kidhawk":1g010pkq said:
The problem with this type of analysis is it leaves out just how difficult it would be to actually have very many more pro bowlers on the same team. Realistically, as long as we have the pro bowlers we have currently on our roster it's going to be tough to add many more. This is due to multiple factors. One is money...you can only afford so much pro bowl level talent and pro bowl rookies aren't that common. Two, New players would need to get more playing time, and with a lot of positions already entrenched with high quality players, it leaves little room. Three, Pro Bowl voting is really only going to allow so many from any given team at any given time.
Yeah, totally understand the logic here, and think it has validity. The place where it fails I think, is that you really can't even (YET) find any high quality starters from the four drafts since he left (not including this last one for obvious reasons). I get that it's hard to supplant pro-bowlers, but that the Seahawks are too dominant across all 22 positions to even draft high quality starters doesn't really hold water. (Again, Clark seems to be a special player as a situational pass rusher so far and I'd guess he'll develop into a high quality starter. Reed might do so too, and so on, but across four years there's just not any guys you can point to who have done it yet).
StoneCold":1g010pkq said:
I think those numbers are high because those were the first drafts of the Pete era and anyone after the first 3 years has to unseat a starter. How many kids in the draft are better than Earl, Kam, Sherm, Wags, Russell. Could be those years were better a better overall draft pool. Not saying the guy doesn't know talent, but...
Yep, kind of a variation on Kidhawk's post. Over the last four years it's not like there's a massive shortage of drafted players (taken after the Hawks' 1st pick of each draft) who are better than all five starting o-lineman, whoever their trying to paste into CB 2 and CB 3 these days, the empty hole at SLB, the fine but nothing special two interior rusher spots, WR 2 and WR 3, and RB. That's 13 positions right there in which there have been jobs for the taking for which draft picks and FA acquisitions over the last four years (not including this draft) have yet to comfortably pan out and lock themselves in as high quality starters.
mrt144":1g010pkq said:
It's hard for me to say the draft is an entire crap shoot except for the most marginal of participants in the draft at GM. There are varying degrees of skill in talent evaluation that justify ongoing employment.
Yeah, we probably just differ on this. I'm of the mind that 32 full time experts backed up 20-30 more experts each and who are all dedicating millions of dollars in resources into an INCREDIBLY high variance parlor game basically more or less turn that game into a game of chance. More than fair to say that there's some elements to it that aren't chance, but IMO we're talking an incredibly slim margin on that.
kidhawk":1g010pkq said:
This is very true...we could also add that pro bowl appearances will add up over time, so appearances vs pro bowl picks is a totally different stat.
Yep. 100% agreed, and what I was thinking of to, and why I said what I did is "not a perfect measurement by any means."
If someone wanted to do it you'd take the class from four years out and pair them with the class from eight years out and then count up each of their pro-bowl appearances in their first four years. Then you do the same for three years and seven years out in their first three years, two years out and six years out in their first two years, and then 1 and 5.
I cut the corner of doing that (it would have taken a TON more time) cuz I think the point is just easily proven with the much quicker counting and math, and well, TBH, because even if I did it people would still object to it for all the reasons (save for this one) they're objecting to the easier to derive number.
Someone should do that though. I'd be curious to see the result (you'd still have two on the right side, but less than 27 on the left, whatever that number is). :2thumbs: