Who would you draft if you had the #1 pick?

[kearly]

It's worth considering that both OL and DB have had some issues in the top ten picks of the past five drafts.

Here are the top 10 picks at OL in the past five drafts:

Brandon Scherff (2015) - Didn't light the world on fire as a rookie.
Ereck Flowers (2015) - Ditto.
Greg Robinson (2014) - Heavily penalized in 2015, heading towards 'bust' status
Jake Matthews (2014) - Brutal rookie year but much improved second season.
Eric Fisher (2013) - Brutal in his first two seasons, but was decent in year 3.
Luke Joeckel (2013) - Underwhelming in first two seasons, but showed subtle improvement in year 3.
Lane Johnson (2013) - Good player, just signed a 6 year contract to stay in Philly long-term. No pro-bowls.
Chance Warmack (2013) - Heading towards bust status.
Matt Kalil (2012) - Looking like a bust.
Tyron Smith (2011) - Stud. Pro-bowler.

Ten players, one pro-bowler in five years. The best of the bunch by far is Tyron Smith, and he wasn't selected until the 9th overall pick. This list may expand to two or three names in time perhaps, but when you look at this list you basically see two players who are worth locking up long term, three guys that look like busts and 5 others who are basically average OL.

Here are the DBs from the top 10 picks of the past five drafts

None taken in the top ten picks of 2015.
Justin Gilbert (2014) - Draft bust
Dee Milliner (2013) - Draft bust
Mo Claiborne (2012) - Draft bust
Mark Barron (2012) - Became a good player after changing positions to LB. Just got paid a lot of money.
Stephon Gilmore (2012) - Had his 5th year option picked up for $11 million, about to get huge extension.
Patrick Peterson (2011) - A highly paid all-pro, his exact caliber is subject of debate.

Looking at these two lists, the DB group has a higher chance to outright bust but a significantly higher chance to hit. The OL group is full of disappointments who didn't live up to their draft stock, but were still viable NFL players.

 

[hawkfan68]

#1 this year? It would be tough, but either Ramsey, who's going to be a stud, or you take Tunsill. The main issue with Ramsey though is if he's a corner or safety. If he's the next Sherman, you can't go wrong having a lock down corner, but is a safety worth the top pick? LT is a serious hole you don't want to have in your team, so filling that is also huge.

As for Martin, you have to gamble and hope he's around at the beginning of round 2.

Drafting a corner with the first pick in a draft is an absolutely waste especially for an expansion team. You can't build a championship team around a corner.

QB is the most important position on a team. While the QBs in this draft are good, they aren't a Peyton Manning or even Andrew Luck. None are worth the #1 pick. That's why I would trade down if I had the #1 pick.

 

[McGruff]

Assume trading down is not an option. It's too easy to say trade down, and too hard to actually do it.

I can't see spending a 1 on any of these qbs. I don't see that Uber explosive pass rusher that would be 2nd on my list. So third option is a left tackle, and Tunsil is really excellent.

 

[sc85sis]

Build the lines first. Get a guy like T-Jack as your short-term starter for a year or two.

 

[Tical21]

Certainly two of the most important positions. You're right, there would be some fun research to be done to see playoff success of teams with a good LT vs. teams with a stud corner. Sherm, Deion, Revis, etc., all helped their teams win big, but so did Walt, Pace, Ogden and those guys. I like Ramsey a lot. Of course there is a need component here too, if you already have a stud at one of the positions, you take the other.

However, in a vacuum, you take the LT if there is a highly rated one, and this year there is. Wow, Tunsil is just so fluid. His WR calves scare me a little, but he's a Walter Jones type athlete. You take the tackle every single time because his primary job isn't to win games. He has a much more important role. Line one of his job description is to protect your quarterback. In this case, it happens to be a young, promising looking QB that you just spent the #2 pick on a year ago. You protect that guy. You don't have to take corners really high, but a lot of the great LT's were pretty high picks. Those guys just don't come along often, and when you have that young QB, I don't think you can consider passing up an awesome looking left tackle.

 

[kearly]

Drafting a corner with the first pick in a draft is an absolutely waste especially for an expansion team. You can't build a championship team around a corner.

QB is the most important position on a team. While the QBs in this draft are good, they aren't a Peyton Manning or even Andrew Luck. None are worth the #1 pick. That's why I would trade down if I had the #1 pick.

Seattle drafted Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Byron Maxwell and Richard Sherman before they drafted Russell Wilson. They also acquired Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, and Bobby Wagner before selecting a franchise QB.

Denver just won the SB with two all-pro caliber CBs and a QB who was dead last in passer rating.

As strange as it sounds, nothing correlates more towards winning SBs than building an elite pass defense. Not even QB play factors as heavily, especially in the postseason where conditions are harsher and coaches are more conservative. You look at SB winners and you see a lot of teams that won with defense, specifically with pass defense.

 

[kearly]

Certainly two of the most important positions. You're right, there would be some fun research to be done to see playoff success of teams with a good LT vs. teams with a stud corner. Sherm, Deion, Revis, etc., all helped their teams win big, but so did Walt, Pace, Ogden and those guys. I like Ramsey a lot. Of course there is a need component here too, if you already have a stud at one of the positions, you take the other.

However, in a vacuum, you take the LT if there is a highly rated one, and this year there is. Wow, Tunsil is just so fluid. His WR calves scare me a little, but he's a Walter Jones type athlete. You take the tackle every single time because his primary job isn't to win games. He has a much more important role. Line one of his job description is to protect your quarterback. In this case, it happens to be a young, promising looking QB that you just spent the #2 pick on a year ago. You protect that guy. You don't have to take corners really high, but a lot of the great LT's were pretty high picks. Those guys just don't come along often, and when you have that young QB, I don't think you can consider passing up an awesome looking left tackle.

I mentioned this in another thread, but I looked at the past six SB winners (PC/JS have been in Seattle for six seasons), and then averaged their OL and pass defense ratings (football outsiders). The result was that SB champions had average offensive lines and elite pass defenses. Three of the past six winners ranked #1 in pass D. Of all the categories I looked at, even including QBs, pass defense was the highest average among the six champions.

Regarding Tunsil, I would absolutely take him if I felt he was a generational talent like Walter Jones for the simple pact that players like that are extremely rare. Physically, he's got the body to be another Walt. Or, he could be another Greg Robinson. I think the best comparison for me is Trent Williams or maybe even Russell Okung when he was a prospect.

With Ramsey I think he is best corner prospect since Revis, so I'd have to really love Tunsil to pass on him.

 

[kearly]

Another way to look at this pick is to look at their comparables. Who would you rather have from this list:

Richard Sherman (Ramsey)
Trent Williams (Tunsil)
Matt Ryan (Goff)
Blake Bortles (Wentz)

 

[ivotuk]

Ramsey.

Laremy Tunsil looks really good, but for some reason he reminds me of Jason Smith, #2 overall pick of the Rams.

I was really sold on Jason Smith, not sure why he busted, but he did.

 

[Hawks46]

I'm probably biased by the fact that the remaining LT options at the first pick in the 2nd round are unusually good prospects. Most years a LT like Tunsil would be a no-brainer, but I lean a bit more towards Ramsey because I love the OL options at picks #32 and #64.

In a vacuum, a top LT vs. a top corner would be an interesting debate. The highest paid OL in the NFL is currently making $13.7m APY. There are currently five corners making more money than the highest paid OL. NFL GMs generally value corners more than they do offensive tackles, at least financially speaking. It is pretty close though, and some teams may value tackles more. (Seattle is obviously one of the teams that values corners more.)

You make a very valid argument.

I would target a LT in the early second rounds. If I was starting a franchise out, I'm assuming I have a lot of holes. I'd trade back and go after that LT later on. Especially in this draft where there's no clear cut guy that I'd have to have.

You always want to say QB, but you could sign a guy like Fitzpatrick who has NFL experience and is a leader.

 

[HawkGA]

Trade it to TN for Mariota and then trade Mariota to Chip Kelly for his soul.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Trade it to TN for Mariota and then trade Mariota to Chip Kelly for his soul.

I literally LOL'd.

 

[purpleneer]

I'd probably look to trade down. There isn't a clear cut #1 pick; the gap between #1 choice and 15 is very minimal.

If I were starting a franchise from scratch I'd be looking to trade down as well. Here's the problem (and it's been the problem for years now) -- unless you have an off the charts, blow your doors off, future HOF QB sitting there in the catbird seat at #1 no team is going to want to jump up there to the #1 pick.

Seriously, go back and look at the draft over the last several years. How many times has it actually happened?


Anyway, the point is that unless a player is deemed as VERY special by a franchise, teams have generally been unwilling to jump up to the #1 spot because it is so darned costly to do so. And that point is painfully obvious, as it's happened only 6 times in the last 25 NFL Drafts.

I'm not saying that the Titans WON'T be successful in trading it away this year (everyone knows they desperately want to do so) -- it's just that this draft doesn't look to me like one that's set up for them to be able to do that. Therefore, I believe in the end they'll be stuck with going BPA and selecting Laremy Tunsil with the #1 Pick (which isn't a bad thing after all).

Certainly a notable observation, but the thing is that the value of the #1 pick varies a lot, and the smart move is to consider this when deciding on the trade value "price" of it. There's been a number of times, particularly when the bastardized market "made" teams give such stupid contracts to the top picks, when it would have still made sense to take whatever the best offer was despite being way less than if there were a consensus top pick. Teams are so afraid of looking bad to their fans by taking less in a trade down, or not taking a more hardline negotiating position with a high pick, that they have repeatedly made bad decisions that are easy to see as bad. There is absolutely no way I would have taken Aaron Curry at #4 and given anywhere near the contract he got when there was a team (the Jets) trying hard to trade up for Sanchez. As far down as that was, it was easy to see that #4 that year was more of a liability than an asset.
In general, if there's any interest at all from someone, and there usually is on some level, some team might be willing to do something and get to say they got a "steal" in trade value. Tennessee should absolutely consider all offers with at least some perspective of "if I had what they are offering, would I make the trade the other way?" There's always different positions, and some team (like Atlanta with Julio) might feel that one particular guy is the missing piece, or have a higher opinion of a QB (Jets - Sanchez). Treating it the same as you would with a Vick or Manning available would be a mistake.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

As strange as it sounds, nothing correlates more towards winning SBs than building an elite pass defense. Not even QB play factors as heavily, especially in the postseason where conditions are harsher and coaches are more conservative. You look at SB winners and you see a lot of teams that won with defense, specifically with pass defense.

Truth. I'm really digging your emphasis and importance of the defensive backfield in recent threads. This one as well. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=124347 Excellent stuff, man. Looking forward to more of what you have to say leading up to and after the draft. Have you given more insight into how the Hawks might return to a dominant level in the secondary?

 

[Tical21]

I think we're kind of arguing two somewhat different points. I'm not saying LT is more crucial to winning than CB is. I'm saying that A.) you're not going to win with a bad QB, and a LT can be a huge factor in keeping a QB alive long enough to improve. B.) It is easier to get a successful corner other ways than it is to get a successful LT in any way besides taking one really early in a draft.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

B.) It is easier to get a successful corner other ways than it is to get a successful LT in any way besides taking one really early in a draft.

I don't necessarily agree with this.

Corners and Tackles are different kinds of Athletes that require different skill sets to play either position at a high level. There could be many talking points. For example, the amount of real estate that a DB has to cover vs. faster, elite athletes. The amount of time a Tackle has to be able to do his job dealing with a speed edge rusher in a closer range to the QB, etc.
Just think about the teams that went out and got players like Deion Sanders, or Darrell Revis to shore up their Defense and give them that ONE Athlete that ultimately made the difference. OL and DB's work as a until, but DB's tend to be more exposed out on Islands whereas the Line can scheme continually to work together. Which Athletes are "easier" to find? Man, I gotta say it's probably "easier" to coach up decent talent on the Line to do the job with the unit rather than try to coach up a guy who is "out of his league" out in all that space.

It's certainly possible to find an elite Corner later in the draft (Sherman), but not highly probable year after year.

 

[Ozzy]

Another way to look at this pick is to look at their comparables. Who would you rather have from this list:

Richard Sherman (Ramsey)
Trent Williams (Tunsil)
Matt Ryan (Goff)
Blake Bortles (Wentz)

Then it's Ramsey for me.

 

[kearly]

Have you given more insight into how the Hawks might return to a dominant level in the secondary?

Scottemojo made a compelling observation that the Seahawks defense is being held back by Kris Richard's soft zones. It was also an issue for Gus Bradley. Not sure if that gets fixed, but if it does, that change alone could make Seattle's pass D fearsome again, as their talent is still elite level.

 

[kearly]

It is easier to get a successful corner other ways than it is to get a successful LT in any way besides taking one really early in a draft.

That's a very good point. You might have just changed my mind.

HOF corners like Revis and Sanders hit UFA. Many lesser pro-bowl DBs hit UFA all the time. Perhaps the real reason why corners are paid more than tackles is simply because they have studs hitting the market and establishing sky high prices, which simply doesn't happen with the likes of Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas, or Trent Williams.

If a team called Seattle and made offers for Richard Sherman, Seattle would listen. If Seattle had Walter Jones in his prime under contract, you'd have to move Heaven and Earth to pry him away from Seattle in a trade simply due to the rarity of such a player.

If a team insisted on elite LT play, rather than just good LT play, then Tunsil is definitely the right pick for that kind of team.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

Have you given more insight into how the Hawks might return to a dominant level in the secondary?

Scottemojo made a compelling observation that the Seahawks defense is being held back by Kris Richard's soft zones. It was also an issue for Gus Bradley. Not sure if that gets fixed, but if it does, that change alone could make Seattle's pass D fearsome again, as their talent is still elite level.

Seems more complicated than just fixing it with a player or two. Hopefully they see it on film and recognize it as such. The eye in the sky don't lie.