Why you Run the Damn Ball, even when you're down 24 - 9

ivotuk

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2021, Week 2 versus the Tennessee Titans who were down 24- 9 to the Seahawks. The Titans kept running it and running it and running it. And the Seahawks did a good job vs the run for 3 quarters, but the Titans kept running it anyway. Why? Because defenses wear down, and by the 4th quarter they are tired, and so focused on the run, that they are vulnerable to the pass, and the fatigue allows the Titans RB to break loose in the 4th quarter.

Run the Damn Ball! When you lose your Center and left guard, and your back up Center is (IMHO) is better at the run game than the pass game, and your backup Left Guard is a Right Guard fresh off off IR/Injury, Run the Damn Ball!! When it's obvious that the Rams elite defense is overwhelming your line, and your QB is turning the ball over, Run the Damn Ball!

You have Ken Walker and Zach Charbonet! So Run the Damn Ball!! Here's some info (including a Baldy's Breakdown on the game), the Week 2, 2021 losss to the Titans...who...Ran the Damn Ball!! Specifally, Derrick Henry ran THIRTY FIVE times for 182 yards (one 60 yarder), and 3 touchdowns. Tannehill ran 4 times for 27 yards, and J. McNichols ran once for 3 yards. All in all, the Titans ran FORTY times for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns!


Derrick Henry 2021 Titans

2021: Titans 33, Seahawks 30 (overtime)


The Seahawks allowed over 500 yards of offense to the Titans, with over 200 of those yards coming on the ground. That was because All-Pro running back Derrick Henry, after being bottled up in the first three quarters by Seattle’s defensive front, finally broke loose on a 60-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter on his way to a 182-yard, three touchdown day.

The Seahawks put up 30 points, but they only had the ball for 22:42 of clock time compared to Tennessee’s 42:33 (in an overtime game) and (Seattle) ran 52 plays to the Titans’ 83. (The Titans ran the ball a lot and had close to twice the TOP that Seattle had).


Game Highlights/Lowlights:



Baldy's Breakdowns:



Stats on the week 2, 2021 loss

 

BirdsCommaAngry

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Somewhat recent YouTube video saying the optimal run/pass ratio overall was 54% runs:



(He has a bunch of good vids and turns out he's a Seahawks fan lol.)

The stats he goes off of for that figure were these:
Average yards gained when running vs run defense: 2.8 yards
Averages yards gained when running vs pass defense: 8.41 yards
Average pass yards gained when passing vs pass defense: 5.74 yards
Average pass yards gained when passing vs run defense: 12.44 yards

Going to be a bunch of caveats with each of those numbers. I don't remember where he's getting them from. They'll be league averages and some teams might have somewhat different considerations with how their team performs at certain things. That run vs pass defense stat is going to be heavily conflated by 3rd and long runs that get yards but not first downs.

Overall, still super interesting though. Passing is better but everyone knows this so defenses will always tend to be skewed more toward defending the pass, and this makes running slightly more often a little more optimal. The Seahawks offense is actually the closest to doing that out of every team this season so far.
 

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