It's not a must-win by any means. Last year we started 3-3. This would be a big win for home-field in the NFC though. But I still think we can win the division if we start 2-3 and the Cards move to 5-0. Just look at the Cards upcoming schedule, it gets real tough after week 5:
@Detroit
@Pittsburgh
vs Baltimore
@ Cleveland
BYE
@ Seattle
vs Cincinnati
@San Francisco
@ St Louis
6 of their next 8 games are on the road. 3 of those road games will be on the east coast (west coast team playing a 10am game). AZ gets a bit of a break with Big Ben being out, but Pitt is still a good team. After the bye week, those 4 games are brutal: 3 divisonal road games plus a home game against a good Bengals team. I know SF and STL hasn't looked good this year, but everyone knows road games in the division aren't easy. I think they go 3-5 on this 8 game stint
@Detroit...they don't really scare anyone at home, but I give them a 35-40% chance to win that game, based upon the health of both teams. Cards are looking pretty good.
@ Pitt....that's too easy. Roethlisburger will be out. Cards win.
vs. Baltimore. Ravens just seem off this year. They're not good, they took a Vick led Stealers team to OT to beat them, and it took 2 easy missed FG's to do that.
@ Cleveland. Really ?
I think after their bye their schedule looks brutal. @Seattle, Cincy, @ SF and @ STL (who they just lost to at home) could very realistically be 1-3 for the Cards.
As for our Cincy game, I'm reserving judgement until after the Mon night game. We're typically strong in Prime Time, and if we don't easily handle a LIons team that is very league average, at home, then I'm not too confident we go on the road to Cincy and beat them. They're rolling right now and even Dalton is looking pretty good.