. Typically, defensive backs must be within arm's reach for underneath/intermediate routes. On deeper passes, there is greater leeway given to the defender.

Failed coverages can be subjective. They must be determined by the situation considering the length of the play and other such variables.


Note Subjective

Shutdown

This category is reserved for those plays when receivers would have to make superhuman catches to beat the coverage. The best example of this is when receivers line up wide and try to run down the sideline, but the defensive back gradually guides them toward the sideline, suffocating the space they have in which to catch the football. If a receiver is on the white sideline, he is shut down.



In Position

This is the opposite of a failed coverage. In order to be "In Position," a defensive back has to be in a position to prevent a relatively well-thrown pass to his assignment.


Then this is the analysis
Super Bowl: Seattle Seahawks
•Total qualifying plays: 19
•Failed coverages: 8
•Shutdowns: 0
•In position: 11

Against Randall Cobb during the regular season, Revis showed off his ability to punish more physically talented players who aren't as refined route-runners. In the Super Bowl, he faced the opposite challenge when he trailed Doug Baldwin around the field.

Baldwin was constantly open because Revis couldn't mirror his movement from the slot. The receiver didn't produce because his quarterback, Russell Wilson, played with the same hesitation and fear that was way too common throwing the ball in 2014.

Despite what the statistics suggest, Revis didn't take Baldwin out of the game. Wilson did.


Notice no video or pictures like with others, no explanation at all other than what little he says. What we do not know is what happened on the play. What if on these 8 failed coverages, Wilson went some place that was also open. What if when this guy looked he was open but when Wilson looked in his progressions he was not. What if Baldwin was open at 3 yards but we needed 8. To many variable not explained for this to mean a whole lot. Well except for 1 or 2 blind haters on the board that is. Now do I think Wilson missed Baldwin once or twice yeah, all QBS do, but do I think he missed him a lot, no.

 

[theincrediblesok]

Doesn't really matter to people who will never give Wilson any credit, even if Wilson hit over 30TD and somewhere around 3600-3800 passing yards plus 400-500 rushing yards this year with Graham and all his receivers finally becoming a threat, it will never be because of Wilson, they will just say oh look at how many weapons he got and a good defense. If we don't end up going back to the Superbowl people will blame it on Wilson first even if it's not his fault, and if we do end up going, he won't get any credit for helping them make another one. It's the same old narrative, people's opinion on certain players will never change. I think Wilson is the most criticized player in the NFL by the media and by fans of the Seahawks and other team's fans when it comes to him being a QB. He's not made like the traditional QBs so he gets knocked down for every time he takes a step up.

John Elway and Steve Young had really really good defenses to help them during their years, I know it's a different game back then but they had a team around them to help with them those SB wins. Also Brady and Roethlisberger also had a really good defense to win them some. It takes a team and in this case those franchise QB to help them keep going to the SB.

 

[nbk35zw]

Will this offseason ever end? It just gets more ridiculous with everyday that passes.

@Tical, we already know you think anybody off the street would do just fine. It's a ridiculous and tired opinion that we have all lived through for what? 35 years give or take? But it's your's and you have every right to it even if it's objectively false by actual fact and results in real games.

There are objective provable facts and statistics as to why quarterbacks get ridiculous money and so will Wilson. And in doing so the Seahawks will virtually guarantee first tier relevance for the next ten years. It's just how it works in the current setup and I see nothing to change that anytime soon.

Baldwin is damned good but he's nothing but a second or third receiver outside Seattle. Graham is actual first tier and Lockett is another step in the right direction. If Richardson is recovering as fast as everyone is saying, now you may have something special especially if a couple others progress at all.

My God, MizzouHawkGal. Is that you in the avatar. Good lord. Apologies, but you are gorgeous.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Will this offseason ever end? It just gets more ridiculous with everyday that passes.

@Tical, we already know you think anybody off the street would do just fine. It's a ridiculous and tired opinion that we have all lived through for what? 35 years give or take? But it's your's and you have every right to it even if it's objectively false by actual fact and results in real games.

There are objective provable facts and statistics as to why quarterbacks get ridiculous money and so will Wilson. And in doing so the Seahawks will virtually guarantee first tier relevance for the next ten years. It's just how it works in the current setup and I see nothing to change that anytime soon.

Baldwin is damned good but he's nothing but a second or third receiver outside Seattle. Graham is actual first tier and Lockett is another step in the right direction. If Richardson is recovering as fast as everyone is saying, now you may have something special especially if a couple others progress at all.

My God, MizzouHawkGal. Is that you in the avatar. Good lord. Apologies, but you are gorgeous.

Heh, no that's my Patriot Girl. I'm much shorter.

 

[Mojambo]

My interpretation is that it's caution combined with greed. Most of those routes on which Baldwin is getting open are shorter throws over the middle, and both Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll have proven time and again during their tenure together in Seattle that they prefer the deep throws. They have the statistical value of ten shorter throws, they flip field position, they leave a defense reeling, and Wilson has magnificent accuracy on them. Ability to make a contested redline throw is one of the qualities on which Seattle drafts receivers in the first place. This just isn't a short-throw mentality; Wilson is looking for the deeper stuff.

Good post.

Short, over the middle is just not a priority in Seattle's passing scheme.

We'll see how that changes with Jimmy Graham.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

My interpretation is that it's caution combined with greed. Most of those routes on which Baldwin is getting open are shorter throws over the middle, and both Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll have proven time and again during their tenure together in Seattle that they prefer the deep throws. They have the statistical value of ten shorter throws, they flip field position, they leave a defense reeling, and Wilson has magnificent accuracy on them. Ability to make a contested redline throw is one of the qualities on which Seattle drafts receivers in the first place. This just isn't a short-throw mentality; Wilson is looking for the deeper stuff.

Good post.

Short, over the middle is just not a priority in Seattle's passing scheme.

We'll see how that changes with Jimmy Graham.

Jeez, a poster upthread nailed it. This thread makes my eyes bleed watching the intelligence just get lower and lower.

Seriously, it takes Montana to point out the obvious (that we're similar to the the old Oakland offense passing wise and in mentality/scheme) to be a good post? Wow I guess.

Pete's all about the run, run, run and make the big risk/splash plays in the pass game. Hint for you and all the the other armchair quarterbacks it takes a rare type of quarterback to even try and pull it off. I can list Stabler and maybe Aikman in my generation.

Guess what? They sucked balls compared to the statistical guys but THEY WON. Just like Wilson. Aikman is probably the best comparison to Wilson under the current rules and similar mentality offensively. Both Aikman and Wilson only really pass under high leverage situations the high majority of times. And FINALLY Wilson has a high leverage target like Jason Whitten or Jay Novachek.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Will this offseason ever end? It just gets more ridiculous with everyday that passes.

@Tical, we already know you think anybody off the street would do just fine. It's a ridiculous and tired opinion that we have all lived through for what? 35 years give or take? But it's your's and you have every right to it even if it's objectively false by actual fact and results in real games.

There are objective provable facts and statistics as to why quarterbacks get ridiculous money and so will Wilson. And in doing so the Seahawks will virtually guarantee first tier relevance for the next ten years. It's just how it works in the current setup and I see nothing to change that anytime soon.

Baldwin is damned good but he's nothing but a second or third receiver outside Seattle. Graham is actual first tier and Lockett is another step in the right direction. If Richardson is recovering as fast as everyone is saying, now you may have something special especially if a couple others progress at all.

My God, MizzouHawkGal. Is that you in the avatar. Good lord. Apologies, but you are gorgeous.

Naw man. He looks nothing like that.

Don't ever change Peaches. Stability and other things are always appreciated and needed.

 

[EntiatHawk]

So question number 1, how many QB's, right now, would you take over Wilson? So pay the man.

Two, no matter what you or I think, the play scheme often dictates where the play is to go. Since we often do not know exactly where the play is going it is very hard to say why Wilson did not go to Baldwin more. ( Example is maybe the best QB in the game, Rogers, not targeting WR's in Sherman's Area. Maybe Rogers is just not that good : )

Three, How many teams have won more games than the Seahawks in the last two years? The Seahawks scheme seems to work well, and of all teams in the NFL they are more competitive than anyone, and part of that is playing close to the vest in ways. Hence the fact the Seahawks are not ever getting blown out.

Four, We have never had QB here that has been of the caliber of Wilson so to think we can "plug and play" a QB is mind boggling to me. He is an outlier and creates problems for teams. We really should enjoy what we are seeing and he will get better which should really make other teams squirm.

 

[Tical21]

I call BS on the argument that we don't know the plays and we don't like short passes and yada yada. If your primary option is not open I can guarantee you Wilsob is taught to look at second and third options. He clearly looks at Baldwin several times. Also, you know that they look at several cut-ups throughout the game and at halftime. They saw how open he was and told Russell to keep an eye open for him on the cross or dig. Russell either can't see, was pissed at Baldwin, or was just terribly gunshy.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ That might be some of it, but cut-ups that are overstuffed with Wilson throwing somewhere else on three-step drops, some good coverage by Revis, and some passing lanes that are still clogged by spy backers certainly doesn't make the case that well.

FWIW I don't think Wilson played nearly as well in the SB as his final line suggested, but from where I sit, a whole mess of the "evidence" of him ignoring Baldwin is a dud.

 

[ivotuk]

Meh, I'm pretty sure the Hawks are getting another ring this year anyway. Made a thread about it previously and I still have that same 2013/14 feeling that the loss from the previous year drives them to correct and surpass. Coupled with the talent pool I think it's a pretty safe bet.

The only real concerns I have right now are money. John and Pete will take care of the things that are in their control outside of said money.

Pretty much this.

 

[Anthony!]

So question number 1, how many QB's, right now, would you take over Wilson? So pay the man.

Two, no matter what you or I think, the play scheme often dictates where the play is to go. Since we often do not know exactly where the play is going it is very hard to say why Wilson did not go to Baldwin more. ( Example is maybe the best QB in the game, Rogers, not targeting WR's in Sherman's Area. Maybe Rogers is just not that good : )

Three, How many teams have won more games than the Seahawks in the last two years? The Seahawks scheme seems to work well, and of all teams in the NFL they are more competitive than anyone, and part of that is playing close to the vest in ways. Hence the fact the Seahawks are not ever getting blown out.

Four, We have never had QB here that has been of the caliber of Wilson so to think we can "plug and play" a QB is mind boggling to me. He is an outlier and creates problems for teams. We really should enjoy what we are seeing and he will get better which should really make other teams squirm.

All that is very true and again we do not know what is marching orders were. Maybe PC said do not throw at Revis unless there is no doubt. Also we do not always know down and distance considerations, and most importantly while we can see in video what it looks like form on high, we do not know what it looks like for the QBs perspective. Anyone trying to say anything different like we do know the play, his marching orders, etc are just full of it. reality is we do not know.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

^^^ That might be some of it, but cut-ups that are overstuffed with Wilson throwing somewhere else on three-step drops, some good coverage by Revis, and some passing lanes that are still clogged by spy backers certainly doesn't make the case that well.

FWIW I don't think Wilson played nearly as well in the SB as his final line suggested, but from where I sit, a whole mess of the "evidence" of him ignoring Baldwin is a dud.

Dammit Popeye, you are gonna maek me go watch it again. I do have the ability to look at the game objectively too...if I wanna.









Spelling incorrect on purpose for our resident evil word dictaters. 8)

 

[Hawks46]

I'm not sure why some people are getting so upset. This is actually an older article that came out a few weeks after the SB, and the original subject matter was if Revis was getting over the hill.

There are some throws I don't think pertain to the argument against Wilson...one of them, Wilson's first read was obviously Matthews to his left and he never looked at Baldwin. Typically, really good defenders know where the play is going and many times loosen up coverage knowing it's not going to their guy. This is also a reason why when QBs (and Wilson has done this many times) look to the opposite field, across the grain and flow of the play, they find a guy WIDE open. Almost every player takes plays off in the secondary, even the elite ones.

Another one has a blitzer right in Wilson's face, directly in between himself and Baldwin. Most QBs either don't make that throw, or don't even see it in the face of that untouched blitzer. A 5'11" QB sure as hell isn't making it over a 6'3" player. If Wilson eats it (or evades him, which he's done plenty of times), he lives to fight another play and avoids a very likely turn over.

Thing is, though, Wilson DID miss Baldwin a lot. Maybe he was a bit gun shy, after all....he did just throw 4 picks for the first time in his career the previous game. Teams and players tend to play a lot more conervatively in the Super Bowl. I personally think it's a vision thing.

Look at the moment when Baldwin breaks open. It's breaking over the middle of the field, typically behind a LBer and definately behind the Center. Wilson works the outside of the field more. Obviously, throwing outside the hash marks are a product of designed roll outs, and scrambles as well. Thing is, I think it's vision. I think Russ has a hard time seeing over the middle. Typical throwing lanes in the NFL range about 9-10 o'clock and 2-3 o'clock which coincides nicely with throwing the ball to outside the has marks. I've very rarely seen Wilson take a snap (under center or shotgun) stay in the pocket, and then sling a quicker pass right over the middle. If he hits a deeper pass over the middle, he usually has slid around in the pocket, getting more comfortable with a sight picture.

The guy everyone compares Russ to (and Russ compares himself to) is Drew Brees. The big difference with Brees is that NO designs a lot of plays with moving pockets. They move DLmen around for Brees. The other really big difference is that NO has made a concerted effort to get taller WRs, so Brees can SEE then easier. Colston is 6'4". Graham is 6'5". Look at his other guys: Still catches balls more towards the outside. The kid from Oregon St. is the same, he also catches balls near the line of scrimmage with quick screens and outs. The only consistency I've seen with NO's routes is that they have taller guys outside, who's routes move inside. The smaller, quicker guys are inside, and routes move them outside. Vision.

I like BigskyDoc's post. I think it's smart to not pay Wilson this year until we see what he can do with an elite target. Seriously, what's the point of paying your QB 22 mil + a year when you HAVE to surround him with elite targets for him to perform very well ? Brady, Manning, Rodgers to a certain extent...Rivers....these guys don't need elite guys to make great plays. Like others have said, Wilson won't be able to run around like he does for 10 more years. This crap is serious, and we need to find out now what we have before we sink the franchise into him monetarily. It's not personal.

 

[Anthony!]

I'm not sure why some people are getting so upset. This is actually an older article that came out a few weeks after the SB, and the original subject matter was if Revis was getting over the hill.

There are some throws I don't think pertain to the argument against Wilson...one of them, Wilson's first read was obviously Matthews to his left and he never looked at Baldwin. Typically, really good defenders know where the play is going and many times loosen up coverage knowing it's not going to their guy. This is also a reason why when QBs (and Wilson has done this many times) look to the opposite field, across the grain and flow of the play, they find a guy WIDE open. Almost every player takes plays off in the secondary, even the elite ones.

Another one has a blitzer right in Wilson's face, directly in between himself and Baldwin. Most QBs either don't make that throw, or don't even see it in the face of that untouched blitzer. A 5'11" QB sure as hell isn't making it over a 6'3" player. If Wilson eats it (or evades him, which he's done plenty of times), he lives to fight another play and avoids a very likely turn over.

Thing is, though, Wilson DID miss Baldwin a lot. Maybe he was a bit gun shy, after all....he did just throw 4 picks for the first time in his career the previous game. Teams and players tend to play a lot more conervatively in the Super Bowl. I personally think it's a vision thing.

Look at the moment when Baldwin breaks open. It's breaking over the middle of the field, typically behind a LBer and definately behind the Center. Wilson works the outside of the field more. Obviously, throwing outside the hash marks are a product of designed roll outs, and scrambles as well. Thing is, I think it's vision. I think Russ has a hard time seeing over the middle. Typical throwing lanes in the NFL range about 9-10 o'clock and 2-3 o'clock which coincides nicely with throwing the ball to outside the has marks. I've very rarely seen Wilson take a snap (under center or shotgun) stay in the pocket, and then sling a quicker pass right over the middle. If he hits a deeper pass over the middle, he usually has slid around in the pocket, getting more comfortable with a sight picture.

The guy everyone compares Russ to (and Russ compares himself to) is Drew Brees. The big difference with Brees is that NO designs a lot of plays with moving pockets. They move DLmen around for Brees. The other really big difference is that NO has made a concerted effort to get taller WRs, so Brees can SEE then easier. Colston is 6'4". Graham is 6'5". Look at his other guys: Still catches balls more towards the outside. The kid from Oregon St. is the same, he also catches balls near the line of scrimmage with quick screens and outs. The only consistency I've seen with NO's routes is that they have taller guys outside, who's routes move inside. The smaller, quicker guys are inside, and routes move them outside. Vision.

I like BigskyDoc's post. I think it's smart to not pay Wilson this year until we see what he can do with an elite target. Seriously, what's the point of paying your QB 22 mil + a year when you HAVE to surround him with elite targets for him to perform very well ? Brady, Manning, Rodgers to a certain extent...Rivers....these guys don't need elite guys to make great plays. Like others have said, Wilson won't be able to run around like he does for 10 more years. This crap is serious, and we need to find out now what we have before we sink the franchise into him monetarily. It's not personal.

I was with you till your last paragraph. Lets start with Manning. In Indy he had 2 HOF wrs and 2 HOF or near HOF RB, in Denver he has some one of the best WR corps in the NFL. Brady did you see how he struggled till Gronk got back? Rodgers again a top 10 Wr corps, Rivers a HOF TE. We do not even need to go into the fact that they all have much better pass blocking olines than we do. Now some of this is the QB some is also the WRs. So lets stop with they do not have talent around them, they do. Now you want to blames system I would agree our passing system is not good, as most experts have said our route trees are not good.

AS to him not running around for the next 10 years, I agree at some point they will need to get an oline that can pass block. To help let me show you

Brady oline pass blocking ranked #2
Manning ranked 1
Rodgers ranked 13th
Rivers ranked 17th
Wilson ranked 24th

As you can see Wilson has the worse oline of the group by far.

If the FO is waiting to see how he does with an elite target they are stupid. If he can do what he has done without an elite target, with a bad pass blocking oline then with a great target he should be fine. ot to mention the price will go up. As to vision being an issue I am sure to a point it might be, however I think it has more to do with PC risk aversion offense. The odds of something bad happening is highest over the middle. Look at 2 of the ints against GB. Right of Kearses hands to the DB. IF they were thrown outside the hashes the odds were they go out of bounds not ints. That is the part that all of you keep forgetting this is PC offense and he wants low TOs, he has said they prefer to throw outside the hashes.