Aros' Fearless Prediction Thread (Seahawks @ Eagles)

[fef]

Coming from an Eagles Fan, I'm going to say 24-17 Eagles. With the birds deciding TD coming from special teams or defense. one rushing td for the eagles, one passing. Two passing Td's for the seahawks. One field goal for each.

Then again, I've never been very good at this. And I've had a really bad week. So we'll probably lose 75-3 and set some kind of record for all the wrong reasons.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Haven't really been part of this prediction process but I get strong gut feels from time to time.

I think the Eagles score around 10 but no more than 17 points.

I think the Seahawks will score around as twice as much as the Eagles do because HAWKS will control T.O.P. and dominate the 2nd half of the game.

So,

20-10 Seahawks
26-13 Seahawks
28-14 Seahawks
And so forth.

But locking in the final answer:

Seahawks 30 (3 TDs, 3 FGs)
Eagles 16 (1 TD, 3 FG)

 

[scutterhawk]

27 - 10 Seahawks.

 

[QuahHawk]

34-17 Hawks


7-5 Ytd

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

I think that the Seahawks will continue being pathetic in the red zone, and will squander the short fields that Sanchez gives them. In this game, that will prove fatal because I think the Eagles will put up some points. Hope I'm wrong.

Eagles 17

Hawks 9

Really, Seahawks Offense have faced better Defenses @ KC (15 degrees), vs Cards, and @SF0 (on 4 days rest) and have at least scored a TD. Also, while Eagles have allowed only 7 rush TDs this year this still a step down from teams like KC and Zona.

Eagles have also allowed 24 passing TDs.

Eagle's Defense scoring points allowed Pass/Rush TD ratio is on par with the Broncos and Redskins. Teams Seahawks at least scored 3 TDs, 2 FGs on.

I truly doubt the EAGLES of all teams will hold the Seahawks to under 10 points. 10 of the 12 teams they've played have scored more than 17 points, 9 of them more than 21 points, 7 of them more than 24.

They've held NYG team to 0 points and the Cowboys to 10 in their 2 other games. Seahawks offense isn't very good at times but its not one that gets shutdown completely to the tune of 0-10 points against bottom half defenses.

 

[OrFan]

Hawks - 26

Beagles - 23

I had this score in mind. I scrolled down the page to post it and saw 90210's post. I thought to myself, "dang it" he always is close to me in the standings, and we somehow pick close to the same scores. I thought about changing, but had come to this score prediction using the same formula I use normally, so it will stand,

Stop thinking like me, Chris, it's scary.

 

[Uffda]

17-31 Seahawks

 

[Reaneypark]

Hawks 27, Eagles 24

Defense makes a huge stop late in the 4th quarter after giving up scores early.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Hawks - 26

Beagles - 23

I had this score in mind. I scrolled down the page to post it and saw 90210's post. I thought to myself, "dang it" he always is close to me in the standings, and we somehow pick close to the same scores. I thought about changing, but had come to this score prediction using the same formula I use normally, so it will stand,

Stop thinking like me, Chris, it's scary.

And you're right behind me in 2nd place for the season and I got Hawks winning 26-16 so we aren't far apart either.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Eye on the prize. Seattle 27 Eagles 16

 

[Hawkscanner]

Some numbers for you all (from Football Outsiders) to put in to the hopper and part of what I'm basing my prediction upon ...

Eagles Offense ….
Has scored an average of 31.25 Points/Game this year.

Has scored an average of 25 Points/Game vs. the 3 teams in the Top 10 Defense DVOA they have faced (Jaguars, 49ers, Cardinals)

Has scored an average of 25.2 Points/Game vs. the 5 teams in the Top 14 Defense DVOA they have faced (Jaguars, 49ers, Cardinals, Texans, Packers)

Eagles Defense …
Has allowed an average of 22 Points/Game this year.

has allowed an average of 31.5 Points/Game vs. the only 2 teams in the Top 10 Offense DVOA that they have faced (Packers and Cowboys)

They have faced only 3 teams whose offenses rank in the top 15 in DVOA (Colts, Packers, and Cowboys)

Seahawks Defense …
Has allowed an average of 18.4 Points/Game this year

Has allowed an average of 24 Points/Game vs. the 5 teams in the Top 10 Offense DVOA they have faced (Packers, Chargers, Broncos, Cowboys, and Chiefs)

Seahawks Offense …
Has scored an average of 24.8 Points/Game this year

Has scored an average of 22.5 Points/Game vs. the 4 teams in the Top 10 Defense DVOA they have faced (Broncos, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers)

Seahawks Defense DVOA [7th (-8.0)]
Seahawks Offense DVOA [11th (9.6)]

Eagles Offense DVOA [14th (-0.7)]
Eagles Defense DVOA [5th (-11.9)]

Sources:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

Based upon that, I’m calling it …
Seahawks 27
Eagles 24

 

[Hasselbeck]

I think we win convincingly.

Seahawks 34
Eagles 17

 

[Bigpumpkin]

WOW! Folks are just "all over the place" with their predictions this week. I believe that I have seen the Hawks begin to "gel" in the past two weeks. They now have the "swagger" that they had last year. Hence, I think that the Hawks will win....... 23-13.

 

[Ozzy]

Seahawks 27
Eagles 17


Seahawks do a decent job shutting down the run forcing Sanchez to throw a high volume of passes. This is his first time all year facing a really good man type coverage and he is going to have to be extremely accurate and I just don't see him consistently doing that. At some point Maxwell and Sherman make him pay, I'll predict twice.

 

[OrFan]

Hawks - 26

Beagles - 23

I had this score in mind. I scrolled down the page to post it and saw 90210's post. I thought to myself, "dang it" he always is close to me in the standings, and we somehow pick close to the same scores. I thought about changing, but had come to this score prediction using the same formula I use normally, so it will stand,

Stop thinking like me, Chris, it's scary.

And you're right behind me in 2nd place for the season and I got Hawks winning 26-16 so we aren't far apart either.

Yeah, we have all been bunched up for a while.

Funny how the people who's opinions I agree with on a pretty regular basis tend to pick very close.

 

[NJSeahawk]

Hawks fly high all over da widdle iggles.
28-7*

*refs gift the opposing team their obligatory TD


RTD: 2-0.

 

[Hamhawk]

should be a great game Hawks 27 Eagles 16

 

[etanate]

Sounds like it will be a windy game, which will favor the ground game. I think Seattle's gonna win, 27-16.

 

[eaglesrule]

I want to say 24-20 Seahawks but then I remember how easily San Francisco handled them.. ..

Seahawks 27
Eagles 10

Record YTD 9-3

? In SanFran, and they only won by 5, with the Eagles being stopped at the 1 at the end of the game... is that 'handled'?

 

[Tokadub]

This is an amazing match-up stylistically. The Eagles Offensive philosophy is completely opposite of what teams have been trying to do against us all year.

I think that their fast paced Offense with a ton of pass attempts is a disaster waiting to happen against the Seahawks, it's probably the worst strategy imaginable. Maybe they will try to focus even more on running the ball to make things easier for Sanchez? They are a pretty balanced offense ranked 5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards...

I'm just not sure about their strategy to go fast paced with presumably more of a focus on the running game against us... if we can stop them just a few times early in the game they might realize how much time we are killing with our drives and how their Defense is getting gassed. They could find themselves in a situation where they are forced to throw the ball if we take a 2 score lead and then Sanchez could really make things messy for them.

No matter how I think about the Eagle's Offense I just don't see their strategy working against the Seahawks unless we totally poop the bed like against the Chargers or Dallas which I don't see happening after our last 2 games. To me it seems like the Eagles need to abandon their fast paced style and play a more cautious, methodical, time of possession war.

I am very interested to see if they do slow down their pace (which to me seems like the only way they would have a chance), or if Chip Kelly is so foolishly confident/arrogant that he will try to force his style against us even though it contradicts all common sense against our Defense (for what most likely results in an embarrassing beat down exposing his Offense).

The least amount of points the Eagles have scored this year is 20 against Arizona and Green Bay. They also scored 21 against San Fransisco. I believe the Seahawks Defense in their current form are far superior to any of those 3 teams so I must conclude the Eagles will score less than 20 points.


Common Opponents: Packers, Redskins, Cowboys, Rams, Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers


Points scored against common opponents:

Seahawks = 201 points (25.125 points a game)
Eagles = 237 points (29.625 points a game)


Points allowed against common opponents:

Seahawks = 123 points (15.375 points a game)
Eagles = 196 points (24.5 points a game)


Average score against common opponents:

Seahawks win 25-15 (+10 margin of victory)
Eagles win 30-25 (+5 margin of victory)


Notice how on average the Seahawks score 25 points, that is the exact amount the Eagles allow.

On average the Eagles score 30 points, which is twice as much as the Seahawks allow.


I must conclude that the Seahawks are the better team based on common opponents (among many other factors). The Seahawks margin of victory is twice as big.


According to this common opponent data, mathematically the score would be 25-23 in favor of the Seahawks.

But when factoring in the Seahawks 5 point advantage in margin of victory and converting that into the average outcome of 25-23 you get something along the lines of 28-21, 27-20, 24-17, 23-16 etc...

No matter how you wanna slice this data it seems like Seahawks should win by 7.


However at the end of the day you can't always rely on pure mathematical statistics to determine the outcome of such a complex game. Although any of those scores are probably very good picks I think the way the Seahawks Defense is playing right now and facing a questionable error-prone QB like Sanchez... I think we win by even a larger margin than all my nerdy math stuff would predicate.


FINAL PREDICTION:

Seahawks win 30-17!

Record: 7-4 (missed Oakland prediction)